Golland, Polina

Accurate prediction of progression in subjects at risk of Alzheimer's disease is crucial for enrolling the right subjects in clinical trials. However, a prospective comparison of state-of-the-art algorithms for predicting disease onset and progression is currently lacking. We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of patient-specific biomarkers. On a limited, cross-sectional subset of the data emulating clinical trials, performance of the best algorithms at predicting clinical diagnosis decreased only slightly (2 percentage points) compared to the full longitudinal dataset. The submission system remains open via the website https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, while TADPOLE SHARE (https://tadpole-share.github.io/) collates code for submissions. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Abstract While chronological age is one of the most influential determinants of post-stroke outcomes, little is known of the impact of neuroimaging-derived biological brain age. We here first examine whether radiomics analysis of the texture of brain T2-FLAIR MRI images can be used to predict brain age in stroke patients. We then assess the clinical determinants of accelerated brain aging and, finally, its impact on post-stroke functional outcomes. Leveraging a multisite cohort of 4,163 ischemic stroke patients, we show that older-appearing patients have more hypertension, diabetes mellitus, prior strokes, and smoking history and are more likely to develop worse post-stroke outcomes than their younger-appearing counterparts. Our results strengthen the importance of preventive medicine for maintaining brain health in stroke patients as they age and suggest a novel methodology to capture previously undescribed prognostic information available on commonly acquired MRI sequences during routine stroke care.

Introduction: White matter hyperintensity volume (WMHv) is an important and highly heritable cerebrovascular phenotype; however, manual or semi-automated approaches to clinically acquired MRI analysis hinder large-scale studies in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). In this work, we develop a high-throughput, fully automated WMHv analysis pipeline for clinical fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images to facilitate rapid genetic discovery in AIS. Methods: Automated WMHv extraction from multiple subjects relies on significant pre-processing of medical scans, including co-registration of the images. To reduce the effects of anisotropic voxel sizes, each FLAIR image is upsampled using bi-cubic interpolation. Brain extraction is performed using RObust Brain EXtraction (ROBEX). Images are then registered to an in-house FLAIR template using Advanced Normalization Tools (ANTs). The spatial covariation of WMH is learned through principal component analysis (PCA) of manual outlines from 100 subjects. Areas of leukoaraiosis are identified and separated from other lesions using the PCA modes. Volumes are then computed using non-interpolated slices for each subject. Standard deviation (SD) in WMHv (9 subjects; 6 raters each) is calculated as a measure of variability. Good agreement between automated and manual outlines is assessed in 358 subjects (automated WMHv within 3SD of manual WMHv). Results: As part of the MRI - Gen etics I nterface E xploration (MRI-GENIE) study, WMHv were calculated on a set of 2703 FLAIR images of patients from 12 independent AIS cohorts (sites). Results are shown in Figure 1. Comparing manual and automated WMHv shows that 88% of the automated WMHv fall within 3 SD from the manual WMHv, suggesting good agreement. Conclusion: WMHv segmentation using a fully-automated pipeline for analysis of clinical MRIs is both feasible and accurate. Ongoing analysis of the extracted WMHv is expected to advance current knowledge of risks and outcomes in AIS.

Introduction: Even though neuroinflammation is increasingly recognized as an essential contributor to ischemic brain injury, the exact underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Higher expression of the vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1) increases leukocyte-brain endothelium interaction and has been associated with larger infarct size following acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The activation of the TGF-β signaling pathways can down-regulate VCAM-1 expression and ameliorate deleterious tissue outcome during neuroinflammation. Hypothesis: We sought to investigate whether genetic variation in the TGF-beta pathway and adhesion molecule genes is associated with acute stroke lesion size. Methods: We completed genome-wide association (GWA) testing and diffusion-weighted imaging lesion volume (DWIv) analysis in a discovery cohort of 532 AIS patients of European ancestry enrolled within 48 hours of symptom onset. An independent European ancestry cohort of 724 AIS patients with GWA data and automated DWIv served as replication cohort. GWA testing per SNP was performed using linear regression modeling of natural log-transformed DWIv adjusted for age, sex and relevant principal components. We selected 42 inflammatory genes in the TGF-beta pathway for a gene-based analysis using VEGAS (Versatile Gene-based -Association Study) software. A pre-specified discovery phase Bonferroni-corrected threshold was set at p<0.001. In the replication phase, 14 SNPs overlapping were tested at the Bonferroni-corrected p-value threshold of p<0.004. Results: Of all genes in the TGF-beta pathway, VCAM1 (p=0.0006) was significantly associated with DWIv in the discovery AIS cohort (age: 66 ± 14.9 years, sex: 63.4% male, DWIv: 2.2cm 3 (IQR: 0.6-11.7cm 3 )). A single SNP within the VCAM1 gene boundaries (rs3176876 (BETA=0.2341, p=0.003)) was significantly associated with DWIv in the replication AIS cohort (age: 65 ± 14.1 years, sex: 68.6% male, DWIv: 4cm 3 (IQR: 1.3-17.2cm 3 )). Conclusion: The genetic variant rs3176876 in the VCAM1 gene is associated with larger infarct lesion size measured on brain MRI of AIS patients. These findings suggest genetic contribution to the pro-inflammatory mechanisms in acute cerebral ischemia and warrant further investigation.

Introduction: White matter hyperintensity (WMH) is a highly heritable trait and a significant contributor to stroke risk and severity. Vascular risk factors contribute to WMH severity; however, knowledge of the determinants of WMH in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is still limited. Hypothesis: WMH volume (WMHv) varies across AIS subtypes and is modified by vascular risk factors. Methods: We extracted WMHv from the clinical MRI scans of 2683 AIS subjects from the MRI-Genetics Interface Exploration (MRI-GENIE) study using a novel fully-automated, volumetric analysis pipeline. Demographic data, stroke risk factors and stroke subtyping for the Causative Classification of Stroke (CCS) were performed at each of the 12 international study sites. WMHv was natural log-transformed for linear regression analyses. Results: Median WMHv was 5.7cm 3 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.2-12.8cm 3 ). In univariable analysis, age (63.1 ± 14.7 years, β=0.04, SE=0.002), prior stroke (10.2%, β=0.66, SE=0.08), hypertension (65.4%, β=0.75, SE=0.05), diabetes mellitus (23.1%, β=0.35, SE=0.06), coronary artery disease (17.6%, β=0.04, SE=0.002), and atrial fibrillation (14.6%, β=0.48, SE=0.07) were significant predictors of WMHv (all p<0.0001), as well as smoking status (52.2%, β=0.15, SE=0.05, p=0.005), race (16.5% Non-Caucasian, β=0.25, SE=0.07) and ethnicity (8.2% Hispanic, β=0.30, SE=0.11) (all p<0.01). In multivariable analysis, age (β=0.04, SE=0.002), prior stroke (β=0.56, SE=0.08), hypertension (β=0.33, SE=0.05), smoking status (β=0.16, SE=0.05), race (β=0.42, SE=0.06), and ethnicity (β=0.34, SE=0.09) were independent predictors of WMHv (all p<0.0001), as well as diabetes mellitus (β=0.13, SE=0.06, p=0.02). WMHv differed significantly (p<0.0001, unadjusted) across CCS stroke subtypes: cardioembolic stroke (8.0cm 3 , IQR: 4.2-15.4cm 3 ), large-artery stroke (6.9cm 3 , IQR: 3.1-14.7cm 3 ), small-vessel stroke (5.8cm 3 , IQR: 2.5-13.5cm 3 ), stroke of undetermined (4.7cm 3 , IQR: 1.6-11.0cm 3 ) or other (2.55cm 3 , IQR: 0.9-8.8cm 3 ) causes. Conclusion: In this largest-to-date, multicenter hospital-based cohort of AIS patients with automated WMHv analysis, common vascular risk factors contribute significantly to WMH burden and WMHv varies by CCS subtype.

Introduction: The MRI-Genetics Interface Exploration (MRI-GENIE) study is the first international collaboration that aims to facilitate genetic discoveries in clinical cohorts of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We have amassed the largest-to-date collection of AIS cases with brain MRI scans and genome-wide genotyping to test the role of genetic susceptibility in MRI-based cerebrovascular traits. Objective/Hypothesis: To elucidate the genetic architecture of white matter hyperintensity (WMH) burden in AIS patients. Methods: Using a novel automated algorithm, we extracted WMH volume (WMHv) from clinical MRI scans of 2704 AIS patients (age 63.1 ± 14.7 years, 60.6% male) of European ancestry. Quality control (QC) measures were undertaken per subject and per SNP, excluding subjects with non-European ancestry and poor genotyping, as well as SNPs deviating from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and high levels of missingness. Imputation to the Haplotype Reference Consortium (HRC version r1.1) was conducted for 1712 remaining subjects with 2.8 million SNPs on the Michigan Imputation Server. After exclusion of poorly imputed SNPs (R 2 <0.5) and SNPs with minor allele frequency < 1%, 7.7 million SNPs remained for further analysis. Genome-wide association testing of natural log-transformed WMHv on the allelic dosage per SNP was adjusted for age, sex and principal components 1-10. Results: Genome-wide association testing has identified a novel locus on chromosome 2 (T allele at rs72856504) near the LDL Receptor related Protein 1B gene (LRP1B) that was significantly associated with WMHv burden in AIS (β=0.54, SE=0.098, p=3.65*10 -8 ). Conclusion: We have identified a novel locus (T allele rs72856504) on chromosome 2 near the LRP1B gene, which is specific for WMH in AIS and has not been previosuly described in stroke-free WMH cohorts. A replication effort involving additional independent cohorts of AIS patients with brain MRI and genome-wide genotyping is ongoing.

Stroke is a leading cause of the adult disability epidemic in the United States, with a major contribution from poststroke cognitive impairment and dementia (PSCID), the rates of which are disproportionally high among the health disparity populations. Despite the PSCID’s overwhelming impact on public health, a knowledge gap exists with regard to the complex interaction between the acute stroke event and highly prevalent preexisting brain pathology related to cerebrovascular and Alzheimer disease or related dementia. Understanding the factors that modulate PSCID risk in relation to index stroke event is critically important for developing personalized prognostication of PSCID, targeted interventions to prevent it, and for informing future clinical trial design. The DISCOVERY study (Determinants of Incident Stroke Cognitive Outcomes and Vascular Effects on Recovery), a collaborative network of thirty clinical performance clinical sites with access to acute stroke populations and the expertise and capacity for systematic assessment of PSCID will address this critical challenge. DISCOVERY is a prospective, multicenter, observational, nested-cohort study of 8000 nondemented ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke patients enrolled at the time of index stroke and followed for a minimum of 2 years, with serial cognitive evaluations and assessments of functional outcome, with subsets undergoing research magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography and comprehensive genetic/genomic and fluid biomarker testing. The overall scientific objective of this study is to elucidate mechanisms of brain resilience and susceptibility to PSCID in diverse US populations based on complex interplay between life-course exposure to multiple vascular risk factors, preexisting burden of microvascular and neurodegenerative pathology, the effect of strategic acute stroke lesions, and the mediating effect of genomic and epigenomic variation.

Introduction: Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have contributed substantially to the understanding of complex vascular traits including ischemic stroke; however, genetic determinants of acute cerebral ischemia remain to be elucidated. Objective: To investigate the genetic architecture of cerebral infarct lesion burden in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods: Twelve international sites contributed 3,301 AIS subjects with acute MRI and genome-wide genotyping to the MRI-GENIE study. In a preliminary analysis of 657 subjects of European ancestry, acute cerebral infarct lesions were outlined on diffusion-weighted images (DWI) using a semi-automated volumetric method. Standard quality control measures were performed per single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and per subject. SNPs were imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium v1.1 panel. Natural log-transformed DWI volume was used for GWA analysis with allelic dosage per SNP, age, sex and principal components 1-5 of genetic ancestry as covariates. Results: GWA testing for DWI volume in 7.7 million SNPs yielded no signal crossing the Bonferroni-corrected genome-wide significance threshold of p <5*10 -8 . However, several loci passed the nominal significance threshold of p <1*10 -6 (Figure 1), including a locus on chromosome 2 in the SPATA3-AS1 (spermatogenesis associated 3 antisense RNA 1) gene (lead SNP: rs2368999, MAF=36%, p =8.4*10 -7 ) and an intronic locus on chromosome 10 in the ATRNL1 (Attractin like 1) gene (lead SNP: rs592284, MAF=10%, p =9.1*10 -7 ). Conclusion: In this first-to-date, preliminary GWAS of acute cerebral infarct volume in AIS patients, we identified several new, nominally significant loci including a locus in ATRNL1, a gene previously linked to carotid plaque burden. Further analyses of the MRI-GENIE cohort to replicate these findings, to include stroke subtype specific analyses, and to increase the overall statistical power of the study are ongoing.