Criqui, Michael H.

Importance Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Assessing the LDL-C–related burden is critical for guiding prevention and treatment strategies. Objectives To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke attributable to elevated LDL-C (relative to 35-54 mg/dL) from 1990 to 2023 and to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, risk-deleted burden, and exposure changes to burden trends. Design, Setting, and Population This comparative risk assessment, part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, estimated population-level LDL-C exposure and associated health loss in 204 countries and territories. Mean LDL-C levels were estimated using spatiotemporal gaussian process regression based on 806 studies across 161 countries. Relative risks were derived from meta-analyses of 38 randomized clinical trials. Population-attributable fractions for deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for adults aged 25 years or older from 1990 to 2023, with 95% uncertainty intervals. Exposure Population-level LDL-C concentrations. Main Outcomes and Measures Population-attributable fractions, counts, and rates (all ages and age standardized per 100 000) of LDL-C–attributable deaths and DALYs from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, with uncertainty intervals. Results In 2023, elevated LDL-C accounted for 3.6 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval, 2.2-5.4 million; 6.0% of global mortality) and 90.7 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval, 58.9-123.3 million; 3.2% of DALYs). Although global all-ages rates remained stable, age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 45.6% and 39.5%, respectively, since 1990. In 2023, age-standardized LDL-C–attributable DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in high-income Asia-Pacific. One-third of the global LDL-C burden occurred in India and China. Population growth and aging drove the increasing burden, with notable regional disparities in LDL-C exposure and risk-deleted DALY rates shifting toward middle-sociodemographic settings. Conclusions and Relevance Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute LDL-C burden has increased since 1990 due to demographic changes and has shifted toward middle-sociodemographic countries. Measurement and surveillance gaps persist. Strengthened prevention, diagnosis, and treatment access strategies are essential to mitigate the health burden of LDL-C.

Importance Ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death in the US, is predominantly due to modifiable risk factors. Estimates of IHD mortality attributable to risk factors provide evidence for health policy decision-making. Objective To estimate the burden of IHD death attributable to risk factors in the US from 1990-2023. Design, Setting, and Participants The Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023) used vital records and a broad set of epidemiologic data to estimate IHD death rates, risk factor exposure, and relative risk curves for risk-outcome pairs for 1990-2023 for the general population. Data analysis was performed from October 2024 to December 2025. Exposure Twelve metabolic, behavioral, and environmental risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcomes were IHD death rates per 100 000 persons, counts, and attributable risks from 1990-2023 by age, sex, and US state. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). IHD death rates were estimated using ensemble modeling methods. Risk exposures were estimated using bayesian meta-regression methods. Relative risks were estimated following the Burden of Proof framework. Results In 2023, there were 473 000 IHD deaths (95% UI, 414 000-510 000) in the US, a decrease of 58.7% (95% UI, 56.8%-61.0%) in age-standardized rate since 1990. Between 2010 and 2023, there was a 19.0% decrease (95% UI, 15.0%-22.9%) for males and a 24.5% decrease (95% UI, 20.3%-29.7%) for females in IHD death rates. High systolic blood pressure (SBP), dietary risks, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were the leading risk factors for IHD deaths in 2023, accounting for 47.2% (95% UI, 36.4%-57.0%), 38.6% (95% UI, 17.2%-56.8%), and 28.5% (95% UI, 19.3%-39.6%) of IHD deaths, respectively. Increased exposure to several risk factors substantially increased their attributable burden for IHD deaths in 2023, with high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) increasing 38.8% (95% UI, 11.5%-81.1%) and high body mass index (BMI) increasing 54.5% (95% UI, 41.8%-66.3%) since 1990. Smoking and particulate matter pollution had the greatest decrease in attributable IHD mortality since 1990, at 33.3% (95% UI, 23.6%-41.7%) and 74.9% (95% UI, 46.7%-88.8%), respectively. Conclusion and Relevance Per the results of this systematic analysis of GBD 2023, a total of 88.7% (95% UI, 83.4%-92.5%) of IHD deaths were attributable to modifiable risk factors in the US in 2023, with high SBP, dietary risks, and high LDL-C being the greatest contributors. High BMI and high FPG showed the largest attribution increases, while exposure to other risks did not increase significantly for the population.

ImportanceStroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies.ObjectiveTo present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsAn in-depth cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study was conducted. The setting included the time period of 1990 to 2019 in the US. The study encompassed estimates for various types of strokes, including all strokes, ischemic strokes, intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). The 2019 Global Burden of Disease results were released on October 20, 2020.ExposuresIn this study, no particular exposure was specifically targeted.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary focus of this analysis centered on both overall and age-standardized estimates, stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs per 100 000 individuals.ResultsIn 2019, the US recorded 7.09 million prevalent strokes (4.07 million women [57.4%]; 3.02 million men [42.6%]), with 5.87 million being ischemic strokes (82.7%). Prevalence also included 0.66 million ICHs and 0.85 million SAHs. Although the absolute numbers of stroke cases, mortality, and DALYs surged from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates either declined or remained steady. Notably, hemorrhagic strokes manifested a substantial increase, especially in mortality, compared with ischemic strokes (incidence of ischemic stroke increased by 13% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 14.2%-11.9%]; incidence of ICH increased by 39.8% [95% UI, 38.9%-39.7%]; incidence of SAH increased by 50.9% [95% UI, 49.2%-52.6%]). The downturn in stroke mortality plateaued in the recent decade. There was a discernible heterogeneity in stroke burden trends, with older adults (50-74 years) experiencing a decrease in incidence in coastal areas (decreases up to 3.9% in Vermont), in contrast to an uptick observed in younger demographics (15-49 years) in the South and Midwest US (with increases up to 8.4% in Minnesota).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this cross-sectional study, the declining age-standardized stroke rates over the past 3 decades suggest progress in managing stroke-related outcomes. However, the increasing absolute burden of stroke, coupled with a notable rise in hemorrhagic stroke, suggests an evolving and substantial public health challenge in the US. Moreover, the significant disparities in stroke burden trends across different age groups and geographic locations underscore the necessity for region- and demography-specific interventions and policies to effectively mitigate the multifaceted and escalating burden of stroke in the country.

Background: Given the global burden of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and the associated morbidity, continuing investigation of potential biomarkers as therapeutic targets for preventing PAD is warranted. The association of P-selectin, an endothelial cell adhesion molecule, with the ankle brachial index (ABI) and PAD is not well established. Thus, we examined the association of circulating P-selectin with prevalent and incident PAD, the ABI, and change in the ABI. Methods: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a prospective population-based cohort including 6814 non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic and Chinese men and women aged 45-84 at baseline (2000-02). For this analysis, 5700 participants with both P-selectin at Exam 2 (2002-04) and the ABI at Exam 3 (2004-05) were available, with change in ABI from Exam 3 to Exam 5 (2010-12) available on 4276 participants. P-selectin was modeled per standard deviation (SD), while prevalent and incident PAD were defined as ABI ≤ 0.90 after excluding those with ABI>1.4. Linear regression was used for ABI, growth curve models for change in ABI, and logistic regression for prevalent and incident PAD. Results: In models adjusted for demographics, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, blood pressure, lipids, fasting glucose, c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), D-dimer, and fibrinogen, each SD (13 ng/mL) higher P-selectin was significantly associated with 0.007 lower ABI (95% CI ((-0.011, -0.004)), p<0.001), and an average change in the ABI of -0.006 ((-0.010, -0.003, p<0.001). P-selectin was also significantly associated with a 1.14-fold greater odds of prevalent PAD ((1.00, 1.28), p=0.04), and a 1.30-fold greater odds of incident PAD ((1.10, 1.55), p<0.001). There were no significant interactions of p-selectin by race/ethnicity or gender. Addition of P-selectin to models containing traditional PAD risk factors as well as CRP, IL-6, D-dimer and fibrinogen did not improve the c-statistic or net reclassification for incident PAD. Conclusions: P-selectin appears to be strongly associated with the development of PAD. However, further research is needed in population-based studies to confirm prospective associations of p-selectin with incident PAD and change in the ABI.

Higher levels of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) have been associated with the presence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), but prospective associations are unknown. We examined the association of circulating HGF levels with incident PAD. Between 2000 and 2002, HGF was measured in 6742 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants without PAD. Incident clinical PAD, adjudicated on the basis of a positive history for the presence of disease-related symptoms or treatment, was ascertained through 2015. Incident low ankle-brachial index (ABI), defined as an ABI < 0.9 and a decline of ≥ 0.15, was assessed among 5736 individuals who had an ABI > 0.9 at baseline and ≥1 follow-up ABI measurement 3 to 10 years later. There were 116 clinical PAD and 197 low ABI events that occurred over a median follow-up of 14 and 9 years, respectively. After adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, a standard deviation increment of HGF (303 ng/L) was associated with an increased risk of clinical PAD (hazard ratio: 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.39) but not a low ABI (rate ratio: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.85-1.25). In conclusion, higher HGF levels were modestly associated with an increased risk of developing clinical PAD.

Data are limited on whether valvular calcification is associated with aortic wall stiffness. We tested whether aortic valve calcification (AVC) and/or mitral valve calcification (MVC) is inversely associated with aortic distensibility (AD). Cross-sectional study conducted in a subset of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) included 3676 MESA participants aged 44 to 84 years with AD measured with magnetic resonance imaging and with AVC and MVC measured with noncontrast cardiac computed tomography scans. Both AVC and MVC were divided into 3 categories: zero, < median values (low), and ≥ median values (high) for patients with nonzero values. Overall, 88% (n = 3256) and 92% (n = 3365) of participants had zero AVC and MVC, while 6% (n = 211) and 4% (n = 156) had low, and 6% (n = 209) and 4% (n = 155) had high values of AVC and MVC, respectively. The AVC was independently associated with AD after adjusting for age, gender, and ethnicity ( P = .035). No association was noted between AVC groups and AD after adjustment for all covariates or MVC groups and AD in any model.

Inflammation plays a pivotal role in peripheral artery disease (PAD). Cellular adhesion proteins mediate the interaction of leukocytes with endothelial cells during inflammation. To determine the association of cellular adhesion molecules with ankle–brachial index (ABI) and ABI category (≤1.0 vs >1.0) in a diverse population, 15 adhesion proteins were measured in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). To assess multivariable associations of each protein with ABI and ABI category, linear and logistic regression was used, respectively. Among 2364 participants, 23 presented with poorly compressible arteries (ABI > 1.4) and were excluded and 261 had ABI ≤ 1.0. Adjusting for traditional risk factors, elevated levels of soluble P-selectin, hepatocyte growth factor, and secretory leukocyte protease inhibitor were associated with lower ABI ( P = .0004, .001, and .002, respectively). Per each standard deviation of protein, we found 26%, 20%, and 19% greater odds of lower ABI category ( P = .001, .01, and .02, respectively). Further investigation into the adhesion pathway may shed new light on biological mechanisms implicated in PAD.

Objective— To evaluate the predictive value of abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) independent of coronary artery calcium (CAC). Approach and Results— We evaluated the association of AAC with CVD in 1974 men and women aged 45 to 84 years randomly selected from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who had complete AAC and CAC data from computed tomographic scans. AAC and CAC were each divided into following 3 percentile categories: 0 to 50th, 51st to 75th, and 76th to 100th. During a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, there were 50 hard coronary heart disease events, 83 hard CVD events, 30 fatal CVD events, and 105 total deaths. In multivariable-adjusted Cox models including both AAC and CAC, comparing the fourth quartile with the ≤50th percentile, AAC and CAC were each significantly and independently predictive of hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, with hazard ratios ranging from 2.4 to 4.4. For CVD mortality, the hazard ratio was highly significant for the fourth quartile of AAC, 5.9 ( P =0.01), whereas the association for the fourth quartile of CAC (hazard ratio, 2.1) was not significant. For total mortality, the fourth quartile hazard ratio for AAC was 2.7 ( P =0.001), and for CAC, it was 1.9, P =0.04. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed improvement for both AAC and CAC separately, although improvement was greater with CAC for hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, and greater with AAC for CVD mortality and total mortality. Sensitivity analyses defining AAC and CAC as continuous variables mirrored these results. Conclusions— AAC and CAC predicted hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD events independent of one another. Only AAC was independently related to CVD mortality, and AAC showed a stronger association than CAC with total mortality.

Abstract We tested whether the association between bone mineral density (BMD) and coronary artery calcification (CAC) varies according to dyslipidemia in community-living individuals. Between 2002 and 2005, 305 women and 631 men (mean age of 64 years), who were not taking lipid-lowering medications or estrogen were assessed for spine BMD, CAC, and total (TC), HDL- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides. Participants were a random sample from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) without clinical cardiovascular disease. Spine BMD at the L3 vertebrate was performed by computer tomography (CT). CAC prevalence was measured by CT. The total cholesterol to HDL ratio (TC:HDL) ≥ 5.0 was used as the primary marker of hyperlipidemia. The association of BMD with CAC differed in women with TC:HDL &lt; 5.0 versus higher (p-interaction = 0.01). In age- and race-adjusted models, among women with TC:HDL &lt; 5.0, each SD (43.4 mg/cc) greater BMD was associated with a 25% lower prevalence of CAC (prevalence ratio [PR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63–0.89), whereas among women with higher TC:HDL, higher BMD was not significantly associated with CAC (PR 1.22, 95% CI 0.82–1.82). Results were similar using other definitions of hyperlipidemia. In contrast, no consistent association was observed between BMD and CAC in men, irrespective of the TC:HDL ratio (p interaction 0.54). The inverse association of BMD with CAC is stronger in women without dyslipidemia. These data argue against the hypothesis that dyslipidemia is the key factor responsible for the inverse association of BMD with atherosclerosis. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research