Brenner, Hermann

Abstract Background Breast cancer is etiologically heterogeneous, but which risk factors differ in their associations across tumor subtypes remains unclear. We conducted a large, pooled analysis to evaluate independent, dose-response associations between breast cancer risk factors and quantitative tumor features. Methods Analyses of 15,731 invasive breast cancers from 24 studies evaluated associations (p-trend) between reproductive and hormonal factors, body mass index (BMI), alcohol, smoking, and family history in relation to quantitative immunohistochemistry measures on tissue microarrays (ER, PR, HER2, KI67, TP53) and tumor grade. Analyses in a subset of 10 population-based studies estimated subtype-specific odds ratios (ORs) comparing cases to controls. A Bayesian False Discovery Probability (BFDP) <0.2 was used to identify associations with strong statistical evidence. Results Nulliparity and later age at menopause were associated with higher ER-positivity (p-trend=0.021 and 0.001, respectively), with corresponding OR[ER+] (95% CI) = 1.49 (1.16-1.90) for nulliparous vs. parous and 1.07 (1.03-1.11) per 5 years. Current combined menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use was associated with lower grade (p-trend<0.001), with OR [grade1] = 3.37 (2.69-4.21) for current vs. never users. Higher BMI was associated with lower ER-positivity and higher grade in premenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[ER+] = 0.80 (0.74-0.87) and OR[grade1] = 0.75 (0.63-0.88) per 5 units, and with higher PR-positivity and higher grade in postmenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[PR+] = 1.08 (1.03-1.14) and OR[grade 3] = 1.10 (1.04-1.17) per 5 units. Conclusion This pooled analysis of 15,731 cases showed that nulliparity, age at menopause, MHT, and BMI have independent, dose-response associations with ER, PR, and grade, clarifying patterns of etiologic heterogeneity. Associations with HER2, KI67 and TP53, or other risk factors did not meet our threshold for strong evidence.

Abstract Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which quantify inherited susceptibility to complex traits and diseases, have emerged as valuable tools for risk stratification and precision medicine. Despite their promise, PRS developed on European cohorts often demonstrate substantially reduced predictive accuracy in non-European populations, due to differences in genetic architecture. The disproportionate representation of European ancestry cohorts in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) leads to inequitable deployment of PRS technologies across diverse populations. Here, we introduce PRANA (Polygenic Risk Adaptation via Neural-network Architecture), a deep learning framework that adapts an existing PRS developed on one population to other ancestries. Unlike methods that require large-scale GWAS in the target population, PRANA leverages pre-trained PRS models derived from European cohorts and adapts them using modestly sized cohorts from the target population. We evaluated PRANA on seven complex traits in South Asian, East Asian and Ashkenazi Jewish populations, as well as in selected smaller East Asian subpopulations where the scarcity of training data poses a particular challenge. PRANA mostly improved predictive performance of the baseline PRS models by 5%-20% in terms of effect size (β) and Nagelkerke’s R², and, in most cases, outperformed existing cross-ancestry multi-PRS approaches. These results highlight PRANA as a scalable and practical strategy to reduce disparities in genomic risk prediction and advance the equitable application of PRS in diverse populations.

Background: Considering the pathophysiological importance of the intestine-passing microbiota, we hypothesized that the mutational and microbial profiles of colorectal cancer might gradually change along detailed anatomical locations and that these trends might differ by the age of diagnosis and the microsatellite instability (MSI) status. Methods: We assessed somatic mutations and selected bacterial species in colorectal carcinomas along the cecum, ascending colon, transverse colon, descending colon, sigmoid colon, and rectum, utilizing targeted sequencing data ( N = 5685) from the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and tissue microbial data ( N = 1389) from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and Nurses’ Health Study. Results: There were decreasing trends from the cecum to rectum in the prevalence of gene mutations in the IGF/PI3K, receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK)/RAS, TGFB, and WNT signaling pathways (all P trend < 0.0001), as well as high levels of Bacteroides fragilis ( P trend < 0.0001) and high levels of Fusobacterium nucleatum ( P trend = 0.0029) (but not enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis or pks+ Escherichia coli ). Conversely, TP53 pathway mutations showed an increasing cecum-to-rectum trend ( P trend < 0.0001). Similar to later-onset cases diagnosed at ages 50 years and older, in early-onset cases diagnosed under the age of 50 years, we found generally decreasing cecum-to-rectum trends of IGF/PI3K, RTK/RAS, TGFB, and WNT pathway mutations and an increasing cecum-to-rectum trend in TP53 pathway mutations. By contrast, the cecum-to-rectum prevalence-changing trends in IGF/PI3K, RTK/RAS, TGFB, and TP53 pathway mutations were present in non–MSI-high tumors but not in MSI-high tumors (all P interaction < 0.0052). Conclusion: Non–MSI-high colorectal cancers exhibited decreasing cecum-to-rectum trends of IGF/PI3K, RTK/RAS, and TGFB pathway mutations (and an increasing trend of TP53 pathway mutations), in contrast to MSI-high tumors that demonstrated no such trends. Our study highlights the importance of detailed colorectal subsite information combined with tumor molecular and microbial characteristics in colorectal cancer research.

Background: Breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRS) and traditional risk models (e.g., the Gail model [Gail]) are known to contribute largely independent information, but it is unclear how the overlap varies by ancestry, age, disease type (invasive breast cancer, DCIS), and risk threshold. Methods: In a retrospective case–control study, we evaluated risk prediction performance in 180,398 women (161,849 of European ancestry; 18,549 of Asian ancestry). Odds ratios (ORs) from logistic regression models and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were estimated. Results: PRS for invasive disease showed a stronger association in younger (<50 years) women (OR = 2.51, AUC = 0.622) than in women ≥ 50 years (OR = 2.06, AUC = 0.653) of European ancestry. PRS performance in Asians was lower (OR range = 1.62–1.64, AUC = 0.551–0.600). Gail performance was modest across groups and poor in younger Asian women (OR = 0.94–0.99, AUC = 0.523–0.533). Age interactions were observed for both PRS (p < 0.001) and Gail (p < 0.001) in Europeans, whereas in Asians, age interaction was observed only for Gail (invasive: p < 0.001; DCIS: p = 0.002). PRS identified more high-risk individuals than Gail in Asian populations, especially ≥50 years, while Gail identified more in Europeans. Overlap between PRS, Gail, and family history was limited at higher thresholds. Calibration analysis, comparing empirical and model-based ROC curves, showed divergence for both PRS and Gail (p < 0.001), which indicates miscalibration. In Europeans, family history and prior biopsies drove Gail discrimination. In younger Asians, age at first live birth was influential. Conclusions: PRS adds value to risk stratification beyond traditional tools, especially in younger women and Asian ancestry populations.

Abstract Background Physical activity is associated with lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but its association with molecular subtypes defined by genetic and epigenetic alterations of the disease is unclear. Such information may enhance the understanding of the mechanisms related to the benefits of physical activity. Methods Pooled observational (cases: n = 5386; controls: n = 6798; studies n = 5) and genome-wide association data (cases: n = 8178; controls: n = 10 472; studies n = 5) were used. We used multivariable logistic regression models and Mendelian randomization to assess the association between physical activity and the risk of CRC subtypes defined by individual tumor markers (and marker combinations), namely microsatellite instability status, CpG island methylator phenotype status, and BRAF and KRAS mutations. We used case-only analysis to test for differences between molecular subtypes. We applied Bonferroni correction to account for multiple tests. Results In the pooled observational analysis, higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower CRC risk (Obs-per 1SD, odds ratio [OR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90 to 0.97), with an association that was stronger in males (Obs-per 1SD, OR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.96) than in females (Obs-per 1SD, OR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.91 to 1.03; Pinteraction = .04). Higher physical activity was associated with a lower risk of CRC across all molecular subtypes, especially in males. There was no difference in the associations by subtypes by pooled observational or Mendelian randomization analyses. The findings did not differ by study design, anatomical site, and early or late age onset of CRC. Conclusions Our findings suggest that physical activity is not differentially associated with the 4 major molecular subtypes involved in colorectal carcinogenesis, indicating that its benefits extend broadly across colorectal cancer pathogenesis.

Abstract Introduction There is convincing evidence that overall adiposity increases the risks of several cancers. Whether the distribution of adiposity plays a similar role is unclear. Methods We used 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine causal relationships of 5 adiposity distribution traits (abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT); visceral adipose tissue (VAT); gluteofemoral adipose tissue (GFAT); liver fat; and pancreas fat) with the risks of 12 obesity-related cancers (endometrial, ovarian, breast, colorectal, pancreas, multiple myeloma, liver, kidney (renal cell), thyroid, gallbladder, esophageal adenocarcinoma, and meningioma). Results Sample size across all genome-wide association studies (GWAS) ranged from 8407 to 728 896 (median: 57 249). We found evidence that higher genetically predicted ASAT increased the risks of endometrial cancer, liver cancer, and esophageal adenocarcinoma (odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) per standard deviation (SD) higher ASAT = 1.79 (1.18 to 2.71), 3.83 (1.39 to 10.53), and 2.34 (1.15 to 4.78), respectively). Conversely, we found evidence that higher genetically predicted GFAT decreased the risks of breast cancer and meningioma (ORs and 95% CIs per SD higher genetically predicted GFAT = 0.77 (0.62 to 0.97) and 0.53 (0.32 to 0.90), respectively). We also found evidence for an effect of higher genetically predicted VAT and liver fat on increased liver cancer risk (ORs and 95% CIs per SD higher genetically predicted adiposity trait = 4.29 (1.41 to 13.07) and 4.09 (2.29 to 7.28), respectively). Discussion Our analyses provide novel insights into the relationship between adiposity distribution and cancer risk. These insights highlight the potential importance of adipose tissue distribution alongside maintaining a healthy weight for cancer prevention.

Abstract Background Physical activity (PA) is an established protective factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), but it is unclear if genetic variants modify this effect. To investigate this possibility, we conducted a genome-wide gene–PA interaction analysis. Methods Using logistic regression and two-step and joint tests, we analyzed interactions between common genetic variants across the genome and PA in relation to CRC risk. Self-reported PA levels were categorized as active (≥ 8.75 MET-h/wk) vs. inactive (< 8.75 MET-h/wk) and as study- and sex-specific quartiles of activity. Results PA had an overall protective effect on CRC (OR [active vs. inactive] = 0.85; 95%CI = 0.81–0.90). The two-step GxE method identified an interaction between rs4779584, an intergenic variant near the GREM1 and SCG5 genes, and PA for CRC risk (p-interaction = 2.6×10 − 8 ). Stratification by genotype at this locus showed a significant reduction in CRC risk by 20% in active vs. inactive participants with the CC genotype (OR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.75–0.85), but no significant PA–CRC association among CT or TT carriers. When PA was modeled as quartiles, the 1-d.f. GxE test identified that rs56906466, an intergenic variant near the KCNG1 gene, modified the association between PA and CRC (p-interaction = 3.5×10 − 8 ). Stratification at this locus showed that increase in PA (highest vs. lowest quartile) was associated with a lower CRC risk solely among TT carriers (OR = 0.77; 95%CI = 0.72–0.82). Conclusions In summary, we identified two genetic variants that modified the association between PA and CRC risk. One of them, related to GREM1 and SCG5 , suggests that the bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)-related, inflammatory, and/or insulin signaling pathways may be associated with the protective influence of PA on colorectal carcinogenesis.

ImportanceEtiologic heterogeneity in breast carcinogenesis needs to be well characterized for targeted prevention. Associations between menopausal hormonal therapy (MHT) and oral contraceptive (OC) use and breast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes are not well understood.ObjectiveTo examine whether exogenous hormone use is differentially associated with breast cancer subtypes and to evaluate heterogeneity by intrinsic-like subtypes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis study pooled data from 31 nested and population-based case-control studies involved in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The study population included individuals with breast cancer and control participants from 13 case-control studies nested in prospective cohorts (recruited between 1982 and 2011) and 18 population-based case-control studies (recruited between 1990 and 2013). Data analysis was performed in June 2024.ExposureMHT use (estrogen-progestin therapy [EPT] or estrogen-only therapy [ET]) in postmenopausal women and OC use in premenopausal women (never, past use, or current use).Main Outcomes and MeasuresBreast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A–like, luminal B–like, luminal B–ERBB2 [formerly HER2 or HER2/neu]-like, ERBB2 enriched–like, or triple-negative) were determined by immunohistochemistry of tumor sections. Polytomous logistic regression was performed to estimate the association between exogenous hormones and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes. Analyses by subtypes were stratified by body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]; healthy weight, 18.5-&amp;lt;25; overweight, 25-&amp;lt;30; or obesity, ≥30).ResultsThis study included 42 269 individuals with breast cancer (11 901 [28.2%] premenopausal and 30 368 [71.8%] postmenopausal; 23 353 [55.2%] had a known intrinsic-like subtype) and 71 072 control participants. The mean (SD) age of all participants was 57.9 (10.9) years. In postmenopausal women, associations between current MHT use (EPT or ET) and breast cancer differed by subtype. Current EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal A–like (odds ratio [OR], 2.51 [95% CI, 2.26-2.80]) or luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.61-2.37]) subtypes. These associations were attenuated but remained for individuals with overweight (OR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.02-1.92]) or obesity (OR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.01-2.78]). EPT use increased the odds of being diagnosed with luminal B–like tumors solely in women with healthy weight (OR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.17-1.86]). Current ET use was positively associated with luminal A–like disease in women with healthy weight only (OR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.32]), showing inverse associations with higher BMI (obesity: OR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.50-0.85]). In premenopausal women, recent OC use was associated with luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.09-2.08]), ERBB2 enriched–like (OR, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.55-3.51]), and triple-negative (OR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.33-2.29]; P &amp;lt; .04 for heterogeneity) tumors.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, clear differences were observed in associations between current EPT use and luminal-like breast cancer subtypes and other subtypes. EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal-like breast cancer compared with nonusers. Subtype heterogeneity was less apparent in associations of OC and ET use. Future studies on contemporary formulations, patterns of use, and routes of administration of exogenous hormone usage are warranted.

Importance Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) represents the third most common stroke type with unique etiologies, risk factors, diagnostics, and treatments. Nevertheless, epidemiological studies often cluster SAH with other stroke types leaving its distinct burden estimates obscure. Objective To estimate the worldwide burden of SAH. Design, Setting, and Participants Based on the repeated cross-sectional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the global burden of SAH in 1990 to 2021 was estimated. Moreover, the SAH burden was compared with other diseases, and its associations with 14 individual risk factors were investigated with available data in the GBD 2021 study. The GBD study included the burden estimates of nontraumatic SAH among all ages in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. Exposures SAH and 14 modifiable risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of SAH incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as well as risk factor–specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results In 2021, the global age-standardized SAH incidence was 8.3 (95% UI, 7.3-9.5), prevalence was 92.2 (95% UI, 84.1-100.6), mortality was 4.2 (95% UI, 3.7-4.8), and DALY rate was 125.2 (95% UI, 110.5-142.6) per 100 000 people. The highest burden estimates were found in Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and high-income Asia Pacific. Although the absolute number of SAH cases increased, especially in regions with a low sociodemographic index, all age-standardized burden rates decreased between 1990 and 2021: the incidence by 28.8% (95% UI, 25.7%-31.6%), prevalence by 16.1% (95% UI, 14.8%-17.7%), mortality by 56.1% (95% UI, 40.7%-64.3%), and DALY rate by 54.6% (95% UI, 42.8%-61.9%). Of 300 diseases, SAH ranked as the 36th most common cause of death and 59th most common cause of DALY in the world. Of all worldwide SAH-related DALYs, 71.6% (95% UI, 63.8%-78.6%) were associated with the 14 modeled risk factors of which high systolic blood pressure (population attributable fraction [PAF] = 51.6%; 95% UI, 38.0%-62.6%) and smoking (PAF = 14.4%; 95% UI, 12.4%-16.5%) had the highest attribution. Conclusions and Relevance Although the global age-standardized burden rates of SAH more than halved over the last 3 decades, SAH remained one of the most common cardiovascular and neurological causes of death and disabilities in the world, with increasing absolute case numbers. These findings suggest evidence for the potential health benefits of proactive public health planning and resource allocation toward the prevention of SAH.

SummaryBackgroundVarying obesogenic inherited predisposition in early to later life may differentially impact colorectal cancer (CRC) development. Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies, conducted in populations of European genetic similarity, have not observed any significant associations between early life body weight with CRC risk. However, it remains unclear whether body mass index (BMI) at different early lifetime points is causally related with CRC risk in both Europeans and East Asian populations.ObjectivesWe conducted a two‐sample MR study to investigate potential causal relationships between genetically predicted BMI during early life (birth to 8 years old) and at specific periods (birth, transient, early rise and late rise) and CRC risk.MethodsSummary data were obtained from genome‐wide association study (GWAS) of BMI in 28 681 children from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) study and applied to CRC GWAS data from European and East Asian descent populations (102 893 cases and 485 083 non‐cases).ResultsThere were no significant associations observed between early life BMI and CRC risk in European or East Asian populations. The effect estimates were similar in European studies (odds ratio [OR] per a 1‐standard deviation [SD] increase: 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95, 1.07) and in East Asians (OR per a 1‐SD increase: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.14). Similar nonsignificant associations were found between time of BMI measurement during childhood and cancer‐site‐specific analyses.ConclusionsWe found little evidence of any associations between early life adiposity on later life CRC risk.