Bennett, Derrick

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

ObjectiveObservational studies point to an inverse correlation between low‐density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels and risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), but it remains unclear whether this association is causal. We tested the hypothesis that genetically elevated LDL is associated with reduced risk of ICH.MethodsWe constructed one polygenic risk score (PRS) per lipid trait (total cholesterol, LDL, high‐density lipoprotein [HDL], and triglycerides) using independent genomewide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for each trait. We used data from 316,428 individuals enrolled in the UK Biobank to estimate the effect of each PRS on its corresponding trait, and data from 1,286 ICH cases and 1,261 matched controls to estimate the effect of each PRS on ICH risk. We used these estimates to conduct Mendelian Randomization (MR) analyses.ResultsWe identified 410, 339, 393, and 317 lipid‐related SNPs for total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, and triglycerides, respectively. All four PRSs were strongly associated with their corresponding trait (all p < 1.00 × 10‐100). While one SD increase in the PRSs for total cholesterol (odds ratio [OR] = 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.85–0.99; p = 0.03) and LDL cholesterol (OR = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.81–0.95; p = 0.002) were inversely associated with ICH risk, no significant associations were found for HDL and triglycerides (both p > 0.05). MR analyses indicated that 1mmol/L (38.67mg/dL) increase of genetically instrumented total and LDL cholesterol were associated with 23% (OR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.65–0.98; p = 0.03) and 41% lower risks of ICH (OR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.42–0.82; p = 0.002), respectively.InterpretationGenetically elevated LDL levels were associated with lower risk of ICH, providing support for a potential causal role of LDL cholesterol in ICH. ANN NEUROL 2020 ANN NEUROL 2020;88:56–66

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.