Citations

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background: Preclinical studies and pilot patient studies have shown that chronic infarctions can be detected and characterized from cardiac magnetic resonance without gadolinium-based contrast agents using native-T1 maps at 3T. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic capacity of this approach for characterizing chronic myocardial infarctions (MIs) in a multi-center setting. Methods: Patients with a prior MI (n=105) were recruited at 3 different medical centers and were imaged with native-T1 mapping and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) at 3T. Infarct location, size, and transmurality were determined from native-T1 maps and LGE. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver-operating characteristic metrics, and inter- and intraobserver variabilities were assessed relative to LGE. Results: Across all subjects, T1 of MI territory was 1621±110 ms, and remote territory was 1225±75 ms. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under curve for detecting MI location based on native-T1 mapping relative to LGE were 88%, 92%, and 0.93, respectively. Native-T1 maps were not different for measuring infarct size (native-T1 maps: 12.1±7.5%; LGE: 11.8±7.2%, P =0.82) and were in agreement with LGE ( R 2 =0.92, bias, 0.09±2.6%). Corresponding inter- and intraobserver assessments were also highly correlated (interobserver: R 2 =0.90, bias, 0.18±2.4%; and intraobserver: R 2 =0.91, bias, 0.28±2.1%). Native T1 maps were not different for measuring MI transmurality (native-T1 maps: 49.1±15.8%; LGE: 47.2±19.0%, P =0.56) and showed agreement ( R 2 =0.71; bias, 1.32±10.2%). Corresponding inter- and intraobserver assessments were also in agreement (interobserver: R 2 =0.81, bias, 0.1±9.4%; and intraobserver: R 2 =0.91, bias, 0.28±2.1%, respectively). While the overall accuracy for detecting MI with native-T1 maps at 3T was high, logistic regression analysis showed that MI location was a prominent confounder. Conclusions: Native-T1 mapping can be used to image chronic MI with high degree of accuracy, and as such, it is a viable alternative for scar imaging in patients with chronic MI who are contraindicated for LGE. Technical advancements may be needed to overcome the imaging confounders that currently limit native-T1 mapping from reaching equivalent detection levels as LGE.

5043 Background: Pathologic complete response (pCR) after NAC for MIBC is strongly correlated with long-term overall survival. However, there are sparse data on the risk of recurrence based on depth of pathologic response (pT0, pTa, pTis, pT1), and the differential impact of clinicopathologic factors and NAC regimen on recurrence. Methods: Baseline data on all pts with cT2-4N0-1 MIBC receiving NAC and who achieved < ypT2N0 disease at radical cystectomy (RC) from 9 international centers were obtained. The key outcome was time to recurrence (TTR) – defined as the time to any recurrence in the urinary tract or regional/distant metastasis, with death (in the absence of recurrence) considered a competing risk. Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the impact of clinical factors on recurrence. Results: A total of 506 pts were available. Median age was 66 years (range 33-86) and 78% (n = 396) were male; median follow-up after RC was 2.6 years. The majority of patients had pure urothelial histology (n = 371, 73%), and baseline stage was cT2N0 (n = 368, 73%), cT3-4N0 (n = 95, 19%) and TanyN1 (n = 43, 9%). NAC regimens were gemcitabine-cisplatin (GC, n = 296, 59%), dose-dense methotrexate-vinblastine-doxorubicin-cisplatin (ddMVAC, n = 141, 28%), split-dose GC (n = 29, 6%), MVAC (n = 29, 6%) and non-cisplatin based regimens (n = 11, 2%). At RC, 304 patients (60%) had ypT0N0 disease, 32 (6%) had ypTaN0, 107 (21%) had ypTisN0 and 63 (13%) had ypT1N0. Overall, 43 patients (8%) recurred with a median TTR of 56 weeks (range 7-251); 5-year freedom from recurrence was 87% (95% CI 83-91). The majority (n = 38) recurred outside the urinary tract. On multivariable analysis, ypTa (HR = 3.36 [1.24-9.11]) and ypT1 (HR = 2.88 [1.33-6.22], p = 0.013) disease at RC were predictors of shorter TTR, while female sex was associated with longer TTR (HR = 0.52 [0.27-0.98], p = 0.043). The type of NAC was not predictive of TTR (GC vs. other, HR = 1.49 [0.75-2.97], p = 0.26). Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the largest study to quantify the risk of recurrence in pts achieving pathologic response after NAC and RC for MIBC. 8% of patients undergoing NAC and achieving < ypT2N0 at RC recurred. Residual ypTa and ypT1 disease conferred a significantly higher risk of recurrence, while ypTis did not; female sex was associated with a lower risk of recurrence. Importantly, the type of cisplatin-based NAC regimen used was not an independent predictor of recurrence.

Abstract Aims Increased medial mitral annulus early diastolic velocity (e′) plays an important role in the echocardiographic diagnosis of constrictive pericarditis (CP) and mitral e′ velocity is also a marker of underlying myocardial disease. We assessed the prognostic implication of mitral e′ for long-term mortality after pericardiectomy in patients with CP. Methods and results We studied 104 surgically confirmed CP patients who underwent echocardiography and cardiac catheterization within 7 days between 2005 and 2013. Patients were classified as primary CP (n = 45) or mixed CP (n = 59) based on the clinical history of concomitant myocardial disease. On multivariable analysis, medial e′ velocity and mean pulmonary artery pressure were independently associated with long-term mortality post-pericardiectomy. There were significant differences in survival rates among the groups divided by cut-off values of 9.0 cm/s and 29 mmHg for medial e′ and mean pulmonary artery pressure, respectively (both P &lt; 0.001). Ninety-two patients (88.5%) had elevated pulmonary artery wedge pressure (PAWP) (≥15 mmHg); there was no significant correlation between medial E/e′ and PAWP (r = 0.002, P = 0.998). However, despite the similar PAWP between primary CP and mixed CP groups (21.6 ± 5.4 vs. 21.2 ± 5.8, P = 0.774), all primary CP individuals with elevated PAWP had medial E/e′ &lt;15 as opposed to 34 patients (57.6%) in the mixed CP group (P &lt; 0.001). Conclusion Increased mitral e′ velocity is associated with better outcomes in patients with CP. A paradoxical distribution of the relationship between E/e′ and PAWP is present in these patients but there is no direct inverse correlation between them.

Background and Aims Portopulmonary hypertension (POPH) was previously associated with a single‐nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs7175922 in aromatase (cytochrome P450 family 19 subfamily A member 1 [CYP19A1]). We sought to determine whether genetic variants and metabolites in the estrogen signaling pathway are associated with POPH. Approach and Results We performed a multicenter case‐control study. POPH patients had mean pulmonary artery pressure >25 mm Hg, pulmonary vascular resistance >240 dyn‐sec/cm−5, and pulmonary artery wedge pressure ≤15 mm Hg without another cause of pulmonary hypertension. Controls had advanced liver disease, right ventricular (RV) systolic pressure <40 mm Hg, and normal RV function by echocardiography. We genotyped three SNPs in CYP19A1 and CYP1B1 using TaqMan and imputed SNPs in estrogen receptor 1 using genome‐wide markers. Estrogen metabolites were measured in blood and urine samples. There were 37 patients with POPH and 290 controls. Mean age was 57 years, and 36% were female. The risk allele A in rs7175922 (CYP19A1) was significantly associated with higher levels of estradiol (P = 0.02) and an increased risk of POPH (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12‐4.91; P = 0.02) whereas other SNPs were not. Lower urinary 2‐hydroxyestrogen/16‐α‐hydroxyestrone (OR per 1‐ln decrease = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.16‐3.57; P = 0.01), lower plasma levels of dehydroepiandrosterone‐sulfate (OR per 1‐ln decrease = 2.38; 95% CI, 1.56‐3.85; P < 0.001), and higher plasma levels of 16‐α‐hydroxyestradiol (OR per 1‐ln increase = 2.16; 95% CI, 1.61‐2.98; P < 0.001) were associated with POPH. Conclusions Genetic variation in aromatase and changes in estrogen metabolites were associated with POPH.

Abstract Aims: We sought to determine which echocardiographic markers of left ventricular (LV) remodeling and diastolic dysfunction can contribute as incremental and independent prognostic information in addition to current clinical risk markers of ischemic LV systolic dysfunction in the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) trial.Methods and Results: The cohort consisted of 1511 of 2136 patients in STICH for whom baseline transmitral Doppler (E/A ratio) could be measured by an echocardiographic core laboratory blinded to treatment and outcomes, and prognostic value of echocardiographic variables was determined by a Cox regression model. E/A ratio was the most significant predictor of mortality amongst diastolic variables with lowest mortality for E/A closest 0.8, although mortality was consistently low for E/A 0.6 to 1.0. Mortality increased for E/A <0.6 and > 1.0 up to approximately 2.3, beyond which there was no further increase in risk. Larger LV end-systolic volume index (LVESVI) and E/A <0.6 and >1.0 had incremental negative effects on mortality when added to a clinical multivariable model, where creatinine, LVESVI, age, and E/A ratio accounted for 74% of the prognostic information for predicting risk. LVESVI and E/A ratio were stronger predictors of prognosis than New York Heart Association functional class, anemia, diabetes, history of atrial fibrillation, and stroke.Conclusions: Echocardiographic markers of advanced LV remodeling and diastolic dysfunction added incremental prognostic value to current clinical risk markers. LVESVI and E/A ratio outperformed other markers and should be considered as standard in assessing risks in ischemic heart failure. E/A closest to 0.8 was the most optimal filling pattern.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Background: Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) is associated with long-term outcomes of patients with severe aortic stenosis. However, its prognostic value in patients with moderate aortic stenosis remains unknown. Methods: Patients diagnosed with moderate aortic stenosis (1.0< aortic valve area ≤1.5 cm 2 ) and left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50% were identified. GLS was assessed by 2-dimensional strain imaging using speckle-tracking method. All-cause mortality was assessed according to the median GLS value. Results: Two hundred eighty-seven patients were included (median age 76 years; 47% male). Mean aortic valve area was 1.25 cm 2 , left ventricular ejection fraction 62%, and median GLS −15.2%. During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, there were 103 deaths (36%). Mortality was higher in patients with GLS>−15.2% (hazard ratio 2.62 [95% CI 1.69–4.06]) compared with patients with GLS ≤−15.2% even after adjusting for confounders. Mortality rates at 1, 3, 5 years were 21%, 35%, 48%, respectively, in patients with GLS >−15.2%, and 6%, 15%, 19% in those with GLS ≤−15.2%. Even among those with left ventricular ejection fraction ≥60%, GLS discriminated higher-risk patients ( P =0.0003). During follow-up, 106 (37%) patients underwent aortic valve replacement with median waiting-time of 2.4 years, and their survival was better than patients without aortic valve replacement. Among those patients undergoing aortic valve replacement, prognosis was still worse in patients with GLS >−15.2% ( P =0.04). Mortality rates at 1, 3, 5 years were 2%, 10%, 20%, respectively, in patients with GLS >-15.2% and 2%, 5%, 6% in those with GLS ≤−15.2%. Conclusions: Impaired GLS in moderate aortic stenosis patients is associated with higher mortality rates even among those undergoing aortic valve replacement.