Gao, Chi

Aim: Patients with R/R LBCL after first-line treatment have poor prognosis. Multiple novel therapies have been approved for R/R LBCL in recent years, but CIT regimens are still commonly used. This study evaluated the effectiveness of CIT and novel therapies in 2L+ in patients with R/R LBCL and the association between patient clinical characteristics and real-world outcomes. Methods: This was a multi-site retrospective observational study of patients aged ≥18 years with R/R LBCL in the Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) Consortium of Real-World Evidence (CReWE) cohort (patients followed from 1/1/2015 to 2/15/2023) who were treated with CIT or novel therapy in 2L+. CIT regimens included salvage/palliative chemotherapy, lenalidomide, rituximab, or obinutuzumab, used alone or in combination. Novel therapies included polatuzumab vedotin plus bendamustine and rituximab or variations thereof (i.e., pola-based regimen), tafasitamab plus lenalidomide or variations thereof (tafa-based regimen), and loncastuximab tesirine (lonca). Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics were assessed from the first confirmed R/R disease diagnosis and initiation of 2L+ therapy. When multiple lines of therapy (LOTs) were eligible for inclusion in the analysis, one was randomly selected as the index LOT. Real-world outcomes, determined by investigators at each clinical site, including overall response rate (ORR), complete response (CR) rate, duration of response (DOR), duration of complete response (DOCR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were described for all patients in each treatment group and for the subgroup of patients with prior chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy. Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to assess associations between select patient clinical characteristics and real-world outcomes. Results: The study population included patients treated with CIT (N=653), pola-based regimen (N=116), tafa-based regimen (N=55), and lonca (N=42) ( Figure 1A). The median (m) age at date of index treatment initiation across groups ranged from 63 to 74 years. Across groups, most patients had primary refractory disease-i.e., were refractory to the first LOT (69.5% CIT vs. 73.3% pola vs. 58.2% tafa vs. 71.4% lonca), whereas variable proportions had one prior LOT (65.5% vs. 17.2% vs. 43.6% vs. 7.1%) and prior CAR T-cell therapy (5.1% vs. 43.1% vs. 32.7% vs. 47.6%). In the CIT group, ORR was 33.8%, 15.5% of patients achieved CR, mPFS (95% CI) was 1.9 (1.7, 2.1) months, and mOS was 9.1 (8.1, 10.5) months. In the pola group, ORR was 42.2%, 24.1% of patients achieved CR, mPFS was 2.5 (2, 3.2) months and mOS was 7.8 (6.4, 11.8) months. In the tafa group, ORR was 25.5%, 14.5% of patients achieved CR, mPFS was 2.7 (2.1, 4.2) months, and mOS was 8 (5.3, 12.7) months. In the lonca group, ORR was 40.5%, 21.4% of patients achieved CR, mPFS was 3 (2.1, 5.1) months, and mOS was 4.7 (3.7, 10.8) months. Demographics and outcomes for all patients and those who received prior CAR T-cell therapy are summarized in Figure 1A. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, International Prognostic Index (IPI) risk score ≥3, CIT as the index treatment type, and primary refractory status were significantly associated with time from response to progression/death (P<0.05; Figure 1B). IPI risk score ≥3, CIT as the index treatment type, and primary refractory status were significantly associated with worse PFS. IPI risk ≥3, ≥3 prior LOTs, and primary refractory status were significantly associated with OS. Conclusion: In this large clinical cohort of patients with R/R LBCL with high proportions having primary refractory disease, all common treatments were associated with modest ORR/CR and poor OS. Receiving CIT treatments, higher IPI score, primary refractory status, and higher number of prior LOTs were significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes. A study with larger sample size and longer follow-up may be warranted to further understand the clinical effectiveness of novel treatments. Thus, despite the availability of novel treatments during the study period, these findings highlight the need for more effective treatment alternatives beyond currently available options to improve outcomes.

Abstract Introduction: Incorporation of mammographic density to breast cancer risk models could improve risk stratification to tailor screening and prevention strategies according to risk. However, robust validation of such models in prospective cohort studies is needed to determine their accuracy in identifying women at different risk levels. Methods: We incorporated Breast Imaging and Reporting Data System (BI-RADS) breast density to a literature-based model with questionnaire-based risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS). The Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimator (iCARE) tool was used to build and validate a 5-year absolute risk model for breast cancer. The model was evaluated for calibration and discrimination in three prospective cohorts of women of European ancestry (1,468 cases, 19,104 controls): US-based Nurses’ Health Study (NHS I and II) and Mayo Mammography Health Study (MMHS); and Sweden-based Karolinska Mammography Project for Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer (KARMA) study. Analyses were done separately for women younger (NHS II, KARMA) and older than 50 years (NHS I, MMHS, KARMA). Improvements in risk stratification were assessed among US non-Hispanic White women aged 50-70 years. Results: For women younger than 50 years, the model with questionnaire-based risk factors, PRS and BI-RADS was well calibrated across risk deciles in NHS II, but overestimated risk at the highest risk decile in KARMA. For women 50 years or older, the model showed good calibration in all studies, with evidence of slight overestimation at the highest risk decile and underestimation at the lowest risk decile. The model with PRS and BI-RADS was well calibrated for women at high-risk in both age groups. Incorporation of BI-RADS to questionnaire-based risk factors and PRS improved risk discrimination: area under the curves (AUC) 67.0% (95% CI: 63.5-70.6%) vs. 65.6% (95% CI: 61.9-69.3%) for models with and without BI-RADS for younger women and 66.1% (95% CI 64.4-67.8%) vs. 65.5% (95% CI: 63.8-67.2%) for older women. The model with BI-RADS identified 18.4% population of non-Hispanic US women 50-70 years old above 3% 5-year risk (used for recommending risk-reducing medication in the US), with 42.4% of future cases expected to occur in this group. Addition of BI-RADS led to the reclassification of ~8.0% of US non-Hispanic White women aged 50-70 years at the high-risk threshold (3% 5-year risk), resulting in identification of 4.2% of additional future cases. Conclusion: Integrating BI-RADS with questionnaire-based risk factors and PRS resulted in improved risk stratification among women of European ancestry, with evidence of slight overestimation of risk for women at elevated risk. Additional validation of the integrated model in diverse populations is needed prior to considering clinical applications. Citation Format: Charlotta V. Mulder, Yon Ho Jee, Xin Yang, Christopher G. Scott, Chi Gao, Amber N. Hurson, Mikael Eriksson, Per Hall, Peter Kraft, Celine M. Vachon, Antonis C. Antoniou, Gretchen Gierach, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Parichoy Pal Choudhury. Validation of an integrated breast cancer risk model with mammographic density in three prospective cohort studies [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 2256.

PURPOSETo determine the contribution of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in hereditary cancer testing panel genes to invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) of the breast.MATERIALS AND METHODSThe study included 2,999 women with ILC from a population-based cohort and 3,796 women with ILC undergoing clinical multigene panel testing (clinical cohort). Frequencies of germline PVs in breast cancer predisposition genes ( ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, BRIP1, CDH1, CHEK2, PALB2, PTEN, RAD51C, RAD51D, and TP53) were compared between women with ILC and unaffected female controls and between women with ILC and infiltrating ductal carcinoma (IDC).RESULTSThe frequency of PVs in breast cancer predisposition genes among women with ILC was 6.5% in the clinical cohort and 5.2% in the population-based cohort. In case-control analysis, CDH1 and BRCA2 PVs were associated with high risks of ILC (odds ratio [OR] > 4) and CHEK2, ATM, and PALB2 PVs were associated with moderate (OR = 2-4) risks. BRCA1 PVs and CHEK2 p.Ile157Thr were not associated with clinically relevant risks (OR < 2) of ILC. Compared with IDC, CDH1 PVs were > 10-fold enriched, whereas PVs in BRCA1 were substantially reduced in ILC.CONCLUSIONThe study establishes that PVs in ATM, BRCA2, CDH1, CHEK2, and PALB2 are associated with an increased risk of ILC, whereas BRCA1 PVs are not. The similar overall PV frequencies for ILC and IDC suggest that cancer histology should not influence the decision to proceed with genetic testing. Similar to IDC, multigene panel testing may be appropriate for women with ILC, but CDH1 should be specifically discussed because of low prevalence and gastric cancer risk.

PURPOSE The prevalence of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in established breast cancer predisposition genes in women in the general population over age 65 years is not well-defined. However, testing guidelines suggest that women diagnosed with breast cancer over age 65 years might have < 2.5% likelihood of a PV in a high-penetrance gene. This study aimed to establish the frequency of PVs and remaining risks of breast cancer for each gene in women over age 65 years. METHODS A total of 26,707 women over age 65 years from population-based studies (51.5% with breast cancer and 48.5% unaffected) were tested for PVs in germline predisposition gene. Frequencies of PVs and associations between PVs in each gene and breast cancer were assessed, and remaining lifetime breast cancer risks were estimated for non-Hispanic White women with PVs. RESULTS The frequency of PVs in predisposition genes was 3.18% for women with breast cancer and 1.48% for unaffected women over age 65 years. PVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 were found in 3.42% of women diagnosed with estrogen receptor (ER)–negative, 1.0% with ER-positive, and 3.01% with triple-negative breast cancer. Frequencies of PVs were lower among women with no first-degree relatives with breast cancer. PVs in CHEK2, PALB2, BRCA2, and BRCA1 were associated with increased risks (odds ratio = 2.9-4.0) of breast cancer. Remaining lifetime risks of breast cancer were ≥ 15% for those with PVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2. CONCLUSION This study suggests that all women diagnosed with triple-negative breast cancer or ER-negative breast cancer should receive genetic testing and that women over age 65 years with BRCA1 and BRCA2 PVs and perhaps with PALB2 and CHEK2 PVs should be considered for magnetic resonance imaging screening.

PURPOSE This study assessed the joint association of pathogenic variants (PVs) in breast cancer (BC) predisposition genes and polygenic risk scores (PRS) with BC in the general population. METHODS A total of 26,798 non-Hispanic white BC cases and 26,127 controls from predominately population-based studies in the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility consortium were evaluated for PVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, CHEK2, PALB2, BARD1, BRIP1, CDH1, and NF1. PRS based on 105 common variants were created using effect estimates from BC genome-wide association studies; the performance of an overall BC PRS and estrogen receptor–specific PRS were evaluated. The odds of BC based on the PVs and PRS were estimated using penalized logistic regression. The results were combined with age-specific incidence rates to estimate 5-year and lifetime absolute risks of BC across percentiles of PRS by PV status and first-degree family history of BC. RESULTS The estimated lifetime risks of BC among general-population noncarriers, based on 10th and 90th percentiles of PRS, were 9.1%-23.9% and 6.7%-18.2% for women with or without first-degree relatives with BC, respectively. Taking PRS into account, more than 95% of BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 carriers had > 20% lifetime risks of BC, whereas, respectively, 52.5% and 69.7% of ATM and CHEK2 carriers without first-degree relatives with BC, and 78.8% and 89.9% of those with a first-degree relative with BC had > 20% risk. CONCLUSION PRS facilitates personalization of BC risk among carriers of PVs in predisposition genes. Incorporating PRS into BC risk estimation may help identify > 30% of CHEK2 and nearly half of ATM carriers below the 20% lifetime risk threshold, suggesting the addition of PRS may prevent overscreening and enable more personalized risk management approaches.

Abstract Background Rigorous evaluation of the calibration and discrimination of breast-cancer risk-prediction models in prospective cohorts is critical for applications under clinical guidelines. We comprehensively evaluated an integrated model incorporating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict breast-cancer risk. Methods Fifteen prospective cohorts from six countries with 239 340 women (7646 incident breast-cancer cases) of European ancestry aged 19–75 years were included. Calibration of 5-year risk was assessed by comparing expected and observed proportions of cases overall and within risk categories. Risk stratification for women of European ancestry aged 50–70 years in those countries was evaluated by the proportion of women and future cases crossing clinically relevant risk thresholds. Results Among women &lt;50 years old, the median (range) expected-to-observed ratio for the integrated model across 15 cohorts was 0.9 (0.7–1.0) overall and 0.9 (0.7–1.4) at the highest-risk decile; among women ≥50 years old, these were 1.0 (0.7–1.3) and 1.2 (0.7–1.6), respectively. The proportion of women identified above a 3% 5-year risk threshold (used for recommending risk-reducing medications in the USA) ranged from 7.0% in Germany (∼841 000 of 12 million) to 17.7% in the USA (∼5.3 of 30 million). At this threshold, 14.7% of US women were reclassified by adding the PRS to classical risk factors, with identification of 12.2% of additional future cases. Conclusion Integrating a 313-variant PRS with classical risk factors can improve the identification of European-ancestry women at elevated risk who could benefit from targeted risk-reducing strategies under current clinical guidelines.

Abstract Background: Clinical use of breast cancer risk prediction requires simplified models. We evaluate a simplified version of the validated Rosner–Colditz model and add percent mammographic density (MD) and polygenic risk score (PRS), to assess performance from ages 45–74. We validate using the Mayo Mammography Health Study (MMHS). Methods: We derived the model in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) based on: MD, 77 SNP PRS and a questionnaire score (QS; lifestyle and reproductive factors). A total of 2,799 invasive breast cancer cases were diagnosed from 1990–2000. MD (using Cumulus software) and PRS were assessed in a nested case–control study. We assess model performance using this case–control dataset and evaluate 10-year absolute breast cancer risk. The prospective MMHS validation dataset includes 21.8% of women age &lt;50, and 434 incident cases identified over 10 years of follow-up. Results: In the NHS, MD has the highest odds ratio (OR) for 10-year risk prediction: ORper SD = 1.48 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31–1.68], followed by PRS, ORper SD = 1.37 (95% CI: 1.21–1.55) and QS, ORper SD = 1.25 (95% CI: 1.11–1.41). In MMHS, the AUC adjusted for age + MD + QS 0.650; for age + MD + QS + PRS 0.687, and the NRI was 6% in cases and 16% in controls. Conclusion: A simplified assessment of QS, MD, and PRS performs consistently to discriminate those at high 10-year breast cancer risk. Impact: This simplified model provides accurate estimation of 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer that can be used in a clinical setting to identify women who may benefit from chemopreventive intervention. See related commentary by Tehranifar et al., p. 587

Abstract We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer.

Abstract Background: Pathogenic variants detected in multi-gene cancer predisposition panels are increasingly used to counsel women regarding their risk for breast cancer. However, the clinical implications of moderate penetrance genes (e.g. CHEK2, ATM) remain unclear. Breast MRI is indicated for women with a lifetime risk of breast cancer of &gt;20%, and polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on common variants discovered in recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may identify women with pathogenic variants in CHEK2 and ATM who are above or below this level of risk. PRS may also stratify carriers with substantially elevated lifetime risks of breast cancer. Previous work found that PRS modified breast cancer risk in carriers of pathogenic variant in BRCA1 or BRCA2, but the joint effects of pathogenic variants and PRS have not been studied in samples drawn from the general population. There is also no published study evaluating the effect of PRS among women with pathogenic variants in genes other than BRCA1/2 and CHEK2. Here, we evaluated the joint effects of PRS and pathogenic variants in ten established breast cancer predisposition genes in a population-based case-control sample. Method: We analyzed 43,144 non-Hispanic European-ancestry individuals (20,988 controls and 22,120 cases) drawn from 7 cohorts and 2 population-based case-control studies in the CAnceR RIsk Estimates Related to Susceptibility” (CARRIERS) consortium. Targeted sequencing was performed using a dual bar-coded QIAseq panel of breast cancer predisposition genes. Variant calling was conducted with Haplotype Caller and Vardict. The PRS was calculated based on 106 common variants using effect estimates from the largest published breast cancer GWAS. Genetic status was evaluated for 10 breast cancer predisposition genes: ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, BRIP1, CDH1, CHEK2, NF1, PALB2 and TP53. Lasso Penalized regression was performed to assess the combined effect on overall breast cancer of pathogenic variants and common variants (including main and interaction effects between age, family history, carrier status and PRS). The fraction of women at &gt;2-fold increased risk (which is associated with approximately 20% lifetime risk of breast cancer) was calculated for pathogenic variant carriers and non-carriers of different family history and age groups (&lt;40, 40-50, 50-60, 60-70, &gt;70yrs old). Results: Among non-carriers, one standard deviation change in the PRS was associated with a 1.63x change in odds of breast cancer. The best-fitting risk model did not include any PRS-by-carrier interaction terms, implying the relative risk gradient associated with PRS among women with pathogenic variants is similar to that among non-carriers. For carriers of pathogenic variants in moderate penetrance genes with no family history of breast cancer, the PRS can identify 60.6% of ATM pathogenic variant carriers and 30% of CHEK2 pathogenic variant carriers that have less than 2-fold risk of breast cancer; when carriers have a family history of breast cancer, the PRS can identify 30% of ATM pathogenic variant carriers and 11.8% of CHEK2 pathogenic variant carriers with less than 2-fold risk of breast cancer. Conclusion: In our large, population-based case-control study, the effect of the PRS among pathogenic variant carriers was not significantly different than among non-carriers. However, the PRS may be particularly important for estimating breast cancer risk among carriers of pathogenic variants in moderate penetrance genes such as CHEK2 and ATM, enabling a more precise approach for MRI screening strategy and breast cancer risk management. Citation Format: Chi Gao, Eric C. Polley, Chunling Hu, Steven N. Hart, Rohan Gnanaolivu, Kun Y. Lee, Jie Na, Nicholas J. Boddicker, Raed Samara, Paul Auer, Leslie Bernstein, Mia Gaudet, Amy Trentham-Dietz, Song Yao, Christopher Haiman, Janet E. Olson, Susan Neuhausen, Jeffrey N. Weitzel, David E. Goldgar, Susan Domchek, Katherine L. Nathanson, Fergus J. Couch, Peter Kraft, on behalf of the CARRIERS consortium. Polygenic risk scores provide clinically meaningful risk stratification among women carrying moderate penetrance pathogenic variants in breast cancer predisposition genes: Results from the CARRIERS study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD3-02.