Kumar, Vivek

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

AbstractBackgroundThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and National Cancer Database (NCDB) show improved overall survival (OS) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) over the last 15 years. This analysis evaluated the validity of the largely community‐based Connect MM Registry as a national reference for MM.MethodsBaseline disease characteristics and survival in US newly diagnosed MM patients were examined using the Connect MM Registry as well as SEER and NCDB databases. Baseline characteristics predictive of longer survival in Connect MM were also identified.ResultsAs of February 2017, 3011 patients were enrolled in the Connect MM Registry; 2912 were treated. Median age at time of MM diagnosis and age range were numerically similar from 2010 to 2015 across all 3 registries; SEER had a higher representation of nonwhite racial groups than that in the other 2 registries. OS rates suggest proportionate improvement with year of diagnosis among the 3 registries. A Cox proportional hazards model suggests that younger age (<65 years) is associated with longer survival (vs ≥75; HR, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.34‐0.46) in the Connect MM Registry. However, sex (HR, 0.91; P = .15) and race (black vs white; HR, 0.88; P = .21) were not associated with longer OS.ConclusionsData from the Connect MM Registry appear to be largely representative of national trends, comprehensive, and reliable representations of the national MM population. Baseline characteristics were comparable, and survival similarly improved over time among the 3 registries.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifierNCT01081028.