Abubakar, Mustapha

Abstract Background Breast cancer is etiologically heterogeneous, but which risk factors differ in their associations across tumor subtypes remains unclear. We conducted a large, pooled analysis to evaluate independent, dose-response associations between breast cancer risk factors and quantitative tumor features. Methods Analyses of 15,731 invasive breast cancers from 24 studies evaluated associations (p-trend) between reproductive and hormonal factors, body mass index (BMI), alcohol, smoking, and family history in relation to quantitative immunohistochemistry measures on tissue microarrays (ER, PR, HER2, KI67, TP53) and tumor grade. Analyses in a subset of 10 population-based studies estimated subtype-specific odds ratios (ORs) comparing cases to controls. A Bayesian False Discovery Probability (BFDP) <0.2 was used to identify associations with strong statistical evidence. Results Nulliparity and later age at menopause were associated with higher ER-positivity (p-trend=0.021 and 0.001, respectively), with corresponding OR[ER+] (95% CI) = 1.49 (1.16-1.90) for nulliparous vs. parous and 1.07 (1.03-1.11) per 5 years. Current combined menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use was associated with lower grade (p-trend<0.001), with OR [grade1] = 3.37 (2.69-4.21) for current vs. never users. Higher BMI was associated with lower ER-positivity and higher grade in premenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[ER+] = 0.80 (0.74-0.87) and OR[grade1] = 0.75 (0.63-0.88) per 5 units, and with higher PR-positivity and higher grade in postmenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[PR+] = 1.08 (1.03-1.14) and OR[grade 3] = 1.10 (1.04-1.17) per 5 units. Conclusion This pooled analysis of 15,731 cases showed that nulliparity, age at menopause, MHT, and BMI have independent, dose-response associations with ER, PR, and grade, clarifying patterns of etiologic heterogeneity. Associations with HER2, KI67 and TP53, or other risk factors did not meet our threshold for strong evidence.

Background: Breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRS) and traditional risk models (e.g., the Gail model [Gail]) are known to contribute largely independent information, but it is unclear how the overlap varies by ancestry, age, disease type (invasive breast cancer, DCIS), and risk threshold. Methods: In a retrospective case–control study, we evaluated risk prediction performance in 180,398 women (161,849 of European ancestry; 18,549 of Asian ancestry). Odds ratios (ORs) from logistic regression models and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were estimated. Results: PRS for invasive disease showed a stronger association in younger (<50 years) women (OR = 2.51, AUC = 0.622) than in women ≥ 50 years (OR = 2.06, AUC = 0.653) of European ancestry. PRS performance in Asians was lower (OR range = 1.62–1.64, AUC = 0.551–0.600). Gail performance was modest across groups and poor in younger Asian women (OR = 0.94–0.99, AUC = 0.523–0.533). Age interactions were observed for both PRS (p < 0.001) and Gail (p < 0.001) in Europeans, whereas in Asians, age interaction was observed only for Gail (invasive: p < 0.001; DCIS: p = 0.002). PRS identified more high-risk individuals than Gail in Asian populations, especially ≥50 years, while Gail identified more in Europeans. Overlap between PRS, Gail, and family history was limited at higher thresholds. Calibration analysis, comparing empirical and model-based ROC curves, showed divergence for both PRS and Gail (p < 0.001), which indicates miscalibration. In Europeans, family history and prior biopsies drove Gail discrimination. In younger Asians, age at first live birth was influential. Conclusions: PRS adds value to risk stratification beyond traditional tools, especially in younger women and Asian ancestry populations.

ImportanceEtiologic heterogeneity in breast carcinogenesis needs to be well characterized for targeted prevention. Associations between menopausal hormonal therapy (MHT) and oral contraceptive (OC) use and breast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes are not well understood.ObjectiveTo examine whether exogenous hormone use is differentially associated with breast cancer subtypes and to evaluate heterogeneity by intrinsic-like subtypes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis study pooled data from 31 nested and population-based case-control studies involved in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The study population included individuals with breast cancer and control participants from 13 case-control studies nested in prospective cohorts (recruited between 1982 and 2011) and 18 population-based case-control studies (recruited between 1990 and 2013). Data analysis was performed in June 2024.ExposureMHT use (estrogen-progestin therapy [EPT] or estrogen-only therapy [ET]) in postmenopausal women and OC use in premenopausal women (never, past use, or current use).Main Outcomes and MeasuresBreast cancer intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A–like, luminal B–like, luminal B–ERBB2 [formerly HER2 or HER2/neu]-like, ERBB2 enriched–like, or triple-negative) were determined by immunohistochemistry of tumor sections. Polytomous logistic regression was performed to estimate the association between exogenous hormones and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes. Analyses by subtypes were stratified by body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]; healthy weight, 18.5-&amp;lt;25; overweight, 25-&amp;lt;30; or obesity, ≥30).ResultsThis study included 42 269 individuals with breast cancer (11 901 [28.2%] premenopausal and 30 368 [71.8%] postmenopausal; 23 353 [55.2%] had a known intrinsic-like subtype) and 71 072 control participants. The mean (SD) age of all participants was 57.9 (10.9) years. In postmenopausal women, associations between current MHT use (EPT or ET) and breast cancer differed by subtype. Current EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal A–like (odds ratio [OR], 2.51 [95% CI, 2.26-2.80]) or luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.61-2.37]) subtypes. These associations were attenuated but remained for individuals with overweight (OR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.02-1.92]) or obesity (OR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.01-2.78]). EPT use increased the odds of being diagnosed with luminal B–like tumors solely in women with healthy weight (OR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.17-1.86]). Current ET use was positively associated with luminal A–like disease in women with healthy weight only (OR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.32]), showing inverse associations with higher BMI (obesity: OR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.50-0.85]). In premenopausal women, recent OC use was associated with luminal B–ERBB2-like (OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.09-2.08]), ERBB2 enriched–like (OR, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.55-3.51]), and triple-negative (OR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.33-2.29]; P &amp;lt; .04 for heterogeneity) tumors.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, clear differences were observed in associations between current EPT use and luminal-like breast cancer subtypes and other subtypes. EPT users with healthy weight were more likely to be diagnosed with luminal-like breast cancer compared with nonusers. Subtype heterogeneity was less apparent in associations of OC and ET use. Future studies on contemporary formulations, patterns of use, and routes of administration of exogenous hormone usage are warranted.

Abstract Background Mammographic breast density (MBD) decline post-tamoxifen initiation is a favorable prognostic factor in estrogen receptor (ER)–positive breast cancer (BC) and has potential utility as a biomarker of tamoxifen response. However, the prognostic value of MBD decline may vary by molecular characteristics among ER–positive patients. Methods We investigated associations between MBD decline (≥10% vs &lt;10%) and breast cancer–specific mortality (BCSM) among ER–positive breast cancer patients aged 36-87 years at diagnosis treated with tamoxifen at Kaiser Permanente Northwest (1990-2008). Patients who died of BC (case patients; n = 62) were compared with those who did not (control patients; n = 215) overall and by tumor molecular characteristics (immunohistochemistry [IHC]–based subtype [luminal A–like: ER–positive/progesterone receptor [PR]–positive/HER2–negative/low Ki67; luminal B–like: ER–positive and 1 or more of PR–negative, HER2–positive, high Ki67] and modified IHC [mIHC]–based recurrence score of ER/PR/Ki67). Percent MBD was measured in the unaffected breast at baseline mammogram (mean = 6 months before tamoxifen initiation) and follow-up (mean = 12 months post-tamoxifen initiation). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed from logistic regression models. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results MBD decline was statistically significantly associated with reduced risk of BCSM overall (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.92). This association was, however, stronger among women with aggressive tumor characteristics including luminal B–like (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.73) vs A–like (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.19 to 2.92); large (OR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.78) vs small (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.04 to 3.79) tumors; PR–negative (OR = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.001 to 0.37) vs PR–positive (OR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.18 to 1.40) disease; and high (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.93) vs low (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.10 to 2.09) mIHC3 score. Conclusion The findings support MBD decline as a prognostic marker of tamoxifen response among patients with aggressive ER–positive BC phenotypes, for whom understanding treatment effectiveness is critical.

Abstract Background The immunohistochemical (IHC) 4 + clinical treatment score (C) i.e. IHC4+C assay combines IHC assessment of four routinely measured markers in the clinical setting, including estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and KI67, with other clinical parameters for aiding decision-making on adjuvant chemotherapy in hormone positive (HR+) breast cancer. It is low cost, widely available and has been shown to provide similar prognostic information to the 21-gene (Oncotype DX) test. Clinical use of IHC4+C is limited by the need for standardized scoring of the IHC markers. Here, we examine the prognostic value of a digital image analysis (DIA) based IHC4+C assay in two study populations and compare this with pathologists' visual assay in a subset of patients. We also evaluated its potential clinical relevance in relation to the Nottingham prognostic index [NPI; i.e. low (&lt;3.4), intermediate (3.4-5.4) and high (&gt;5.4)] and IHC defined breast cancer subtypes (i.e. luminal A-like and B-like). Methods Using DIA data on ER, PR, HER2 and KI67, in addition to clinicopathological characteristics of tumors, we computed DIA based IHC4+C (i.e. DIAIHC4+C) assay for 2,034 women from study populations in Poland (PBCS) and the United Kingdom (SEARCH). A total of 246 deaths occurred over a median follow-up period of 6.7 years. A relevant threshold was determined using quartile analysis and the relationship between dichotomous categories (&gt;75th vs ≤ 75th percentile) of DIAIHC4+C and 10-year breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) was investigated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and in Cox proportional hazard regression models, overall and stratified by study, NPI and subtype. Results DIAIHC4+C score was associated with worse 10-year BCSS overall [HR (95% CI) &gt;75th vs ≤ 75th percentile = 2.92 (1.77, 4.82); p-value &lt;0.0001] and in both the PBCS [3.48 (1.40, 8.65); p-value = 0.007] and SEARCH [3.87 (2.24, 6.68); p-value &lt;0.0001] study populations. DIAIHC4+C was associated with significantly worse survival outcomes in women with intermediate NPI [1.94 (1.31, 2.88); p-value = 0.001] and luminal A-like subtype of HR+ tumors [5.37 (3.50, 8.26); p-value &lt;0.0001]. DIA and visual IHC4+C results were highly correlated (r = 0.95) and survival associations and model fit parameters were similar for DIA [3.82 (2.08, 7.00); p-value &lt; 0.0001; AIC = 472.3] and visual [4.73 (2.55, 8.76); p-value &lt; 0.0001; AIC = 466.1] IHC4+C scores amongst 444 patients with data from both sources. Conclusion These findings are in support of the prognostic value of DIAIHC4+C assay in HR+ breast cancer and demonstrate its potential clinical relevance as an adjunct to the NPI. Given the advantages of being high-throughput and highly reproducible, DIA based methods could find use in the standardization of the analytical processes for the IHC4+C assay. Citation Format: Mustapha Abubakar, Paul D. Pharoah, Mark E. Sherman, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Mitch Dowsett. Digital image analysis based IHC4+C assay and prognosis in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2971.

Limited epidemiological evidence suggests that the etiology of hormone receptor positive (HR+) breast cancer may differ by levels of histologic grade and proliferation. We pooled risk factor and pathology data on 5,905 HR+ breast cancer cases and 26,281 controls from 11 epidemiological studies. Proliferation was determined by centralized automated measures of KI67 in tissue microarrays. Odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p‐values for case–case and case–control comparisons for risk factors in relation to levels of grade and quartiles (Q1–Q4) of KI67 were estimated using polytomous logistic regression models. Case–case comparisons showed associations between nulliparity and high KI67 [OR (95% CI) for Q4 vs. Q1 = 1.54 (1.22, 1.95)]; obesity and high grade [grade 3 vs. 1 = 1.68 (1.31, 2.16)] and current use of combined hormone therapy (HT) and low grade [grade 3 vs. 1 = 0.27 (0.16, 0.44)] tumors. In case–control comparisons, nulliparity was associated with elevated risk of tumors with high but not low levels of proliferation [1.43 (1.14, 1.81) for KI67 Q4 vs. 0.83 (0.60, 1.14) for KI67 Q1]; obesity among women ≥50 years with high but not low grade tumors [1.55 (1.17, 2.06) for grade 3 vs. 0.88 (0.66, 1.16) for grade 1] and HT with low but not high grade tumors [3.07 (2.22, 4.23) for grade 1 vs. 0.85 (0.55, 1.30) for grade 3]. Menarcheal age and family history were similarly associated with HR+ tumors of different grade or KI67 levels. These findings provide insights into the etiologic heterogeneity of HR+ tumors.

AbstractAutomated methods are needed to facilitate high‐throughput and reproducible scoring of Ki67 and other markers in breast cancer tissue microarrays (TMAs) in large‐scale studies. To address this need, we developed an automated protocol for Ki67 scoring and evaluated its performance in studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We utilized 166 TMAs containing 16,953 tumour cores representing 9,059 breast cancer cases, from 13 studies, with information on other clinical and pathological characteristics. TMAs were stained for Ki67 using standard immunohistochemical procedures, and scanned and digitized using the Ariol system. An automated algorithm was developed for the scoring of Ki67, and scores were compared to computer assisted visual (CAV) scores in a subset of 15 TMAs in a training set. We also assessed the correlation between automated Ki67 scores and other clinical and pathological characteristics. Overall, we observed good discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 85%) and good agreement (kappa = 0.64) between the automated and CAV scoring methods in the training set. The performance of the automated method varied by TMA (kappa range= 0.37–0.87) and study (kappa range = 0.39–0.69). The automated method performed better in satisfactory cores (kappa = 0.68) than suboptimal (kappa = 0.51) cores (p‐value for comparison = 0.005); and among cores with higher total nuclei counted by the machine (4,000–4,500 cells: kappa = 0.78) than those with lower counts (50–500 cells: kappa = 0.41; p‐value = 0.010). Among the 9,059 cases in this study, the correlations between automated Ki67 and clinical and pathological characteristics were found to be in the expected directions. Our findings indicate that automated scoring of Ki67 can be an efficient method to obtain good quality data across large numbers of TMAs from multicentre studies. However, robust algorithm development and rigorous pre‐ and post‐analytical quality control procedures are necessary in order to ensure satisfactory performance.