Potter, William Z.

Decades of research on biomarker identification and integration in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have helped to advance biologically driven disease models, disease subtypes, and disease-modifying treatments. Key lessons learned from AD biomarker development include the need for integration of new biological insights, investment in large cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, a multicomponent biomarker approach, and recruitment of clinical trial cohorts and biosamples that are representative of the target population. We describe how these lessons are being applied in Parkinson’s disease, Huntington’s disease, multiple sclerosis, and psychotic disorders as use cases to inform biomarker-based approaches across central nervous system disorders.

Importance Tau positron emission tomography (PET) allows in vivo detection of neurofibrillary tangles, a core neuropathologic feature of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective To provide estimates of the frequency of tau PET positivity and its associated risk of clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants Longitudinal study using data pooled from 21 cohorts, comprising a convenience sample of 6514 participants from 13 countries, collected between January 2013 and June 2024. Cognitively unimpaired individuals and patients with a clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD dementia, or other neurodegenerative disorders were included. Exposures Tau PET with flortaucipir F 18, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and clinical examinations. Tau PET scans were visually rated as positive according to a US Food and Drug Administration– and European Medicines Agency–approved method, designed to indicate the presence of advanced neurofibrillary tangle pathology (Braak stages V-VI). Main Outcomes and Measures Frequency of tau PET positivity and absolute risk of clinical progression (eg, progression to MCI or dementia). Results Among the 6514 participants (mean age, 69.5 years; 50.5% female), median follow-up time ranged from 1.5 to 4.0 years. Of 3487 cognitively unimpaired participants, 349 (9.8%) were tau PET positive; the estimated frequency of tau PET positivity was less than 1% in those aged younger than 50 years, and increased from 3% (95% CI, 2%-4%) at 60 years to 19% (95% CI, 16%-24%) at 90 years. Tau PET positivity frequency estimates increased across MCI and AD dementia clinical diagnoses (43% [95% CI, 41%-46%] and 79% [95% CI, 77%-82%] at 75 years, respectively). Most tau PET–positive individuals (92%) were also Aβ PET positive. Cognitively unimpaired participants who were positive for both Aβ PET and tau PET had a higher absolute risk of progression to MCI or dementia over the following 5 years (57% [95% CI, 45%-71%]) compared with both Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–negative (17% [95% CI, 13%-22%]) and Aβ PET–negative/tau PET–negative (6% [95% CI, 5%-8%]) individuals. Among participants with MCI at the time of the tau PET scan, an Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–positive profile was associated with a 5-year absolute risk of progression to dementia of 70% (95% CI, 59%-81%). Conclusions and Relevance In a large convenience sample, a positive tau PET scan occurred at a nonnegligible rate among cognitively unimpaired individuals, and the combination of Aβ PET positivity and tau PET positivity was associated with a high risk of clinical progression in both preclinical and symptomatic stages of AD. These findings underscore the potential of tau PET as a biomarker for staging AD pathology.

AbstractWith increasing numbers of people with Alzheimer's and other dementias across the globe, many countries have developed national plans to deal with the resulting challenges. In the United States, the National Alzheimer's Project Act, signed into law in 2011, required the creation of such a plan with annual updates thereafter. Pursuant to this, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released the National Plan to Address Alzheimer's Disease in 2012, including an ambitious research goal of preventing and effectively treating Alzheimer's disease by 2025. To guide investments, activities, and the measurement of progress toward achieving this 2025 goal, in its first annual plan update (2013) HHS also incorporated into the plan a set of short, medium and long‐term milestones. HHS further committed to updating these milestones on an ongoing basis to account for progress and setbacks, and emerging opportunities and obstacles. To assist HHS as it updates these milestones, the Alzheimer's Association convened a National Plan Milestone Workgroup consisting of scientific experts representing all areas of Alzheimer's and dementia research. The workgroup evaluated each milestone and made recommendations to ensure that they collectively constitute an adequate work plan for reaching the goal of preventing and effectively treating Alzheimer's by 2025. This report presents these Workgroup recommendations.