Wu, Jianfeng

Background: Amyloid-β (Aβ) plaques play a pivotal role in Alzheimer’s disease. The current positron emission tomography (PET) is expensive and limited in availability. In contrast, blood-based biomarkers (BBBMs) show potential for characterizing Aβ plaques more affordably. We have previously proposed an MRI-based hippocampal morphometry measure to be an indicator of Aβ plaques. Objective: To develop and validate an integrated model to predict brain amyloid PET positivity combining MRI feature and plasma Aβ42/40 ratio. Methods: We extracted hippocampal multivariate morphometry statistics from MR images and together with plasma Aβ42/40 trained a random forest classifier to perform a binary classification of participant brain amyloid PET positivity. We evaluated the model performance using two distinct cohorts, one from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the other from the Banner Alzheimer’s Institute (BAI), including prediction accuracy, precision, recall rate, F1 score, and AUC score. Results: Results from ADNI (mean age 72.6, Aβ+ rate 49.5%) and BAI (mean age 66.2, Aβ+ rate 36.9%) datasets revealed the integrated multimodal (IMM) model’s superior performance over unimodal models. The IMM model achieved prediction accuracies of 0.86 in ADNI and 0.92 in BAI, surpassing unimodal models based solely on structural MRI (0.81 and 0.87) or plasma Aβ42/40 (0.73 and 0.81) predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Our IMM model, combining MRI and BBBM data, offers a highly accurate approach to predict brain amyloid PET positivity. This innovative multiplex biomarker strategy presents an accessible and cost-effective avenue for advancing Alzheimer’s disease diagnostics, leveraging diverse pathologic features related to Aβ plaques and structural MRI.

Accurate prediction of progression in subjects at risk of Alzheimer's disease is crucial for enrolling the right subjects in clinical trials. However, a prospective comparison of state-of-the-art algorithms for predicting disease onset and progression is currently lacking. We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of patient-specific biomarkers. On a limited, cross-sectional subset of the data emulating clinical trials, performance of the best algorithms at predicting clinical diagnosis decreased only slightly (2 percentage points) compared to the full longitudinal dataset. The submission system remains open via the website https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, while TADPOLE SHARE (https://tadpole-share.github.io/) collates code for submissions. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Background: Amyloid-β (Aβ) plaques and tau protein tangles in the brain are the defining ‘A’ and ‘T’ hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and together with structural atrophy detectable on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans as one of the neurodegenerative (‘N’) biomarkers comprise the “ATN framework” of AD. Current methods to detect Aβ/tau pathology include cerebrospinal fluid (invasive), positron emission tomography (PET; costly and not widely available), and blood-based biomarkers (promising but mainly still in development). Objective: To develop a non-invasive and widely available structural MRI-based framework to quantitatively predict the amyloid and tau measurements. Methods: With MRI-based hippocampal multivariate morphometry statistics (MMS) features, we apply our Patch Analysis-based Surface Correntropy-induced Sparse coding and max-pooling (PASCS-MP) method combined with the ridge regression model to individual amyloid/tau measure prediction. Results: We evaluate our framework on amyloid PET/MRI and tau PET/MRI datasets from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Each subject has one pair consisting of a PET image and MRI scan, collected at about the same time. Experimental results suggest that amyloid/tau measurements predicted with our PASCP-MP representations are closer to the real values than the measures derived from other approaches, such as hippocampal surface area, volume, and shape morphometry features based on spherical harmonics. Conclusion: The MMS-based PASCP-MP is an efficient tool that can bridge hippocampal atrophy with amyloid and tau pathology and thus help assess disease burden, progression, and treatment effects.

Background: Besides their other roles, brain imaging and other biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have the potential to inform a cognitively unimpaired (CU) person’s likelihood of progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and benefit subject selection when evaluating promising prevention therapies. We previously described that among baseline FDG-PET and MRI measures known to be preferentially affected in the preclinical and clinical stages of AD, hippocampal volume was the best predictor of incident MCI within 2 years (79%sensitivity/78%specificity), using standard automated MRI volumetric algorithmic programs, binary logistic regression, and leave-one-out procedures. Objective: To improve the same prediction by using different hippocampal features and machine learning methods, cross-validated via two independent and prospective cohorts (Arizona and ADNI). Methods: Patch-based sparse coding algorithms were applied to hippocampal surface features of baseline TI-MRIs from 78 CU adults who subsequently progressed to amnestic MCI in approximately 2 years (“progressors”) and 80 matched adults who remained CU for at least 4 years (“nonprogressors”). Nonprogressors and progressors were matched for age, sex, education, and apolipoprotein E4 allele dose. We did not include amyloid or tau biomarkers in defining MCI. Results: We achieved 92%prediction accuracy in the Arizona cohort, 92%prediction accuracy in the ADNI cohort, and 90%prediction accuracy when combining the two demographically distinct cohorts, as compared to 79%(Arizona) and 72%(ADNI) prediction accuracy using hippocampal volume. Conclusion: Surface multivariate morphometry and sparse coding, applied to individual MRIs, may accurately predict imminent progression to MCI even in the absence of other AD biomarkers.