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ABSTRACT Bipolar disorder’s (BD) clinical heterogeneity has an unresolved genetic basis. We meta-analyzed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 16 BD subphenotypes in 226,032 individuals from 57 cohorts (38,022 cases); 10 advanced to multivariate and multi-trait analyses. Four factors (compulsive, psychotic, dysregulated, internalizing) explained 82.8% of shared genetic variance. BD1 and BD2 loaded on distinct factors despite a high genetic correlation; 87.0% of common-factor loci were significant in neither subtype. Unipolar mania aligned with psychosis over internalizing, and was distinguishable from BD1, and rapid cycling showed heritable cross-domain liability. We identified 356 risk loci, 158 novel, including the first univariate-GWAS associations for psychosis, unipolar mania, rapid cycling and schizoaffective disorder—and 249 credible genes (89 high-confidence), 12 with approved-drug or clinical-phase annotations. Cell-type association showed a midbrain dopaminergic–GABAergic gradient along the psychotic factor. BD’s genetic architecture appears hierarchical—a general liability resolving into dimensions of course and comorbidity beyond diagnostic subtypes.

OBJECTIVE In many individuals, type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains poorly controlled despite taking multiple glucose-lowering therapies. Several studies have demonstrated that endogenous hypercortisolism is prevalent among these individuals. We tested whether cortisol-directed therapy improves their glycemic control. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In this prospective, multicenter, double-blind study, 136 individuals with T2D (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] 7.5%–11.5% [58–102 mmol/mol] on multiple medications) and hypercortisolism (by dexamethasone suppression test) were randomized 2:1 to the glucocorticoid receptor antagonist mifepristone (300–900 mg once daily; n = 91) or placebo (n = 45) for 24 weeks, with stratification by presence/absence of an adrenal imaging abnormality. The primary end point was the change in HbA1c. Secondary end points included changes in glucose-lowering medications, weight, and waist circumference and safety. RESULTS Mean baseline HbA1c in the study cohort was 8.55% (69.9 mmol/mol). At 24 weeks, the least squares mean (LSM) difference from placebo in HbA1c was −1.32% (95% CI −1.81 to −0.83; P < 0.001). Participants receiving mifepristone experienced reductions in body weight and waist circumference (placebo-adjusted LSM differences of −5.12 kg [95% CI −8.20 to −2.03] and −5.1 cm [−8.23 to −1.99], respectively). Of participants on mifepristone, 46% discontinued therapy, compared with 18% on placebo. Adverse events with mifepristone (>10% of participants) included hypokalemia, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, headache, peripheral edema, diarrhea, and dizziness, consistent with mifepristone’s known tolerability profile. Increases in blood pressure also occurred. CONCLUSIONS In individuals with inadequately controlled T2D and hypercortisolism, cortisol-directed medical therapy with mifepristone reduced HbA1c, with a manageable tolerability profile.

Importance Tau positron emission tomography (PET) allows in vivo detection of neurofibrillary tangles, a core neuropathologic feature of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective To provide estimates of the frequency of tau PET positivity and its associated risk of clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants Longitudinal study using data pooled from 21 cohorts, comprising a convenience sample of 6514 participants from 13 countries, collected between January 2013 and June 2024. Cognitively unimpaired individuals and patients with a clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD dementia, or other neurodegenerative disorders were included. Exposures Tau PET with flortaucipir F 18, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and clinical examinations. Tau PET scans were visually rated as positive according to a US Food and Drug Administration– and European Medicines Agency–approved method, designed to indicate the presence of advanced neurofibrillary tangle pathology (Braak stages V-VI). Main Outcomes and Measures Frequency of tau PET positivity and absolute risk of clinical progression (eg, progression to MCI or dementia). Results Among the 6514 participants (mean age, 69.5 years; 50.5% female), median follow-up time ranged from 1.5 to 4.0 years. Of 3487 cognitively unimpaired participants, 349 (9.8%) were tau PET positive; the estimated frequency of tau PET positivity was less than 1% in those aged younger than 50 years, and increased from 3% (95% CI, 2%-4%) at 60 years to 19% (95% CI, 16%-24%) at 90 years. Tau PET positivity frequency estimates increased across MCI and AD dementia clinical diagnoses (43% [95% CI, 41%-46%] and 79% [95% CI, 77%-82%] at 75 years, respectively). Most tau PET–positive individuals (92%) were also Aβ PET positive. Cognitively unimpaired participants who were positive for both Aβ PET and tau PET had a higher absolute risk of progression to MCI or dementia over the following 5 years (57% [95% CI, 45%-71%]) compared with both Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–negative (17% [95% CI, 13%-22%]) and Aβ PET–negative/tau PET–negative (6% [95% CI, 5%-8%]) individuals. Among participants with MCI at the time of the tau PET scan, an Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–positive profile was associated with a 5-year absolute risk of progression to dementia of 70% (95% CI, 59%-81%). Conclusions and Relevance In a large convenience sample, a positive tau PET scan occurred at a nonnegligible rate among cognitively unimpaired individuals, and the combination of Aβ PET positivity and tau PET positivity was associated with a high risk of clinical progression in both preclinical and symptomatic stages of AD. These findings underscore the potential of tau PET as a biomarker for staging AD pathology.

e13622 Background: Chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy has revolutionized treatment of hematologic malignancies; however, severe toxicities like cytokine release syndrome (CRS) remain a limitation to broader utilization. Using a large dataset of patients treated with CAR-T, we developed a machine learning (ML) model leveraging multi-model patient characteristics to predict the risk of CRS onset with clinically meaningful lead times. Methods: A prospectively maintained dataset of CAR-T patients treated at Mayo Clinic was used. Baseline disease/patients characteristics, labs, ECG, echocardiogram, and vital signs (including data from remote patient monitoring program) were collected. A 24-hour rolling window was used to generate daily averages, maximum, minimum, and deltas for each parameter. ECG and echocardiogram data were forward-imputed; vital signs and labs were not imputed. Each day-post-infusion served as a potential event (CRS onset vs. no CRS). A gradient boosting classifier was trained and tested on a subset of patients (n = 351) using 1,000 bootstrap iterations, evaluating 24-, 48-, and 72-hour lead times. Shapley-based feature importance guided simplification to an 11-feature model, externally validated on an independent cohort (n = 51). Models’ performance assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: A total of 402 patients treated with CAR-T were examined. Median age was 64 years and 36% were female. Primary diagnosis was B-cell lymphoma (n = 240) or multiple myeloma (n = 162). A total of 226,332 vital sign measurements and 372,871 lab values, as well as ECG and echocardiogram data, were collected for 30 days post-infusion. Overall, 79.8% of patients experienced CRS within 30 days. The full ML model demonstrated AUCs of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.93), 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.88), and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.87) for 24-, 48-, and 72-hour predictions of CRS, respectively. Including “day of CRS onset post CAR-T” as a feature improved the 72-hour AUC to 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.90). A model restricted to vital signs alone showed AUCs of 0.88, 0.75, and 0.71 for 24-, 48-, and 72-hour horizons. An 11-feature model—focusing on temperature, blood pressure, fibrinogen, CRP, serum sodium level, QRS interval, and lymphocyte counts—maintained high accuracy at 24 hours (AUC 0.90, 95% CI 0.86–0.93) and was validated externally using an independent dataset with an AUC of 0.92. Conclusions: Our ML model provides a reliable approach for predicting if/when CRS will occur, with up to three days of lead time before clinical manifestation, offering an opportunity for proactive management. The robust performance of a parsimonious 11-feature model supports practical adoption across clinical settings and real-time risk stratification to enhance patient safety. Prospective validation and integration into clinical workflows will be critical to translating these findings into practice.

e12562 Background: Previous research has suggested that breast cancer (BC) diagnosed during pregnancy or the postpartum period exhibits more aggressive clinical features, possibly due to pregnancy-related hormonal changes, immune modulation, and alterations in the mammary microenvironment compared to nulligravid or women many years out from pregnancy. Emerging data have demonstrated potential worse outcomes for patients (pts) diagnosed in post-partum. This study evaluated the influence of timing of diagnosis in relation to pregnancy history and recency of childbirth on long-term outcomes in a modern cohort of young pts with early-stage BC. Methods: Pts with stage I–III BC age < 40y in the prospective Young Women’s Breast Cancer Study (YWBCS) were categorized at diagnosis as Nulligravid (no prior pregnancy), Nulliparous (prior pregnancy without live birth), Currently Pregnant, or Parous (subdivided by time since last childbirth: within 5 years [≤ 5y PP], and 5–10 years postpartum [5–10y PP]). Baseline characteristics and outcomes were compared across BC subtypes (estrogen receptor+/HER2- [ER+/HER2-], HER2+, and triple-negative BC [TNBC]). Prognostic analyses for distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) used Cox models. Results: 859 pts were included, 257 (30%) nulligravid, 50 (6%) nulliparous, 37 (4%) pregnant, and 515 (60%) parous (348 [68%] were ≤5y PP, and 167 [32%] were 5–10y PP). Median follow-up was 133 (6–209) months. Median age at diagnosis was lower in nulligravid pts (33 vs. 35–38 years); T1 tumors were most common in pts >5y PP (62%), and N0 status was highest in nulligravid pts (64%) (all p < 0.0001). Pregnant pts had higher rates of TNBC (27%), and T3 tumors (14%), N1 status, N1 (41%), and Grade 3 (81%) tumors compared to other groups (all p < 0.0001). Overall, only tumor size (T2-T4 vs T1, HR 2.03; 95% CI 1.37–3.03) and nodal status (N1 vs N0, HR 2.22; 1.48–3.34; N2/3 vs N0, HR 3.23; 1.96-5.33) were independently associated with worse DRFS; pregnancy history was not: nulligravid + nulliparous pts had no significant differences in DRFS compared to Pregnant (HR 1.46; 0.75–2.86), Parous <5y PP (HR 0.86; 0.58–1.26), and Parous 5–10y PP (HR 0.89; 0.54–1.48). Subgroup analyses by BC subtype (Table) and sensitivity analyses (excluding currently pregnant pts or separating nulligravid and nulliparous pts) demonstrated no significant associations between pregnancy history and DRFS. Conclusions: In this cohort study of very young patients with early breast cancer with contemporary treatment including management of breast cancer during pregnancy, pregnancy history and recency of pregnancy were not independent predictors of long-term disease outcomes. DRFS results by subgroup. Pregnancy Group N (%) HR (95% CI) ER+/HER2- Nulligravid + Nulliparous 173 (38.1) Ref Pregnant 16 (3.5) 0.93 (0.32–2.70) Parous ≤5y PP 177 (39.0) 0.77 (0.45–1.29) Parous 5–10y PP 88 (19.4) 0.78 (0.39–1.53) HER2+ Nulligravid + Nulliparous 77 (30.8) Ref Pregnant 11 (4.4) 3.27 (0.80–13.38) Parous ≤5y PP 113 (45.2) 1.50 (0.60–3.75) Parous 5–10y PP 49 (19.6) 1.45 (0.45–4.66) TNBC Nulligravid + Nulliparous 56 (36.8) Ref Pregnant 10 (6.6) 1.92 (0.61–6.09) Parous ≤5y PP 57 (37.5) 0.68 (0.28–1.63) Parous 5–10y PP 29 (19.1) 1.16 (0.43–3.14)

Importance Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) represents the third most common stroke type with unique etiologies, risk factors, diagnostics, and treatments. Nevertheless, epidemiological studies often cluster SAH with other stroke types leaving its distinct burden estimates obscure. Objective To estimate the worldwide burden of SAH. Design, Setting, and Participants Based on the repeated cross-sectional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the global burden of SAH in 1990 to 2021 was estimated. Moreover, the SAH burden was compared with other diseases, and its associations with 14 individual risk factors were investigated with available data in the GBD 2021 study. The GBD study included the burden estimates of nontraumatic SAH among all ages in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. Exposures SAH and 14 modifiable risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of SAH incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as well as risk factor–specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results In 2021, the global age-standardized SAH incidence was 8.3 (95% UI, 7.3-9.5), prevalence was 92.2 (95% UI, 84.1-100.6), mortality was 4.2 (95% UI, 3.7-4.8), and DALY rate was 125.2 (95% UI, 110.5-142.6) per 100 000 people. The highest burden estimates were found in Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and high-income Asia Pacific. Although the absolute number of SAH cases increased, especially in regions with a low sociodemographic index, all age-standardized burden rates decreased between 1990 and 2021: the incidence by 28.8% (95% UI, 25.7%-31.6%), prevalence by 16.1% (95% UI, 14.8%-17.7%), mortality by 56.1% (95% UI, 40.7%-64.3%), and DALY rate by 54.6% (95% UI, 42.8%-61.9%). Of 300 diseases, SAH ranked as the 36th most common cause of death and 59th most common cause of DALY in the world. Of all worldwide SAH-related DALYs, 71.6% (95% UI, 63.8%-78.6%) were associated with the 14 modeled risk factors of which high systolic blood pressure (population attributable fraction [PAF] = 51.6%; 95% UI, 38.0%-62.6%) and smoking (PAF = 14.4%; 95% UI, 12.4%-16.5%) had the highest attribution. Conclusions and Relevance Although the global age-standardized burden rates of SAH more than halved over the last 3 decades, SAH remained one of the most common cardiovascular and neurological causes of death and disabilities in the world, with increasing absolute case numbers. These findings suggest evidence for the potential health benefits of proactive public health planning and resource allocation toward the prevention of SAH.

Abstract Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and pulmonary emphysema were the third-leading cause of death globally in 2019. Besides alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, emphysema lacks disease-modifying medications due to its heterogeneity and there remains a need to further investigate emphysema subtypes to advance its diagnosis and treatment. Recent unsupervised machine learning of the texture and anatomical location of emphysema on computed tomography (CT) images of the lung defined six quantitative CT emphysema subtypes uniquely associated with specific gene variants, environmental exposures, symptoms, physiology and clinical events. We aim to identify associations of plasma proteins with each CT emphysema subtype cross-sectionally in a multi-ethnic general population sample. MESA is a prospective cohort study that recruited 6,814 participants from six communities who self-identified as White, Black, Hispanic, or Asian race/ethnicity, ages 45-84 years old and free of clinical cardiovascular disease in 2000-02. The MESA Lung Study performed CT scans among 3,137 participants in 2010-12, which were labeled with previously described (PMID: 37268414) CT emphysema subtypes. Proteomics was assessed using SomaScan version 4.1 assay (7,596 plasma proteins). Linear regression models were adjusted for age, height, weight, sex, race, educational attainment, smoking status, pack years, urine cotinine level, body-mass index (BMI), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CT scanner manufacturer and other CT emphysema subtypes. Results were adjusted to reflect a False Discovery Rate (FDR) p-value of less than 5% using the Benjamini-Hochberg method. Among 2,343 participants with both CT and proteomic data (mean age 69.5 years, 52.3% women, 23.7% with COPD), we identified statistically significant associations of proteins with the vanishing lung subtype (42 proteins; top hit Natural cytotoxicity triggering receptor 3 ligand 1, q = 2.9[asterisk]10-9), restrictive combined pulmonary fibrosis/emphysema (CPFE) subtype (11 proteins; top hit Integrin alpha-2/b1, q=1.0[asterisk]10-5), the combined bronchitis-apical emphysema subtype (9 proteins; top hit Desmoglein-2, q=8.8[asterisk]10-13), and the diffuse emphysema subtype (4 proteins; top hit Pulmonary surfactant-associated protein D, q=5.7[asterisk]10-3). No significant proteins were associated with the obstructive CPFE or senile subtypes after FDR correction. Most proteins were uniquely associated with one CT emphysema subtype, while a few proteins were associated with more than one subtype. This study identified specific proteins for different CT emphysema subtypes, many of which have been related less specifically to emphysema, including pulmonary surfactant production, anti-inflammatory pathways, and mitochondrial deregulation, amongst others. Validation of these proteomic associations can provide insight into further pathway assessment, clinical biomarker discovery, and targeted prevention of emphysema in the general population.

OBJECTIVE Despite the use of multiple glucose-lowering medications, glycemic targets are not met in a significant fraction of people with type 2 diabetes. In this prospective, observational study we assessed the prevalence of hypercortisolism, a potential contributing factor to inadequate glucose control. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Individuals with type 2 diabetes and HbA1c 7.5%–11.5% (58–102 mmol/mol) on two or more glucose-lowering medications with or without micro-/macrovascular complications or taking multiple blood pressure–lowering medications were screened with a 1-mg dexamethasone suppression test. Common causes of false-positive DSTs were excluded. The primary end point was the prevalence of hypercortisolism, defined as post-DST cortisol &gt;1.8 μg/dL (50 nmol/L). Characteristics associated with hypercortisolism were assessed with multiple logistic regression. The percentage and characteristics of participants with hypercortisolism and adrenal imaging abnormalities were also assessed. RESULTS Post-DST cortisol was unsuppressed in 252 of 1,057 participants (prevalence 23.8%; 95% CI 21.3, 26.5). Hypercortisolism prevalence was 33.3% among participants with cardiac disorders and 36.6% among those taking three or more blood pressure–lowering medications. Adrenal imaging abnormalities were reported in 34.7% of participants with hypercortisolism. Use of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (odds ratio 1.558), maximum-dose glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (1.544), tirzepatide (1.981), or a higher number of blood pressure–lowering medications (1.390); older age (1.316); BMI &lt;30 kg/m2 (1.639); non-Latino/Hispanic ethnicity (3.718); and use of fibrates (2.676) or analgesics (1.457) were associated with higher prevalence (all P &lt; 0.03). CONCLUSIONS Hypercortisolism was associated with hyperglycemia in approximately one-quarter of individuals with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes despite multiple medications.

Background Acute therapies targeting calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) for episodic migraine (EM) demonstrate efficacy in women, but evidence of efficacy in men remains to be established. By contrast, CGRP targeting therapies for migraine prevention are effective in both men and women with frequent EM or chronic migraine (CM). Preclinical studies have shown that supradural application of CGRP preferentially produces migraine-like pain behaviors in female rodents. We hypothesized that, in male mice, increased frequency of migraine-like pain may sensitize to nociceptive effects of CGRP and this might be associated with altered expression of CGRP in trigeminal ganglion (TG) neurons and/or in their dural projections. Methods CM was modeled in male and female mice by repeated administration of nitroglycerin (NTG). Medication overuse headache (MOH), a form of CM, was modeled by repeated daily administration of sumatriptan. Following resolution of transient cutaneous allodynia (CA) elicited by NTG or sumatriptan, mice received a sex specific subthreshold dose of supradural CGRP that does not elicit CA in naïve male or female mice, and CA was evaluated. CGRP-positive cell bodies in the ophthalmic V1 region of the trigeminal ganglion (TGV1) and CGRP-positive nerve fibers innervating the dura mater were assessed. Results Supradural administration of 1 pg of CGRP produced migraine-like pain behaviors in female, but not male, mice; a ten-fold lower dose was established as subthreshold in naïve female mice. Repeated NTG or sumatriptan produced transient CA in both female and male mice that resolved within 8–11 days after treatment cessation. Following resolution of CA, previously subthreshold doses of CGRP elicited CA in CM and MOH models in mice of both sexes, with no effects observed in vehicle treated controls. A higher number of CGRP-positive neurons in the TGV1 was found in naïve female compared to male mice. The number of CGRP-positive TGV1 neurons was increased in both sexes following repeated NTG. Similar nerve fiber density was observed in the dura mater of male and female mice and no differences were detected following repeated NTG. Conclusions As previously reported, CGRP produced female-selective migraine-like pain behaviors in naïve mice. Consistent with behavioral effects, female mice demonstrated a higher number of CGRP-positive cells in the TGV1. These findings appear relevant to clinical observations of female efficacy of CGRP-receptor antagonists for acute treatment in EM patients. In models of CM or MOH that are characterized by increased frequency of migraine-like pain, previously subthreshold doses of supradural CGRP now elicited migraine-like nociceptive behaviors in mice of both sexes. The increased pain responses were accompanied by increased number CGRP positive TGV1 cells in the NTG model in both female and male mice. These data suggest that increased frequency of migraine promotes physiological changes including increased expression of TGV1 CGRP along with sensitization to CGRP-induced nociception in both males and females. Thus, as EM transforms to CM, CGRP-dependent mechanisms may become increasingly important, consistent with observations of efficacy of CGRP targeting therapies for migraine prevention in both men and women. Our results also suggest the possibility of enhanced efficacy of CGRP-receptor antagonists for the acute treatment of migraine in men as migraine frequency increases.