Linet, Martha S.

Background: Several breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models have been developed to provide personal risk assessments. Though individually validated, their performance has not been systematically evaluated across a wide range of populations or ages. Methods: We harmonized individual-level baseline questionnaire data and incident BC diagnoses from 21 cohorts from North America, Europe, and Australia participating in the Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project. Five-year absolute risk of invasive BC was estimated for five established risk prediction models using classical risk factors only. Discrimination was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using average and risk-decile specific expected to observed (E/O) ratios. Performance metrics were meta-analyzed across cohorts and models. Metaregression tested associations between cohort characteristics and performance metrics. Results: This analysis included 1,595,977 women aged 20-75 years, enrolled in studies between 1976-2015, with 19,062 (1.2%) invasive BC cases ascertained within 5 years from exposure assessment. Age-adjusted AUCs were similar across models and cohorts (pooled AUCs by model: 0.57-0.58), while E/O ratios varied substantially (pooled E/O ratios by model: 0.83-1.25). Overestimation was common among predicted high-risk individuals (>3%). No appreciable differences in model performance by cohort age, birth year, race, and variable missingness emerged. Calibration improved after assigning race-specific incidence rates. Conclusion: Existing BC risk prediction models provided similar risk discrimination across multiple cohorts, although there was overestimation of risk for high-risk individuals. Performance variation across cohorts was not driven by specific characteristics, which supports development of a unified risk model for diverse populations that leverages appropriate incidence rates.

Abstract Background: Epidemiologic and other studies have identified environmental, occupational, and genetic risk factors for lymphoid and myeloid malignancies, but most studies have been conducted in Western populations. Investigations in populations with differing exposure patterns, distributions of disease subtypes, and genetic architecture are needed to fully understand hematopoietic tumor etiology. Methods: We conducted a large, multicenter, hospital-based case-control study of lymphoid and myeloid neoplasms in East Asia (AsiaLymph), including 5,671 lymphoid cases, 1,879 myeloid cases, and 3,858 controls. Participants completed a computer-assisted personal interview and provided biospecimens. Cases underwent central pathology review and were coded into the WHO Classification. Herein, we describe the study methods in detail and report association results for education, body mass index, and family history. Results: Greater BMI at age 20 but not at age 40 was associated with odds of total lymphoid neoplasm (per 5 kg/m2 increase: OR [95% CI]: 1.18 [1.09-1.27]), total myeloid neoplasm (OR [95% CI]: 1.17 [1.05-1.29]), and several subtypes. Greater educational attainment was associated with increased odds of total lymphoid neoplasm (for college vs. less than primary education: OR [95% CI]: 1.41 [1.21-1.65]) but not myeloid neoplasm (OR [95% CI]: 1.17 [0.95-1.45]; p-heterogeneity=0.02). There were also positive associations between family history of hematologic cancer in first degree relatives and odds of lymphoid neoplasm (OR [95% CI]: 1.53 [1.15-2.03]) and myeloid neoplasm (OR [95% CI]: 1.65 [1.11-2.44]) and specific subtypes. None of the evaluated risk factors were associated with NK/T-cell lymphoma, which supports a distinct etiology for this subtype. Conclusion: The AsiaLymph Study is one of the largest molecular epidemiology studies of both lymphoid and myeloid neoplasms with standardized World Health Organization classification of histopathologic subtypes and will serve as a valuable resource for etiologic investigations into risk factors for these malignancies. Citation Format: Qing Lan, Lauren M. Hurwitz, John K. Chan, Tai Hing Lam, Kexin Chen, Yok Lam Kwong, Xu Caigang, Brian CH Chiu, Raymond Liang, Ip Dennis, Wei Hu, Bryan Bassig, Mark Purdue, Jun Xu, Sarah Locke, Sophia S. Wang, James R. Cerhan, Sonja Berndt, Jonathan N. Hofmann, Jianxin Shi, Kai Yu, Shahinaz Gadalla, Lisa J. McReynolds, Rena Jones, Hongji Dai, Zhangyan Lyu, Lugui Qiu, Wei Liu, Huilai Zhang, Xianhuo Wang, Lindsay M. Morton, Stephen Chanock, Martha Linet, Melissa C. Friesen, Roel Vermeulen, Nathaniel Rothman. A multi-center hospital-based case-control study of lymphoid and myeloid neoplasms (AsiaLymph): Study design and initial findings for education, body mass index, and family history [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 5051.

PURPOSE There is strong evidence that leisure-time physical activity is protective against postmenopausal breast cancer risk but the association with premenopausal breast cancer is less clear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical activity with the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer. METHODS We pooled individual-level data on self-reported leisure-time physical activity across 19 cohort studies comprising 547,601 premenopausal women, with 10,231 incident cases of breast cancer. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of leisure-time physical activity with breast cancer incidence. HRs for high versus low levels of activity were based on a comparison of risk at the 90th versus 10th percentiles of activity. We assessed the linearity of the relationship and examined subtype-specific associations and effect modification across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including adiposity. RESULTS Over a median 11.5 years of follow-up (IQR, 8.0-16.1 years), high versus low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with a 6% (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]) and a 10% (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95]) reduction in breast cancer risk, before and after adjustment for BMI, respectively. Tests of nonlinearity suggested an approximately linear relationship ( Pnonlinearity = .94). The inverse association was particularly strong for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–enriched breast cancer (HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84]; Phet = .07). Associations did not vary significantly across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including subgroups of adiposity. CONCLUSION This large, pooled analysis of cohort studies adds to evidence that engagement in higher levels of leisure-time physical activity may lead to reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk.

Abstract Background: A previous International Lymphoma Epidemiology (InterLymph) Consortium evaluation of joint associations between five immune gene variants and autoimmune conditions reported interactions between B-cell response-mediated autoimmune conditions and the rs1800629 genotype on risk of B-cell non–Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) subtypes. Here, we extend that evaluation using NHL subtype-specific polygenic risk scores (PRS) constructed from loci identified in genome-wide association studies of three common B-cell NHL subtypes. Methods: In a pooled analysis of NHL cases and controls of Caucasian descent from 14 participating InterLymph studies, we evaluated joint associations between B-cell–mediated autoimmune conditions and tertile (T) of PRS for risk of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL; n = 1,914), follicular lymphoma (n = 1,733), and marginal zone lymphoma (MZL; n = 407), using unconditional logistic regression. Results: We demonstrated a positive association of DLBCL PRS with DLBCL risk [T2 vs. T1: OR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08–1.43; T3 vs. T1: OR = 1.81; 95% CI, 1.59–2.07; P-trend (Ptrend) < 0.0001]. DLBCL risk also increased with increasing PRS tertile among those with an autoimmune condition, being highest for those with a B-cell–mediated autoimmune condition and a T3 PRS [OR = 6.46 vs. no autoimmune condition and a T1 PRS, Ptrend < 0.0001, P-interaction (Pinteraction) = 0.49]. Follicular lymphoma and MZL risk demonstrated no evidence of joint associations or significant Pinteraction. Conclusions: Our results suggest that PRS constructed from currently known subtype-specific loci may not necessarily capture biological pathways shared with autoimmune conditions. Impact: Targeted genetic (PRS) screening among population subsets with autoimmune conditions may offer opportunities for identifying those at highest risk for (and early detection from) DLBCL.

Abstract Background: Use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is associated with increased risk for breast cancer. However, the relevant mechanisms and its interaction with genetic variants are not fully understood. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide interaction analysis between MHT use and genetic variants for breast cancer risk in 27,585 cases and 34,785 controls from 26 observational studies. All women were post-menopausal and of European ancestry. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test for multiplicative interactions between genetic variants and current MHT use. We considered interaction p-values<5x10-8 as genome-wide significant, and p-values<1x10-5 as suggestive. Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based clumping was performed to identify independent candidate variants.Results: None of the 9.7 million genetic variants tested for interactions with MHT use reached genome-wide significance. Only 213 variants, representing 18 independent loci, had p-values<1x105. The strongest evidence was found for rs4674019 (p-value=2.27x10-7), which showed genome-wide significant interaction (p-value=3.8x10-8) with current MHT use when analysis was restricted to population-based studies only. Limiting the analyses to combined estrogen-progesterone MHT use only or to estrogen receptor (ER) positive cases did not identify any genome-wide significant evidence of interactions. Conclusions: In this large genome-wide SNP-MHT interaction study of breast cancer, we found no strong support for common genetic variants modifying the effect of MHT on breast cancer risk. These results suggest that common genetic variation has limited impact on the observed MHT–breast cancer risk association.

Abstract BackgroundCopy number variants (CNVs) are pervasive in the human genome but potential disease associations with rare CNVs have not been comprehensively assessed in large datasets. We analysed rare CNVs in genes and non-coding regions for 86,788 breast cancer cases and 76,122 controls of European ancestry with genome-wide array data.ResultsGene burden tests detected the strongest association for deletions in BRCA1 (P= 3.7E-18). Nine other genes were associated with a p-value < 0.01 including known susceptibility genes CHEK2 (P= 0.0008), ATM (P= 0.002) and BRCA2 (P= 0.008). Outside the known genes we detected associations with p-values < 0.001 for either overall or subtype-specific breast cancer at nine deletion regions and four duplication regions. Three of the deletion regions were in established common susceptibility loci.ConclusionsThis is the first genome-wide analysis of rare CNVs in a large breast cancer case-control dataset. We detected associations with exonic deletions in established breast cancer susceptibility genes. We also detected suggestive associations with non-coding CNVs in known and novel loci with large effects sizes. Larger sample sizes will be required to reach robust levels of statistical significance.

Abstract Background: Use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is associated with increased risk for breast cancer. However, the relevant mechanisms and its interaction with genetic variants are not fully understood. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide interaction analysis between MHT use and genetic variants for breast cancer risk in 27,585 cases and 34,785 controls from 26 observational studies. All women were post-menopausal and of European ancestry. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test for multiplicative interactions between genetic variants and current MHT use. We considered interaction p-values<5x10-8 as genome-wide significant, and p-values<1x10-5 as suggestive. Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based clumping was performed to identify independent candidate variants.Results: None of the 9.7 million genetic variants tested for interactions with MHT use reached genome-wide significance. Only 213 variants, representing 18 independent loci, had p-values<1x105. The strongest evidence was found for rs4674019 (p-value=2.27x10-7), which showed genome-wide significant interaction (p-value=3.8x10-8) with current MHT use when analysis was restricted to population-based studies only. Limiting the analyses to combined estrogen-progesterone MHT use only or to estrogen receptor (ER) positive cases did not identify any genome-wide significant evidence of interactions. Conclusions: In this large genome-wide SNP-MHT interaction study of breast cancer, we found no strong support for common genetic variants modifying the effect of MHT on breast cancer risk. These results suggest that common genetic variation has limited impact on the observed MHT–breast cancer risk association.

Abstract We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer.

Abstract Subtle differences in immune response may play a role in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) etiology. Because adult immune response may be influenced by early childhood exposures, we examined the role of childhood crowding, history of atopic disease, and other childhood immune-related exposures on the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in a multi-center case-control study. Interviews were completed with 1,321 cases ascertained from population-based cancer registries in Seattle, Detroit, Los Angeles and Iowa, and with 1,057 frequency-matched controls, selected by random-digit dialing and from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) database. The association between NHL risk in relation to atopy and other exposures was assessed using multivariable logistic regression methods. Most types of allergy were associated with protection from NHL, with hay fever especially protective against all NHL combined (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]= 0.54–0.94), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [DLBCL] (OR=0.61, 95% CI=0.41–0.91), and follicular lymphoma (OR=0.70, 95% CI=0.45–1.09). A history of eczema increased risk of follicular lymphoma (OR=1.92, 95% CI= 1.08–3.41) but not DLBCL (OR=1.06, 95% CI= 0.55.2.04). Asthma in childhood was not associated with risk of NHL. Risk of DLBCL (OR =1.72, 95% CI=1.17–2.52), but not follicular lymphoma (OR=1.15, 95% CI=0.75–1.76) was elevated for the youngest compared to the oldest of siblings. Neither number of siblings nor years between births of siblings were significantly associated with risk. These results suggest that some immune-related exposures may affect NHL risk.

Abstract Background. The incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) has increased dramatically since at least the 1950s, and only a fraction of this increase can be explained by established risk factors. During this timeframe, there has been a major increase in the use of blood transfusions, anesthesia, and invasive surgical procedures, all of which can impact immune function. Methods. We conducted a population-based case-control study from 1998–2000 using SEER cancer registries in Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles and Seattle. NHL cases (N=759) were newly diagnosed, HIV-negative, and aged 20–74 years. Controls (N=589) were identified through random digit dialing (<65 years old) and Medicare files (age 65 years and older), and were frequency matched to cases on sex, age, race, and study site. Data on history of blood transfusions, anesthetics (general and regional), and surgeries (type, frequency, and age for 21 anatomic regions) >1 year before diagnosis (or date of enrollment for controls) were collected during in-person interviews. Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for the matching factors. NHL subtypes (follicular and diffuse) were designated according to SEER cancer registry pathology reports, and risk of each subtype was estimated using polychotomous logistic regression. Results. History of blood transfusion was weakly associated with increased risk of NHL (OR=1.26; 95% CI 0.91–1.73), and the elevated risk was specific to transfusions first given 5 to 29 years before diagnosis (OR=1.69; 95% CI 1.08–2.62). Risk was also specific to blood transfusions given for a medical indication (OR=2.09; 95% CI 1.03–4.26), while transfusions given for trauma, obstetric or surgical indications were not associated with risk. Exposure to general or regional anesthesia (OR=1.35 for 24+ times compared to 0–6; 95% CI 0.91–2.02) and total number of surgeries (OR=1.22 for 7+ surgeries compared to 0; 95% CI 0.77–1.93) were weakly and positively associated with risk of NHL, although neither association achieved statistical significance. Results were similar for general versus regional anesthesia. In analysis of surgeries at specific anatomic sites, there were no associations with NHL risk, except for a suggestive positive association for surgery involving the appendix, stomach or bowel (OR=1.24; 95% CI 0.98–1.58). When blood transfusion, anesthesia, and total number of surgeries were included in the same model, ORs for time since first transfusion and total number of surgeries remained unchanged, while the association for anesthesia weakened. These results were generally similar for both diffuse and follicular subtypes, with the exception that total number of surgeries showed a suggestive positive association with follicular (OR=1.61 for 7+ surgeries compared to 0; 95% CI 0.74–3.51) but not diffuse NHL. Conclusion: History of blood transfusion was associated with an increased risk of NHL. Total number of surgeries, type of surgery, and use of anesthesia were only weakly associated with risk, although the suggestive positive association for number of surgeries with follicular lymphoma warrants further investigation.