Farzadfar, Farshad

BACKGROUND: Despite the substantial burden of IHD in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region, temporal trends of the burden of IHD were not systematically evaluated in this region and its countries previously. Methods: We reported deaths, premature mortality, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs of IHD in NAME region and its 21 countries during 1990-2019 using the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Premature IHD mortality was defined as IHD death in males <55 and females <65 years of age. Results: IHD accounted for 0.8 million deaths and 18 million DALYs in NAME in 2019. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized death rate of IHD significantly decreased by 29% (-37 to -22) and reached 219 (194 to 247) per 100,000 in NAME in 2019 (Fig A) compared with the global estimates of -31% (-35 to -27) and 118 (108 to 126), respectively. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of IHD significantly decreased by 33% (95% CI: -41 to -25) and reached 4159 (3651 to 4752) per 100,000 population in NAME in 2019 (Fig B) compared with the global estimates of -29% (-33 to -24) and 2243 (2099 to 2385), respectively. The reduction in age-standardized DALY was mostly derived from the reduction in YLL (-34%) rather than YLD (-4%) compared with worldwide estimates of -29% and -6%. While the decreasing pattern in the age-standardized DALY and death rate of IHD was consistently observed across all 21 NAME countries, it was not statistically significant for Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen (Fig C, D). In 2019, 27% of IHD deaths in females and 18% of IHD deaths in males were premature in NAME, which was higher than the worldwide estimates of 17% and 15%, respectively. Turkey, Iran, and Lebanon showed the greatest reduction in IHD premature mortality during 1990-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the improvements, IHD still remains the leading cause of lost death and DALYs in NAME. People are more likely to die prematurely due to IHD with more pronounced sex disparities in NAME compared with the global average.

Background The North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region has one of the highest burdens of ischemic heart disease (IHD) worldwide. This study reports the contemporary epidemiology of IHD in NAME. Methods and Results We estimated the incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs), and premature mortality of IHD, and its attributable risk factors in NAME from 1990 to 2019 using the results of the GBD (Global Burden of Disease study 2019). In 2019, 0.8 million lives and 18.0 million DALYs were lost due to IHD in NAME. From 1990 to 2019, the age‐standardized DALY rate of IHD significantly decreased by 33.3%, mostly due to the reduction of years of life lost rather than years lived with disability. In 2019, the proportion of premature death attributable to IHD was higher in NAME compared with global measures: 26.8% versus 16.9% for women and 18.4% versus 14.8% for men, respectively. The age‐standardized DALY rate of IHD attributed to metabolic risks, behavioral risks, and environmental/occupational risks significantly decreased by 28.7%, 37.8%, and 36.4%, respectively. Dietary risk factors, high systolic blood pressure, and high low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol were the top 3 risks contributing to the IHD burden in most countries of NAME in 2019. Conclusions In 2019, IHD was the leading cause of death and lost DALYs in NAME, where premature death due to IHD was greater than the global average. Despite the great reduction in the age‐standardized DALYs of IHD in NAME from 1990 to 2019, this region still had the second‐highest burden of IHD in 2019 globally.

Background Particulate matter (PM) pollution is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, causing substantial disease burden and deaths worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the global burden of cardiovascular diseases attributed to PM from 1990 to 2019. Methods and Results We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) study 2019 to investigate disability‐adjusted life‐years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and deaths attributed to PM as well as its subgroups. It was shown that all burden measures' age‐standardized rates for PM were in the same decreasing trend, with the highest decline recorded for deaths (−36.7%). However, the all‐age DALYs increased by 31%, reaching 8.9 million in 2019, to which YLLs contributed the most (8.2 million [95% uncertainty interval, 7.3 million–9.2 million]). Men had higher deaths, DALYs, and YLLs despite lower years lived with disability in 2019 compared with women. There was an 8.1% increase in the age‐standardized rate of DALYs for ambient PM; however, household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 65.4% in the assessed period. Although higher in men, the low and high sociodemographic index regions had the highest and lowest attributed YLLs/YLDs ratio for PM pollution in 2019, respectively. Conclusions Although the total age‐standardized rate of DALYs for PM‐attributed cardiovascular diseases diminished from 1990 to 2019, the global burden of PM on cardiovascular diseases has increased. The differences between men and women and between regions have clinical and policy implications in global health planning toward more exact funding and resource allocation, in addition to addressing inequity in health care access.

Abstract Background and objective Smoking is recognised as a critical public health priority due to its enormous health and economic consequences. Constant monitoring of the effectiveness of tobacco control programs calls for timely population-based data. This study reports the national and sub-national patterns in tobacco consumption among Iranian adults based on the results from the STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey 2021. Methods This study was performed through an analysis of the results of the STEPS survey 2021 which had been conducted as a nationally representative cross-sectional study. Participants included Iranian adults aged ≥ 18 years in all provinces of Iran, who were selected via multistage cluster sampling method. Data were analyzed via survey analysis while considering population weights. Results The total number of participants was 27874, including 15395 (55.23%) women and 12479 (44.77%) men. The all-ages prevalence (95% CI) of current tobacco smoking was 14.01% (13.56–14.48): 4.44% (4.09–4.82) among women and 25.88% (25.03–26.75) among men. The all-ages prevalence of current cigarette smoking was 9.33% (8.95–9.72): 0.77% (0.62–0.95) among women and 19.95% (19.17–20.75) among men. The all-ages prevalence of current hookah smoking was 4.5% (4.23–4.78): 3.64% (3.33, 3.98) among women and 5.56% (5.12–6.03) among men. The mean (SD) number of cigarettes smoked per day among current cigarettes smokers was 11.4 (9.82): 5.9 (6.76) among women and 11.65 (9.87) among men. The mean (SD) monthly times of hookah use was 23.87 (44.95): 29.93 (48.26) among women and 19.02 (41.52) among men. The national all-ages prevalence of second-hand smoking at home was 24.65 (24.06–25.25): 27.39 (26.6-28.19) among women and 20.28 (19.4-21.18) among men. The national all-ages prevalence of second-hand smoking at work was 20.73% (20.11–21.36): 17.96% (17.21–18.73) among women and 25.15% (24.07–26.26) among men. Conclusion The tobacco consumption in Iran remains alarmingly high, indicating the current tobacco control policy implementation level is ineffective and insufficient. This calls for adopting, implementing, and enforcing comprehensive packages of evidence-based tobacco control policies.

Abstract Venomous snakebite is an important cause of preventable death. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to halve snakebite mortality by 2030. We used verbal autopsy and vital registration data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal contact mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In 2019, 63,400 people (95% uncertainty interval 38,900–78,600) died globally from snakebites, which was equal to an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 0.8 deaths (0.5–1.0) per 100,000 and represents a 36% (2–49) decrease in ASMR since 1990. India had the greatest number of deaths in 2019, equal to an ASMR of 4.0 per 100,000 (2.3-5.0). We forecast mortality will continue to decline, but not sufficiently to meet the WHO’s goals. Improved data collection should be prioritized to help target interventions, improve burden estimation, and monitor progress.

AbstractBackgroundThyroid cancer (TC) is the most prevalent malignancy of the endocrine system. Over the past decades, TC incidence rates have been increasing. TC quality of care (QOC) has yet to be well understood. We aimed to assess the quality of TC care and its disparities.MethodsWe retrieved primary epidemiologic indices from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990–2017 database. We calculated four secondary indices of mortality to incidence ratio, disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, and years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLD) ratio and summarized them by the principal component analysis (PCA) to produce one unique index presented as the quality of care index (QCI) ranged between 0 and 100, to compare different scales. The gender disparity ratio (GDR), defined as the QCI for females divided by QCI for males, was applied to show gender inequity.ResultsIn 2017, there were 255,489 new TC incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 245,709–272,470) globally, which resulted in 41,235 deaths (39,911–44,139). The estimated global QCI was 84.39. The highest QCI was observed in the European region (93.84), with Italy having the highest score (99.77). Conversely, the lowest QCI was seen in the African region (55.09), where the Central African Republic scored the lowest (13.64). The highest and lowest socio‐demographic index (SDI) regions scored 97.27 and 53.85, respectively. Globally, gender disparity was higher after the age of 40 years and in favor of better care in women.ConclusionTC QOC is better among those countries of higher socioeconomic status, possibly due to better healthcare access and early detection in these regions. Overall, the quality of TC care was higher in women and younger adults. Countries could adopt the introduced index of QOC to investigate the quality of provided care for different diseases and conditions.

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Background: Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods: Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017. Results: Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 82 700–107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500–42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million–13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million–18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million–2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%–0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%–117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%–47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries. Conclusions: These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.