Toga, Arthur W

Accurate prediction of progression in subjects at risk of Alzheimer's disease is crucial for enrolling the right subjects in clinical trials. However, a prospective comparison of state-of-the-art algorithms for predicting disease onset and progression is currently lacking. We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of patient-specific biomarkers. On a limited, cross-sectional subset of the data emulating clinical trials, performance of the best algorithms at predicting clinical diagnosis decreased only slightly (2 percentage points) compared to the full longitudinal dataset. The submission system remains open via the website https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, while TADPOLE SHARE (https://tadpole-share.github.io/) collates code for submissions. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

AbstractIntroductionRepresentation of Mexican Americans in Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical research has been extremely poor.MethodsData were examined from the ongoing community‐based, multi‐ethnic Health & Aging Brain among Latino Elders (HABLE) study. Participants underwent functional exams, clinical labs, neuropsychological testing, and 3T magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. Fasting proteomic markers were examined for predicting mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD using support vector machine models.ResultsData were examined from n = 1649 participants (Mexican American n = 866; non‐Hispanic White n = 783). Proteomic profiles were highly accurate in detecting MCI (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.91) and dementia (AUC = 0.95). The proteomic profiles varied significantly between ethnic groups and disease state. Negative predictive value was excellent for ruling out MCI and dementia across ethnic groups.DiscussionA blood‐based screening tool can serve as a method for increasing access to state‐of‐the‐art AD clinical research by bridging between community‐based and clinic‐based settings.

INTRODUCTION The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities. Variations in human cortical surface area and thickness are associated with neurological, psychological, and behavioral traits and can be measured in vivo by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Studies in model organisms have identified genes that influence cortical structure, but little is known about common genetic variants that affect human cortical structure. RATIONALE To identify genetic variants associated with human cortical structure at both global and regional levels, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain MRI data from 51,665 individuals across 60 cohorts. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 cortical regions with known functional specializations. RESULTS We identified 369 nominally genome-wide significant loci ( P < 5 × 10 −8 ) associated with cortical structure in a discovery sample of 33,992 participants of European ancestry. Of the 360 loci for which replication data were available, 241 loci influencing surface area and 66 influencing thickness remained significant after replication, with 237 loci passing multiple testing correction ( P < 8.3 × 10 −10 ; 187 influencing surface area and 50 influencing thickness). Common genetic variants explained 34% (SE = 3%) of the variation in total surface area and 26% (SE = 2%) in average thickness; surface area and thickness showed a negative genetic correlation ( r G = −0.32, SE = 0.05, P = 6.5 × 10 −12 ), which suggests that genetic influences have opposing effects on surface area and thickness. Bioinformatic analyses showed that total surface area is influenced by genetic variants that alter gene regulatory activity in neural progenitor cells during fetal development. By contrast, average thickness is influenced by active regulatory elements in adult brain samples, which may reflect processes that occur after mid-fetal development, such as myelination, branching, or pruning. When considered together, these results support the radial unit hypothesis that different developmental mechanisms promote surface area expansion and increases in thickness. To identify specific genetic influences on individual cortical regions, we controlled for global measures (total surface area or average thickness) in the regional analyses. After multiple testing correction, we identified 175 loci that influence regional surface area and 46 that influence regional thickness. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes involved in the Wnt signaling pathway, which is known to influence areal identity. We observed significant positive genetic correlations and evidence of bidirectional causation of total surface area with both general cognitive functioning and educational attainment. We found additional positive genetic correlations between total surface area and Parkinson’s disease but did not find evidence of causation. Negative genetic correlations were evident between total surface area and insomnia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, depressive symptoms, major depressive disorder, and neuroticism. CONCLUSION This large-scale collaborative work enhances our understanding of the genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex and its regional patterning. The highly polygenic architecture of the cortex suggests that distinct genes are involved in the development of specific cortical areas. Moreover, we find evidence that brain structure is a key phenotype along the causal pathway that leads from genetic variation to differences in general cognitive function. Identifying genetic influences on human cortical structure. ( A ) Measurement of cortical surface area and thickness from MRI. ( B ) Genomic locations of common genetic variants that influence global and regional cortical structure. ( C ) Our results support the radial unit hypothesis that the expansion of cortical surface area is driven by proliferating neural progenitor cells. ( D ) Cortical surface area shows genetic correlation with psychiatric and cognitive traits. Error bars indicate SE. IMAGE CREDITS: (A) K. COURTNEY; (C) M. R. GLASS

Abstract Introduction The overall goal of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) is to validate biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials. ADNI is a multisite, longitudinal, observational study that has collected many biomarkers since 2004. Recent publications highlight the multifactorial nature of late‐onset AD. We discuss selected topics that provide insights into AD progression and outline how this knowledge may improve clinical trials. Methods We used standard methods to identify nearly 600 publications using ADNI data from 2016 and 2017 (listed in Supplementary Material and searchable at http://adni.loni.usc.edu/news‐publications/publications/ ). Results (1) Data‐driven AD progression models supported multifactorial interactions rather than a linear cascade of events. (2) β‐Amyloid (Aβ) deposition occurred concurrently with functional connectivity changes within the default mode network in preclinical subjects and was followed by specific and progressive disconnection of functional and anatomical networks. (3) Changes in functional connectivity, volumetric measures, regional hypometabolism, and cognition were detectable at subthreshold levels of Aβ deposition. 4. Tau positron emission tomography imaging studies detailed a specific temporal and spatial pattern of tau pathology dependent on prior Aβ deposition, and related to subsequent cognitive decline. 5. Clustering studies using a wide range of modalities consistently identified a “typical AD” subgroup and a second subgroup characterized by executive impairment and widespread cortical atrophy in preclinical and prodromal subjects. 6. Vascular pathology burden may act through both Aβ dependent and independent mechanisms to exacerbate AD progression. 7. The APOE ε4 allele interacted with cerebrovascular disease to impede Aβ clearance mechanisms. 8. Genetic approaches identified novel genetic risk factors involving a wide range of processes, and demonstrated shared genetic risk for AD and vascular disorders, as well as the temporal and regional pathological associations of established AD risk alleles. 9. Knowledge of early pathological changes guided the development of novel prognostic biomarkers for preclinical subjects. 10. Placebo populations of randomized controlled clinical trials had highly variable trajectories of cognitive change, underscoring the importance of subject selection and monitoring. 11. Selection criteria based on Aβ positivity, hippocampal volume, baseline cognitive/functional measures, and APOE ε4 status in combination with improved cognitive outcome measures were projected to decrease clinical trial duration and cost. 12. Multiple concurrent therapies targeting vascular health and other AD pathology in addition to Aβ may be more effective than single therapies. Discussion ADNI publications from 2016 and 2017 supported the idea of AD as a multifactorial disease and provided insights into the complexities of AD disease progression. These findings guided the development of novel biomarkers and suggested that subject selection on the basis of multiple factors may lower AD clinical trial costs and duration. The use of multiple concurrent therapies in these trials may prove more effective in reversing AD disease progression.

Introduction The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) has continued development and standardization of methodologies for biomarkers and has provided an increased depth and breadth of data available to qualified researchers. This review summarizes the over 400 publications using ADNI data during 2014 and 2015. Methods We used standard searches to find publications using ADNI data. Results (1) Structural and functional changes, including subtle changes to hippocampal shape and texture, atrophy in areas outside of hippocampus, and disruption to functional networks, are detectable in presymptomatic subjects before hippocampal atrophy; (2) In subjects with abnormal β‐amyloid deposition (Aβ+), biomarkers become abnormal in the order predicted by the amyloid cascade hypothesis; (3) Cognitive decline is more closely linked to tau than Aβ deposition; (4) Cerebrovascular risk factors may interact with Aβ to increase white‐matter (WM) abnormalities which may accelerate Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in conjunction with tau abnormalities; (5) Different patterns of atrophy are associated with impairment of memory and executive function and may underlie psychiatric symptoms; (6) Structural, functional, and metabolic network connectivities are disrupted as AD progresses. Models of prion‐like spreading of Aβ pathology along WM tracts predict known patterns of cortical Aβ deposition and declines in glucose metabolism; (7) New AD risk and protective gene loci have been identified using biologically informed approaches; (8) Cognitively normal and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects are heterogeneous and include groups typified not only by “classic” AD pathology but also by normal biomarkers, accelerated decline, and suspected non‐Alzheimer's pathology; (9) Selection of subjects at risk of imminent decline on the basis of one or more pathologies improves the power of clinical trials; (10) Sensitivity of cognitive outcome measures to early changes in cognition has been improved and surrogate outcome measures using longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging may further reduce clinical trial cost and duration; (11) Advances in machine learning techniques such as neural networks have improved diagnostic and prognostic accuracy especially in challenges involving MCI subjects; and (12) Network connectivity measures and genetic variants show promise in multimodal classification and some classifiers using single modalities are rivaling multimodal classifiers. Discussion Taken together, these studies fundamentally deepen our understanding of AD progression and its underlying genetic basis, which in turn informs and improves clinical trial design.

Aberrant connectivity is implicated in many neurological and psychiatric disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease and schizophrenia. However, other than a few disease-associated candidate genes, we know little about the degree to which genetics play a role in the brain networks; we know even less about specific genes that influence brain connections. Twin and family-based studies can generate estimates of overall genetic influences on a trait, but genome-wide association scans (GWASs) can screen the genome for specific variants influencing the brain or risk for disease. To identify the heritability of various brain connections, we scanned healthy young adult twins with high-field, high-angular resolution diffusion MRI. We adapted GWASs to screen the brain’s connectivity pattern, allowing us to discover genetic variants that affect the human brain’s wiring. The association of connectivity with the SPON1 variant at rs2618516 on chromosome 11 (11p15.2) reached connectome-wide, genome-wide significance after stringent statistical corrections were enforced, and it was replicated in an independent subsample. rs2618516 was shown to affect brain structure in an elderly population with varying degrees of dementia. Older people who carried the connectivity variant had significantly milder clinical dementia scores and lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease. As a posthoc analysis, we conducted GWASs on several organizational and topological network measures derived from the matrices to discover variants in and around genes associated with autism ( MACROD2 ), development ( NEDD4 ), and mental retardation ( UBE2A ) significantly associated with connectivity. Connectome-wide, genome-wide screening offers substantial promise to discover genes affecting brain connectivity and risk for brain diseases.

The Clinical Core of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) has provided clinical, operational, and data management support to ADNI since its inception. This article reviews the activities and accomplishments of the core in support of ADNI aims. These include the enrollment and follow‐up of more than 800 subjects in the three original cohorts: healthy controls, amnestic mild cognitive impairment (now referred to as late MCI, or LMCI), and mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the first phase of ADNI (ADNI 1), with baseline longitudinal, clinical, and cognitive assessments. These data, when combined with genetic, neuroimaging, and cerebrospinal fluid measures, have provided important insights into the neurobiology of the AD spectrum. Furthermore, these data have facilitated the development of novel clinical trial designs. ADNI has recently been extended with funding from an NIH Grand Opportunities (GO) award, and the new ADNI GO phase has been launched; this includes the enrollment of a new cohort, called early MCI, with milder episodic memory impairment than the LMCI group. An application for a further 5 years of ADNI funding (ADNI 2) was recently submitted. This funding would support ongoing follow‐up of the original ADNI 1 and ADNI GO cohorts, as well as additional recruitment into all categories. The resulting data would provide valuable data on the earliest stages of AD, and support the development of interventions in these critically important populations.