Iftikhar, Moazah

ABSTRACTPolycythemia vera (PV) is invariably associated with a JAK2 mutation, with over 50% of patients harboring additional non‐JAK2 mutations. In the current study, 319 patients with PV underwent NGS at diagnosis or in chronic phase PV (Group A: N = 270, 85%) or at the time of fibrotic (Group B; N = 37, 12%) or leukemic (Group C; N = 12, 4%) transformation. Mutational frequencies involving TP53/SRSF2/IDH1/U2AF1 were significantly (p < 0.05) different between patients in the mutually exclusive Groups A (2%/4%/2%/0.4%), B (8%/0%/0%/5%), and C (50%/25%/17%/8%). Analyses on phenotype/genotype associations and prognostic impact on overall (OS), leukemia‐free (LFS), and myelofibrosis‐free (MFFS) survival were limited to Group A patients. ASXL1MUT was associated with younger age (p < 0.01), SRSF2MUT with older age and leukocytosis (p < 0.01), and TP53MUT with leukocytosis (p < 0.01). Mutation co‐segregation was apparent between ASXL1 and IDH2 (p < 0.01) or SRSF2 (p < 0.01), SRSF2 and IDH2 (p < 0.01), and TP53 and NRAS (p = 0.01). Multivariable analysis identified SRSF2MUT (p < 0.01; HR, 4.2, 1.9–9.5), IDH2MUT (p = 0.01; HR, 5.3, 1.8–15.3), ASXL1MUT (p = 0.04; HR, 2.0, 1.1–3.7), leukocyte count ≥ 15 × 109/L (p < 0.01; HR 2.0, 1.3–3.1), and advanced age (p < 0.01) as risk factors for OS. Median OS in the presence (N = 235; 87%) or absence (N = 35; 13%) of any adverse mutation (i.e., SRSF2MUT, ASXL1MUT, or IDH2MUT) was 8.8 versus 17.8 years (p = 0.01; HR 1.8, 1.1–2.9). In addition, ASXL1MUT (p = 0.02; HR, 1.6–24.9), SRSF2MUT (p = 0.06; HR, 11.9, 1.1–126.2), and advanced age (p = 0.04) were associated with inferior LFS, and SRSF2MUT (p < 0.01; HR, 24.0, 5.5–103.8) and abnormal karyotype (p < 0.01; HR 3.8, 1.6–8.9) with inferior MFFS. The number of non‐JAK2 mutations was significant in predicting outcome in univariate but not multivariable analysis. The observations from the current study highlight the prognostic significance of non‐JAK2 mutations in PV and the prospect of their inclusion in future prognostic models.

Background An increased risk of second cancers (SC), in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), has been suggested by a number of population-based and cancer registry studies (Blood 2011;118:6515). Such studies often included patients belonging to a broad category of MPN entities and did not always account for history of cancer prior to the diagnosis of MPN, associated comorbidities, mutations, or treatments received, in assessing risk association and prediction (Leukemia 2019;33:1996). The current study seeks to fill knowledge gaps, in this regard, in the context of a biologically more homogeneous MPN setting, vis-ẚ-vis polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET). Methods The present study was conducted under an institutional review board approved minimum risk protocol that allowed retrospective collection and analysis of data from Mayo Clinic patient records. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022; 140:1200). Documented primary cancers were annotated in 17 categories, not including pre-cancerous conditions or MPN progressions. SC was defined as any cancer that developed after 3 months from the initial diagnosis of MPN. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for univariable and multivariable analysis. Kaplan-Meier plots were used for time-to-event assessment (considering the first in case of multiple events). Results The study population included 1,968 consecutive patients (median age 60 years; 56% females) with PV (N=1,001) or ET (N=967), seen at the Mayo Clinic between 1970 and 2024. Median follow-up was 8.6 years. The incidences of arterial/venous thrombosis were14%/12% at diagnosis and 12%/10% after diagnosis. Co-morbid conditions included diabetes (12%), hypertension (52%), tobacco use (16%), and history of autoimmune/inflammatory disease (AID; 6%); hyperlipidemia was annotated in PV cases only (51%). Non-driver mutation information was available in 620 patients: TET2 (13%), ASXL1 (7%), DNMT3A (5%), SRSF2 (3%), SF3B1 (3%) and TP53 (2%). A history of another cancer was documented in 598 (30%) patients and included cancers documented before/at (N=291; 15%) or after (N=404; 20%) the diagnosis of MPN, with only the latter being referred to as “SC”. Most frequent cancer type was non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), accounting for 28% of cancers diagnosed before/at MPN, and 47% of SC; other SC types included lymphoid neoplasms (10%), melanoma (10%), prostate cancer (9%), and trachea/lung/bronchial cancer (8%), as the most frequent. On multivariable analysis, cancer history, before/at or after MPN diagnosis, clustered with age &gt;60 years (OR 2.7), male sex (OR 1.5), and history of AID (OR 1.7). History of cancer prior to MPN diagnosis, NMSC or otherwise, was associated with inferior overall survival (p&lt;0.01); by contrast, neither myelofibrosis-free (p=0.5) nor leukemia-free (p=0.8) survival was affected. Median time from MPN diagnosis to SC was 5.7 years. In multivariable analysis including all cancers, SC-free survival was adversely affected by age&gt;60 years (HR 2.5; p&lt;0.01), male sex (HR 1.7; p&lt;0.01), history of previous cancer (HR 2.5, p&lt;0.01), and AID history (HR 1.6; p&lt;0.01); all these 4 risk factors remained significant after excluding NMSC. Interestingly, among informative cases, SRSF2 mutation also predicted SC (HR 2.6; p=0.02), even after NMSC cases were excluded (HR 3.4; p=0.02). Pre-MPN history of cancer did not affect either arterial (p=0.9) or venous thrombosis-free survival (p=0.7), in age- and sex-adjusted analysis. Conversely, after excluding post-SC thrombotic events, venous (p=0.02) but not arterial (p=0.1) events, occurring after MPN diagnosis, were predictive of SC. This association remained significant in multivariable analysis that included age, sex, and venous thrombosis history (p=0.03). Additional observations from this study, include an independent association between SC and hyperlipidemia in PV (p&lt;0.01) and ruxolitinib monotherapy with NMSC (HR 9; p&lt;0.01). Conclusions The risk of SC in patients with MPN is significantly higher in older patients, men, and in the presence of pre-MPN cancer history and AID. Incidental venous, but not arterial, thrombosis was associated with subsequent SC, not NMSC. The observed association of SC with SRSF2 mutations and hyperlipidemia is noted but requires further validation.

Background Previous studies have suggested a higher prevalence of autoimmune or inflammatory diseases (AID) in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) (Haematologica 2010; 95:1216); more recent studies have suggested the absence of impact on tumor genetics or disease outcome (Leukemia 2023; 37:1741). In the current study, we conducted a before and after MPN diagnosis survey, in order to examine the prevalence of AID and its impact on overall and transformation-free survival as well as the risk of thrombosis or other co-morbidities, such as cancer. Methods The current study was conducted under an institutional review board approved minimum risk protocol. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022; 140:1200). AID was operationally classified as occuring before or after diagnosis, with the latter requiring first diagnosis occuring ≥3 months after MPN diagnosis. Non-driver mutations were screened by next-generation sequencing (NGS) and was available for 620 patients. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for univariate and multivariable analysis. Kaplan-Meier plots were used for time-to-event assessment, using JMP Pro 17.0.0 software SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA. Results The study population included 1,968 consecutive patients with polycythemia vera (PV; N=1,001) or essential thrombocythemia (ET; N=967), seen at the Mayo Clinic between 1970 and 2024. Mutation information was available in 620 patients. AID was diagnosed before or after MPN diagnosis in 157 (8%) patients, including 121 (6%) before and 43 (4%) after. 134 (85%) patients had history of only one AID while 23 (15%) had ≥2 AIDs. The most prevalent diagnoses included organ-specific AID (48 cases before and 21 after MPN diagnosis), inflammatory arthritis (37 before and 6 after), connective tissue diseases (17 before and 7 after) and inflammatory dermatosis (20 before and 4 after). For each one of these four categories, thyroid disorders (21 before and 6 after), rheumatoid arthritis (22 before and 2 after), antiphospholipid syndrome (8 before and 1 after), and psoriasis (11 before and 4 after) were the most frequent, respectively. Patients with pre-MPN AID history were older (p=0.02) and were more likely to have ET vs. PV and be females (p&lt;0.01); they were also more likely to present with venous (18% vs. 12%, p=0.04) but not arterial (p=0.2) thrombosis. Pre-MPN AID history was significantly associated with pre-MPN cancer history, with the latter including (25% vs 14%, p&lt;0.01) or excluding (18% vs 10%, p&lt;0.01) non melanoma skin cancers (NMSC). Pre-MPN AID history did not correlate with driver or other mutations (including TET2, ASXL1, DNMT3A), leukocyte, neutrophil, monocyte, or lymphocyte counts (p≥0.1 in all instances). Pre-MPN history of AID did not affect overall (p=0.08), myelofibrosis-free (p=0.3), leukemia-free (p=0.3), arterial thrombosis-free (p=0.9), or venous thrombosis-free (p=0.6) survival. Second cancer-free survival (SC-FS), including (p&lt;0.01) or excluding (p&lt;0.01) NMSC, was negatively affected by pre-MPN history of AID. Multivariate analysis confirmed the independent detrimental effect of a pre-MPN history of AID (HR 1.7, p&lt;0.01) on SC-FS; other independent risk factors for SC-FS were older age (p&lt;0.01), male sex (p&lt;0.01) and pre-MPN history of cancer (p&lt;0.01). The association between pre-MPN history of AID and second cancer was also apparent when the latter was limited to lymphoproliferative neoplasms, although with borderline significance (p=0.08), which was further confirmed by adjusting for age and sex (p=0.09). Median time from MPN diagnosis to post-MPN AID was 9 years (range 1-23), which was similar between PV and ET (p=0.5). Post-MPN development of AID was more likely in females (HR 2.3; p=0.01) and in patients with pre-MPN history of AID (HR 4.8; p&lt;0.01) or hypertension (HR 2.1; p&lt;0.03). These risk factors remained significant during multivariable analysis of post-MPN AID-free survival. Conclusions The current study suggests an increased risk of post-MPN AID and second cancers, in patients with pre-MPN history of AID. The study also showed a significant association between pre-MPN history of AID and venous thrombosis at time of MPN diagnosis. These observations reinforce the widely suggested role of tumor-extrinsic inflammation in exacerbating MPN-intrinsic thrombophilia and the development of cancer.

Background Conventional thrombosis risk stratification in polycythemia vera (PV) considers age &gt; 60 years and thrombosis history for assignment to low (no risk factor) or high (at least 1 risk factor) risk category (J Clin Oncol.2011;29(6):761-70). The current study exclusively focused on low-risk PV with the following objectives: i) estimate the incidence of arterial and venous thrombosis; ii) examine the prognostic relevance of clinical and genetic risk factors for thrombosis; and iii) assess the impact of treatment on thrombosis risk. Methods Patients were retrospectively recruited from the Mayo Clinic, USA, and University of Florence, Italy, PV databases. Diagnosis was according to the International Consensus Classification criteria (Blood 2022;140:1200). Only first major arterial (AT) and unprovoked venous thrombosis (VT) were considered. Conventional statistical methods were applied (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results Mayo Clinic cohort A total of 346 patients with low-risk PV were considered: median age 49 years; males 54%; median hemoglobin 17.7 g/dl; median leukocyte count 10.9 x 109/L; leukocyte count &gt;11 x 109/L 49%; median platelet count 471 x 109/L; cardiovascular (CV) risk factors 47%; hypertension 29%; hyperlipidemia 20%; smoking history 12%; diabetes mellitus 5%. Most frequent mutations, other than JAK2, were ASXL1 (13%) and TET2 (13%). Median follow-up was 13.4 years (1-52) (4,636 patient-years) during which 25 (7%) AT and 20 (6%) VT were documented. The corresponding incidence rates were 5.4 and 4.3 per 1,000 patient-years. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, baseline hemoglobin &gt;17.5 g/dl in women or &gt;20 g/dl in men (15% vs 4%; OR 5.1; p&lt;0.01) and absence of leukocytosis &gt;11 x 109/L (10% vs 4%; OR 2.9; p=0.02) were associated with increased risk of AT; in addition, diabetes mellitus (19% vs 7%; OR 3.9; p=0.06), showed borderline significance; overall incidence of AT was 20% in the presence of ≥2 risk factors (n=61), 7% in the presence of one risk factor (n=177), and 1% in the absence of all three risk factors (n=108; p&lt;0.01). Multivariable analysis for arterial thrombosis-free survival (TFS) confirmed the predictive performance of these risk factors: hemoglobin thresholds (HR 4.4; p&lt;0.01); absence of leukocytosis &gt;11 x 109/L (HR 2.7; p=0.03); and diabetes (HR 2.8; p=0.09); 20-year cumulative incidence of AT was 32% in the presence of ≥2 risk factors and 7% otherwise (p&lt;0.01). In multivariable analysis, smoking history was found to be surprisingly protective against VT (0% vs. 7%; p=0.02) while female gender was associated with a borderline higher risk (8% vs 4%; OR 2.2; p=0.09); VT incidence rates were 9% in the presence of both risk factors (n=144), 4% with one risk factor (n=172), and 0% in the absence of both risk factors (n=40; p=0.02); 20-year cumulative incidence of VT was 10% in the presence of both risk factors and 3% otherwise (p=0.03). ASXL1 and TET2 mutations did not appear to modify the risk of either VT (p=0.59) or AT (p=0.66). Treatment at diagnosis included aspirin and cytoreductive therapy in 63% and 24% of patients, respectively. Aspirin but not cytoreductive therapy was associated with a lower incidence of AT (5% vs 11%; 2.3 vs 3.0 per 1,000 patient-years; p=0.04) and VT (4% vs 10%; 1.9 vs 2.8 per 1,000 patient-years; p=0.03). Thrombosis-free survival was not influenced by documented treatment at diagnosis or at the time of event (p&gt;0.1). University of Florence cohort A total of 284 low-risk PV patients were followed for a median of 9.1 years (1-38) with 19 (7%) AT and 24 (8%) VT events recorded; the corresponding incidence rates were 7.4 and 9.3 per 1,000 patient-years. In this Florence cohort, risk factors for AT were diabetes mellitus (HR 3.9), hyperlipidemia (HR 3.8) and advanced age, with only age remaining significant during multivariable analysis (p=0.03). Predictors of VT included hyperlipidemia (HR 4.2) and hypertension (HR 2.1). Treatment with aspirin or cytoreductive therapy did not impact thrombosis-free survival (p&gt;0.1). Conclusion The current study confirms the infrequent occurrence of AT and VT in low-risk PV but also exposes the challenges in identifying risk factors that are reproducible in different but otherwise well-characterized patient cohorts. Discrepancies were also apparent in retrospective comparison of treatment effects on thrombosis, which reinforces the need for prospective studies.

Background Abnormal karyotype is not infrequent in polycythemia vera (PV) and has been associated with shortened survival (BJH 2018;182:437). In the current study, we utilized a large institutional database, in order to describe the spectrum and prevalence of specific cytogenetic abnormalities in PV, during different stages of the disease, and examine their clinical, molecular, and prognostic correlates, in the context of previously established risk factors. Methods After institutional review board approval, we identified 669 cytogenetically-annotated patients with PV, evaluated at the Mayo Clinic between 1973 and 2023, and met the International Consensus Classification diagnostic criteria (Arber et al. Blood 2022;140;1200). Cytogenetic reporting was in accordance with the International System for Human Cytogenomic Nomenclature. Results i) Prevalence of cytogenetic abnormalities at diagnosis and at different stages of the disease 436 of 669 (65%) patients with PV underwent cytogenetic evaluation within one year of diagnosis, 116 (17%) within 1-10 years, 47 (7%) after 10 years, and 70 (10%) at time of fibrotic or leukemic transformation. In patients with cytogenetic information obtained within 1 year of diagnosis, karyotype was normal in 369 (85%), showed loss of Y chromosome (-Y) in 15 (3%), and other abnormalities in 52 (12%). Most common abnormalities included trisomy 9 (n=11; 3%), del(20q) (n=10; 2%), trisomy 8 (n=4; 1%), other sole abnormalities (n=16; 4%), and ≥ 2 abnormalities (n=11; 3%) including complex karyotype (n=4; 0.9%). Frequency of abnormal karyotype was higher with longer disease duration; 15% within a year of diagnosis, 28% in 1-10 years, 49% over 10 years after diagnosis, and 50% at time of fibrotic or leukemic transformation (p&lt;0.01). Sole del (20q), single abnormalities excluding 20q-, +8, +9, or -Y, and ≥ 2 abnormalities including complex karyotype were progressively acquired; respective frequencies within a year of diagnosis, over 10 years after diagnosis, and at time of fibrotic or leukemic transformation were 2%/21%/10% (del (20q), 4%/17%/14% (single abnormality excluding 20q-, +8, +9, or -Y), 3%/11%/19% (≥ 2 abnormalities), 1%/ 2%,/10% (complex karyotype) (all p-values &lt;0.01). In addition, sole +8 displayed highest frequency at fibrotic transformation compared to within a year of diagnosis (5% vs 0.9%; p=0.04). ii) Phenotypic and Molecular Correlates 436 patients with PV (51% males; median age; 64 years) who underwent cytogenetic testing within one year of diagnosis were examined for clinical and molecular correlations. Abnormal karyotype compared to normal karyotype, correlated with older age (median: 70 vs 63 years, p&lt;0.01), male gender (64% vs 48%, p=0.02) and lower platelet count (370 vs 465 × 109/L, p&lt;0.01). Sole del (20q) compared to normal karyotype was associated with older age (median: 76 vs 63 years, p&lt;0.01); sole +8 exclusively occurred in patients ≥ 60 years (p=0.03); sole +9 was associated with venous thrombosis history (45% vs 17%, p=0.03). TET2 and SRSF2 mutations were found to cluster with normal karyotype (18% vs 4%; p=0.04 and 5% vs 0%; p=0.14 in normal vs abnormal karyotype, respectively). iii) Prognostic Impact of Cytogenetic Abnormalities At a median follow-up of 7.4 years (range; 0.04-42.4 years), a total of 163 (37%) patients have died, 50 (11%) and 14 (3%) underwent fibrotic and leukemic transformation, respectively. In univariate analysis for overall survival (OS), abnormal karyotype compared to normal karyotype, was associated with inferior survival (median OS; 10.5 vs 16.3 years, p&lt;0.01). In multivariate analysis, the adverse impact of abnormal karyotype remained significant (p=0.02; HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.3), along with age ≥60 years, leukocyte count ≥15 × 109/L, and SRSF2 mutations. Abnormal karyotype was also an independent predictor of myelofibrosis-free survival (p&lt;0.01; HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.8-7.8), along with SRSF2 mutations. Analysis of leukemia-free survival revealed abnormal karyotype to be a significant risk factor in univariate (p&lt;0.01), but not multivariate analysis that included SRSF2 mutation (p&gt;0.1). Conclusions The current study provides the distribution of cytogenetic abnormalities at different stages of PV and affirms the prognostic significance of abnormal karyotype at the time of diagnosis, highlighting the importance of incorporating cytogenetic studies in the diagnostic evaluation of PV.

Background: JAK2 mutations are invariably associated with polycythemia vera (PV); more than 50% of affected patients also harbor non-JAK2 mutations, some considered prognostically relevant (BJH 2020;189:291). We queried a large single institutional database of patients with PV, in order to examine the incidence and distribution of non-JAK2 mutations, across different disease stages, in order to assess their impact on disease phenotype and prognosis, in the context of other risk factors. Methods: Mayo Clinic databases (1998-2023) were searched to identify next-generation sequencing (NGS)-annotated patients with PV, with diagnosis retrospectively fitted to meet the 2022 International Consensus Classification (ICC) criteria (Blood 2022; 140:1200). NGS was performed either through research-based targeted capture assays or a clinically ordered 42-gene panel. Conventional statistical methods were used for group comparisons and survival analyses. Results: i) Mutational frequencies in chronic vs. transformed disease phases 319 patients with PV were considered; NGS was performed at time of i) diagnosis or before fibrotic or leukemic transformation (N=270; 84.6%), ii) fibrotic progression (N=37; 11.6%), or iii) leukemic transformation (N=12; 3.8%). Mutational frequencies in newly-diagnosed/chronic phase PV were 19% for TET2, 10% for ASXL1, 4% for SRSF2, ⁓3% each for SF3B1, DNMT3A, and SH2B3, and 1-2% each for TP53 and IDH2. Significant differences in mutation distribution were apparent for TP53/SRSF2/IDH1/U2AF1 in blast (50%/25%/17%/8%) vs. fibrotic (8%/0%/0%/5%) vs. chronic (2%/4%/2%/0.4%) phase (p&lt;0.01, &lt;0.01, =0.03, and =0.03, respectively). ii) Phenotypic correlates of specific mutations among patients with NGS information obtained during chronic phase (N=270) Median age was 61.4 years (51% males) and incidence rates included 22% for leukocytosis ( ≥15 x 10(9)/L) and 25%/14% for arterial/venous thrombosis history. Numerically prevalent or prognostically relevant mutations were selected for comparison of clinical or laboratory characteristics: TET2, ASXL1, SRSF2, TP53, IDH2. Significant associations were apparent for ASXL1 (younger age distribution), SRSF2 (older age distribution, leukocytosis), and TP53 (leukocytosis) mutations. Median age was 66.4, 58.7, 76.8, 63.9, and 68.6 years for TET2, ASXL1, SRSF2, TP53, IDH2 mutations, respectively (p&lt;0.01). The corresponding median leukocyte counts were 12.1, 11.4, 14.4, 16.7, and 11.5 x 10(9)/L (p&lt;0.01). iii) Prognostic impact of mutations detected at diagnosis or chronic phase (N=270) At median follow-up of 9.5 years (range 0.1-42.4), 115 (43%) deaths, 12 (4%) leukemic transformations, and 53 (20%) fibrotic progressions were documented. In univariate analysis of mutations, overall survival (OS) was adversely affected by SRSF2 and IDH2 mutations, leukemia-free survival (LFS) by ASXL1, SRSF2, IDH2, RUNX1, and CEBPA mutations, and myelofibrosis-free survival (MFS) by SRSF2 mutation. Age-adjusted (p&lt;0.01) multivariable analysis, including mutations and other risk variables, identified SRSF2 (HR 4.2, 95% CI 1.9-9.5), ASXL1 (HR 2.0, 1.1-3.7), IDH2 (HR 5.3, 1.8-15.3) mutations and leukocytosis ≥15 x 10(9)/L (HR 2.0, 1.3-3.1) as independent predictors of inferior OS. SRSF2 and ASXL1 mutations were also independently associated with inferior LFS (p=0.02 and 0.06, respectively) and SRSF2 (p&lt;0.01) and karyotype (p&lt;0.01) with inferior MFS (p&lt;0.01). Median survival for 235 patients without any adverse mutation (ASXL1, SRSF2, or IDH2) was 17.8 years vs. 8.8 years for 35 patients with any one of the three adverse mutations (p=0.01; HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.9). The number of non-JAK2 mutations, in general, was also associated with significantly different survival outcomes: median OS was 20, 15.1, and 9.3 years for patients with non-JAK2 mutations numbering zero, one, or two or more, respectively (p&lt;0.01) Conclusions: SRSF2 mutations in PV cluster with older and ASXL1 with younger age distribution. SRSF2 and TP53 mutational frequencies were higher in blast-phase disease. SRSF2, ASXL1, and IDH2 mutations were significantly associated with inferior OS, independent of each other and other risk factors. SRSF2 mutations were also detrimental to LFS and MFS and ASXL1 to LFS. Such information might allow further refinement of current risk models for PV, which in future studies should also account for variant allele frequency.

Background In 2013, we published the first International Working Group (IWG) risk model for survival in polycythemia vera (PV), which included 3-tiered age categories, leukocytosis (≥15 x 109/L), and venous thrombosis, as risk variables (Leukemia. 2013;27:1874). In the current study, we examined the individual prognostic contribution from specific leukocyte components and mutations, in order to construct a more contemporary clinical risk model in PV and assess its interaction with genetic risk factors. Methods Study patients were retrospectively recruited from the Mayo Clinic, USA (N=1,007) and the University of Florence, Italy (N=514), in order to serve as discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022;140:1200). Mutations were screened by next-generation sequencing (NGS). Conventional statistical methods were employed (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) and optimal cut-points for age, absolute neutrophil (ANC), lymphocyte (ALC), and monocyte (AMC) counts were determined by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and ROC plots were used to estimate predictive accuracy. Results Presenting features in the Mayo discovery cohort (N=1,007) included: median age 62.2 years; males 50.7%; median leukocyte count 10.8 x 109/L; leukocyte count ≥15 x 109/L 19%; palpable splenomegaly 32%; pruritus 34%; diabetes 16%; hypertension 61%; arterial thrombosis 14%; and venous thrombosis 14%. ANC, AMC, and ALC information was available in 736 patients with respective median (range) values of 7.6 (1.6-30), 0.6 (0-4.1), and 1.54 (0.19-6.9) x 109/L. At a median follow-up of 8.9 years for the Mayo discovery cohort, 372 (37%) deaths, 46 (4.6%) leukemic transformations, and 200 (20%) fibrotic progressions were recorded. Multivariable analysis (MVA) employing ROC-determined cutoff values revealed adverse survival impact for age &gt;70 years (HR 18.3; p&lt;0.01), age 50-70 years (HR 4.9; p&lt;0.01), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (HR 1.5; p&lt;0.01), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 1.5; p&lt;0.01), arterial thrombosis (HR 1.5; p&lt;0.01), diabetes (HR 1.4; p=0.04), and male sex (HR 1.3; p=0.05). A similar MVA applied to the Florence validation cohort (N=514) confirmed significance for age (p&lt;0.01), ANC (p&lt;0.01), AMC (p=0.04), and arterial thrombosis (p&lt;0.01), but not for male sex (p=0.8) or diabetes (p=0.15). Accordingly, age &gt;70 years (4 points), age 50-70 years (2 points), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (1 point), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (1 point), and AT (1 point) were included in a revised IWG survival model using the Mayo cohort and validated by the Florence cohort: very low risk (0 points; N=67; median 37 years), low risk (1 point; N=55; median 29.2 years), intermediate risk (2-3 points; N=308; median 20.2 years), high risk (4-5 points; N=217; median 11.5 years), and very high risk (6-7 points; N=88; median 6.3 years). 20-year survival prediction performance of the revised IWG model (AIC 204; AUC 0.88) was superior to that of the 2013 IWG version (AIC 350; AUC 0.86). Mutation information at diagnosis/chronic phase was available in 270 Mayo patients: ASXL1 10%; SRSF2 4%, IDH2 2%, TP53 2%, RUNX1 1.4%. MVA of mutations identified SRSF2 (p&lt;0.01), IDH2 (p=0.01), and ASXL1 (p=0.05), as risk factors for overall survival. The presence of any one adverse mutation was more likely in patients with AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (24% vs. 7% incidence; p&lt;0.01). In all-inclusive MVA, independent risk factors for OS were age &gt;70 years (HR 14.7), age 50-70 years (HR 6.2), any one adverse mutation (HR 3.4), and ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 2.3), but not AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (p=0.9), arterial thrombosis (p=0.24), or abnormal karyotype (p=0.4). Leukemia-free survival was adversely affected by SRSF2, RUNX1, TP53, and ASXL1 mutations and myelofibrosis-free survival by SRSF2 mutation. Conclusions: The currently proposed revised IWG risk model for survival in PV is globally applicable and based on four easily accessible clinical variables (Age, ANC, AMC, and arterial thrombosis). NGS-derived mutation information overshadows the prognostic relevance of monocytosis, provides additional prognostic information for overall survival, and assists in predicting leukemic and fibrotic transformations.

Background A JAK2 mutation is detected in almost all patients with polycythemia vera (PV) and in ⁓50% of those with essential thrombocythemia (ET). The two diseases also share characteristic clinical and bone marrow morphological traits, suggesting they exist on a disease continuum rather than representing discrete entities. The objective of the current study was to compare clinical and genetic characteristics as well as long-term outcome between formally-defined PV vs. JAK2-mutated ET vs. JAK2-wild-type (WT) ET. Methods Study patients were retrospectively recruited from Mayo Clinic, USA databases (1967-2024). Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (ICC; Blood 2022;140:1200). All study patients were fully annotated for JAK2, CALR, and MPL mutations while cytogenetic and additional next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived mutation information was available in a subset of patients. Conventional statistical methods were employed for phenotypic comparisons and survival analysis. Results Among 2,010 study patients, 1,010 had PV, 617 (63%) JAK2-mutated ET, and 383 JAK2-WT ET (CALR 26%; MPL 3%; triple-negative 9%). Phenotypic comparisons revealed older age distribution in PV compared to JAK2-mutated ET (p=0.03) and the latter compared to JAK2-WT ET (p&lt;0.01). Females were represented more in JAK2-mutated ET (69%), compared to both PV (49%; p&lt;0.01) and JAK2-WT ET (54%; p&lt;0.01). The frequencies of leukocytosis, palpable splenomegaly, constitutional symptoms, diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal karyotype were all significantly higher in PV, compared to both groups of ET, while JAK2-mutated compared to JAK2-WT ET displayed higher leukocyte count and incidence of hypertension. The incidences of arterial thrombosis at/prior to diagnosis were 14%, 16%, and 10% in PV, JAK2-mutated and WT ET, respectively (P=0.03), and venous thrombosis 14%, 13%, and 6% (p&lt;0.01). After a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 632 (32%) deaths, 329 (16%) fibrotic progressions, 79 (4%) leukemic transformations, and 236 (12%) arterial and 202 (10%) venous thrombotic events were recorded, among all 2,010 study patients. Median overall survival was 19.3 years for PV vs. 17.8 years for JAK2-mutated ET vs. 23 years for JAK2-WT ET (p&lt;0.01); however, the significant difference in favor of JAK2-WT ET was no longer apparent when analysis was adjusted for age and sex (p=0.15) and subsequently for other risk factors (p=0.86). All-inclusive multivariable analysis identified older age (p&lt;0.01), male sex (p&lt;0.01), higher leukocyte count (p&lt;0.01), and arterial thrombosis history (p&lt;0.01), but not the distinction between PV, JAK2-mutated, and JAK2-WT ET (p=0.9), to be independently associated with shortened survival. Leukemia-free survival was similar between PV and either JAK2-mutated (p=0.5) or JAK2-WT (p=0.1) ET. On the other hand, myelofibrosis-free survival was shorter in PV, compared to both JAK2-mutated (HR 1.8, 1.4-2.4; p&lt;0.01) and JAK2-WT (HR 1.4. 1.0-1.8; p=0.03) ET. In multivariable analysis, older age (p&lt;0.01), higher leukocyte count (p&lt;0.01), PV vs. JAK2-mutated ET (HR 1.8; p&lt;0.01), and JAK2-WT vs. JAK2-mutated ET (HR 1.6; p=0.01) were associated with a higher risk of fibrotic progression, with no difference noted between PV and JAK2-WT ET (p=0.4). Arterial thrombosis-free survival was similar between PV and JAK2-mutated ET (p=0.8). In univariate analysis, JAK2-WT ET vs. PV was associated with superior arterial thrombosis-free survival (p=0.02), but significance was lost when analysis was adjusted for arterial thrombosis history (p=0.1). Venous thrombosis-free survival favored JAK2-WT ET vs. PV (HR 0.3; p&lt;0.01) and JAK2-mutated ET (HR 0.6; p=0.02) and the latter vs. PV (HR 0.6; p&lt;0.01); the significant differences between PV and both groups of ET were sustained when analysis was adjusted for age, sex, and venous thrombosis history. Conclusions The current study highlights significant demographic and phenotypic differences between PV and JAK2-mutated ET. However, risk factor-adjusted overall, leukemia-free, and arterial thrombosis-free survival was not inferior in PV, compared to ET, regardless of the presence or absence of a JAK2 mutation in the latter. JAK2-WT ET was distinctly associated with a lower risk of venous thrombosis while JAK2-mutated ET appeared to be less vulnerable to fibrotic progression.

Background Absolute basophil count (ABC) might be increased in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms and has been associated with poor prognosis in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) and, possibly, primary myelofibrosis (PMF, Front. Oncol 2019;9:872). In a Mayo Clinic survey of 382 patients with BCR::ABL1-negative leukocytosis and ABC ≥0.09 x 109/L, 191 (50%) were associated with myeloid neoplasms, including 104 (27%) with CML, 23 (6%) essential thrombocythemia, 21 (6%) polycythemia vera (PV), and 18 (5%) PMF (AJH 2020;95:E216). Herein, we tapped into a well-characterized cohort of patients with PV, in order to describe the prevalence of basophilia, at specific ABC thresholds, and corresponding clinical, molecular, and prognostic correlates. Methods Study patients were retrospectively recruited from Mayo Clinic (USA) databases, after approval from IRB. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022;140:1200). Study inclusion criteria included the availability of information on ABC and absolute eosinophil count (AEC). Mayo Clinic institutional reference range for ABC was 0.01 to 0.08 x 109/L and for AEC 0.03 to 0.48 x 109/L. “Eosinophilia” was defined as an AEC of ≥0.6 x 109/L. Basophilia was evaluated both at an ABC of ≥0.1 x 109/L and ABC of ≥0.3 x 109/L, the latter representing 3 x the upper limit of the normal reference range. Cytogenetic information obtained within one year of diagnosis was available in 270 patients. Next-generation sequencing information collected before disease transformation was available in 99 patients. Conventional statistical methods were employed for comparisons of groups and survival analysis (JMP Pro 17.0.0 software SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results Information on ABC and AEC, obtained within one year of diagnosis, was available in 478 patients (median age 66 years; males 51%). Median values at presentation were 10.6 x 109/L for leukocyte count, 453 x 109/L platelet count, and 17.3 g/dL hemoglobin level. Presenting symptoms included palpable splenomegaly 24%, pruritus 31%, arterial thrombosis 12%, and venous thrombosis 17%. Median and range values for ABC and AEC were 0.12 x 109/L (0-3.2) and 0.27 x 109/L (0-6.5), respectively. ABC was ≥0.3 x 109/L in 80 (17%) patients and ≥0.1 x 109/L in 315 (66%). AEC was ≥0.6 x 109/L in 68 (14.6%) patients. ABC≥0.3 x 109/L was associated with AEC ≥0.6 x 109/L (p&lt;0.01), leukocytosis (p&lt;0.01), and palpable splenomegaly (p=0.02), but not platelet count, pruritus, smoking history, diabetes, or arterial or venous thrombosis; in multivariable analysis, the association with leukocytosis, but not that with splenomegaly, was confirmed. At a median follow-up of 5.7 years (range 0.03-32.8), 132 (28%) deaths, 17 (3.6%) leukemic and 40 (8.4%) fibrotic progressions were documented. Post-diagnosis events also included arterial (7%) and venous (9%) thrombosis. In univariate analysis, neither ABC (p=0.8, 0.7, and 0.96) nor AEC (p=0.7, 0.6, and 0.8), evaluated as continuous variables, affected overall (OS), leukemia-free (LFS), or myelofibrosis-free (MFFS) survival, respectively. Similarly, eosinophilia at AEC ≥0.6 x 109/L did not appear to influence OS (p=0.99), LFS (p=0.6) or MFFS (p=0.5). On the other hand, although basophilia at ABC≥0.3 x 109/L did not affect OS (p=0.27), it was significantly associated with inferior LFS (HR 6.5, 95% CI 2.3-18.0; p&lt;0.01) and MFFS (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.5; p=0.01); the corresponding p values for ABC≥0.1 x 109/L were 0.7, 0.1, and 0.17. The detrimental impact of basophilia (ABC≥0.3 x 109/L) on LFS was confirmed (P&lt;0.01) with multivariable analysis that included other clinical variables, including leukocytosis (NS), platelet count (NS), basophil percentage (NS), age (p&lt;0.01), and palpable splenomegaly (p&lt;0.01). Results were similar during multivariable analysis for MFFS with palpable splenomegaly (p&lt;0.01), ABC≥0.3 x 109/L (p=0.03), and age (p=0.05) sustaining independent predictive value. The number of informative cases was too small to evaluate prognostic interaction with mutations and karyotype. Conclusions: Basophilia in PV is associated with palpable splenomegaly and leukocytosis and independently predicts leukemic and myelofibrotic transformation. Additional studies are needed to confirm these observations and examine prognostic interaction with mutations and karyotype.