Tiraboschi, Pietro

Objective Age of symptom onset is highly variable in familial frontotemporal lobar degeneration (f‐FTLD). Accurate prediction of onset would inform clinical management and trial enrollment. Prior studies indicate that individualized maps of brain atrophy can predict conversion to dementia in f‐FTLD. We used a Bayesian linear mixed‐effect (BLME) prediction method for identifying accelerated brain volume loss to predict conversion to dementia. Methods Participants included 234 asymptomatic or prodromal carriers of C9orf72 , GRN , or MAPT mutations (including 21 dementia converters) with ≥3 longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) T1‐weighted scans. The BLME models established individual voxel‐wise gray matter trajectories using the first 2 scans. Person‐specific clusters of accelerated volume loss were estimated in subsequent scans and tested as predictors of dementia conversion compared with other approaches in time‐varying Cox proportional hazard models covarying for age. Receiver‐operating characteristic (ROC) curves estimated utility of cluster volume in discriminating which participants converted to dementia within 24 months. Results The BLME cluster volume predicted conversion to dementia in f‐FTLD mutation carriers overall and separately in C9orf72 , GRN , and MAPT , with comparable hazard ratios observed for atrophy W‐maps and regional volumes. Within a 24‐month timeframe, BLME cluster volume discriminated dementia converters from non‐converters with larger areas under the curve (AUCs) than other approaches. Interpretation Bayesian‐modeled individualized atrophy scores predict dementia progression among asymptomatic f‐FTLD mutation carriers and may have increased utility compared with other structural imaging methods when studying individuals over shorter timeframes that align with clinical trial design. ANN NEUROL 20269999:n/a–n/a

Abstract Genetic forms of frontotemporal dementia are most commonly due to mutations in three genes, C9orf72, GRN or MAPT, with presymptomatic carriers from families representing those at risk. While cerebral blood flow shows differences between frontotemporal dementia and other forms of dementia, there is limited evidence of its utility in presymptomatic stages of frontotemporal dementia. This study aimed to delineate the cerebral blood flow signature of presymptomatic, genetic frontotemporal dementia using a voxel-based approach. In the multicentre GENetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI) study, we investigated cross-sectional differences in arterial spin labelling MRI-based cerebral blood flow between presymptomatic C9orf72, GRN or MAPT mutation carriers (n = 107) and non-carriers (n = 113), using general linear mixed-effects models and voxel-based analyses. Cerebral blood flow within regions of interest derived from this model was then explored to identify differences between individual gene carrier groups and to estimate a timeframe for the expression of these differences. The voxel-based analysis revealed a significant inverse association between cerebral blood flow and the expected age of symptom onset in carriers, but not non-carriers. Regions included the bilateral insulae/orbitofrontal cortices, anterior cingulate/paracingulate gyri, and inferior parietal cortices, as well as the left middle temporal gyrus. For all bilateral regions, associations were greater on the right side. After correction for partial volume effects in a region of interest analysis, the results were found to be largely driven by the C9orf72 genetic subgroup. These cerebral blood flow differences first appeared approximately 12.5 years before the expected symptom onset determined on an individual basis. Cerebral blood flow was lower in presymptomatic mutation carriers closer to and beyond their expected age of symptom onset in key frontotemporal dementia signature regions. These results suggest that arterial spin labelling MRI may be a promising non-invasive imaging biomarker for the presymptomatic stages of genetic frontotemporal dementia.