Citations

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background: South Asians are at a significantly increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD), are diagnosed at relatively younger ages, and exhibit more severe disease phenotypes as compared with other ethnic groups. The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying T2D and CVD risk in South Asians are multifactorial and intricately related. Method: A narrative review of the pathophysiology of excess risk of T2D and CVD in South Asians. Result: T2D and CVD have shared risk factors that encompass biological factors (early life influences, impaired glucose metabolism, and adverse body composition) as well as behavioral and environmental risk factors (diet, sedentary behavior, tobacco use, and social determinants of health). Genetics and epigenetics also play a role in explaining the increased risk of T2D and CVD among South Asians. Additionally, South Asians harbor several lipid abnormalities including high concentration of small-dense low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles, elevated triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL)- cholesterol levels, dysfunctional HDL particles, and elevated lipoprotein(a) that predispose them to CVD. Conclusion: In this comprehensive review, we have discussed risk factors that provide insights into the pathophysiology of excess risk of T2D and CVD in South Asians.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has historically produced estimates of causes of injury such as falls but not the resulting types of injuries that occur. The objective of this study was to estimate the global incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to facial fractures and to estimate the leading injurious causes of facial fracture. Methods We obtained results from GBD 2017. First, the study estimated the incidence from each injury cause (eg, falls), and then the proportion of each cause that would result in facial fracture being the most disabling injury. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs of facial fractures are then calculated across causes. Results Globally, in 2017, there were 7 538 663 (95% uncertainty interval 6 116 489 to 9 493 113) new cases, 1 819 732 (1 609 419 to 2 091 618) prevalent cases, and 117 402 (73 266 to 169 689) YLDs due to facial fractures. In terms of age-standardised incidence, prevalence and YLDs, the global rates were 98 (80 to 123) per 100 000, 23 (20 to 27) per 100 000, and 2 (1 to 2) per 100 000, respectively. Facial fractures were most concentrated in Central Europe. Falls were the predominant cause in most regions. Conclusions Facial fractures are predominantly caused by falls and occur worldwide. Healthcare systems and public health agencies should investigate methods of all injury prevention. It is important for healthcare systems in every part of the world to ensure access to treatment resources.

Background. In December 2018, United Network for Organ Sharing approved an allocation scheme based on recipients’ geographic distance from a deceased donor (acuity circles [ACs]). Previous analyses suggested that ACs would reduce waitlist mortality overall, but their impact on pediatric subgroups was not considered. Methods. We applied Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from 2011 to 2016 toward the Liver Simulated Allocation Model to compare outcomes by age and illness severity for the United Network for Organ Sharing–approved AC and the existing donor service area–/region-based allocation schemes. Means from each allocation scheme were compared using matched-pairs t tests. Results. During a 3-year period, AC allocation is projected to decrease waitlist deaths in infants (39 versus 55; P < 0.001), children (32 versus 50; P < 0.001), and teenagers (15 versus 25; P < 0.001). AC allocation would increase the number of transplants in infants (707 versus 560; P < 0.001), children (677 versus 547; P < 0.001), and teenagers (404 versus 248; P < 0.001). AC allocation led to decreased median pediatric end-stage liver disease/model for end-stage liver disease at transplant for infants (29 versus 30; P = 0.01), children (26 versus 29; P < 0.001), and teenagers (26 versus 31; P < 0.001). Additionally, AC allocation would lead to fewer transplants in status 1B in children (97 versus 103; P = 0.006) but not infants or teenagers. With AC allocation, 77% of pediatric donor organs would be allocated to pediatric candidates, compared to only 46% in donor service area–/region-based allocation (P < 0.001). Conclusions. AC allocation will likely address disparities for pediatric liver transplant candidates and recipients by increasing transplants and decreasing waitlist mortality. It is more consistent with federally mandated requirements for organ allocation.

Abstract Background In a seminal report (NEJM 2011;30:2496), ASXL1, TP53, EZH2, ETV6 and RUNX1 mutations in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) were shown to carry an adverse prognostic impact that was independent of the international prognostic scoring system (IPSS) (Blood 1997;89:2079). Two recent studies (Leukemia20 May 2016; doi: 10.1038/leu.2016.138; Leukemia. 2014;28:241) have proposed mutation-enhanced prognostic models that include the revised IPSS (IPSS-R) (Blood 2012;120:2454 ). In the current study, we applied targeted next generation sequencing (NGS) in order to examine the prognostic interaction between adverse mutations and IPSS-R. Methods The study population was recruited from our institutional database of patients with primary MDS, based on availability of archived DNA from the time of diagnosis. The diagnosis of MDS and leukemic transformation (LT) was made according to WHO criteria (Blood. 2009;114:937). Targeted capture assays were carried out, on bone marrow DNA specimens, for the following genes: TET2, DNMT3A, IDH1, IDH2, ASXL1, EZH2, SUZ12, SRSF2, SF3B1, ZRSR2, U2AF1, PTPN11, Tp53, SH2B3, RUNX1, CBL, NRAS, JAK2, CSF3R, FLT3, KIT, CALR, MPL, NPM1, CEBPA, IKZF, and SETBP1.Specific variants were deemed as mutations if they are associated with a hematologic malignancy (as identified by COSMIC database), or if they have not been associated with a dbSNP. Results Patient characteristics and type and number of mutations: 179 patients were evaluated (median age 73 years; 68% males). IPSS-R risk distribution was 11% very high, 18% high, 16% intermediate, 39% low and 16% very low. At least one mutation was seen in 139 (78%) patients including 17% with one mutation, 29% with 2, 20% with 3, 10% with four, 2% with 5 and one patient with 6 mutations. The most frequent mutations were ASXL1 (30%), SF3B1 (20%), TET2 (17%), U2AF1 (16%) and SRSF2 (16%). Mutation clusters and clinical correlates: ASXL1 mutations were associated with the absence of SF3B1 (p=0.007), U2AF1 (p=0.01) and SRSF2 (p=0.003) mutations; SF3B1 with absence of U2AF1 (p=0.004) and SRSF2 (p=0.004) mutations; and U2AF1 with absence of SRSF2 mutations (p=0.01). Clinical correlates of ASXL1 mutations included older age, lower hemoglobin, and lower risk karyotype; SF3B1 with higher leukocyte count, higher platelet count, lower bone marrow blast percentage and lower risk karyotype; TET2 with older age and higher hemoglobin. Univariate overall and leukemia-free survival analysis before and after adjusting for IPSS-R: In univariate analysis, ASXL1, RUNX1 and TP53 mutations adversely and SF3B1 favorably affected survival; only ASXL1 mutations retained significance when analysis was adjusted for IPSS-R (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.1; p=0.03). For leukemia-free survival, univariate analysis identified SRSF2, which was near-significant for overall survival (p=0.06), and RUNX1 mutations as adverse and SF3B1 mutations as favorable risk factors; SRSF2 (HR 4.1, 95% CI 1.6-10.2) and SF3B1-unmutated (HR 5.9, 95% CI 1.1-31.5) retained their significance when adjusted for IPSS-R. A borderline significance (p=0.07) indicating inferior survival for patients with three or more mutations was fully accounted for by the significant (P<0.0001) association between the presence of ASXL1 mutations and higher number of mutations. Multivariable analysis with individual IPSS-R variables: When the five IPSS-R variables (hemoglobin, platelets, absolute neutrophil count, bone marrow blast percentage and karyotype) were analyzed (both as continuous and IPSS-R-defined categorical variables) with each one of the aforementioned mutations with significant effect on overall or leukemia-free survival, only ASXL1 retained its significance for overall survival (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.3) and SRSF2 (HR 5.2, 95% CI 2.1-13.3) for leukemia-free survival. Other IPSS-R variables that retained their significance for survival, in the presence of ASXL1 mutation status as a covariate, included hemoglobin level, platelet count and karyotype. Conclusions: In our cohort of 179 molecularly-annotated patients with newly-diagnosed primary MDS, ASXL1 and SRSF2 mutations were identified as IPSS-R-independent risk factors for overall and leukemia-free survival, respectively. The current study also suggests the need to re-evaluate currently established risk factors, in the context of prognostically-relevant molecular information. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background We have previously shown an independent adverse prognostic effect of lymphopenia (absolute lymphocyte count <1.2 x 10(9)/L) for survival in MDS (Jacobs et al. Am J Hematol 2010;85:160) whereas others have suggested a similar value from lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR); patients with LMR ≥5 experienced shorter survival with median 67 vs. 126 months (Mushtaq et al. JCO May 20 Supp. 2016:7062). Whether or not "monocytopenia" also carries a prognostic value in MDS is currently unknown and was the main objective for the current study, which also addresses the prognostic value of LMR. Methods We retrospectively recruited 889 consecutive patients with primary MDS who were untreated at the time of referral to our institution and in whom absolute monocyte count (AMC) and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) at time of referral were documented. The diagnosis of MDS and leukemic transformation (LT) was made according to WHO criteria (Blood. 2009;114:937). Complete follow-up information was updated in January 2015. For the purposes of the current study, monocytopenia was defined as AMC below the lower limit of the institutional normal range, which was 0.3 to 0.9 x 10(9)/L. Comparisons of survival and other clinical parameters were performed between i) patients with and without monocytopenia and ii) patients with and without LMR ≥5. Conventional methods were used for statistical analysis. Results Patient characteristics: Median (range) values for the 889 study patients (69% males) included: age 72 (18-98), hemoglobin 9.6 g/dL (5.4-15.7), leukocyte count 3.4 x 10(9)/L (0.4-35), platelet count 106 x 10(9)/L (2-1804), circulating blasts 0% (0-18), bone marrow blasts 3% (0-19) and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) 1.2 x 10(9)/L (.02-8.9). Transfusion need was documented in 33% of patients and abnormal cytogenetics in 49%. Risk stratification by the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) was very high in 11%, high in 16%, intermediate in 21%, low in 36% and very low in 16%. The median (range) AMC for the entire study population of 889 patients was 0.22 x 10(9)/L (0.0-1.8).The number of patients with subnormal AMC was 539 (61%). After a median follow-up of 27 months, 712 (80%) deaths and 116 (13%) leukemic transformations were documented. Comparison of patients stratified by absolute monocyte count and LMR Compared to patients with AMC >0.3 x 10(9)/L, MDS patients with monocytopenia displayed younger age (p<0.0001), lower hemoglobin (p=0.005), higher red blood cell transfusion need (p=0.03), lower leukocyte count (p<0.0001), lower platelet count (p<0.0001), lower absolute neutrophil count (p<0.0001), higher circulating (p=0.03) and bone marrow (p<0.0001) blasts, higher incidence of abnormal karyotype (p=0.03), and higher risk distribution in terms of both IPSS-R (p<0.0001) and cytogenetic risk stratification by IPSS-R (p=0.03). In univariate analysis, lower AMC was associated with inferior survival (p=0.002); significance was even more apparent when comparing patients with and without monocytopenia (p=0.0003; HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). Similarly, there was significant association between LMR and survival (p<0.0001) with patients with LMR ≥5 experiencing inferior survival (p=0.03; HR 1.2; 95% CI 1.02-1.4). In multivariable analysis, the adverse effect of monocytopenia was shown to be independent of age (p<0.0001), gender (p=0.0001), anemia (Hemoglobin <10 g/dL; p=0.002), thrombocytopenia (platelets <100 x 10(9)/L; p=0.01), neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count <0.8 x 10 (9)/L; p=0.005), subnormal ALC (p=0.0008), circulating blast percentage (p=0.002), cytogenetic risk stratification by IPSS-R (p=0.006) and LMR (p=0.02) or LMR ≥5 (p=0.002); however, significance was lost when risk stratification by IPSS-R was added to the multivariable analysis (p=0.7). In regards to LMR, it retained its significance (p=0.009) during multivariable analysis that included monocytopenia or subnormal ALC, as covariates; however, significance was lost in the context of IPSS-R (p=0.24 for LMR and 0.8 for LMR ≥5) Conclusions Monocytopenia in MDS clusters with adverse disease features and both monocytopenia and higher LMR were associated with poor survival. Despite the display of prognostic independence from each other and other risk factors considered individually, the survival impact of neither monocytopenia nor LMR was found to be independent of IPSS-R. Disclosures Al-Kali: Novartis: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding.

Abstract Background In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), we have previously shown the adverse prognostic effect of ALC <1.2 x 10(9)/L (Nisha et al. Am J Hematol 2010;85:160). In the current larger study of 889 patients with MDS, we sought to validate and expand on our previous observations and also examine the effect of lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR). Methods We retrospectively recruited 889 consecutive patients with primary MDS who were untreated at the time of referral to our institution, and in whom ALC and absolute monocyte count (AMC) at time of referral was documented. The diagnosis of MDS and leukemic transformation (LT) was according to WHO criteria (Blood. 2009;114:937). Complete follow-up information was updated in January 2015. Comparison of laboratory and clinical features was made between patients with subnormal and normal ALC; patients with above normal ALC were considered separately. Overall and leukemia-free survivals of patients with normal ALC was compared to those with either subnormal ALC or, in order to validate our previous observation, with ALC <1.2 x 10(9)/L. Results Patient characteristics: Median (range) values for the 889 study patients (69% males) included: age 72 (18-98), hemoglobin 9.6 g/dL (5.4-15.7), leukocyte count 3.4 x 10(9)/L (0.4-35), AMC 0.2 x 10(9)/L (0-1.7), platelet count 106 x 10(9)/L (2-1804), circulating blasts 0% (0-18) and bone marrow blasts 3% (0-19). Transfusion need was documented in 33% of patients and abnormal karyotype in 49%. Risk stratification by the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) was very high in 10%, high in 16%, intermediate in 20%, low in 36% and very low in 16%. The median (range) ALC for the entire study population of 889 patients was 1.16 x 10(9)/L (0.02-8.9). The normal range of ALC at our institution was 0.9-2.9 x 10(9)/L; the number of patients with subnormal, normal and above normal ALC was 261 (29%), 598 (67%) and 30 (4%), respectively. In addition, 442 (50%) and 417 (47%) patients had ALC below 1.2 x 10(9)/L and ALC between 1.2 and the upper limit of normal, respectively. After a median follow-up of 27 months, 712 (80%) deaths and 116 (13%) leukemic transformations were documented. Comparison of patients stratified by absolute lymphocyte count Compared to patients with normal ALC, patients with subnormal ALC displayed lower hemoglobin (p=0.002), higher red blood cell transfusion need (p=0.0003), lower leukocyte count (p<0.0001), lower monocyte count (p=0.002) and lower platelet count (p<0.0001), whereas borderline association was also apparent for older age (p=0.06). In univariate analysis, survival was adversely affected by lower ALC, treated as a continuous variable (p=0.01). Similarly, when compared to patients with normal ALC, patients with subnormal ALC (p=0.001; HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5) and those with ALC <1.2 x 10(9)/L (p=0.0002; HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.6) experienced significantly shortened survival. There was no difference in survival between patients with above normal ALC and those with either subnormal (p=0.58) or normal (p=0.41) ALC; accordingly, patients with above normal ALC were excluded from subsequent analysis. In multivariable analysis, the adverse effect of subnormal ALC was shown to be independent of age, gender, anemia, thrombocytopenia, neutropenia , circulating blast percentage, bone marrow blast percentage or cytogenetic risk stratification by and IPSS; the same held true for ALC <1.2 x 10(9)/L. The association with IPSS-R was of borderline significance for both ALC <1.2 x 10(9)/L (p=0.06) and subnormal ALC (p=0.1). The adverse effect of ALC was most apparent in patients with very low or low risk disease per IPSS-R (p=0.0007 for subnormal ALC and 0.0003 for ALC <1.2 x 10(9)/L), compared to those with higher risk status (p=0.67 and 0.7, respectively). Neither subnormal ALC (p=0.4) nor ALC <1.2 x 10(9)/L (p=0.1) affected leukemia free survival. Analysis using LMR in place of ALC showed similar but not necessarily superior results. Conclusions Compared to those with normal ALC, MDS patients with either subnormal ALC or with ALC below 1.2 x 10(9)/L experienced shorter overall, but not leukemia-free, survival; this adverse effect was most apparent in lower risk patients and was independent of most of the currently established risk factors for survival in MDS. The observations from the current study suggest the possible therapeutic value of augmenting host immunity in lower risk MDS. Disclosures Al-Kali: Onconova Therapeutics, Inc.: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding.