Fortner, Renée T.

Background: Several breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models have been developed to provide personal risk assessments. Though individually validated, their performance has not been systematically evaluated across a wide range of populations or ages. Methods: We harmonized individual-level baseline questionnaire data and incident BC diagnoses from 21 cohorts from North America, Europe, and Australia participating in the Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project. Five-year absolute risk of invasive BC was estimated for five established risk prediction models using classical risk factors only. Discrimination was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using average and risk-decile specific expected to observed (E/O) ratios. Performance metrics were meta-analyzed across cohorts and models. Metaregression tested associations between cohort characteristics and performance metrics. Results: This analysis included 1,595,977 women aged 20-75 years, enrolled in studies between 1976-2015, with 19,062 (1.2%) invasive BC cases ascertained within 5 years from exposure assessment. Age-adjusted AUCs were similar across models and cohorts (pooled AUCs by model: 0.57-0.58), while E/O ratios varied substantially (pooled E/O ratios by model: 0.83-1.25). Overestimation was common among predicted high-risk individuals (>3%). No appreciable differences in model performance by cohort age, birth year, race, and variable missingness emerged. Calibration improved after assigning race-specific incidence rates. Conclusion: Existing BC risk prediction models provided similar risk discrimination across multiple cohorts, although there was overestimation of risk for high-risk individuals. Performance variation across cohorts was not driven by specific characteristics, which supports development of a unified risk model for diverse populations that leverages appropriate incidence rates.

Abstract BRCA-associated homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) is present in ~ 50% of high-grade serous carcinomas (HGSC) and predicts sensitivity to platinum-based therapy. However, there is little understanding of why some patients with BRCA-deficient tumors experience unexpectedly poor outcomes. We profiled 154 tumors, enriched for patients with BRCA-deficient tumors that experienced short overall survival (≤ 3 years, n = 42), using whole-genome, transcriptome, and methylation analyses. All but one BRCA-deficient tumor exceeded an accepted HRD genomic scarring threshold. However, patients with BRCA1-deficient HGSC with a more elevated HRD score survived significantly longer. Patients with BRCA2-deficient HGSC and loss of NF1 survived twice as long as those without NF1 loss, whereas PIK3CA or RAD21 amplification defined BRCA2-deficient HGSC with exceptionally short survival. BRCA1-deficient tumors in short survivors had evidence of immunosuppressive c-kit signaling and EMT. In a large HGSC cohort (n = 1,389) including 282 individuals with pathogenic germline BRCA variants (gBRCApv), the location of the mutation within functional domains stratified clinical outcomes. Notably, residual disease after primary surgery had limited prognostic effect in gBRCApv-carriers compared to non-carriers. Our findings indicate that tumor HR proficiency in the context of therapy response and survival is not a binary property, and highlight genomic and immune modifiers of outcomes in BRCA-deficient HGSC.

ImportanceEtiologic heterogeneity in breast carcinogenesis needs to be well characterized for targeted prevention. Associations between menopausal hormonal therapy (MHT) and oral contraceptive (OC) use and breast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes are not well understood.ObjectiveTo examine whether exogenous hormone use is differentially associated with breast cancer subtypes and to evaluate heterogeneity by intrinsic-like subtypes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis study pooled data from 31 nested and population-based case-control studies involved in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The study population included individuals with breast cancer and control participants from 13 case-control studies nested in prospective cohorts (recruited between 1982 and 2011) and 18 population-based case-control studies (recruited between 1990 and 2013). Data analysis was performed in June 2024.ExposureMHT use (estrogen-progestin therapy [EPT] or estrogen-only therapy [ET]) in postmenopausal women and OC use in premenopausal women (never, past use, or current use).Main Outcomes and MeasuresBreast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A–like, luminal B–like, luminal B–ERBB2 [formerly HER2 or HER2/neu]-like, ERBB2 enriched–like, or triple-negative) were determined by immunohistochemistry of tumor sections. Polytomous logistic regression was performed to estimate the association between exogenous hormones and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes. Analyses by subtypes were stratified by body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]; healthy weight, 18.5-<25; overweight, 25-<30; or obesity, ≥30).ResultsThis study included 42 269 individuals with breast cancer (11 901 [28.2%] premenopausal and 30 368 [71.8%] postmenopausal; 23 353 [55.2%] had a known intrinsic-like subtype) and 71 072 control participants. The mean (SD) age of all participants was 57.9 (10.9) years. In postmenopausal women, associations between current MHT use (EPT or ET) and breast cancer differed by subtype. Current EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal A–like (odds ratio [OR], 2.51 [95% CI, 2.26-2.80]) or luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.61-2.37]) subtypes. These associations were attenuated but remained for individuals with overweight (OR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.02-1.92]) or obesity (OR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.01-2.78]). EPT use increased the odds of being diagnosed with luminal B–like tumors solely in women with healthy weight (OR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.17-1.86]). Current ET use was positively associated with luminal A–like disease in women with healthy weight only (OR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.32]), showing inverse associations with higher BMI (obesity: OR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.50-0.85]). In premenopausal women, recent OC use was associated with luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.09-2.08]), ERBB2 enriched–like (OR, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.55-3.51]), and triple-negative (OR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.33-2.29]; P < .04 for heterogeneity) tumors.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, clear differences were observed in associations between current EPT use and luminal-like breast cancer subtypes and other subtypes. EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal-like breast cancer compared with nonusers. Subtype heterogeneity was less apparent in associations of OC and ET use. Future studies on contemporary formulations, patterns of use, and routes of administration of exogenous hormone usage are warranted.

Abstract Breast cancer risk assessment tools are widely used in clinical practice to guide decisions regarding screening timing and modality, lifestyle interventions, genetic testing, preventive therapy, and risk-reducing surgery. Although a number of tools designed for the general population are used in practice, they face a series of challenges including: (i) modest discriminatory ability due to lack of a unified model that flexibly incorporates a comprehensive set of risk factors; (ii) inability to produce subtype-specific risk estimates, relevant for tailoring screening and/or preventive strategies (e.g. prophylactic endocrine therapy that is effective only for hormone receptor positive tumors); (iii) lack of data from diverse populations to build models that work well for all women; and, (iv) scarcity of opportunities for comparative validation of different models. The Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project (BCRPP), a collaboration currently including 20 prospective cohorts from the National Cancer Institute’s Cohort Consortium, is addressing these challenges by harmonizing, sharing, and analyzing data on over 1.8 million women, over 115, 000 of whom have developed breast cancer. The BCRPP is developing a comprehensive tool that will predict breast cancer risk, overall and by subtypes, across major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. This tool incorporates known and emerging risk factors (e.g. reproductive history, anthropometry, smoking, alcohol intake, medication use, mammography, family history, and measured genotypes). In parallel to model building and validation efforts, BCRPP investigators are developing privacy-preserving web and mobile interfaces to deliver the risk tools to patients and clinicians. Here we present descriptive data on participating cohorts (e.g. dates of enrollment, ages at enrollment, length of follow up, numbers of cases by subtype), summarize missing data patterns and our approach to model development and validation that accounts for heterogeneity in missingness patterns across cohorts, and describe data governance procedures and data sharing infrastructure (including pooled and federated analyses, to account for policy limitations on sharing individual data). Descriptive information and procedures for requesting and accessing data are available via the BCRPP data platform (https://epidataplatforms.cancer.gov/bcrpp/). Although originally assembled for risk model development, these data on a large and diverse sample of women with extensive harmonized risk factors and covariates can be a resource to address other outstanding questions in breast cancer epidemiology across time, the lifecourse, and diverse populations. Citation Format: Peter Kraft, Laura Beane-Freeman, Julie Palmer, Ellen O'Meara, Jeanine Genkinger, James Lacey, Thomas Rohan, Lauren Teras, Marian L. Neuhouser, Kala Visvanathan, Celine Vachon, Roger Milne, Christopher Haiman, Yu Chen, Heather Eliassen, Cari Kitahara, Katie O'Brien, Emily White, Garnet Anderson, I-Min Lee, Archie Campbell, Renee Fortner, Ylva Lagerros, Sven Sandin, Mia Gaudet, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Nilanjan Chatterjee. The Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project: a resource of 1.8 million women with diverse backgrounds from 20 prospective cohorts to improve breast cancer risk prediction and advance breast cancer epidemiology [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_1):Abstract nr 3583.

BACKGROUND Despite an overall poor prognosis, about 15% of patients with advanced-stage tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) survive 10 or more years after standard treatment. METHODS We evaluated the tumor microenvironment of this exceptional, understudied group using a large international cohort enriched for long-term survivors (LTS; 10+ years; n = 374) compared with mid-term (MTS; 5–7.99 years; n = 433) and short-term survivors (STS; 2–4.99 years; n = 416). Primary tumor samples were immunostained and scored for intraepithelial and intrastromal densities of 10 immune-cell subsets (including T cells, B cells, plasma cells, myeloid cells, PD-1 + cells, and PD-L1 + cells) and epithelial content. RESULTS Positive associations with LTS compared with STS were seen for 9 of 10 immune-cell subsets. In particular, the combination of intraepithelial CD8 + T cells and intrastromal B cells showed near 5-fold increased odds of LTS compared with STS. All of these associations were stronger in tumors with high epithelial content and/or the C4/Differentiated molecular subtype, despite immune-cell densities generally being higher in tumors with low epithelial content and/or the C2/Immunoreactive molecular subtype. CONCLUSION The tumor microenvironment of HGSC LTS is distinguished by the intersection of T and B cell coinfiltration, high epithelial content, and C4/differentiated molecular subtype, features which may inspire new approaches to immunotherapy. FUNDING Ovarian Cancer Research Program (OCRP) of the Congressionally Directed Medical Research Program (CDMRP), U.S. Department of Defense (DOD); American Cancer Society; BC Cancer Foundation; Canada’s Networks of Centres of Excellence; Canadian Cancer Society; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Tasmania, Cancer Foundation of Western Australia; Cancer Institute NSW; Cancer Research UK; Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft; ELAN Funds of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg; Fred C. and Katherine B. Andersen Foundation; Genome BC; German Cancer Research Center; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Programme of Clinical Biomedical Research; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Mayo Foundation; Minnesota Ovarian Cancer Alliance; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; Medical Research Council (MRC); National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences; National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC); Ovarian Cancer Australia; Peter MacCallum Foundation; Sydney West Translational Cancer Research Centre; Terry Fox Research Institute; The Eve Appeal (The Oak Foundation); UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at the University of Cambridge; University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine; U.S. National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health; VGH & UBC Hospital Foundation; Victorian Cancer Agency.

Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate RB1 expression and survival across ovarian carcinoma histotypes and how co-occurrence of BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA) alterations and RB1 loss influences survival in tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC). Experimental Design: RB1 protein expression was classified by immunohistochemistry in ovarian carcinomas of 7,436 patients from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. We examined RB1 expression and germline BRCA status in a subset of 1,134 HGSC, and related genotype to overall survival (OS), tumor-infiltrating CD8+ lymphocytes, and transcriptomic subtypes. Using CRISPR-Cas9, we deleted RB1 in HGSC cells with and without BRCA1 alterations to model co-loss with treatment response. We performed whole-genome and transcriptome data analyses on 126 patients with primary HGSC to characterize tumors with concurrent BRCA deficiency and RB1 loss. Results: RB1 loss was associated with longer OS in HGSC but with poorer prognosis in endometrioid ovarian carcinoma. Patients with HGSC harboring both RB1 loss and pathogenic germline BRCA variants had superior OS compared with patients with either alteration alone, and their median OS was three times longer than those without pathogenic BRCA variants and retained RB1 expression (9.3 vs. 3.1 years). Enhanced sensitivity to cisplatin and paclitaxel was seen in BRCA1-altered cells with RB1 knockout. Combined RB1 loss and BRCA deficiency correlated with transcriptional markers of enhanced IFN response, cell-cycle deregulation, and reduced epithelial–mesenchymal transition. CD8+ lymphocytes were most prevalent in BRCA-deficient HGSC with co-loss of RB1. Conclusions: Co-occurrence of RB1 loss and BRCA deficiency was associated with exceptionally long survival in patients with HGSC, potentially due to better treatment response and immune stimulation.

AbstractOur objective was to test whether p53 expression status is associated with survival for women diagnosed with the most common ovarian carcinoma histotypes (high‐grade serous carcinoma [HGSC], endometrioid carcinoma [EC], and clear cell carcinoma [CCC]) using a large multi‐institutional cohort from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis (OTTA) consortium. p53 expression was assessed on 6,678 cases represented on tissue microarrays from 25 participating OTTA study sites using a previously validated immunohistochemical (IHC) assay as a surrogate for the presence and functional effect of TP53 mutations. Three abnormal expression patterns (overexpression, complete absence, and cytoplasmic) and the normal (wild type) pattern were recorded. Survival analyses were performed by histotype. The frequency of abnormal p53 expression was 93.4% (4,630/4,957) in HGSC compared to 11.9% (116/973) in EC and 11.5% (86/748) in CCC. In HGSC, there were no differences in overall survival across the abnormal p53 expression patterns. However, in EC and CCC, abnormal p53 expression was associated with an increased risk of death for women diagnosed with EC in multivariate analysis compared to normal p53 as the reference (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36–3.47, p = 0.0011) and with CCC (HR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.11–2.22, p = 0.012). Abnormal p53 was also associated with shorter overall survival in The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage I/II EC and CCC. Our study provides further evidence that functional groups of TP53 mutations assessed by abnormal surrogate p53 IHC patterns are not associated with survival in HGSC. In contrast, we validate that abnormal p53 IHC is a strong independent prognostic marker for EC and demonstrate for the first time an independent prognostic association of abnormal p53 IHC with overall survival in patients with CCC.

Abstract Background The role of ovulation in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is supported by the consistent protective effects of parity and oral contraceptive use. Whether these factors protect through anovulation alone remains unclear. We explored the association between lifetime ovulatory years (LOY) and EOC. Methods LOY was calculated using 12 algorithms. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) estimated the association between LOY or LOY components and EOC among 26 204 control participants and 21 267 case patients from 25 studies. To assess whether LOY components act through ovulation suppression alone, we compared beta coefficients obtained from regression models with expected estimates assuming 1 year of ovulation suppression has the same effect regardless of source. Results LOY was associated with increased EOC risk (OR per year increase = 1.014, 95% CI = 1.009 to 1.020 to OR per year increase = 1.044, 95% CI = 1.041 to 1.048). Individual LOY components, except age at menarche, also associated with EOC. The estimated model coefficient for oral contraceptive use and pregnancies were 4.45 times and 12- to 15-fold greater than expected, respectively. LOY was associated with high-grade serous, low-grade serous, endometrioid, and clear cell histotypes (ORs per year increase = 1.054, 1.040, 1.065, and 1.098, respectively) but not mucinous tumors. Estimated coefficients of LOY components were close to expected estimates for high-grade serous but larger than expected for low-grade serous, endometrioid, and clear cell histotypes. Conclusions LOY is positively associated with nonmucinous EOC. Differences between estimated and expected model coefficients for LOY components suggest factors beyond ovulation underlie the associations between LOY components and EOC in general and for non-HGSOC.

AbstractBackgroundKnown risk alleles for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) account for approximately 40% of the heritability for EOC. Copy number variants (CNVs) have not been investigated as EOC risk alleles in a large population cohort.MethodsSingle nucleotide polymorphism array data from 13 071 EOC cases and 17 306 controls of White European ancestry were used to identify CNVs associated with EOC risk using a rare admixture maximum likelihood test for gene burden and a by-probe ratio test. We performed enrichment analysis of CNVs at known EOC risk loci and functional biofeatures in ovarian cancer–related cell types.ResultsWe identified statistically significant risk associations with CNVs at known EOC risk genes; BRCA1 (PEOC = 1.60E-21; OREOC = 8.24), RAD51C (Phigh-grade serous ovarian cancer [HGSOC] = 5.5E-4; odds ratio [OR]HGSOC = 5.74 del), and BRCA2 (PHGSOC = 7.0E-4; ORHGSOC = 3.31 deletion). Four suggestive associations (P < .001) were identified for rare CNVs. Risk-associated CNVs were enriched (P < .05) at known EOC risk loci identified by genome-wide association study. Noncoding CNVs were enriched in active promoters and insulators in EOC-related cell types.ConclusionsCNVs in BRCA1 have been previously reported in smaller studies, but their observed frequency in this large population-based cohort, along with the CNVs observed at BRCA2 and RAD51C gene loci in EOC cases, suggests that these CNVs are potentially pathogenic and may contribute to the spectrum of disease-causing mutations in these genes. CNVs are likely to occur in a wider set of susceptibility regions, with potential implications for clinical genetic testing and disease prevention.

Abstract ARID1A (BAF250a) is a component of the SWI/SNF chromatin modifying complex, plays an important tumour suppressor role, and is considered prognostic in several malignancies. However, in ovarian carcinomas there are contradictory reports on its relationship to outcome, immune response, and correlation with clinicopathological features. We assembled a series of 1623 endometriosis‐associated ovarian carcinomas, including 1078 endometrioid (ENOC) and 545 clear cell (CCOC) ovarian carcinomas, through combining resources of the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis (OTTA) Consortium, the Canadian Ovarian Unified Experimental Resource (COEUR), local, and collaborative networks. Validated immunohistochemical surrogate assays for ARID1A mutations were applied to all samples. We investigated associations between ARID1A loss/mutation, clinical features, outcome, CD8 + tumour‐infiltrating lymphocytes (CD8 + TILs), and DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd). ARID1A loss was observed in 42% of CCOCs and 25% of ENOCs. We found no associations between ARID1A loss and outcomes, stage, age, or CD8 + TIL status in CCOC. Similarly, we found no association with outcome or stage in endometrioid cases. In ENOC, ARID1A loss was more prevalent in younger patients ( p = 0.012) and was associated with MMRd ( p < 0.001) and the presence of CD8 + TILs ( p = 0.008). Consistent with MMRd being causative of ARID1A mutations, in a subset of ENOCs we also observed an association with ARID1A loss‐of‐function mutation as a result of small indels ( p = 0.035, versus single nucleotide variants). In ENOC, the association with ARID1A loss, CD8 + TILs, and age appears confounded by MMRd status. Although this observation does not explicitly rule out a role for ARID1A influence on CD8 + TIL infiltration in ENOC, given current knowledge regarding MMRd, it seems more likely that effects are dominated by the hypermutation phenotype. This large dataset with consistently applied biomarker assessment now provides a benchmark for the prevalence of ARID1A loss‐of‐function mutations in endometriosis‐associated ovarian cancers and brings clarity to the prognostic significance. © 2021 The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.