Vogel, Jacob W.

Abstract The Tau Global Conference 2025, hosted by the Alzheimer's Association, CurePSP, and the Rainwater Charitable Foundation, convened international experts from academia, industry, government, and philanthropy to explore advances and challenges in tauopathy research. The meeting highlighted progress across tau biology, including emerging models of tau regulation, degradation, and propagation; advances in biomarker development for the diagnosis and staging of tauopathies; and evolving therapeutic strategies targeting diverse aspects of tau pathophysiology. Discussions also emphasized the importance of cross‐sector collaboration, and global initiatives to address disparities in tau research. This report synthesizes key insights from the conference and underscores the critical role of interdisciplinary, biomarker‐driven, and globally inclusive approaches in accelerating the translation of tau research into effective clinical applications.

Abstract The growing availability of large-scale biomarker datasets has allowed data-driven methods to characterize Alzheimer’s disease biological heterogeneity. However, most prior studies have focused on cohorts of late-onset amnestic cases, leaving early-onset Alzheimer’s disease underexplored. We aimed to characterize tau-PET-based subtypes through a robust data-driven approach in the Longitudinal Early-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease Study. Baseline [18F]Flortaucipir PET scans from 365 amyloid-PET-positive participants with sporadic early-onset Alzheimer’s disease were quantified in the left and right medial temporal, lateral temporal, occipital, parietal, and frontal cortices. Tau PET values were z-scored against 85 amyloid-PET-negative cognitively normal age-matched participants and fitted into Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)—an unsupervised clustering algorithm that simultaneously models subtypes and progression from cross-sectional data. The derived subtypes were subsequently characterized by baseline and longitudinal clinical, cognitive, MRI, tau and amyloid PET features. We identified three tau-PET-based subtypes: on average, Subtype 1/Typical (n = 144, 40%) showed a predominant bilateral temporoparietal pattern typical of Alzheimer’s disease. Subtype 2/Left temporal (n = 111, 31%) showed predominant left temporal binding. Subtype 3/Posterior (n = 104, 29%) showed early and permeating occipitoparietal involvement. Subtypes did not differ in demographics or global amyloid burden, but were relatively more enriched for specific clinical presentations: S1/Typical for amnestic presentations, S2/Left Temporal for primary progressive aphasia, and S3/Posterior for posterior cortical atrophy. Baseline tau PET subtypes aligned with cortical atrophy patterns and domain-specific cognitive impairment. When follow-up tau PET scans were fitted to SuStaIn trained on baseline data, 85.6% (n = 172/201) of participants retained the same subtype classification, indicating subtype temporal stability, and progressed within subtypes by 0.56 ± 0.70 SuStaIn stage/year. Longitudinal voxel-wise linear mixed-effects modelling revealed tau accumulation patterns for each subtype in regions relatively spared at baseline: occipital lobe accumulation predominated in S1/Typical, bilateral frontal and right temporal in S2/Left Temporal, and bilateral frontotemporal lobes in S3/Posterior. All subtypes showed longitudinal increases in Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes, but with slower worsening in S3/Posterior compared with the other subtypes. Our findings reveal robust subtypes in sporadic early-onset Alzheimer’s disease characterized by distinct spatiotemporal tau patterns that parallel differences in clinical presentations and trajectories of neurodegeneration. These subtypes extend beyond traditional clinical syndromes and support a more nuanced framework for individualized prognosis and care. Incorporating tau PET subtyping into clinical trial design could enable more targeted therapeutic approaches for this younger population.

Abstract Background Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) seed amplification assays (SAAs) for detecting α‐synuclein (αsyn) seeds have recently emerged as robust in vivo biomarkers of Lewy body pathology (LBP). However, CSF sampling is invasive, costly, and time‐consuming, limiting its widespread use. We aimed to develop and evaluate a neuropathologically‐validated two‐step workflow, leveraging smell function and CSF αsyn SAA to accurately determine postmortem LBP status. This approach could reduce the number of confirmatory lumbar punctures needed (Figure 1). Methods The study included 358 individuals from the Arizona Study of Aging and Neurodegenerative Disorders with antemortem smell testing, CSF αsyn SAA results, and postmortem neuropathological assessments of regional LBP burden. Step‐1 of the two‐step workflow involved a risk‐stratification model predicting postmortem cortical LBP‐positivity (LBP ctx , defined as at least mild pathology in any cortical region) using logistic regression models with University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT) scores (smell testing), age, and sex as predictors. In step‐2, confirmatory CSF αsyn SAA testing was applied only to participants identified as high‐risk in step‐1. Workflow performance ‐ accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and reduction in CSF testing ‐ was evaluated in (i) the entire study cohort; (ii) patients with clinical parkinsonism; (iii) patients with an Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical syndrome; and (iv) clinically unimpaired (CU) individuals. Results Participants had a mean age at death of 86.2±7.8 years, 42.6% were female, 35.2% had LBP ctx , and the average time between UPSIT and death was 3.2±2.3 years (Table 1). Using a 95% sensitivity cut‐off for the UPSIT‐based algorithm, the two‐step workflow achieved high accuracy in identifying LBP ctx (whole cohort=94%; clinical parkinsonism=95%; clinical AD=94%; CU=93%; Figure 2a), while reducing CSF testing (whole cohort=‐43%; clinical parkinsonism=‐23%; clinical AD=‐35%; and CU=‐80%; Figure 2d). PPVs ranged from 75‐96% and were highest in the clinical parkinsonism subgroup (96%) where LBP ctx + was highest (62.7%). NPVs ranged between 95‐98% and were highest in the clinical AD subgroup (98%) (Figure 2b‐c). The two‐step approach reached accuracies similar to using CSF tests in all participants. Conclusions Implementing a two‐step workflow in different clinical scenarios may reduce invasive testing with CSF, minimizing the burden for individuals and costs for healthcare providers.

Importance Tau positron emission tomography (PET) allows in vivo detection of neurofibrillary tangles, a core neuropathologic feature of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective To provide estimates of the frequency of tau PET positivity and its associated risk of clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants Longitudinal study using data pooled from 21 cohorts, comprising a convenience sample of 6514 participants from 13 countries, collected between January 2013 and June 2024. Cognitively unimpaired individuals and patients with a clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD dementia, or other neurodegenerative disorders were included. Exposures Tau PET with flortaucipir F 18, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and clinical examinations. Tau PET scans were visually rated as positive according to a US Food and Drug Administration– and European Medicines Agency–approved method, designed to indicate the presence of advanced neurofibrillary tangle pathology (Braak stages V-VI). Main Outcomes and Measures Frequency of tau PET positivity and absolute risk of clinical progression (eg, progression to MCI or dementia). Results Among the 6514 participants (mean age, 69.5 years; 50.5% female), median follow-up time ranged from 1.5 to 4.0 years. Of 3487 cognitively unimpaired participants, 349 (9.8%) were tau PET positive; the estimated frequency of tau PET positivity was less than 1% in those aged younger than 50 years, and increased from 3% (95% CI, 2%-4%) at 60 years to 19% (95% CI, 16%-24%) at 90 years. Tau PET positivity frequency estimates increased across MCI and AD dementia clinical diagnoses (43% [95% CI, 41%-46%] and 79% [95% CI, 77%-82%] at 75 years, respectively). Most tau PET–positive individuals (92%) were also Aβ PET positive. Cognitively unimpaired participants who were positive for both Aβ PET and tau PET had a higher absolute risk of progression to MCI or dementia over the following 5 years (57% [95% CI, 45%-71%]) compared with both Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–negative (17% [95% CI, 13%-22%]) and Aβ PET–negative/tau PET–negative (6% [95% CI, 5%-8%]) individuals. Among participants with MCI at the time of the tau PET scan, an Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–positive profile was associated with a 5-year absolute risk of progression to dementia of 70% (95% CI, 59%-81%). Conclusions and Relevance In a large convenience sample, a positive tau PET scan occurred at a nonnegligible rate among cognitively unimpaired individuals, and the combination of Aβ PET positivity and tau PET positivity was associated with a high risk of clinical progression in both preclinical and symptomatic stages of AD. These findings underscore the potential of tau PET as a biomarker for staging AD pathology.

Accurate prediction of progression in subjects at risk of Alzheimer's disease is crucial for enrolling the right subjects in clinical trials. However, a prospective comparison of state-of-the-art algorithms for predicting disease onset and progression is currently lacking. We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of patient-specific biomarkers. On a limited, cross-sectional subset of the data emulating clinical trials, performance of the best algorithms at predicting clinical diagnosis decreased only slightly (2 percentage points) compared to the full longitudinal dataset. The submission system remains open via the website https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, while TADPOLE SHARE (https://tadpole-share.github.io/) collates code for submissions. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.