Ourselin, Sébastien

Accurate prediction of progression in subjects at risk of Alzheimer's disease is crucial for enrolling the right subjects in clinical trials. However, a prospective comparison of state-of-the-art algorithms for predicting disease onset and progression is currently lacking. We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of patient-specific biomarkers. On a limited, cross-sectional subset of the data emulating clinical trials, performance of the best algorithms at predicting clinical diagnosis decreased only slightly (2 percentage points) compared to the full longitudinal dataset. The submission system remains open via the website https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, while TADPOLE SHARE (https://tadpole-share.github.io/) collates code for submissions. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Abstract Genetic forms of frontotemporal dementia are most commonly due to mutations in three genes, C9orf72, GRN or MAPT, with presymptomatic carriers from families representing those at risk. While cerebral blood flow shows differences between frontotemporal dementia and other forms of dementia, there is limited evidence of its utility in presymptomatic stages of frontotemporal dementia. This study aimed to delineate the cerebral blood flow signature of presymptomatic, genetic frontotemporal dementia using a voxel-based approach. In the multicentre GENetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI) study, we investigated cross-sectional differences in arterial spin labelling MRI-based cerebral blood flow between presymptomatic C9orf72, GRN or MAPT mutation carriers (n = 107) and non-carriers (n = 113), using general linear mixed-effects models and voxel-based analyses. Cerebral blood flow within regions of interest derived from this model was then explored to identify differences between individual gene carrier groups and to estimate a timeframe for the expression of these differences. The voxel-based analysis revealed a significant inverse association between cerebral blood flow and the expected age of symptom onset in carriers, but not non-carriers. Regions included the bilateral insulae/orbitofrontal cortices, anterior cingulate/paracingulate gyri, and inferior parietal cortices, as well as the left middle temporal gyrus. For all bilateral regions, associations were greater on the right side. After correction for partial volume effects in a region of interest analysis, the results were found to be largely driven by the C9orf72 genetic subgroup. These cerebral blood flow differences first appeared approximately 12.5 years before the expected symptom onset determined on an individual basis. Cerebral blood flow was lower in presymptomatic mutation carriers closer to and beyond their expected age of symptom onset in key frontotemporal dementia signature regions. These results suggest that arterial spin labelling MRI may be a promising non-invasive imaging biomarker for the presymptomatic stages of genetic frontotemporal dementia.

Abstract Rationale Quantitative computed tomographic (CT) measures of baseline disease severity might identify patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with an increased mortality risk. We evaluated whether quantitative CT variables could act as a cohort enrichment tool in future IPF drug trials. Objectives To determine whether computer-derived CT measures, specifically measures of pulmonary vessel–related structures (VRSs), can better predict functional decline and survival in IPF and reduce requisite sample sizes in drug trial populations. Methods Patients with IPF undergoing volumetric noncontrast CT imaging at the Royal Brompton Hospital, London, and St. Antonius Hospital, Utrecht, were examined to identify pulmonary function measures (including FVC) and visual and computer-derived (CALIPER [Computer-Aided Lung Informatics for Pathology Evaluation and Rating] software) CT features predictive of mortality and FVC decline. The discovery cohort comprised 247 consecutive patients, with validation of results conducted in a separate cohort of 284 patients, all fulfilling drug trial entry criteria. Measurements and Main Results In the discovery and validation cohorts, CALIPER-derived features, particularly VRS scores, were among the strongest predictors of survival and FVC decline. CALIPER results were accentuated in patients with less extensive disease, outperforming pulmonary function measures. When used as a cohort enrichment tool, a CALIPER VRS score greater than 4.4% of the lung was able to reduce the requisite sample size of an IPF drug trial by 26%. Conclusions Our study has validated a new quantitative CT measure in patients with IPF fulfilling drug trial entry criteria—the VRS score—that outperformed current gold standard measures of outcome. When used for cohort enrichment in an IPF drug trial setting, VRS threshold scores can reduce a required IPF drug trial population size by 25%, thereby limiting prohibitive trial costs. Importantly, VRS scores identify patients in whom antifibrotic medication prolongs life and reduces FVC decline.