Nathanson, Katherine L

Importance Inherited pathogenic variants (PVs) in known predisposition genes can greatly increase breast cancer risk, but the combined impact of PV status, family history, and other factors on breast cancer risk in the general US population has not been well described. Objective To evaluate population-based breast cancer risk estimates for those with established PVs overall and stratified by first-degree family history of breast cancer and other factors. Design, Setting, and Participants This study used pooled data from 13 US-based breast cancer case-control studies participating in the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) consortium. Enrollment for individual studies occurred between 1976 and 2013, and results are based on data released March 2023, with analyses conducted from June 2022 to July 2025. Exposures PVs, breast cancer family history, self-reported race and ethnicity, and established risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Breast cancer rate ratios for PVs in 7 genes were estimated from the CARRIERS consortium. PV status and incidence and mortality statistics were combined using the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimation (iCARE) model to estimate conditional cumulative breast cancer risks and 95% CIs, stratified by family history and standardized to the US population. Models that incorporated population-based data and published estimates for established epidemiologic risk factors were also evaluated. Results A total of 67 692 women were studied, including 33 841 who were diagnosed with breast cancer. PVs in ATM , BRCA1 , BRCA2 , CHEK2 , and PALB2 were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with BRCA1 and PALB2 PVs showing evidence of heterogeneity by family history. In models considering PVs, family history, and established risk factors, the estimated cumulative risks of breast cancer by age 50 years ranged from 2.4% (95% CI, 2.4-2.4) in women with no PVs and no family history to 35.5% (95% CI, 21.6-55.1) in PALB2 PV carriers with a family history. Among women who have not been diagnosed with breast cancer by age 50 years, the cumulative risk of breast cancer by age 80 years ranged from 11.1% (95% CI, 11.0-11.2) in noncarriers with no family history to 70.5% (95% CI, 52.8-83.5) for PALB2 carriers with a family history. PV-specific cumulative risk estimates varied across subgroups defined by race and ethnicity and potentially modifiable epidemiologic risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, population-based estimates of cumulative breast cancer risk for established PVs, as informed by the CARRIERS case-control sample, varied by family history and potentially modifiable risk factors. These estimates provide guidance for identifying individuals who will most benefit from enhanced screening and prevention strategies.

Abstract Purpose: To determine the relationship between germline pathogenic variants (PV) in cancer predisposition genes and the risk of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Experimental Design: Germline PV frequencies in breast cancer predisposition genes (ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, CDH1, CHEK2, PALB2, RAD51C, and RAD51D) were compared between DCIS cases and unaffected controls and between DCIS and invasive ductal breast cancer (IDC) cases from a clinical testing cohort (n = 9,887), a population-based cohort (n = 3,876), and the UK Biobank (n = 2,421). The risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) for DCIS cases with PV was estimated in the population-based cohort. Results: Germline PV were observed in 6.5% and 4.6% of women with DCIS in the clinical testing and population-based cohorts, respectively. BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 PV frequencies were significantly lower among women with DCIS than those with IDC (clinical cohort: 2.8% vs. 5.7%; population-based cohort: 1.7% vs. 3.7%), whereas the PV frequencies for ATM and CHEK2 were similar. ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2 PV were significantly associated with an increased risk of DCIS (OR > 2.0), but only BRCA2 PV were associated with high risk (OR > 4) in both cohorts. The cumulative incidence of CBC among carriers of PV in high-penetrance genes with DCIS was 23% over 15 years. Conclusions: The enrichment of PV in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2 among women with DCIS suggests that multigene panel testing may be appropriate for women with DCIS. Elevated risks of CBC in carriers of PV in high-penetrance genes with DCIS confirmed the utility of testing for surgical decision-making.

Abstract Background: Breast cancer has been associated with monogenic, polygenic, and epidemiologic (clinical, reproductive, and lifestyle) risk factors, but studies evaluating the combined effects of these factors have been limited. Methods: We extended previous work in breast cancer risk modeling, incorporating pathogenic variants (PV) in six breast cancer predisposition genes and a 105-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS), to include an epidemiologic risk score (ERS) in a sample of non-Hispanic White women drawn from prospective cohorts and population-based case–control studies, with 23,518 cases and 22,832 controls, from the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) Consortium. Results: The model predicts 4.4-fold higher risk of breast cancer for postmenopausal women with no predisposition PV and median PRS, but with the highest versus lowest ERS. Overall, women with CHEK2 PVs had >20% lifetime risk of breast cancer. However, 15.6% of women with CHEK2 PVs and a family history of breast cancer, and 45.1% of women with CHEK2 PVs but without a family history of breast cancer, had low (<20%) predicted lifetime risk and thus were below the threshold for MRI screening. CHEK2 PV carriers at the 10th percentile of the joint distribution of ERS and PRS, without a family history of breast cancer, had a predicted lifetime risk similar to the general population. Conclusions: These results illustrate that an ERS, alone and combined with the PRS, can contribute to clinically relevant risk stratification. Impact: Integrating monogenic, polygenic, and epidemiologic risk factors in breast cancer risk prediction models may inform personalized screening and prevention efforts.

PURPOSE To develop an electronic health record (EHR)–based clinical decision support (CDS) tool to promote guideline-recommended cancer risk management among patients with Lynch syndrome (LS), an inherited cancer syndrome that confers an increased risk of colorectal and other cancer types. MATERIALS AND METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the baseline prevalence and predictors of guideline-recommended colonic surveillance and annual genetics program visits among patients with LS. Multivariable log-binomial regressions estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) of cancer risk management adherence by baseline sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. These analyses provided rationale for the development of an EHR-based CDS tool to support patients and clinicians with LS-related endoscopic surveillance and annual genetics program visits. The CDS leverages an EHR platform linking discrete genetic data to LS Genomic Indicators, in turn driving downstream clinician- and patient-facing CDS. RESULTS Among 323 patients with LS, cross-sectional adherence to colonic surveillance and annual genetics program visits was 69.3% and 55.4%, respectively. Patients with recent electronic patient portal use were more likely to be adherent to colonic surveillance (PR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.52). Patients more recently diagnosed with LS were more likely to be adherent to annual genetics program visits (PR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.76 for 2-4 years; PR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.75 for ≥4 compared with <2 years). Our EHR-based CDS tool is now active for 421 patients with LS throughout our health system. CONCLUSION We have successfully developed an EHR-based CDS tool to promote guideline-recommended cancer risk management among patients with LS.

Abstract Purpose: Germline pathogenic variants in CHEK2 confer moderately elevated breast cancer risk (odds ratio, OR ∼ 2.5), qualifying carriers for enhanced breast cancer screening. Besides pathogenic variants, dozens of missense CHEK2 variants of uncertain significance (VUS) have been identified, hampering the clinical utility of germline genetic testing (GGT). Experimental Design: We collected 460 CHEK2 missense VUS identified by the ENIGMA consortium in 15 countries. Their functional characterization was performed using CHEK2-complementation assays quantifying KAP1 phosphorylation and CHK2 autophosphorylation in human RPE1–CHEK2-knockout cells. Concordant results in both functional assays were used to categorize CHEK2 VUS from 12 ENIGMA case–control datasets, including 73,048 female patients with breast cancer and 88,658 ethnicity-matched controls. Results: A total of 430/460 VUS were successfully analyzed, of which 340 (79.1%) were concordant in both functional assays and categorized as functionally impaired (N = 102), functionally intermediate (N = 12), or functionally wild-type (WT)–like (N = 226). We then examined their association with breast cancer risk in the case–control analysis. The OR and 95% CI (confidence intervals) for carriers of functionally impaired, intermediate, and WT-like variants were 2.83 (95% CI, 2.35–3.41), 1.57 (95% CI, 1.41–1.75), and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.08–1.31), respectively. The meta-analysis of population-specific datasets showed similar results. Conclusions: We determined the functional consequences for the majority of CHEK2 missense VUS found in patients with breast cancer (3,660/4,436; 82.5%). Carriers of functionally impaired missense variants accounted for 0.5% of patients with breast cancer and were associated with a moderate risk similar to that of truncating CHEK2 variants. In contrast, 2.2% of all patients with breast cancer carried functionally wild-type/intermediate missense variants with no clinically relevant breast cancer risk in heterozygous carriers.

10501 Background: Greater than 90% of missense variants in BRCA2 are classified as variants of uncertain significance (VUS). In addition, among the few known missense pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA2, breast cancer risk has been reported to be lower compared to pathogenic truncating variants (PTVs) (Li et al., 2022) . Herein, we aim to reclassify several missense variants in BRCA2 and investigate the associated breast cancer risk. Methods: A total of 450 BRCA2 missense variants in the C-terminal DNA binding domain (DBD) were evaluated for functional effect utilizing a previously validated homology-directed DNA double-strand repair (HDR) assay. The results of the functional evaluation along with clinical, structural, and in-silico data were applied to the rules-based ACMG/AMP criteria for variant classification to identify pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants and benign/likely benign (B/LB) variants. A pooled case-control analysis was performed comparing the frequency of reclassified P/LP missense variants among 82,372 women with breast cancer within the Ambry Genetics database as cases and 174,167 unaffected women within gnomAD, CARRIERS, and BRIDGES datasets as controls to evaluate associated breast cancer risk. Separate case-control analysis and comparisons with BRCA2 DBD PTVs, exon 11 PTVs, and known missense PV standards in ENIGMA were also performed. Results: From the 450 missense variants in the DBD, 137 (30.4%) were noted to be functionally deleterious and 313 (69.6%) were functionally neutral by the HDR assay. Incorporation of the functional and other data into an ACMG/AMP model led to the reclassification of 439 (97.6%) variants, with 131 as P/LP and 308 as B/LB variants. In a pooled case-control analysis, reclassified BRCA2 missense P/LP variants were associated with clinically significant increased risks of breast cancer (Odds Ratio (OR):5.6, 95%CI:3.9–8.0), whereas B/LB missense variants were not (OR:1.1, 95%CI:1.1–1.2). Similarly elevated risks of breast cancer were observed for BRCA2 PTVs in the DBD (OR:6.8, 95%CI:5.1–9.0) and missense PV standards in ENIGMA (OR:7.8, 95%CI:4.1–14.7). However, PTVs in exon 11 of BRCA2 were associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR:4.4, 95%CI:3.8–4.9) compared to PTVs in DBD, confirming the ovarian cancer cluster region effect in BRCA2. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that the HDR functional assay in conjunction with other clinical and genomic data can be a powerful tool that can aid in the reclassification of > 95% of missense variants in BRCA2. In addition, missense PVs in DBD were noted to have a similarly elevated risk of breast cancer as PTVs. The reclassification of the BRCA2 missense VUS and identification of associated breast cancer risk in this study will significantly influence breast cancer risk assessment and management strategies among carriers of these missense variants.

Abstract Pathogenic protein-truncating variants of RAD51C, which plays an integral role in promoting DNA damage repair, increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer. A large number of RAD51C missense variants of uncertain significance (VUS) have been identified, but the effects of the majority of these variants on RAD51C function and cancer predisposition have not been established. Here, analysis of 173 missense variants by a homology-directed repair (HDR) assay in reconstituted RAD51C−/− cells identified 30 nonfunctional (deleterious) variants, including 18 in a hotspot within the ATP-binding region. The deleterious variants conferred sensitivity to cisplatin and olaparib and disrupted formation of RAD51C/XRCC3 and RAD51B/RAD51C/RAD51D/XRCC2 complexes. Computational analysis indicated the deleterious variant effects were consistent with structural effects on ATP-binding to RAD51C. A subset of the variants displayed similar effects on RAD51C activity in reconstituted human RAD51C-depleted cancer cells. Case–control association studies of deleterious variants in women with breast and ovarian cancer and noncancer controls showed associations with moderate breast cancer risk [OR, 3.92; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.18–7.59] and high ovarian cancer risk (OR, 14.8; 95% CI, 7.71–30.36), similar to protein-truncating variants. This functional data supports the clinical classification of inactivating RAD51C missense variants as pathogenic or likely pathogenic, which may improve the clinical management of variant carriers. Significance: Functional analysis of the impact of a large number of missense variants on RAD51C function provides insight into RAD51C activity and information for classification of the cancer relevance of RAD51C variants.

Abstract Two recent studies have defined population-based risk of breast cancer (BC) due to pathogenic variants (PVs) in well-established BC susceptibility genes. Prior studies in high-risk BC cohorts identified variable BC risks based on the position and type of mutation in BRCA1 and BRCA2, and based on the type of mutation in ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2. Whether this variability holds true in the general population has not been evaluated. To determine the BC risks associated with mutations of different types and in different locations in BC susceptibility genes in the general population, we carried out case-control analyses of 32247 cases and 32544 controls in the CARRIERS study, including 12 US population-based studies, and case-control analyses, subset to mutation carriers. We used age-adjusted logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR), relative OR (rOR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for PVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2. ORs were estimated using the full population of mutation carriers and noncarriers while rORs were estimated within subsets of individual gene mutation carriers. We identified 273 BRCA1, 421 BRCA2, 253 ATM, 351 CHEK2, and 148 PALB2 in women with BC and 35 BRCA1, 84 BRCA2, 139 ATM, 139 CHEK2, and 38 PALB2 variant carriers in those without BC. For BRCA1, we did not find differences in risk by mutation type or location. However, variants leading to nonsense mediated decay (NMD) predicted to have re-initiation at p.M128 had a non-statistical 3-fold higher risk for BC compared to those leading to NMD without re-initiation (rOR 3.1, 0.99-13.52, p = 0.0826). BRCA2 loss of function (LoF) mutations in exons 1-10 had a higher BC risk compared to LoF mutations in the exon 11 (rOR 2.7, 1.1-7.9, p=0.048) ovarian cancer cluster region (OCCR). We did not detect any differences in risk by mutation type or location in ATM, CHEK2, or PALB2. CHEK2 missense variants p.I157T (rOR 0.5, 0.4-0.7, p &lt;0.001) and p.T476M (rOR 0.5, 0.3 - 0.8, p=0.005) were associated with lower BC risk relative to CHEK2 c.1100delC (OR 2.5, 2.0-3.3, p&lt;0.001). The CHEK2 c.444+1G&gt;A splicing variant was associated with highest BC risk among common CHEK2 variants (OR 4.2, 1.9-10.5, p&lt;0.001), but was not statistically significantly different from c.1100delC (rOR 1.7, 0.8-4.3, p=0.230). In summary, we identified a higher BC risk for LoF variants in BRCA2, lower risk for CHEK2 missense mutations, and non-statistical higher risk for NMD/re-initiation BRCA1 variants and CHEK2 c.444+1G&gt;A in this population-based study. Despite the large numbers included in the overall CARRIERS study, the number of PV carriers was relatively small, which may have limited the detection of associations. Nonetheless, we were able to detect genotype-risk associations that have implications for counseling women about their BC risk, and certainly for the development of individualized risks. Citation Format: Mwangala P. Akamandisa, Nicholas Boddicker, Chunling Hu, Siddhartha Yadav, Jeffrey N. Weitzel, Peter Kraft, Susan M. Domchek, Fergus J. Couch, Katherine L. Nathanson, for the CARRIERS Consortium . Mutation type and location in breast cancer susceptibility genes are associated with differential risk in the general population [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 1183.

Abstract Purpose To estimate the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) among women in the general population with germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2. Methods Among 15,104 prospectively followed women within the CARRIERS study treated with ipsilateral surgery for invasive breast cancer, a subset of 14,237 women were identified from population-based studies. The risk of CBC was estimated for PV carriers in each gene compared to women without PVs in a multivariate proportional hazard regression analysis accounting for the competing risk of death and adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. The primary analyses focused on the overall cohort and on women from the general population. Secondary analyses examined associations by race/ethnicity, age at primary breast cancer diagnosis, menopausal status, and tumor estrogen receptor status. Results Germline BRCA1, BRCA2, and CHEK2 PV carriers with breast cancer were at significantly elevated risk (Hazard ratio ≥ 1.9, p&lt; 0.05) of CBC, whereas only the PALB2 PV carriers with ER-negative breast cancer had elevated risks. In contrast, ATM PV carriers did not have significantly increased CBC risks. African American PV carriers had similarly elevated risks of CBC as non-Hispanic White PV carriers. Among premenopausal women, the 15-year cumulative incidence of CBC was &gt;20% for BRCA1, BRCA2 and CHEK2 PV carriers with breast cancer, and for PALB2 PV carriers with ER-negative breast cancer. The 15-year cumulative incidence of CBC among postmenopausal PV carriers was &lt; 20% for PV carriers in any of the 5 genes. Conclusions Women diagnosed with breast cancer and known to carry germline PVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, or PALB2 are at substantially increased risk of CBC and may benefit from enhanced surveillance and risk-reduction strategies. Citation Format: Siddhartha Yadav, Nicholas J. Boddicker, Jie Na, Eric C. Polley, Chunling Hu, Steven N. Hart, Rohan D. Gnanaolivu, Nicole Larson, Carolyn Dunn, Susan Holtegaard, Huaizhi Huang, Lauren R. Teras, Alpa V. Patel, James V. Lacey Jr., Susan Neuhausen, Leslie Bernstein, Elena Martinez, Christopher Haiman, Fei Chen, Kathryn Ruddy, Janet Olson, Esther John, Allison W. Kurian, Dale P. Sandler, Katie M. O’Brien, Jack A. Taylor, Clarice R. Weinberg, Hoda Anton-Culver, Argyrios Ziogas, Gary R. Zirpoli, David E. Goldgar, Katherine L. Nathanson, Susan Domchek, Julie R. Palmer, Jeffrey Weitzel, Peter Kraft, Fergus J. Couch. Population-based Estimates of contralateral Breast Cancer Risk among Carriers of Germline Pathogenic Variants in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr GS4-04.

PURPOSE To estimate the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) among women with germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2. METHODS The study population included 15,104 prospectively followed women within the CARRIERS study treated with ipsilateral surgery for invasive breast cancer. The risk of CBC was estimated for PV carriers in each gene compared with women without PVs in a multivariate proportional hazard regression analysis accounting for the competing risk of death and adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. The primary analyses focused on the overall cohort and on women from the general population. Secondary analyses examined associations by race/ethnicity, age at primary breast cancer diagnosis, menopausal status, and tumor estrogen receptor (ER) status. RESULTS Germline BRCA1, BRCA2, and CHEK2 PV carriers with breast cancer were at significantly elevated risk (hazard ratio > 1.9) of CBC, whereas only the PALB2 PV carriers with ER-negative breast cancer had elevated risks (hazard ratio, 2.9). By contrast, ATM PV carriers did not have significantly increased CBC risks. African American PV carriers had similarly elevated risks of CBC as non-Hispanic White PV carriers. Among premenopausal women, the 10-year cumulative incidence of CBC was estimated to be 33% for BRCA1, 27% for BRCA2, and 13% for CHEK2 PV carriers with breast cancer and 35% for PALB2 PV carriers with ER-negative breast cancer. The 10-year cumulative incidence of CBC among postmenopausal PV carriers was 12% for BRCA1, 9% for BRCA2, and 4% for CHEK2. CONCLUSION Women diagnosed with breast cancer and known to carry germline PVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, or PALB2 are at substantially increased risk of CBC and may benefit from enhanced surveillance and risk reduction strategies.