Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad

Abstract Importance Decline in olfactory function may be used as a predictor of cognitive decline, to enhance early detection models, improve risk stratification, and enable early intervention. Objective To assess the longitudinal association between olfactory decline, cognitive decline, and postmortem neuropathology. Design, setting and participants Retrospective longitudinal analysis with clinicopathological correlations of a prospective population-based cohort study using data from the Arizona Study of Aging and Neurodegenerative Disorders (AZSAND) and its Brain and Body Donation Program. Participants included cognitively unimpaired individuals without parkinsonism that converted to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and/or dementia or remained cognitively stable. Main Outcomes and Measures longitudinal change in olfaction, neuropsychiatric symptoms, motor function and memory, conversion to MCI/dementia, postmortem neuropathology Results Over a mean follow-up period of 7.7 ± 5.4 years, out of 922 participants who were cognitively unimpaired at the first cognitive conference, 643 remained cognitively unimpaired, 279 converted to MCI, and 82 developed dementia. Of these, 633 individuals had at least 2 olfactory tests. Converters showed reduced olfactory function (t=-12.6, p <0.0001), faster progression in neuropsychiatric symptom burden (t=3.42, p < 0.001), and faster decline in memory (t= -7.33, p <0.0001) prior to conversion while no significant differences were observed in motor scores between converters and non-converters. Using ROC analysis, olfactory decline, increased neuropsychiatric symptom burden, as well as motor and memory decline predicted conversion to MCI with a consistent accuracy of ∼ 70% up to 5 years before conversion, while UPSIT alone had an accuracy of ∼ 60%. Longitudinal decline in olfaction was associated with a higher burden of a-synuclein (t= -8.21, p <0.0005), tau tangle (t= -2.66, p < 0.01) and amyloid plaque burden (t= -2.85, p < 0.005) and a faster decline over time was associated with a higher burden of tau (t=5.66, p<0.0001). Conclusions and Relevance A reduction in olfactory identification ability is observed up to a decade prior to conversion to MCI and is associated with underlying burden of neuropathology markers, underscoring the value of incorporating olfactory testing in cognitively unimpaired individuals to identify those at-risk of future cognitive decline.

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.