Willett, Walter C.

Background: Several breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models have been developed to provide personal risk assessments. Though individually validated, their performance has not been systematically evaluated across a wide range of populations or ages. Methods: We harmonized individual-level baseline questionnaire data and incident BC diagnoses from 21 cohorts from North America, Europe, and Australia participating in the Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project. Five-year absolute risk of invasive BC was estimated for five established risk prediction models using classical risk factors only. Discrimination was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using average and risk-decile specific expected to observed (E/O) ratios. Performance metrics were meta-analyzed across cohorts and models. Metaregression tested associations between cohort characteristics and performance metrics. Results: This analysis included 1,595,977 women aged 20-75 years, enrolled in studies between 1976-2015, with 19,062 (1.2%) invasive BC cases ascertained within 5 years from exposure assessment. Age-adjusted AUCs were similar across models and cohorts (pooled AUCs by model: 0.57-0.58), while E/O ratios varied substantially (pooled E/O ratios by model: 0.83-1.25). Overestimation was common among predicted high-risk individuals (>3%). No appreciable differences in model performance by cohort age, birth year, race, and variable missingness emerged. Calibration improved after assigning race-specific incidence rates. Conclusion: Existing BC risk prediction models provided similar risk discrimination across multiple cohorts, although there was overestimation of risk for high-risk individuals. Performance variation across cohorts was not driven by specific characteristics, which supports development of a unified risk model for diverse populations that leverages appropriate incidence rates.

PURPOSE There is strong evidence that leisure-time physical activity is protective against postmenopausal breast cancer risk but the association with premenopausal breast cancer is less clear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical activity with the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer. METHODS We pooled individual-level data on self-reported leisure-time physical activity across 19 cohort studies comprising 547,601 premenopausal women, with 10,231 incident cases of breast cancer. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of leisure-time physical activity with breast cancer incidence. HRs for high versus low levels of activity were based on a comparison of risk at the 90th versus 10th percentiles of activity. We assessed the linearity of the relationship and examined subtype-specific associations and effect modification across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including adiposity. RESULTS Over a median 11.5 years of follow-up (IQR, 8.0-16.1 years), high versus low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with a 6% (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]) and a 10% (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95]) reduction in breast cancer risk, before and after adjustment for BMI, respectively. Tests of nonlinearity suggested an approximately linear relationship ( Pnonlinearity = .94). The inverse association was particularly strong for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–enriched breast cancer (HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84]; Phet = .07). Associations did not vary significantly across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including subgroups of adiposity. CONCLUSION This large, pooled analysis of cohort studies adds to evidence that engagement in higher levels of leisure-time physical activity may lead to reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk.

Abstract We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer.

Abstract DNA methylation is instrumental for gene regulation. Global changes in the epigenetic landscape have been recognized as a hallmark of cancer. However, the role of DNA methylation in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) remains unclear. In this study, high-density genetic and DNA methylation data in white blood cells from the Framingham Heart Study (N = 1,595) were used to build genetic models to predict DNA methylation levels. These prediction models were then applied to the summary statistics of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ovarian cancer including 22,406 EOC cases and 40,941 controls to investigate genetically predicted DNA methylation levels in association with EOC risk. Among 62,938 CpG sites investigated, genetically predicted methylation levels at 89 CpG were significantly associated with EOC risk at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P < 7.94 × 10−7. Of them, 87 were located at GWAS-identified EOC susceptibility regions and two resided in a genomic region not previously reported to be associated with EOC risk. Integrative analyses of genetic, methylation, and gene expression data identified consistent directions of associations across 12 CpG, five genes, and EOC risk, suggesting that methylation at these 12 CpG may influence EOC risk by regulating expression of these five genes, namely MAPT, HOXB3, ABHD8, ARHGAP27, and SKAP1. We identified novel DNA methylation markers associated with EOC risk and propose that methylation at multiple CpG may affect EOC risk via regulation of gene expression. Significance: Identification of novel DNA methylation markers associated with EOC risk suggests that methylation at multiple CpG may affect EOC risk through regulation of gene expression.

Abstract Identifying genetic variants with pleiotropic associations can uncover common pathways influencing multiple cancers. We took a two-stage approach to conduct genome-wide association studies for lung, ovary, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer from the GAME-ON/GECCO Network (61,851 cases, 61,820 controls) to identify pleiotropic loci. Findings were replicated in independent association studies (55,789 cases, 330,490 controls). We identified a novel pleiotropic association at 1q22 involving breast and lung squamous cell carcinoma, with eQTL analysis showing an association with ADAM15/THBS3 gene expression in lung. We also identified a known breast cancer locus CASP8/ALS2CR12 associated with prostate cancer, a known cancer locus at CDKN2B-AS1 with different variants associated with lung adenocarcinoma and prostate cancer, and confirmed the associations of a breast BRCA2 locus with lung and serous ovarian cancer. This is the largest study to date examining pleiotropy across multiple cancer-associated loci, identifying common mechanisms of cancer development and progression. Cancer Res; 76(17); 5103–14. ©2016 AACR.

Abstract Intervention trials with supplemental β-carotene have observed either no effect or a harmful effect on lung cancer risk. Because food composition databases for specific carotenoids have only become available recently, epidemiological evidence relating usual dietary levels of these carotenoids with lung cancer risk is limited. We analyzed the association between lung cancer risk and intakes of specific carotenoids using the primary data from seven cohort studies in North America and Europe. Carotenoid intakes were estimated from dietary questionnaires administered at baseline in each study. We calculated study-specific multivariate relative risks (RRs) and combined these using a random-effects model. The multivariate models included smoking history and other potential risk factors. During follow-up of up to 7–16 years across studies, 3,155 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed among 399,765 participants. β-Carotene intake was not associated with lung cancer risk (pooled multivariate RR = 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.87–1.11; highest versus lowest quintile). The RRs for α-carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin, and lycopene were also close to unity. β-Cryptoxanthin intake was inversely associated with lung cancer risk (RR = 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.67–0.86; highest versus lowest quintile). These results did not change after adjustment for intakes of vitamin C (with or without supplements), folate (with or without supplements), and other carotenoids and multivitamin use. The associations generally were similar among never, past, or current smokers and by histological type. Although smoking is the strongest risk factor for lung cancer, greater intake of foods high in β-cryptoxanthin, such as citrus fruit, may modestly lower the risk.

AbstractBecause fruits and vegetables are rich in bioactive compounds with potential cancer-preventive actions, increased consumption may reduce the risk of ovarian cancer. Evidence on the association between fruit and vegetable intake and ovarian cancer risk has not been consistent. We analyzed and pooled the primary data from 12 prospective studies in North America and Europe. Fruit and vegetable intake was measured at baseline in each study using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. To summarize the association between fruit and vegetable intake and ovarian cancer, study-specific relative risks (RR) were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model, and then combined using a random-effects model. Among 560,441 women, 2,130 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer occurred during a maximum follow-up of 7 to 22 years across studies. Total fruit intake was not associated with ovarian cancer risk—the pooled multivariate RR for the highest versus the lowest quartile of intake was 1.06 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.92-1.21; P value, test for trend = 0.73; P value, test for between-studies heterogeneity = 0.74]. Similarly, results for total vegetable intake indicated no significant association (pooled multivariate RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.78-1.04, for the highest versus the lowest quartile; P value, test for trend = 0.06; P value, test for between-studies heterogeneity = 0.31). Intakes of botanically defined fruit and vegetable groups and individual fruits and vegetables were also not associated with ovarian cancer risk. Associations for total fruits and vegetables were similar for different histologic types. These results suggest that fruit and vegetable consumption in adulthood has no important association with the risk of ovarian cancer.