Mudireddy, Mythri

Abstract Background: Current prognostication in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) utilizes MIPSS70 (mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring system for transplant-age patients), MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (karyotype-enhanced MIPSS70) and GIPSS (genetically-inspired prognostic scoring system, which is based on mutations and karyotype) (JCO 2018;36:310; JCO doi: 10.1200/JCO.2018.78.9867; Leukemia. 2018;doi:10.1038/s41375-018-0107). These contemporary models are inter-complimentary and highly efficient in predicting overall survival. However, specific risk factors for very long survival (e.g. 20+ years) and short-term mortality (i.e. death within 5 years of diagnosis) have not been systematically looked into. Methods: Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses were according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Logistic regression statistics was used to identify predictors of 20-year survival and 5-year mortality. Variables evaluated in the logistic model included those that are currently listed in MIPSS70, MIPSS70+ version 2.0 and GIPSS, as well as age (≤70 vs >70 years) and sex. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to estimate predictive accuracy. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software from SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA, was used for all calculations. Results: A total of 1,282 consecutive patients with PMF (median age 65 years, range 19-92; 63% males) were used to identify 26 (2%) patients (median age 51 years, range 28-71; 38% males) who survived their disease for at least 20 years (very long-lived patients) and 626 (49%) patients (median age 68 years, range 27-92; 66% males) who died within 5 years of their diagnosis. Clinically-derived information, including the clinical variables used in MIPSS70 and MIPSS70+ version 2.0, with the exception of fibrosis grade (information available in 60%), was available in 99% of the study population; cytogenetic information was available in 94%, driver mutational status in 71% and the full profile of high molecular risk (HMR) mutations, including ASXL1, SRSF2, U2AF1 Q157, EZH2, IDH1 and IDH2, in 42%. MIPSS70+ version 2.0 risk distribution for the entire study population (n=1,282) was 4% very low risk, 16% low risk, 19% intermediate risk, 40% high risk and 21% very high risk; the corresponding percentages for the 26 very long-lived patients were 14%, 29%, 14%, 43% and 0% and for the 626 short-term survivors were 0%, 4%, 10%, 47% and 39% (p<0.001). Cytogenetic, driver mutation and HMR mutation information was available in 100%, 58% and 27% of the 26 long-term survivors, respectively, and 98%, 63% and 39% of the 626 short-term survivors. Multivariable logistic regression analysis of 20-year survival identified the following seven variables as being favorable: age ≤70 years (p=0.002); female sex (p=0.03); hemoglobin level ≥10 g/dl for women and ≥11 g/dl for men (p=0.03), leukocyte count ≤25 x 109/l (p=0.009), platelet count ≥100 x 109/l (p=0.002), circulating blasts ≤1% (p=0.03) and absence of constitutional symptoms (p=0.04). The particular phenotypic profile exhibited a high degree of predictive accuracy with an estimated AUC of 0.90 (Figure 1a); karyotype and mutations did not retain significance in this particular analysis; in fact, 5 (71%) of the 7 long-term survivors who were informative harbored at least one HMR mutation. A similar analysis for 5-year mortality identified the following risk factors: high molecular risk mutations (p<0.001); unfavorable or very high risk karyotype (p<0.001); absence of type 1/like CALR mutations (p<0.001); age >70 years (p<0.001); constitutional symptoms (p<0.001); hemoglobin level <10 g/dl for women and <11 g/dl for men (p<0.001); leukocyte count >25 x 109/l (p=0.004); and circulating blasts >1% (p=0.001); predictive accuracy was estimated at AUC 0.87 (Figure 1b). Conclusions: The phenotypic profile of long-lived patients in PMF includes young age (≤70 years old), female sex, asymptomatic disease (i.e. no constitutional symptoms) and absence of moderate to severe anemia, thrombocytopenia or leukocytosis and ≤1% circulating blasts; each one of these parameters, with the exception of female sex, were present in ≥80% of long-term survivors. Karyotype and mutations were more relevant in predicting short-term mortality. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background : Cytogenetic abnormalities occur in approximately a third of patients with primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and 5-20% of those with essential thrombocythemia (ET) or polycythemia vera (PV). Abnormal karyotype in PV and specific cytogenetic abnormalities in PMF have been shown to adversely affect survival (Leukemia. 2018;32:1189; Br J Haematol. 2017 Jun 9. doi: 10.1111/bjh.14798). In the current retrospective study, we considered 650 Mayo Clinic patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), including ET, PV and PMF, with at least two documented bone marrow (BM) biopsies, in order to examine the incidence and pattern of changes in karyotype and their clinical correlates. Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA, based on documentation of at least two serial BM biopsies. Diagnoses were according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). BM biopsy #1 referred to the baseline karyotype at time of initial diagnosis/referral and BM biopsy #2 to the first repeat BM biopsy after diagnosis. In addition to documenting the presence or absence of changes in karyotype, a notation was made regarding disease phase, at the time of the repeat biopsy, in order to allow accurate interpretation of the data and evaluation of survival impact. Results: 650 patients with MPN, including 153 ET, 105 PV and 392 PMF, were included in the current study and had undergone at least two BM biopsies; 227 patients had three, 108 four, 48 five, 19 six, and 4 seven repeat BM biopsies during their clinical course. Cytogenetic clonal evolution in patients with normal karyotype at baseline : Baseline karyotype was normal in 466 (72%) patients, including 139 (91%) ET, 91 (87%) PV and 236 (60%) PMF. Clonal evolution, which constituted a change from "normal" to "abnormal" karyotype, was documented in 16 (12%) patients with ET, 22 (24%) with PV and 75 (33%) with PMF; the latter included favorable karyotype in 11% of the cases, unfavorable in 12% and very high risk (VHR) in 10%. 11 (69%) of the 16 documented cases of clonal evolution in ET, 10 (45%) of 22 in PV and 11 (15%) of 75 in PMF were accompanied by clinically evident progression to blast or fibrotic phase disease, at the time of the repeat BM biopsy. Cytogenetic clonal evolution in patients with abnormal karyotype at baseline : Baseline karyotype was abnormal in 187 (28%) patients, including 17 (9%) ET, 14 (13%) PV and 156 (40%) PMF. Additional changes in karyotype, during serial BM biopsies, were documented in 6 (35%) ET, 5 (36%) PV and 71 (46%) PMF patients. In PMF, the pattern of changes in karyotype included "favorable" to "favorable" in 7%; "favorable" to "unfavorable" in 13%; "favorable" to "VHR" in 5%; "unfavorable" to "unfavorable" in 13%; "unfavorable" to "VHR" in 3%; and "VHR" to "VHR" in 6%. All 11 (100%) patients with ET or PV who underwent clonal evolution displayed clinically overt disease transformation into leukemic or fibrotic phase disease, at the time of the repeat BM biopsy. Leukemic transformation at the time of the repeat BM biopsy was evident in 13 (18%) of the 71 PMF cases with clonal evolution. Survival impact of cytogenetic clonal evolution without change in disease phase : The survival impact of cytogenetic clonal evolution was examined under the following provisions: i) analysis was limited to events occurring at BM biopsy #2 with survival calculated from the date of BM biopsy #2; ii) patients with leukemic or fibrotic transformation at time of BM biopsy #2 were excluded from analysis; and iii) clonal evolution for the purposes of survival analysis constituted changes from "normal" to "abnormal", for ET and PV, while the type of changes were taken under consideration for PMF. Under these stipulations, clonal evolution appeared to affect survival in general, although statistical significance was apparent for only ET and PMF (Figures 1a, 1b and 1c). Conclusions: Cytogenetic clonal evolution in ET and PV is infrequent, in the absence of clinically overt disease transformation, and is more likely to occur in PMF. Such events, when documented in chronic phase disease, appeared to predict shortened survival in all three MPNs, which was most apparent in ET and with emergence of VHR or unfavorable abnormalities in PMF. These observations warrant prospective studies that account for indication bias. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background : Survival prediction in essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythemia vera (PV) is currently based on clinically-derived risk variables, including age, thrombosis history and leukocyte count (Blood. 2012;120:1197; Leukemia. 2013;27:1874). We have previously reported on the prognostic contribution of mutations, in both ET and PV (Blood Adv. 2016;1:21). The current study examines the possibility of integrating genetic and clinical information for predicting overall (OS), leukemia-free (LFS) and myelofibrosis-free (MFFS) survival in ET and PV. Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA and the University of Florence, Florence, Italy, based on availability of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived mutation information. Diagnoses were according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). NGS-detected coding region variants were filtered through the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) database and annotated by the Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer (COSMIC) database as mutants or variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Conventional statistics was employed for outcome analysis and assessment of model performance. Results: 906 molecularly-annotated patients (416 from Mayo and 490 from Florence), including 502 ET and 404 PV cases, were included in the current study. The Mayo/Florence cohorts included 270/232 ET (median age 57/54 years, 60%/59% females) and 146/258 PV (median age 63/58 years, 52%/44% females) patients; median follow-up was 9.9/12.9 years for ET and 10.7/12.4 years for PV; during this time 39%/38% deaths and 4.4%/6.5% leukemic and 16%/33% fibrotic progressions were documented for ET, with the corresponding figures for PV being 50%/26%, 4.8%/3% and 13%/36%. Cytogenetic information was available in 84%/63% ET and 80%/49% PV cases in the Mayo/Florence cohorts. In both Mayo and Florence cohorts, multivariable analysis of mutations identified primarily spliceosome mutations to adversely affect OS (SF3B1 and SRSF2 in ET and SRSF2 in PV) and MFFS (U2AF1 and SF3B1 in ET); in addition, TP53 mutations was associated with leukemic transformation in ET, in both patient cohorts. Other mutations with independently significant contribution, validated in one but not both cohorts, included EZH2 (OS and LFS in ET), IDH2 (OS and LFS in PV) and RUNX1 (LFS in PV and ET). For the purposes of the current study, mutations considered "adverse" for subsequent analysis and development of prognostic models required validation in both Mayo and Florence cohorts. Age-adjusted, all-inclusive multivariable analysis of genetic and clinical variables identified the following as independent risk factors for OS, in both Mayo and Florence cohorts: ET ─ SRSF2/SF3B1 mutations, age >60 years and male sex; PV ─ SRSF2 mutations, age >67 years and leukocyte count ≥11 x 109/l. In addition, multivariable analysis flagged leukocytosis in ET (Florence cohort only) and abnormal karyotype in PV (Mayo cohort only) as additional factors. Development of mutation-enhanced international prognostic systems for ET and PV In order to optimize the number of informative cases, the two Mayo and Florence databases were subsequently combined and subjected to multivariable analysis that confirmed the independent survival effect, in ET, of SRSF2/SF3B1 mutations (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.8-4.3), age >60 years (HR 6.7, 95% CI 4.8-9.4) and male sex (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4) and, in PV, of SRSF2 mutations (HR 7.0, 95% CI 2.3-17.4), age >60 years (HR 5.7, 95% CI 3.3-10.1), and leukocyte count ≥11 x 109/l (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-3.9); the combined analysis also flagged independent prognostic contribution from abnormal karyotype in PV (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-3.6). HR-weighted risk point allocation resulted in new, mutation-enhanced 4-tiered risk models for ET (MIPSS-ET based on mutations, age and sex; figure 1a) and PV (MIPSS-PV based on mutations, karyotype, leukocyte count and age; figure 1b). Both models displayed high predictive accuracy and were internally validated by bootstrapping. The combined analysis also confirmed the impact of TP53 mutations on LFS (figure 1c) and U2AF1/SF3B1 mutations on MFFS (figure 1d), in ET. Conclusions: Spliceosome mutation information enhances survival prediction in ET and PV and identifies those at risk for fibrotic progression. TP53 mutations predict leukemic transformation in ET. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: Young patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), including essential thrombocythemia (ET), polycythemia vera (PV) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF), constitute a distinct, steadily growing subpopulation (Eur J Haematol. 2017;98:85). Most available data, including current prognostic models, are excerpted from older populations and may not accurately mirror the unique phenotypic and prognostic patterns seen in younger patients. The objective of the current study was to comprehensively assess the phenotypic features and long-term outcomes in MPN patients age ≤ 40 years. Methods: The study population was recruited from a master database of MPN patients seen at our institution between 1967 and 2017. Diagnoses were in accordance with 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Data was abstracted from the time of referral, which coincided in the majority with the time/within one year of diagnosis. Additional molecular data was obtained based on availability of next-generation sequencing (NGS) information. Conventional statistics was utilized for group comparisons and calculation of survival data. Results: The study population was recruited from a total of 3,023 MPN patients: 665 PV, 1076 ET, and 1282 PMF. Of these, 361 (12%) were ≤ 40 years of age at the time of initial diagnosis; the corresponding incidences were 12% in PV (n=79), 20% in ET (n=219) and 5% in PMF (n= 63). Young PV patients (n=79): Median age (range) was 32 years (18-40) and males constituted 54% (Table 1). Over a median follow-up of 11.3 years, fibrotic transformation rates were 22% vs 25% and 10% in those 41-60 and >60 years of age, respectively (P<0.001). Leukemic conversion rates were balanced across age categories (4% vs 5% vs 3% for successively older cohorts) (P=0.4). Interestingly, young patients had lower rates of arterial (P<0.001) and higher of venous thrombosis (P=0.01) prior to/at diagnosis vs older cohorts while events post-diagnosis were comparable across age groups (P=0.6). Young ET patients (n=219): Median age (range) was 32 years (18-40) with a minority (31%) constituted of males. During a median follow-up of 13 years, fibrotic progressions rates were 16% vs 16% and 9% in those aged 41-60 and >60 years, respectively (P<0.001). The leukemic conversion rate (2%) was analogous to that of older cohorts (5% and 3%, respectively) (P=0.1). Young patients also experienced significantly fewer arterial thrombotic events prior to/at diagnosis (6% vs 14% and 18%) and after diagnosis (8% vs 16% and 22%) compared to older cohorts (P<0.0001). Young PMF patients (n=63): Median age (range) was 37 years (19-40) with a preponderance of males (59%). High risk karyotype was not seen in young patients vs in 5% and 8% of those 41-60 and > 60 years of age, respectively (P=0.004). During median follow-up of 7.1 years, leukemic conversions were recorded in 10% of young patients vs 10% and 9% of respectively older cohorts (P=0.9). Young subjects also experienced fewer arterial thrombotic events prior to/at diagnosis (2% vs 6% and 13%) and lower rates of venous thrombosis after diagnosis (2% vs 10% and 4%) compared to cohorts 41-60 and > 60 years of age, respectively (P<0.0001). NGS data disclosed significant clustering of high risk molecular mutations with successively older subgroups (≤ 40 vs 41-60 vs > 60 years); ASXL1: 19 vs 40 vs 45% (P=0.005), SRSF2: 6 vs 8 vs 18% (P=0.0004), and U2AF1: 3 vs 11 vs 19% (P=0.004) (Table 1). Survival data Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by age bracket (≤ 40 vs 41-60 vs > 60 years) disclosed median OS in successively older age groups to be 37, 22, and 10 years for PV (Figure 1A), 35, 22, and 11 years for ET (1B), and 20, 8, and 3 years for PMF (1C); exposing significantly longer median survival estimates in younger patients, systematically across all disease subtypes (P<0.001). When appraised as a function of MPN subtype, survival data confirmed the significantly reduced OS in PMF relative to PV and ET (P<0.001), though PMF patients aged ≤ 40 years were still projected to have a reasonably favorable median life expectancy of 20 years (Figure 2). Conclusions: Young MPN patients comprise a unique disease subset defined by an attenuated-risk cytogenetic and mutational backdrop compared to their older counterparts. Caution must be exercised in counseling and managing this population as historical 'one-size-fits all' data fails to reflect the true natural history and disease biology in the young. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: Subnormal serum erythropoietin (EPO) level is widely accepted as a minor diagnostic criterion for polycythemia vera (PV) and has retained its value in the revised 2016 World Health Organization (WHO) classification scheme of myeloid neoplasms (Blood. 2016;127:2391). While over 80% of PV patients exhibit subnormal EPO values (Haematologica. 2004;89:1194), very little is known about the incidence, phenotypic connotation, or prognostic significance of serum EPO levels in essential thrombocythemia (ET). Methods: Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnosis of ET was in strict accordance with the 2016 WHO criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391) and only patients with EPO measurements at diagnosis or during their chronic phase were considered under the following provisions: i) no evidence of myelofibrotic or leukemic transformation; ii) no treatment with cytoreductive agents at the time of sample collection (and for those with EPO sampling at diagnosis, no prior exposure to cytoreductive therapy); iii) no hemoglobin levels below sex-adjusted values for anemia; and iv) systematic exclusion of all cases of masked PV. Serum erythropoietin levels were measured using Mayo-verified standard immune-enzymatic assay consistent with CLIA requirements with reference range between 4-21 mIU/mL. Standard statistical methods and time-to-event curves prepared using the Kaplan-Meier method were used to compare EPO-stratified groups. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software package was used for all analyses (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results: Among 177 informative ET patients (median age 51 years, range 18-88; 71% females), median serum EPO concentrations were 5.2 mIU/mL (range <1-25) overall and 2.6 mIU/mL (range <1-3.9) and 7.2 mIU/mL (range 4-25) in those with subnormal versus normal/above normal EPO levels, respectively (p<0.0001). The majority of EPO measurements were at the time or within one year of diagnosis (67%), with the remainder obtained at referral or during the chronic clinical course. Risk stratification disclosed low, intermediate, and high risk status in 45%, 33% and 23% of patients, respectively, with no appreciable differences between EPO-stratified subsets. Subnormal serum EPO levels clustered clinically with JAK2 mutations (95% vs 60%; p<0.0001), higher hemoglobin (median 14.7 vs 13.8 g/dl, range: 12.1-17.8 vs 12-17.1; p<0.0001) and leukocyte counts (median 9.7 vs 8.2 x 109/l, range: 4-28.1 vs 3.9-22; p=0.0001), and arterial thrombosis after diagnosis (13% vs 5%; p=0.04). In addition, all three documented conversions to PV (p=0.01) and none of the six fibrotic progressions (p=0.02) occurred in patients with subnormal serum EPO levels (Table 1). While serum EPO level had no bearing on overall survival data (p=0.41) (Figure 1A), subnormal circulating EPO concentrations were significantly associated with superior myelofibrosis-free survival (p=0.02) (Figure 1B) but conversely, inferior polycythemia-free survival (p=0.03) (Figure 1C). Conclusions: We conclude that subnormal serum EPO levels are relatively frequent in ET, cluster with disease features that are reminiscent of polycythemia vera, and might be associated with a lower risk of fibrotic progression. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: We have long introduced the concept of host genetic variations in the phenotypic diversity of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) (Blood 2008;111:2785). Previous studies have established an association between JAK2 mutations in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and the germline GGCC (46/1) haplotype, which constitutes a string of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near the JAK2 gene that are inherited together on chromosome 9p (reviewed recently;Int J Mol Sci. 2018; 19: 1152). In 2010, we reported an association between shortened survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and nullizygosity for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype (Leukemia 2010; 24:105), although our findings were not confirmed in another study (Leukemia 2010; 24:1533). Others have reported an association with splanchnic vein thrombosis, that was not accounted for by JAK2 mutations (Ann Hematol 2014;93:1845). In the current study, we have increased the number of informative cases to 414 (from 130 reported in 2010), in order to revisit with the phenotypic and prognostic relevance of the JAK2 46/1 haplotype in PMF. Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses PMF and its leukemic transformation were confirmed by both clinical and bone marrow examinations, in line with the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Screening for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype included rs12343867 SNP genotyping, as previously detailed (Leukemia 2010; 24:105), and using a commercially available TaqMan SNP genotyping assay (Applied Biosystems Inc., Foster City, CA, USA). Statistical analyses considered clinical and laboratory data collected at the time of initial PMF diagnosis or Mayo Clinic referral point. Conventional statistics was used for confirming phenotypic associations and calculation of overall (OS) and leukemia-free (LFS) survival. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software from SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA, was used for all calculations. Results: 414 patients with PMF (median age 63 years; 63% males) were included in the current study; among 324 evaluable cases, MIPSS70+ version 2.0 risk distribution was 18% very high risk, 41% high risk, 19% intermediate risk, 18% low risk and 4% very low risk. Driver mutation distribution was 63% JAK2, 17% type 1-like CALR, 3% type 2-like CALR, 7% MPL and 10% triple-negative. JAK2 46/1 haplotype was documented in 69% of the study patients, including 25% in homozygous and 44% in heterozygous state. Driver mutation frequency in patients homozygous/heterozygous/nullizygous for the 46/1 haplotype was 78%/60%/56% JAK2, 10%/20%/18% type 1-like CALR, 3%/2%/5% type 2-like CALR, 4%/8%/7% MPL and 6%/10%/14% triple-negative (p=0.02). The three 46/1 haplotype groups were phenotypically mostly similar, with the exception of platelet count (p=0.02) and leukocyte count (p=0.003), which were both higher with homozygous 46/1 haplotype. In univariate analysis, nullizygosity for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype was associated with inferior overall survival (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.9; figure 1a); this survival effect was most pronounced in JAK2 mutated cases (figure 1b; p<0.001), as opposed to CALR/MPL mutated cases (figure 1c; p=0.48) or triple-negative cases (figure 1d; p=0.27). Multivariable analysis that included age and other genetic risk factors, including karyotype, driver mutational status and presence of high molecular risk mutations, such as ASXL1 and SRSF2, confirmed the independent prognostic contribution of nullizygosity for the 46/1 haplotype (p=0.02; HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8). Nullizygosity for 46/1 also remained significant in the context of the recently unveiled genetics-based prognostic model, GIPSS (genetically-inspired prognostic scoring system) (p=0.04) (Leukemia.2018 doi: 10.1038/s41375-018-0107-z), but not in the context of MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (karyotype and mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring system for transplant-age patients) (p=0.4). (JClinOncol.2018 doi: 10.1200/JCO.2018.78.9867). Leukemia-free survival was not affected by the 46/1 haplotype (p=0.6). Conclusions: The current study confirms the association of nullizygosity for the JAK2 GGCC (46/1) haplotype with inferior survival in PMF, primarily in JAK2-mutated cases; the observed survival effect was independent of currently acknowledged genetic risk factors, including karyotype and high molecular risk mutations. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: Current prognostic models in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) target overall survival (OS) and utilize MIPSS70 (mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring system for transplant-age patients), MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (karyotype-enhanced MIPSS70) and GIPSS (genetically-inspired prognostic scoring system, which is based on mutations and karyotype) (JCO 2018;36:310; JCO doi: 10.1200/JCO.2018.78.9867; Leukemia. 2018;doi:10.1038/s41375-018-0107). In the current study, we used logistic regression statistics to identify risk factors for leukemic transformation (LT) within 5 years of diagnosis/referral (i.e. early events) and also performed Cox regression analysis of overall leukemia-free survival (LFS). Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses of LT and chronic phase PMF were confirmed by both clinical and bone marrow examinations, in line with the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391); specifically, LT required presence of ≥20% blasts in the peripheral blood (PB) or bone marrow (BM) (Blood 2016;127:2391). Statistical analyses considered clinical and laboratory data collected at the time of initial PMF diagnosis or Mayo Clinic referral point. Logistic regression statistics was used to identify predictors of LT at 5 years from initial diagnosis/referral; in the particular method, patients with documented LT within 5 years were "uncensored" while those followed up for at least 5 years, without developing LT, were "censored"; the analysis excluded patients without LT and not followed for at least 5 years. In addition, Cox regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for overall LFS. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software from SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA, was used for all calculations. Results: 1,306 patients with PMF (median age 65 years; 63% males) were included in the current study; MIPSS70+ version 2.0 risk distribution was 20% very high risk, 41% high risk, 19% intermediate risk, 16% low risk and 4% very low risk. 149 (11%) patients were documented to experience LT, and compared to the remaining patients (n=1157), they were more likely to be males (p=0.02) and mutated for ASXL1 (p=0.01), SRSF2 (0.001) and IDH1 (0.02) and present with higher risk MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (p=0.02). Multivariable logistic regression identified the following as predictors of LT in the first 5 years of disease: IDH1 mutation (odds ratio; OR 78.4), very high risk (VHR) karyotype (OR 57.6), ASXL1 mutation (OR 15.1), age >70 years (OR 13.3), SRSF2 mutation (OR 8.5), male sex (OR 6.9), PB blasts ≥3% (OR 5.4), presence of moderate or severe anemia, adjusted for sex (OR 3.6) and constitutional symptoms (OR 3.1). On Cox regression analysis, the following were associated with inferior LFS: IDH1 mutation (HR 4.3), PB blasts ≥3% (HR 3.3), SRSF2 mutation (HR 3.0), age >70 years (HR 2.1), ASXL1 mutation (HR 2.0) and presence of moderate or severe anemia, adjusted for sex (HR 1.9). Subsequently, HR-based risk point allocation resulted in highly discriminating LT predictive model with HR (95% CI) of 39.4 (10.8-114) for high risk and 4.1 (2.4-7.3) for intermediate risk (Figure 1). Conclusions: The current study identifies IDH1 mutation as a main predictor of LT in PMF. Our study also implicates SRSF2 and ASXL1 mutations and VHR karyotype as other genetic markers of early LT. Other independent contributors of early LT and inferior LFS, overall, included PB blasts ≥3%, moderate to severe anemia and older age. We provide LT prediction model, based on these variables, with leukemia risk ranging from 8% to 57%. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background : Thrombosis is a characteristic feature in essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythemia vera (PV). Previous studies had focused on thrombotic events occurring after diagnosis and did not always distinguish between arterial and venous thrombosis. Arterial thrombosis in ET has been associated with age >60 years, JAK2 mutations, leukocyte count >11 x 109/l, history of thrombosis and cardiovascular risk factors, and venous thrombosis with male sex (Blood 2011;117:5857). In the current two-enter study, we looked for associations between both driver and other mutations, with first incidences of arterial and venous thrombosis in ET and PV, analyzed together and separately. Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA and the University of Florence, Florence, Italy, based on availability of next-generation sequencing-derived mutation information. Diagnoses were according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Conventional statistics was employed to examine significance of associations, with separate analysis of arterial vs venous thrombosis, occurring at any time before or after formal diagnosis of ET or PV. For the purposes of the current study, only first events were considered. Results: 906 molecularly-annotated patients (416 from Mayo and 490 from Florence), including 502 ET and 404 PV cases, were included in the current study. The Mayo/Florence cohorts included 270/232 ET (median age 57/54 years, 60%/59% females) and 146/258 PV (median age 63/58 years, 52%/44% females) patients; median follow-up was 9.9/12.9 years for ET and 10.7/12.4 years for PV. Driver mutation distribution in ET was 55% JAK2, 27% CALR, 5% MPL and 13% triple-negative. Most frequent mutations, other than JAK2/CALR/MPL, were TET2 (14%; 11% in ET and 18% in PV) and ASXL1 (13%; 13% in ET and 13% in PV). 301 (33%) patients experienced first time thrombosis, before or after diagnosis, including 152 (30%) in ET and 149 (37%) in PV (p=0.03); arterial events occurred in 174 (19%) patients, including 96 (19%) in ET and 78 (19%) in PV (p=0.9); venous events occurred in 177 (20%) patients, including 82 (16%) in ET and 95 (24%) in PV (p=0.007). The number of vascular events after diagnosis was 174 (19%) for arterial and 154 (17%) for venous thrombosis, with no significant difference between ET and PV. Associations with arterial thrombosis: In multivariable logistic regression analysis that included both ET and PV (n=906), age >60 years (23% vs 16%; OR, 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.2) and absence of ASXL1 and RUNX1 mutations (21% vs 9%; OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.8) were associated with arterial thrombosis; these associations remained significant (or near significant) when ET and PV were analyzed separately; in addition, JAK2 mutations in ET displayed borderline significance (p=0.05). Overall incidence of arterial events in ET was estimated at 27% in the presence of all three risk factors (i.e. older age, presence of JAK2 mutations and absence of ASXL1/RUNX1 mutations), 21% with two risk factors, 13% with one risk factor and 9% in the absence of all three risk factors (p=0.01). Associations with venous thrombosis: In multivariable analysis, including both ET and PV (n=906), JAK2 mutations (p<0.001), higher leukocyte count (p=0.03) and younger age (p=0.04) were identified as being significant. Analysis of ET patients only (n=502) identified JAK2 mutations (p<0.001; OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-4.1), absence of SRSF2 mutations (p=0.03) and younger age (p=0.04) as independent risk factors and in PV patients (n=404), higher leukocyte count (p=0.06). Prognostic interaction between JAK2 mutations and age: In ET, the overall frequency of venous events was 27% for young patients with JAK2 mutations vs 13% for older JAK2 mutated cases vs 10% for JAK2 unmutated young patients vs 13% for JAK2 unmutated older patients (p<0.001). The corresponding percentages for arterial events were 20%, 24%, 14% and 19%, respectively (p=0.1). Conclusions: JAK2 mutations contribute to the risk of both venous (younger patients) and arterial (young and older patients) thrombosis, in an age-dependent manner; the association with venous thrombosis might explain the higher incidence of venous thrombosis in PV, compared to ET. Additional studies are required to confirm the observed lower risk of thrombosis in patients with ASXL1, RUNX1 and SRSF2 mutations and provide insight into the underlying biological explanation. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: While several population-based studies have reported on adverse outcomes and life expectancy in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) (JCO. 2015;33:2288; AJH. 1999;61:10; Leukemia. 2013;27:1874; JCO. 2012;30:2995), large-scale studies reporting mature data have been rare and important questions remain unanswered. The current study documents the Mayo Clinic (MC) decades-long experience with over 3,000 consecutive MPN patients including polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF) with the majority of patients followed until death. Herein, we provide mature, and importantly, risk-stratified survival data and disease complication estimates. Methods: Study patients were recruited from MC, Rochester, MN, USA between 10/27/1967 and 12/29/2017. All MPN diagnoses and documentation of fibrotic/leukemic transformations were in accordance with the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Clinical and laboratory data were abstracted from medical records. Risk-stratification used conventional risk models considering age, leukocytes, and venous thrombosis for PV (Leukemia. 2013;27:1874), international prognostic score for ET (Blood. 2012;120:1197), and dynamic international prognostic scoring system for PMF (Blood. 2010;115:1703). Statistical analyses were based on parameters obtained at the time of referral to MC which, in the majority of cases, coincided with or was within 1 year of diagnosis. All patients were followed from diagnosis until death or date of last follow-up/contact. Recipients of allogeneic stem cell transplants were censored at the time of transplant. Standard statistical methods and time-to-event curves prepared using the Kaplan-Meier method were used to compare MPN subgroups. Survival data for low-risk ET/PV were compared with age- and sex-matched controls from Olmstead County, MN, USA. JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) was used for all analyses. Results: 3,023 consecutive patients (median age 62 years, range 18-96; 51% males) were considered, including 89% diagnosed within the year: 665 PV, 1076 ET and 1282 PMF. Conventional risk stratification in 2925 evaluable patients revealed low, intermediate, and high-risk status in 26%, 29%, and 45% of PV and 30%, 42%, and 28% of ET patients, respectively, while PMF cases were attributed low (14%), intermediate-1 (38%) -2 (40%) and high (8%) risk (Table 1). After a median follow-up of 8.2 years for PV (range 0-39), 9.9 for ET (range 0-47), and 3.2 for PMF (range 0-31), 1631 (54%) deaths, 183 (6%) leukemic transformations, 244 (14%) fibrotic progressions, and 516 (17%) thrombotic events were recorded (Table 1). Median overall survival (OS) was 18 years for ET, 15 for PV and 4.4 for PMF (p<0.05 for all inter-group comparisons) (Figure 1A). Leukemia-free survival was similar for ET and PV (p=0.22) and significantly worse for PMF (p<0.001) (Figure 1B). PV, compared to ET, was associated with higher risk of fibrotic progression (p<0.001) (Figure 1C). Thrombosis risk after diagnosis was highest in PV and lowest in PMF (p=0.002 for PV vs ET; 0.56 for ET vs PMF; and 0.001 for PV vs PMF) (Figure 1D). Following risk stratification, median OS in low-risk ET (28 years) and low-risk PV (27 years) were superimposed (p=0.89) (Figure 2). Similarly, intermediate or high-risk PV and ET patients had comparable OS within each risk strata (p=0.23 and 0.11, respectively). Low-risk PMF survival was analogous to that of intermediate-risk PV (p=0.06). All other risk-stratified categories disclosed significantly different inter- and intra-group survival patterns (p<0.001) (Figure 2). Despite their categorization as favorable-risk disease, both low-risk ET and low-risk PV displayed excess mortality relative to age- and sex-matched controls with median survival of 26.7 and 28.1 years respectively, compared to the expected 37.5 and 39.2 years (p<0.001) (Figure 3). Conclusions: The current study provides large-scale and uniquely mature survival and outcomes data in MPN and highlights MPN subgroup risk categorization as cardinal in appraising disease natural history. Interestingly, OS was only marginally better in ET, compared to PV, while the latter clearly displayed a higher risk of thrombosis and fibrotic progression. Moreover, data disclosed shortened life expectancy relative to matched controls even in MPN with favorable risk attribution. Disclosures Busque: BMS: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Paladin: Consultancy.

Abstract Background The Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS)-plus currently provides the most comprehensive prognostic model for primary myelofibrosis (PMF) (JCO 2011;29:392). DIPSS-pluse uses eight independent predictors of inferior survival: age >65 years, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, leukocyte count >25 x 109/L, circulating blasts ³1%, constitutional symptoms, unfavorable karyotype, red cell transfusion need and platelet count <100 x 109/L. More recently, type 1/type 1-like CALR driver mutational status and ASXL1 andSRSF2 mutations were identified as additional DIPSS-plus-independent risk factors for survival in PMF (JAMAOncol. 2015;1:97). Based on our earlier preliminary observation (Leuk Res. 2007;31:1503), we conducted the current study to fully examine the additional prognostic relevance of monocytosis (absolute monocyte count ≥1 x 10(9)/L) in PMF. Methods Study patients fulfilled the 2016 WHO criteria for the diagnosis of PMF, including both pre-PMF and overt PMF (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Additional selection criteria included the availability of absolute monocyte count (AMC) and percentage at time of referral. Targeted next generation sequencing was used to screen for prognostically-relevant mutations (Blood 2015 126:354). Statistical analyses considered clinical and laboratory parameters obtained at time of initial referral to the Mayo Clinic. Results Patient characteristics: The study population included 454 patients (median age 64 years; 62% males); 293 (64%) patients harbored JAK2 mutations, 74 (16%) type 1/like CALR, 16 (3%) type 2/like CALR, 24 (5%) MPL and 47 (10%) were "triple-negative". DIPSS-plus risk distribution was 29% high, 38% intermediate-2, 17% intermediate-1 and 15% low; 27% displayed red cell transfusion-dependency, 29% constitutional symptoms, 70% palpable splenomegaly and 36% abnormal karyotype, including 13% with unfavorable karyotype. 301 patients were screened for ASXL1 mutations with 39% mutated, 297 for SRSF2 mutations with 15% mutated, 286 for U2AF1 with 18% mutated, 253 for SF3B1 with 6% mutated, 229 for EZH2 with 5% mutated and 110 for IDH1/2 with 7% mutated. Clinical, cytogenetic and molecular comparisons between PMF patients with and without monocytosis: Among all study patients, 376 (83%) displayed AMC <1 x 10(9)/L; the remaining had either moderate (AMC between 1 and 3 x 10(9)/L; n=65) or marked (AMC >3 x 10(9)/L; n=13) monocytosis. Comparison of these three groups revealed that monocytosis was significantly associated with older age (p=0.0001), higher leukocyte count (p<0.0001), lower platelet count (p=0.01), higher circulating blast percentage (p=0.0002) and higher DIPSS-plus risk distribution (p=0.01). There were no significant differences in the distribution of driver mutations, ASXL1, SRSF2, U2AF, SF3B1, EZH2 or IDH1/2 mutations or incidence of unfavorable karyotype. Survival analysis: After a median follow up of 3.2 years, 265 (58%) deaths and 38 (8%) leukemic transformations were documented. In univariate analysis, all 8 variables included in DIPSS-plus were significantly associated with shortened survival (p<0.001 in all instances). Significant risk factors in univariate analysis also included AMC >3 x 10(9)/L (p<0.0001; HR 5.6, 95% CI 3.1-10.0), AMC 1 to 3 x 10(9)/L (p<0.0001; HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.9), absence of CALR type 1/type 1-like (p<0.0001) and presence of ASXL1 (p<0.0001) or SRSF2 (p<0.0001) mutations. The significant difference in survival between the three AMC categories (i.e. <1, 1-3 and >3 x 10(9)L) was independent of each one of the eight DIPSS-plus variables, DIPSS-plus, driver mutational status, ASXL1 and SRSF2 mutations (p<0.0001 in all instances). The survival difference between patients with and without monocytosis was evident in both high/intermediate-2 and low/intermediate-1 DIPSS-plus risk groups (Figure). Patients with monocytosis were also more likely to undergo leukemic transformation (HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4-6.5) and this effect was also independent of karyotype, driver mutational status, ASXL1 or SRSF2 mutations. Conclusion The current study identifies monocytosis as a powerful risk factor for both overall and leukemia-free survival in PMF and the effect was independent of currently established prognostic models and genetic risk factors. It was particularly noteworthy to document similar distribution of driver mutations among the three monocyte categories. Figure Figure. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.