Miller, Ted R.

Importance Ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death in the US, is predominantly due to modifiable risk factors. Estimates of IHD mortality attributable to risk factors provide evidence for health policy decision-making. Objective To estimate the burden of IHD death attributable to risk factors in the US from 1990-2023. Design, Setting, and Participants The Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023) used vital records and a broad set of epidemiologic data to estimate IHD death rates, risk factor exposure, and relative risk curves for risk-outcome pairs for 1990-2023 for the general population. Data analysis was performed from October 2024 to December 2025. Exposure Twelve metabolic, behavioral, and environmental risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcomes were IHD death rates per 100 000 persons, counts, and attributable risks from 1990-2023 by age, sex, and US state. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). IHD death rates were estimated using ensemble modeling methods. Risk exposures were estimated using bayesian meta-regression methods. Relative risks were estimated following the Burden of Proof framework. Results In 2023, there were 473 000 IHD deaths (95% UI, 414 000-510 000) in the US, a decrease of 58.7% (95% UI, 56.8%-61.0%) in age-standardized rate since 1990. Between 2010 and 2023, there was a 19.0% decrease (95% UI, 15.0%-22.9%) for males and a 24.5% decrease (95% UI, 20.3%-29.7%) for females in IHD death rates. High systolic blood pressure (SBP), dietary risks, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were the leading risk factors for IHD deaths in 2023, accounting for 47.2% (95% UI, 36.4%-57.0%), 38.6% (95% UI, 17.2%-56.8%), and 28.5% (95% UI, 19.3%-39.6%) of IHD deaths, respectively. Increased exposure to several risk factors substantially increased their attributable burden for IHD deaths in 2023, with high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) increasing 38.8% (95% UI, 11.5%-81.1%) and high body mass index (BMI) increasing 54.5% (95% UI, 41.8%-66.3%) since 1990. Smoking and particulate matter pollution had the greatest decrease in attributable IHD mortality since 1990, at 33.3% (95% UI, 23.6%-41.7%) and 74.9% (95% UI, 46.7%-88.8%), respectively. Conclusion and Relevance Per the results of this systematic analysis of GBD 2023, a total of 88.7% (95% UI, 83.4%-92.5%) of IHD deaths were attributable to modifiable risk factors in the US in 2023, with high SBP, dietary risks, and high LDL-C being the greatest contributors. High BMI and high FPG showed the largest attribution increases, while exposure to other risks did not increase significantly for the population.

ImportanceStroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies.ObjectiveTo present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsAn in-depth cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study was conducted. The setting included the time period of 1990 to 2019 in the US. The study encompassed estimates for various types of strokes, including all strokes, ischemic strokes, intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). The 2019 Global Burden of Disease results were released on October 20, 2020.ExposuresIn this study, no particular exposure was specifically targeted.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary focus of this analysis centered on both overall and age-standardized estimates, stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs per 100 000 individuals.ResultsIn 2019, the US recorded 7.09 million prevalent strokes (4.07 million women [57.4%]; 3.02 million men [42.6%]), with 5.87 million being ischemic strokes (82.7%). Prevalence also included 0.66 million ICHs and 0.85 million SAHs. Although the absolute numbers of stroke cases, mortality, and DALYs surged from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates either declined or remained steady. Notably, hemorrhagic strokes manifested a substantial increase, especially in mortality, compared with ischemic strokes (incidence of ischemic stroke increased by 13% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 14.2%-11.9%]; incidence of ICH increased by 39.8% [95% UI, 38.9%-39.7%]; incidence of SAH increased by 50.9% [95% UI, 49.2%-52.6%]). The downturn in stroke mortality plateaued in the recent decade. There was a discernible heterogeneity in stroke burden trends, with older adults (50-74 years) experiencing a decrease in incidence in coastal areas (decreases up to 3.9% in Vermont), in contrast to an uptick observed in younger demographics (15-49 years) in the South and Midwest US (with increases up to 8.4% in Minnesota).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this cross-sectional study, the declining age-standardized stroke rates over the past 3 decades suggest progress in managing stroke-related outcomes. However, the increasing absolute burden of stroke, coupled with a notable rise in hemorrhagic stroke, suggests an evolving and substantial public health challenge in the US. Moreover, the significant disparities in stroke burden trends across different age groups and geographic locations underscore the necessity for region- and demography-specific interventions and policies to effectively mitigate the multifaceted and escalating burden of stroke in the country.

Objectives: This article describes key data sources and methods used to estimate hearing loss in the United States, in the Global Burden of Disease study. Then, trends in hearing loss are described for 2019, including temporal trends from 1990 to 2019, changing prevalence over age, severity patterns, and utilization of hearing aids. Design: We utilized population-representative surveys from the United States to estimate hearing loss prevalence for the Global Burden of Disease study. A key input data source in modeled estimates are the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), years 1988 to 2010. We ran hierarchical severity-specific models to estimate hearing loss prevalence. We then scaled severity-specific models to sum to total hearing impairment prevalence, adjusted estimates for hearing aid coverage, and split estimates by etiology and tinnitus status. We computed years lived with disability (YLDs), which quantifies the amount of health loss associated with a condition depending on severity and creates a common metric to compare the burden of disparate diseases. This was done by multiplying the prevalence of severity-specific hearing loss by corresponding disability weights, with additional weighting for tinnitus comorbidity. Results: An estimated 72.88 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 68.53 to 77.30) people in the United States had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for 22.2% (20.9 to 23.6) of the total population. Hearing loss was responsible for 2.24 million (1.56 to 3.11) YLDs (3.6% (2.8 to 4.7) of total US YLDs). Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (17.7% [16.7 to 18.8]) compared with females (11.9%, [11.2 to 12.5]). While most cases of hearing loss were mild (64.3%, 95% UI 61.0 to 67.6), disability was concentrated in cases that were moderate or more severe. The all-age prevalence of hearing loss in the United States was 28.1% (25.7 to 30.8) higher in 2019 than in 1990, despite stable age-standardized prevalence. An estimated 9.7% (8.6 to 11.0) of individuals with mild to profound hearing loss utilized a hearing aid, while 32.5% (31.9 to 33.2) of individuals with hearing loss experienced tinnitus. Occupational noise exposure was responsible for 11.2% (10.2 to 12.4) of hearing loss YLDs. Conclusions: Results indicate large burden of hearing loss in the United States, with an estimated 1 in 5 people experiencing this condition. While many cases of hearing loss in the United States were mild, growing prevalence, low usage of hearing aids, and aging populations indicate the rising impact of this condition in future years and the increasing importance of domestic access to hearing healthcare services. Large-scale audiometric surveys such as NHANES are needed to regularly assess hearing loss burden and access to healthcare, improving our understanding of who is impacted by hearing loss and what groups are most amenable to intervention.

Abstract Venomous snakebite is an important cause of preventable death. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to halve snakebite mortality by 2030. We used verbal autopsy and vital registration data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal contact mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In 2019, 63,400 people (95% uncertainty interval 38,900–78,600) died globally from snakebites, which was equal to an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 0.8 deaths (0.5–1.0) per 100,000 and represents a 36% (2–49) decrease in ASMR since 1990. India had the greatest number of deaths in 2019, equal to an ASMR of 4.0 per 100,000 (2.3-5.0). We forecast mortality will continue to decline, but not sufficiently to meet the WHO’s goals. Improved data collection should be prioritized to help target interventions, improve burden estimation, and monitor progress.

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Background Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. Results Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). Conclusions The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.