Bilgel, Murat

Abstract Background Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) progression is conceptualized as a cascade of sigmoidal (S‐shaped) curves, with biomarkers shifting sequentially from normal to abnormal states. Estimating these curves requires sophisticated modeling, with challenges including (1) selecting appropriate sigmoidal‐type functions, (2) achieving algorithmic convergence, and (3) producing clinically useful parameters. We compare commonly used sigmoidal‐functions and effects on novel estimates of early and late AD‐biomarker progression ages. Method Using 3,999 Amyloid PET (PiB SUVR) measurements from 1,367 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging participants, we compared model fits (AIC, BIC) between logistic and hyperbolic functions using Non‐Linear Mixed Effect (NLME) models with subject‐specific age‐shifts. We defined novel “initial” and “maximum” acceleration points (IAP and MAP) to compare clinically “earlier” and “later” AD‐progression ages between sigmoidal‐curves. The MAP uses the maximum second‐derivative point, reflecting the age of fastest acceleration in biomarker accumulation. The IAP is defined as the first point where the second derivative of the sigmoidal‐curve exceeds a clinical threshold (here, 5% velocity increase per year), indicating onset age of early accelerated biomarker accumulation. Estimates for C 2 N plasma p ‐tau217 were also attempted (1,306 measurements on 457 participants). Models adjusted for sex and APOE4‐positivity. Result In the larger PET sample, the hyperbola had lower AIC/BIC (better fit), but showed a decreasing early PiB‐SUVR trend (Table 1A, Figure 1). Ages of late MAP were comparable, as were sex and APOE4+ related PiB‐SUVR‐curve shifts. Age of early AD‐onset was estimated 1.5 years earlier for logistic (IAP=63.6) versus hyperbola (IAP=65.1) functions. The logistic function always converged, while the hyperbolic function did not converge for p ‐tau217 in the smaller C 2 N sample. Early‐onset and late‐progression ages were 7‐8 years later for p ‐tau217 versus PiB‐SUVR using logistic‐curves. Conclusion Late AD‐progression and covariate‐related shifts in progression were comparable across models, suggesting robustness to sigmoid choice. In contrast, estimates of early AD‐onset may be more dependent on functional form. While logistic‐sigmoids inherently increase monotonically, hyperbolas do not, here estimating a decline in initial amyloid trend. Future work may explore adding biologically informed constraints to flexible sigmoidal‐functions, and alternative Bayesian approaches, to optimize both model fit and estimation of early AD‐onset age.

Abstract INTRODUCTION New methods estimate amyloid positivity onset age (EAOA) from amyloid positron emission tomography (PET). We explore the genetics of EAOA to identify molecular factors underlying the earliest Alzheimer's disease (AD) changes. METHODS Harmonized amyloid PET data from 4216 participants were used in genome‐wide survival, tissue‐specific gene expression, and genetic covariance analyses of EAOA. RESULTS Variants in apolipoprotein E ( APOE ), ABCA7 , and RASGEF1C associated with earlier EAOA. APOE ε4/ε4 and ε3/ε4 converted 6.3 and 5 years earlier than ε3/ε3, respectively. ε2 was protective against earlier EAOA. rs4147929, an expression quantitative trait locus for ABCA7 , associated with a 4 year earlier EAOA. This variant was associated with lower brain expression of ABCA7 , which was associated with increased amyloid pathology at autopsy. Multiple immune‐related diseases shared genetic covariance with EAOA. DISCUSSION APOE , ABCA7 , and RASGEF1C associated with earlier EAOA, with supporting evidence from tissue‐specific expression analyses, offering insights into intervenable targets at early stages of AD. Highlights Novel methods estimate how long ago a patient converted to amyloid positivity. Estimating this amyloid clock allows us to determine the onset of the earliest Alzheimer's disease changes. We evaluated what genes influence when someone converts to amyloid positivity. Apolipoprotein E ( APOE ) , ABCA7 , and RASGEF1C associated with earlier age of amyloid positivity. Genetic results were supported by tissue‐specific expression analyses.

Accurate prediction of progression in subjects at risk of Alzheimer's disease is crucial for enrolling the right subjects in clinical trials. However, a prospective comparison of state-of-the-art algorithms for predicting disease onset and progression is currently lacking. We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of patient-specific biomarkers. On a limited, cross-sectional subset of the data emulating clinical trials, performance of the best algorithms at predicting clinical diagnosis decreased only slightly (2 percentage points) compared to the full longitudinal dataset. The submission system remains open via the website https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, while TADPOLE SHARE (https://tadpole-share.github.io/) collates code for submissions. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.