Perissinotti, Andrés

Importance Tau positron emission tomography (PET) allows in vivo detection of neurofibrillary tangles, a core neuropathologic feature of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective To provide estimates of the frequency of tau PET positivity and its associated risk of clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants Longitudinal study using data pooled from 21 cohorts, comprising a convenience sample of 6514 participants from 13 countries, collected between January 2013 and June 2024. Cognitively unimpaired individuals and patients with a clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD dementia, or other neurodegenerative disorders were included. Exposures Tau PET with flortaucipir F 18, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and clinical examinations. Tau PET scans were visually rated as positive according to a US Food and Drug Administration– and European Medicines Agency–approved method, designed to indicate the presence of advanced neurofibrillary tangle pathology (Braak stages V-VI). Main Outcomes and Measures Frequency of tau PET positivity and absolute risk of clinical progression (eg, progression to MCI or dementia). Results Among the 6514 participants (mean age, 69.5 years; 50.5% female), median follow-up time ranged from 1.5 to 4.0 years. Of 3487 cognitively unimpaired participants, 349 (9.8%) were tau PET positive; the estimated frequency of tau PET positivity was less than 1% in those aged younger than 50 years, and increased from 3% (95% CI, 2%-4%) at 60 years to 19% (95% CI, 16%-24%) at 90 years. Tau PET positivity frequency estimates increased across MCI and AD dementia clinical diagnoses (43% [95% CI, 41%-46%] and 79% [95% CI, 77%-82%] at 75 years, respectively). Most tau PET–positive individuals (92%) were also Aβ PET positive. Cognitively unimpaired participants who were positive for both Aβ PET and tau PET had a higher absolute risk of progression to MCI or dementia over the following 5 years (57% [95% CI, 45%-71%]) compared with both Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–negative (17% [95% CI, 13%-22%]) and Aβ PET–negative/tau PET–negative (6% [95% CI, 5%-8%]) individuals. Among participants with MCI at the time of the tau PET scan, an Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–positive profile was associated with a 5-year absolute risk of progression to dementia of 70% (95% CI, 59%-81%). Conclusions and Relevance In a large convenience sample, a positive tau PET scan occurred at a nonnegligible rate among cognitively unimpaired individuals, and the combination of Aβ PET positivity and tau PET positivity was associated with a high risk of clinical progression in both preclinical and symptomatic stages of AD. These findings underscore the potential of tau PET as a biomarker for staging AD pathology.

Objective To apply a machine learning analysis to clinical and presynaptic dopaminergic imaging data of patients with rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) to predict the development of Parkinson disease (PD) and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Method s In this multicenter study of the International RBD study group, 173 patients (mean age 70.5 ± 6.3 years, 70.5% males) with polysomnography‐confirmed RBD who eventually phenoconverted to overt alpha‐synucleinopathy (RBD due to synucleinopathy) were enrolled, and underwent baseline presynaptic dopaminergic imaging and clinical assessment, including motor, cognitive, olfaction, and constipation evaluation. For comparison, 232 RBD non‐phenoconvertor patients (67.6 ± 7.1 years, 78.4% males) and 160 controls (68.2 ± 7.2 years, 53.1% males) were enrolled. Imaging and clinical features were analyzed by machine learning to determine predictors of phenoconversion. Results Machine learning analysis showed that clinical data alone poorly predicted phenoconversion. Presynaptic dopaminergic imaging significantly improved the prediction, especially in combination with clinical data, with 77% sensitivity and 85% specificity in differentiating RBD due to synucleinopathy from non phenoconverted RBD patients, and 85% sensitivity and 86% specificity in discriminating PD‐converters from DLB‐converters. Quantification of presynaptic dopaminergic imaging showed that an empirical z ‐score cutoff of −1.0 at the most affected hemisphere putamen characterized RBD due to synucleinopathy patients, while a cutoff of −1.0 at the most affected hemisphere putamen/caudate ratio characterized PD‐converters. Interpretation Clinical data alone poorly predicted phenoconversion in RBD due to synucleinopathy patients. Conversely, presynaptic dopaminergic imaging allows a good prediction of forthcoming phenoconversion diagnosis. This finding may be used in designing future disease‐modifying trials. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:1178–1192