Szuber, Natasha

Abstract JAK2 unmutated/wild-type erythrocytosis is a prevalent condition encompassing a wide spectrum of hereditary and acquired entities. It is conventionally defined by the same hemoglobin/hematocrit thresholds as for polycythemia vera. Incidence has been reported to be between 0.13% and 4.1%. The most clinically relevant step in the workup of erythrocytosis is the exclusion of polycythemia vera through JAK2 mutation screening. Consideration of relative polycythemia, normal outliers, and the influence of erythropoietic drugs and comorbidities is also imperative. Distinguishing long-standing from newly acquired erythrocytosis further streamlines the diagnostic process. Hereditary erythrocytosis (HE) is lifelong and typically associated with a positive family history. Subnormal serum erythropoietin (EPO) suggests an EPO receptor mutation. Otherwise, oxygen tension at 50% hemoglobin saturation (p50) discerns between high oxygen-affinity hemoglobin variants, 3-bisphosphoglycerate deficiency, methemoglobinemia, and PIEZO1 mutations (low p50) and germline oxygen-sensing pathway/other rare mutations (normal p50). Acquired erythrocytosis results from hypoxia-driven factors (eg, cardiopulmonary, altitude, renal artery stenosis) and other mechanisms of EPO overproduction (eg, EPO-secreting tumors) or hypersensitivity, as well as EPO-independent mechanisms. Drugs (eg, sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors, testosterone) are also common causes. Idiopathic erythrocytosis is a diagnosis of exclusion, increasingly attributed to underlying genetic mutations/polymorphisms. There are currently no evidence-based treatment guidelines. Low-dose aspirin and/or phlebotomy (with frequency determined by symptom relief) might be considered on an individualized basis in the presence of hyperviscosity symptoms, cardiovascular comorbidities, and/or a history of thrombosis. Aggressive control of cardiovascular risk factors is recommended in all. A graphic abstract representation is provided in Figure 1.

Abstract Introduction: CSF3R mutations (CSF3RMUT), most commonly T618I, represent the defining genomic alteration in chronic neutrophilic leukemia (CNL), present in ~80% of cases. Despite emerging real-world data, information on treatment outcomes and prognostic factors remains limited due to rarity of the disease. In this two-center retrospective study, we examined clinical and molecular predictors of treatment response, overall survival (OS), and blast transformation (BT) and outcome following allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT). Methods: The study was approved by the institutional review boards of the Mayo Clinic (USA) and the University of Montreal (Canada). Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify patients with CSF3R mutated CNL at both institutions and extract relevant data. Statistical analyses were conducted using JMP Pro 17.0.0 software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results: Forty-four patients (68% male, median age 68 years [range: 26-93]) were included. At diagnosis, 20 (56%) were asymptomatic, 13 (36%) presented with constitutional/non-specific symptoms, and 20 (50%) had antecedent leukocytosis at a median of 13 months(mo) prior. Splenomegaly (palpable or radiological) was observed in 28 (67%) patients, hepatomegaly in 7 (17%) and lymphadenopathy in 4 (9.8%). Median white blood cell count (WBC) was 52×10⁹/L (range: 17-390). CSF3RMUT/variants included 39 (89%) with T618I (7 of the 39 had additional CSF3RMUT), 2 (5%) with M696T, and 1 (2%) each for I598I, Q739* and T640N. Frequent co-mutations included ASXL1 in 25 (63%) patients, SETBP1 in 14 (36%), and SRSF2 in 8 (31%), with overlapping occurrence; 10 (38%) patients had ≥2 of these 3 mutations. Ten patients (median WBC 29 x10⁹/L [range: 19–58]), were initially observed without treatment for a median of 8.6 mo; 2 remained on observation alone at 46 and 77 mo. Hydroxyurea (HU) alone or in combinations excluding ruxolitinib (Ruxo) was the most common first-line treatment (68%). Second-line therapies included Ruxo (39%), HU (25%), and hypomethylating agents (14%). WBC response (≥50% reduction from baseline) was 78% with HU vs. 60% with Ruxo (p=0.2). WBC response to HU was lower with abnormal karyotype (40% vs. 94%; p=0.02). WBC response to Ruxo was lower with SETBP1MUT (0% vs. 72%; p=0.05) and with male sex (40% vs. 100%; p=0.04). Seven patients underwent ASCT, including 2 after BT; four (57%) of the 7 remain alive, including 2 without evidence of disease (both 45 mo post-ASCT; one harbored ASXL1MUT) and the other 2 with active disease (both harbored ASXL1MUT). Three patients died from veno-occlusive disease (Day+34), CNS relapse with AML (at 105 mo post-ASCT), or unrelated causes (at 44 mo post-ASCT). Median OS was longer in transplanted patients (115 vs 23 mo; p=0.03). At a median follow-up of 44 mo for living patients, disease transformation occurred in 10 patients, including 7 with BT (6 with T618I, 1 T640N) and 3 with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (2 M696T, 1 T618I). BT rate at 2, 3, and 5 years was 15%, 31%, and 43%, respectively. Univariate analysis (UVA) identified male gender (p<0.01), >5% immature WBCs (p=0.02), platelets <160×10⁹/L (p=0.04), higher WBC (p=0.02), and ASXL1 or SETBP1 mutation (p<0.01) as risk factors for BT. On multivariable analysis (MVA), only the latter remained significant. Median OS was 26 mo (95% CI: 21-43) for the entire cohort; 24 mo for patients with T618I CSF3RMUT vs 53 mo with other CSF3RMUT, p=0.1. In UVA, age >60 years (HR 5.0, p=0.03), platelets <160×10⁹/L (HR 3.4, p=0.006), WBC >50×10⁹/L (HR 2.6, p=0.02), and ASXL1 or SETBP1 mutations (HR 4.2, p=0.01) were associated with shorter OS. In MVA, age >60 (HR 6, p=0.03), WBC >50×10⁹/L (HR 12, p<0.01), and the presence of ASXL1MUT or SETBP1MUT (HR 9.5, p=0.01) remained significant. Based on the HRs on MVA, one adverse point was allocated for age >60 years, and two adverse points each for WBC >50×10⁹/L and presence of ASXL1 or SETBP1 mutations. Patients were accordingly stratified into low (0-2 points), intermediate (3) and high (4-5) risk groups with corresponding median OS of “not reached”, 29 mo, and 16 mo (p<0.01). Causes of death included disease progression (82%), infection/bleeding (9%), and ASCT complications (9%). Conclusion: The current study highlights the prognostic relevance of “SETBP1 or ASXL1” mutation for both overall survival and risk of blast transformation. The study also signifies variable natural history and potential benefit from ASCT.

ABSTRACT Disease Overview JAK2 unmutated erythrocytosis encompasses a heterogeneous spectrum of hereditary and acquired entities. Diagnosis The foremost step is excluding polycythemia vera (PV) with JAK2 mutation screening (exons 12–15). Apparent polycythemia such as physiological outliers or relative polycythemia secondary to volume contraction should be considered. A historical overview of hematocrit (Hct) and hemoglobin (Hgb) levels helps distinguish longstanding from acquired erythrocytosis. Serum erythropoietin (Epo) levels are variably informative. Hereditary Erythrocytosis Hereditary erythrocytosis should be considered in longstanding erythrocytosis with a positive family history; causes include EPOR mutations (subnormal Epo), high oxygen affinity hemoglobin variants, PIEZO1 mutations, 2,3‐bisphosphoglycerate deficiency, methemoglobinemia, and germline oxygen sensing pathway mutations ( HIF2A ‐ PHD2 ‐ VHL ). Acquired Erythrocytosis Acquired erythrocytosis results from central (cardiopulmonary disease) or peripheral (renal artery stenosis) hypoxia, Epo‐producing tumors (renal cell carcinoma) or drugs (testosterone, sodium glucose co‐transporter‐2 inhibitors (SGLT2‐i), erythropoiesis stimulating agents). Idiopathic Erythrocytosis Idiopathic erythrocytosis is an ill‐defined terminology that presumes the existence of an increased Hgb/Hct level without an identifiable etiology. Management Cytoreductive therapy should be avoided. Phlebotomy should be considered for symptom control. Cardiovascular risk optimization and low‐dose aspirin are advised, while the role of HIF2A inhibitors remains unclear. Recent Advances EPO mutations which produce hyperactive, hepatic‐like Epo were identified. In cases with negative workup but high clinical suspicion, an expanded next generation sequencing panel for hereditary erythrocytosis is recommended. Among drugs, SGLT2‐i‐associated erythrocytosis is increasingly recognized. Future Directions Advances in molecular hematology are expected to improve the characterization of “idiopathic erythrocytosis”. Results from prospective studies are needed to elucidate the underlying pathology and guide management.

ABSTRACT Survival prediction models in essential thrombocythemia (ET) include the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSET) and the more recently introduced triple‐A (AAA) prognostic score. The latter enlists age and absolute neutrophil (ANC) and lymphocyte (ALC) counts as risk variables. In the current study, a Mayo Clinic discovery cohort of 658 patients with ET was used to identify AAA‐independent risk variables. Accordingly, multivariable analysis‐derived HRs (95% CI) were 15.7 (8.4–29.5) for age > 70 years (8 points); 4.2 (2.3–7.5) for age 50 to 70 years (2 points); 1.8 (1.2–2.5) for ANC ≥ 8 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.4 (1.03–1.9) for ALC < 1.7 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.8 (1.2–2.6) for absolute monocyte count (AMC) ≥ 0.5 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.8 (1.2–2.3) for male sex (1 point); 1.8 (1.3–2.4) for arterial hypertension (1 point); and 1.6 (1.2–2.3) for arterial thrombosis (1 point). HR‐weighted scoring enabled a 4‐tiered risk classification: ultra‐low (0–1 points; N = 94; median survival 42.7 years), low (2–4 points; N = 297; 23 years), intermediate (5 points; N = 66; 17.3 years), and high (6–14 points; N = 201; 10.8 years). Time‐dependent predictive performance at 20/25 years favored AAA + (AUC 0.92/0.91) vs. AAA (0.86/0.86) vs. IPSET (0.81/0.84). The AAA + risk model was subsequently validated by two external cohorts from Israel ( N = 5968) and Italy ( N = 682). In the cohort from Israel, disease‐specific mortality was assessed by comparing observed survival to an age‐ and sex‐matched reference population, which suggested near‐normal life expectancy in ultra‐low risk patients. The current study highlights host‐related factors as the primary determinants of longevity in ET and provides a composite risk score (AAA + ) that is based on complete blood count‐derived parameters and host‐related factors. Predictive performance of the new model was shown to be superior to that of IPSET and AAA.

ABSTRACTOverviewSex and gender have emerged as central modifiers of disease biology, phenotype, and clinical outcomes in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). This review will uniquely highlight issues affecting women with MPN and articulate their relevant determinants.Epidemiology and DiagnosisA higher overall prevalence of MPN has been established in women. The incidence of essential thrombocythemia (ET) predominates, while, conversely, polycythemia vera (PV) and myelofibrosis (MF) are seen in lower frequencies as compared to men. Diagnostic criteria are dictated by sex‐driven physiological variances in hemoglobin and hematocrit levels in PV, mandating separate diagnostic thresholds, respectively: > 16.0 g/dL and > 48% in women vs. > 16.5 and > 49% in men.Genetic Framework and PhenotypeWomen with MPN harbor fewer acquired somatic mutations and a lower frequency of high‐risk mutations than their male counterparts; lower JAK2V617F driver variant allele frequency and attenuated allele burden kinetics have also been reported. Women with MPN are younger at diagnosis than men and, contingent on subtype, display more indolent disease features. Importantly, validated symptom burden assessments consistently disclose higher scores in women vs. men.Thrombosis and OutcomesWomen with MPN have a unique thrombotic diathesis with respect to men, more frequently involving the splanchnic venous system in those ultimately diagnosed with PV. Outcomes data depict female sex as a variable associated with more favorable clinical trajectories, including lower rates of MF/leukemic transformation and secondary cancers, as well as improved overall survival rates vis‐à‐vis men.Life‐Cycle Windows, Pregnancy, and PostpartumPotential challenges at each significant life stage will be addressed: puberty, preconception and fertility, and perimenopause; these include issues surrounding oral contraceptives and hormone use. Prospective studies suggest overall favorable maternal and fetal outcomes with pregnancy in women with MPN. Full details on risks and reported outcomes will be discussed, as well as a risk‐adapted approach to management informed by obstetric and thrombosis history. Recommendations include aspirin 81 mg daily in all patients and cytoreduction with interferon‐α in those with antecedent thrombosis, as well as in low‐risk cases with higher‐risk features (e.g., poorly controlled hematocrit and recurrent fetal loss). Antepartum anticoagulation with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) is recommended in cases with previous venous thromboembolism.Conclusions and Future DirectionsThis review highlights female sex and gender as critical drivers of MPN incidence, presentation, and natural history. It further outlines the impact and management of MPN as related to unique female reproductive phases. A sex‐informed lens will be required in order to recalibrate current prognostic tools, a requisite to refining patient counselling and clinical decision‐making in line with precision medicine. Moreover, while several mechanisms underpinning sex‐defined discrepancies have been defined, these mandate further prospective study. Finally, sex and gender‐based differences must be weighted in clinical trials with systematized procedures to correct participation imbalances in favor of sex and gender equity.

Importance Essential thrombocythemia, a clonal myeloproliferative neoplasm with excessive platelet production, is associated with an increased risk of thrombosis and bleeding. The annual incidence rate of essential thrombocythemia in the US is 1.5/100 000 persons. Observations Patients with essential thrombocythemia have a persistent platelet count of 450 × 10 9 /L or greater. The differential diagnosis includes myeloproliferative neoplasms (polycythemia vera, primary myelofibrosis, chronic myeloid leukemia); inflammatory conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus; infections; splenectomy; iron deficiency anemia; and solid tumors such as lung cancer. Approximately 90% of individuals with essential thrombocythemia have genetic variants that upregulate the JAK-STAT (signal transducer and activator of transcription 5) signaling pathway, including Janus kinase 2 (JAK2, 64%), calreticulin (CALR , 23%), and myeloproliferative leukemia virus oncogene (MPL , 4%). The median age at diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia is 59 years. The median overall survival exceeds 35 years in those diagnosed at 40 years or younger. Patients with essential thrombocythemia are at increased risk of arterial thrombosis (11%), venous thrombosis (7%), and hemorrhagic complications (8%). Thrombosis risk is increased among those with a history of thrombosis, age older than 60 years, a JAK2 gene variant, and cardiovascular risk factors (eg, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemias, tobacco use). Use of aspirin (81-100 mg/d) is suggested for most patients with essential thrombocythemia to lower thrombosis risk. In a retrospective study of 300 affected patients with a low thrombosis risk (younger than 60 years with no prior thrombosis), those not taking aspirin (100 mg/d) had a risk of arterial thrombosis of 9.4/1000 patient-years and a venous thrombosis risk of 8.2/1000 patient years; cardiovascular risk factors were associated with a higher risk of arterial thrombi (incidence rate ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.02-6.1]), and a JAK2 gene variant was associated with increased risk of venous thrombosis (incidence rate ratio, 4.0 [95% CI, 1.2-12.9]). In a randomized trial of 114 patients at higher risk for thrombosis (age older than 60 years or a prior thrombotic event), cytoreduction with hydroxyurea significantly lowered the risk of arterial or venous thrombotic events compared with no cytoreductive therapy (3.6% vs 24%; P &amp;lt; .01). At a median of 8.5 years from diagnosis, approximately 10% of patients with essential thrombocythemia develop myelofibrosis and about 3% develop acute myeloid leukemia. Conclusions Essential thrombocythemia is a rare clonal myeloproliferative neoplasm associated with an increased risk of venous and arterial thrombosis, hemorrhage, myelofibrosis, and acute myeloid leukemia. Based on individual risk factors for thrombosis, persons with essential thrombocythemia may be treated with low-dose aspirin, either alone or in combination with a cytoreductive drug such as hydroxyurea.

Background Conventional thrombosis risk stratification in polycythemia vera (PV) considers age &gt; 60 years and thrombosis history for assignment to low (no risk factor) or high (at least 1 risk factor) risk category (J Clin Oncol.2011;29(6):761-70). The current study exclusively focused on low-risk PV with the following objectives: i) estimate the incidence of arterial and venous thrombosis; ii) examine the prognostic relevance of clinical and genetic risk factors for thrombosis; and iii) assess the impact of treatment on thrombosis risk. Methods Patients were retrospectively recruited from the Mayo Clinic, USA, and University of Florence, Italy, PV databases. Diagnosis was according to the International Consensus Classification criteria (Blood 2022;140:1200). Only first major arterial (AT) and unprovoked venous thrombosis (VT) were considered. Conventional statistical methods were applied (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results Mayo Clinic cohort A total of 346 patients with low-risk PV were considered: median age 49 years; males 54%; median hemoglobin 17.7 g/dl; median leukocyte count 10.9 x 109/L; leukocyte count &gt;11 x 109/L 49%; median platelet count 471 x 109/L; cardiovascular (CV) risk factors 47%; hypertension 29%; hyperlipidemia 20%; smoking history 12%; diabetes mellitus 5%. Most frequent mutations, other than JAK2, were ASXL1 (13%) and TET2 (13%). Median follow-up was 13.4 years (1-52) (4,636 patient-years) during which 25 (7%) AT and 20 (6%) VT were documented. The corresponding incidence rates were 5.4 and 4.3 per 1,000 patient-years. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, baseline hemoglobin &gt;17.5 g/dl in women or &gt;20 g/dl in men (15% vs 4%; OR 5.1; p&lt;0.01) and absence of leukocytosis &gt;11 x 109/L (10% vs 4%; OR 2.9; p=0.02) were associated with increased risk of AT; in addition, diabetes mellitus (19% vs 7%; OR 3.9; p=0.06), showed borderline significance; overall incidence of AT was 20% in the presence of ≥2 risk factors (n=61), 7% in the presence of one risk factor (n=177), and 1% in the absence of all three risk factors (n=108; p&lt;0.01). Multivariable analysis for arterial thrombosis-free survival (TFS) confirmed the predictive performance of these risk factors: hemoglobin thresholds (HR 4.4; p&lt;0.01); absence of leukocytosis &gt;11 x 109/L (HR 2.7; p=0.03); and diabetes (HR 2.8; p=0.09); 20-year cumulative incidence of AT was 32% in the presence of ≥2 risk factors and 7% otherwise (p&lt;0.01). In multivariable analysis, smoking history was found to be surprisingly protective against VT (0% vs. 7%; p=0.02) while female gender was associated with a borderline higher risk (8% vs 4%; OR 2.2; p=0.09); VT incidence rates were 9% in the presence of both risk factors (n=144), 4% with one risk factor (n=172), and 0% in the absence of both risk factors (n=40; p=0.02); 20-year cumulative incidence of VT was 10% in the presence of both risk factors and 3% otherwise (p=0.03). ASXL1 and TET2 mutations did not appear to modify the risk of either VT (p=0.59) or AT (p=0.66). Treatment at diagnosis included aspirin and cytoreductive therapy in 63% and 24% of patients, respectively. Aspirin but not cytoreductive therapy was associated with a lower incidence of AT (5% vs 11%; 2.3 vs 3.0 per 1,000 patient-years; p=0.04) and VT (4% vs 10%; 1.9 vs 2.8 per 1,000 patient-years; p=0.03). Thrombosis-free survival was not influenced by documented treatment at diagnosis or at the time of event (p&gt;0.1). University of Florence cohort A total of 284 low-risk PV patients were followed for a median of 9.1 years (1-38) with 19 (7%) AT and 24 (8%) VT events recorded; the corresponding incidence rates were 7.4 and 9.3 per 1,000 patient-years. In this Florence cohort, risk factors for AT were diabetes mellitus (HR 3.9), hyperlipidemia (HR 3.8) and advanced age, with only age remaining significant during multivariable analysis (p=0.03). Predictors of VT included hyperlipidemia (HR 4.2) and hypertension (HR 2.1). Treatment with aspirin or cytoreductive therapy did not impact thrombosis-free survival (p&gt;0.1). Conclusion The current study confirms the infrequent occurrence of AT and VT in low-risk PV but also exposes the challenges in identifying risk factors that are reproducible in different but otherwise well-characterized patient cohorts. Discrepancies were also apparent in retrospective comparison of treatment effects on thrombosis, which reinforces the need for prospective studies.

Background Survival risk models in essential thrombocythemia (ET) include the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSET; Blood 2012;120:1197) and the more recently described “triple-A” prognostic score that considers Age and absolute neutrophil (ANC) and lymphocyte (ALC) counts, as risk variables (AJH 2023;98:1829). Monocytosis, defined by absolute monocyte count (AMC) of ≥0.8 x 109/L, was recently reported to be associated with inferior survival in polycythemia vera (ASH 2024 abstract). The current study examined the prognostic contribution of monocytosis in ET, in the context of other clinical and genetic risk factors. Methods Study patients were recruited from Mayo Clinic (USA) databases, based on availability of information on ANC, ALC, and AMC (N=649). Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022;140:1200). Mutations were screened by next-generation sequencing (NGS). Conventional statistical methods were employed (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) and optimal cut-points for age, ANC, ALC, and AMC were determined by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and ROC plots were used to estimate predictive accuracy of risk models. Results A total of 649 patients (median age 60 years; females 65%) were informative for AMC, ANC, and ALC, with median (range) values of 0.6 x 109/L (0.2-2.5), 5.7 x 109/L (1.5-26.5), and 1.9 (0.4-5.7), respectively. At presentation, IPSET risk distribution was low in 34%, intermediate 47%, and high 19%; triple-A risk distribution was low 21%, intermediate-1 50%, intermediate-2 13%, and high 16%; driver mutation distribution was 63.8% JAK2, 24.0% CALR, 3.7% MPL, and 8.5% triple-negative; median for platelets were 728 x 109/L, hemoglobin 13.9 g/dL, and leukocytes 8.5 x 109/L ; leukocytosis (leukocytes ≥11 x 109/L) was documented in 18.8% of patients, palpable splenomegaly 7%, arterial thrombosis (AT) history 14.5%, venous thrombosis (VT) history 9.2%, and major hemorrhage 7.8%. At median follow-up of 7 years (range 0.02-31.4), 146 (22.5%) deaths, 52 (8%) fibrotic progressions, 22 (3.4%) leukemic transformations, 71 (11%) AT events, 36 (5.6%) VT events, and 64 (10%) major bleeds were recorded. In age-adjusted univariate analysis, higher AMC was significantly associated with inferior survival, with a ROC determined cutoff value of ≥0.8 x 109/L (N=154; 24%); significance was sustained (HR 2.3; p&lt;0.01) during multivariable analysis (MVA) that also identified age &gt;70 years (HR 16.6; p&lt;0.01), age 50-70 years (HR 4.3; p&lt;0.01), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 1.9; p&lt;0.01), ALC &lt;1.7 x 109/L (HR 1.8; p&lt;0.01), and AT history (HR 1.6; p=0.01). A similar MVA conducted on an external cohort from the University of Florence (N=514) confirmed the significant contribution from all of these risk variables, except AT (p=0.8). An HR-based 4-variable prognostic model based on Age &gt;70 years (4 points) or 50-70 years (2 points), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (1 point), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (1 point), and ALC &lt;1.7 x 109/L (1 point), henceforth referred to as the AAA+A model, was subsequently developed using the Mayo Clinic cohort and validated by the Florence cohort: Low (0-1 points; N= 180; median not reached), intermediate-1 (2-3 points; N=266; median 21.6 years), intermediate-2 (4-5 points; N=151; median 12.2 years), and high (6-7 points; N=52; median 8.7 years); HR values were 2.1 for high vs. intermediate-2, 5.4 for intermediate-2 vs. intermediate-1, and 3.8 for intermediate-1 vs. low (p&lt;0.001in all instances). The 20-year survival predictive performance of AAA+A (AIC 131; AUC 0.88) was superior to that of AAA (AIC 143; AUC 0.85) and IPSET (AIC 149; AUC 0.84). In MVA that included AAA+A risk variables, AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (p=0.04) and ALC &lt;1.7 x 109/L (p=0.06) appeared to affect leukemia-free survival and ANC ≥8 x 109/L (p=0.04) myelofibrosis-free survival. In univariate analysis, AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L was associated with AT (p=0.03) but not VT (p=0.14) history and showed borderline significance for venous (p=0.09) and arterial (p=0.07) thrombosis-free survivals; however, significance was lost during MVA. Conclusions: Monocytosis is an adverse prognostic factor in ET and its inclusion as a risk variable enhances the predictive performance of the AAA risk model and is equally simple to apply worldwide. Analyses that include mutations will be presented at meeting.

Background In 2013, we published the first International Working Group (IWG) risk model for survival in polycythemia vera (PV), which included 3-tiered age categories, leukocytosis (≥15 x 109/L), and venous thrombosis, as risk variables (Leukemia. 2013;27:1874). In the current study, we examined the individual prognostic contribution from specific leukocyte components and mutations, in order to construct a more contemporary clinical risk model in PV and assess its interaction with genetic risk factors. Methods Study patients were retrospectively recruited from the Mayo Clinic, USA (N=1,007) and the University of Florence, Italy (N=514), in order to serve as discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022;140:1200). Mutations were screened by next-generation sequencing (NGS). Conventional statistical methods were employed (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) and optimal cut-points for age, absolute neutrophil (ANC), lymphocyte (ALC), and monocyte (AMC) counts were determined by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and ROC plots were used to estimate predictive accuracy. Results Presenting features in the Mayo discovery cohort (N=1,007) included: median age 62.2 years; males 50.7%; median leukocyte count 10.8 x 109/L; leukocyte count ≥15 x 109/L 19%; palpable splenomegaly 32%; pruritus 34%; diabetes 16%; hypertension 61%; arterial thrombosis 14%; and venous thrombosis 14%. ANC, AMC, and ALC information was available in 736 patients with respective median (range) values of 7.6 (1.6-30), 0.6 (0-4.1), and 1.54 (0.19-6.9) x 109/L. At a median follow-up of 8.9 years for the Mayo discovery cohort, 372 (37%) deaths, 46 (4.6%) leukemic transformations, and 200 (20%) fibrotic progressions were recorded. Multivariable analysis (MVA) employing ROC-determined cutoff values revealed adverse survival impact for age &gt;70 years (HR 18.3; p&lt;0.01), age 50-70 years (HR 4.9; p&lt;0.01), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (HR 1.5; p&lt;0.01), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 1.5; p&lt;0.01), arterial thrombosis (HR 1.5; p&lt;0.01), diabetes (HR 1.4; p=0.04), and male sex (HR 1.3; p=0.05). A similar MVA applied to the Florence validation cohort (N=514) confirmed significance for age (p&lt;0.01), ANC (p&lt;0.01), AMC (p=0.04), and arterial thrombosis (p&lt;0.01), but not for male sex (p=0.8) or diabetes (p=0.15). Accordingly, age &gt;70 years (4 points), age 50-70 years (2 points), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (1 point), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (1 point), and AT (1 point) were included in a revised IWG survival model using the Mayo cohort and validated by the Florence cohort: very low risk (0 points; N=67; median 37 years), low risk (1 point; N=55; median 29.2 years), intermediate risk (2-3 points; N=308; median 20.2 years), high risk (4-5 points; N=217; median 11.5 years), and very high risk (6-7 points; N=88; median 6.3 years). 20-year survival prediction performance of the revised IWG model (AIC 204; AUC 0.88) was superior to that of the 2013 IWG version (AIC 350; AUC 0.86). Mutation information at diagnosis/chronic phase was available in 270 Mayo patients: ASXL1 10%; SRSF2 4%, IDH2 2%, TP53 2%, RUNX1 1.4%. MVA of mutations identified SRSF2 (p&lt;0.01), IDH2 (p=0.01), and ASXL1 (p=0.05), as risk factors for overall survival. The presence of any one adverse mutation was more likely in patients with AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (24% vs. 7% incidence; p&lt;0.01). In all-inclusive MVA, independent risk factors for OS were age &gt;70 years (HR 14.7), age 50-70 years (HR 6.2), any one adverse mutation (HR 3.4), and ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 2.3), but not AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (p=0.9), arterial thrombosis (p=0.24), or abnormal karyotype (p=0.4). Leukemia-free survival was adversely affected by SRSF2, RUNX1, TP53, and ASXL1 mutations and myelofibrosis-free survival by SRSF2 mutation. Conclusions: The currently proposed revised IWG risk model for survival in PV is globally applicable and based on four easily accessible clinical variables (Age, ANC, AMC, and arterial thrombosis). NGS-derived mutation information overshadows the prognostic relevance of monocytosis, provides additional prognostic information for overall survival, and assists in predicting leukemic and fibrotic transformations.