Pharoah, Paul D.P.

Abstract Background: High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is the most common and aggressive epithelial ovarian cancer. HGSOC has poor survival, with five-year survival of less than 40%, as it is often diagnosed at a late stage. The median overall survival (OS) is approximately four years. Prognostic gene expression signatures for HGSOC have been inconsistent and have not been translated into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to develop a robust prognostic signature for HGSOC, in order to identify high-risk patients requiring alternative treatments. Methods: A meta-analysis of 1,455 tumors was performed and 200 prognostic genes were selected for expression profiling. An additional 315 candidate genes were selected from the literature, drug-targetable pathways, and other hypotheses. NanoString expression analysis of the 513 genes was performed on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor tissue from 3,769 women with HGSOC from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis (OTTA) Consortium. A prognostic model for 5-year survival was developed using regression-based and machine learning methods. The model was trained on 2,702 tumors and evaluated on an independent set of 1,067 tumors. A NanoString expression analysis was performed on 2,692 additional tumors, for a subset of 218 of the genes, including the prognostic signature. Results: Expression of 276 genes was associated with OS (false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05) in single-gene analyses adjusted for age, stage, and race. The top five genes were TAP1, ZFHX4, CXCL9, FBN1, and PTGER3 (p << 0.001). A 101-gene prognostic signature was established, where a gain of one standard deviation in the gene expression score conferred a greater than two-fold increase in risk of death (HR (hazard ratio) = 2.35 [2.02, 2.71]; p << 0.001). Median survival by quintile group was 9.5, 5.4, 3.8, 3.2, and 2.3 years. Sensitivity analyses, applying the signature to specific patient groups, showed that the prognostic power of the signature is not explained by residual disease, treatment, BRCA status, or CD8 score. The prognostic signature was enriched in pathways with treatment implications, such as PI3K, GPCR, and immune. This signature is suitable for use in FFPE tumor material and future cases can be assigned an HR from the gene expression score. The signature was developed in cases that did not receive neoadjuvant treatment (NACT); however, application to NACT cases was assessed in the second NanoString expression analysis. Conclusion: The OTTA-SPOT (Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium – Stratified Prognosis of Ovarian Tumors) gene expression signature may improve risk stratification in clinical trials by identifying patients who are least likely to achieve 5-year survival. Citation Format: Joshua Millstein, Timothy Budden, Ellen L. Goode, Michael S. Anglesio, Aline Talhouk, OTTA consortium, David G. Huntsman, David D. Bowtell, James D. Brenton, Jennifer A. Doherty, Paul P.D. Pharoah, Susan J. Ramus. The Ovarian Tumour Tissue Analysis Consortium: Stratified Prognosis of Ovarian Tumors (OTTA-SPOT) signature for high-grade serous ovarian cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Advances in Ovarian Cancer Research; 2019 Sep 13-16, 2019; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2020;26(13_Suppl):Abstract nr IA12.

Abstract Background Parity is associated with decreased risk of invasive ovarian cancer; however, the relationship between incomplete pregnancies and invasive ovarian cancer risk is unclear. This relationship was examined using 15 case-control studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). Histotype-specific associations, which have not been examined previously with large sample sizes, were also evaluated. Methods A pooled analysis of 10 470 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 16 942 controls was conducted. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between incomplete pregnancies and invasive epithelial ovarian cancer were estimated using logistic regression. All models were conditioned on OCAC study, race and ethnicity, age, and education level and adjusted for number of complete pregnancies, oral contraceptive use, and history of breastfeeding. The same approach was used for histotype-specific analyses. Results Ever having an incomplete pregnancy was associated with a 16% reduction in ovarian cancer risk (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.79 to 0.89). There was a trend of decreasing risk with increasing number of incomplete pregnancies (2-sided Ptrend < .001). An inverse association was observed for all major histotypes; it was strongest for clear cell ovarian cancer. Conclusions Incomplete pregnancies are associated with a reduced risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Pregnancy, including incomplete pregnancy, was associated with a greater reduction in risk of clear cell ovarian cancer, but the result was broadly consistent across histotypes. Future work should focus on understanding the mechanisms underlying this reduced risk.

Abstract Background: A polygenic hazard score (PHS), the weighted sum of 54 SNP genotypes, was previously validated for association with clinically significant prostate cancer and for improved prostate cancer screening accuracy. Here, we assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening. Methods: United Kingdom population incidence data (Cancer Research United Kingdom) and data from the Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer were combined to estimate age-specific clinically significant prostate cancer incidence (Gleason score ≥7, stage T3–T4, PSA ≥10, or nodal/distant metastases). Using HRs estimated from the ProtecT prostate cancer trial, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for various PHS risk percentiles. Risk-equivalent age, when someone with a given PHS percentile has prostate cancer risk equivalent to an average 50-year-old man (50-year-standard risk), was derived from PHS and incidence data. Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was calculated using PHS-adjusted age groups. Results: The expected age at diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer differs by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles: men with PHS in the 1st and 99th percentiles reach the 50-year-standard risk level at ages 60 and 41, respectively. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age. Conclusions: PHS provides individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for clinically significant prostate cancer. Screening initiation could be adjusted by a man's PHS. Impact: Personalized genetic risk assessments could inform prostate cancer screening decisions.

Abstract Purpose: Gene expression–based molecular subtypes of high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer (HGSOC), demonstrated across multiple studies, may provide improved stratification for molecularly targeted trials. However, evaluation of clinical utility has been hindered by nonstandardized methods, which are not applicable in a clinical setting. We sought to generate a clinical grade minimal gene set assay for classification of individual tumor specimens into HGSOC subtypes and confirm previously reported subtype-associated features. Experimental Design: Adopting two independent approaches, we derived and internally validated algorithms for subtype prediction using published gene expression data from 1,650 tumors. We applied resulting models to NanoString data on 3,829 HGSOCs from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. We further developed, confirmed, and validated a reduced, minimal gene set predictor, with methods suitable for a single-patient setting. Results: Gene expression data were used to derive the predictor of high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma molecular subtype (PrOTYPE) assay. We established a de facto standard as a consensus of two parallel approaches. PrOTYPE subtypes are significantly associated with age, stage, residual disease, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and outcome. The locked-down clinical grade PrOTYPE test includes a model with 55 genes that predicted gene expression subtype with >95% accuracy that was maintained in all analytic and biological validations. Conclusions: We validated the PrOTYPE assay following the Institute of Medicine guidelines for the development of omics-based tests. This fully defined and locked-down clinical grade assay will enable trial design with molecular subtype stratification and allow for objective assessment of the predictive value of HGSOC molecular subtypes in precision medicine applications. See related commentary by McMullen et al., p. 5271

Purpose The known epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) susceptibility genes account for less than 50% of the heritable risk of ovarian cancer suggesting that other susceptibility genes exist. The aim of this study was to evaluate the contribution to ovarian cancer susceptibility of rare deleterious germline variants in a set of candidate genes. Methods We sequenced the coding region of 54 candidate genes in 6385 invasive EOC cases and 6115 controls of broad European ancestry. Genes with an increased frequency of putative deleterious variants in cases versus controls were further examined in an independent set of 14 135 EOC cases and 28 655 controls from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium and the UK Biobank. For each gene, we estimated the EOC risks and evaluated associations between germline variant status and clinical characteristics. Results The ORs associated for high-grade serous ovarian cancer were 3.01 for PALB2 (95% CI 1.59 to 5.68; p=0.00068), 1.99 for POLK (95% CI 1.15 to 3.43; p=0.014) and 4.07 for SLX4 (95% CI 1.34 to 12.4; p=0.013). Deleterious mutations in FBXO10 were associated with a reduced risk of disease (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.00, p=0.049). However, based on the Bayes false discovery probability, only the association for PALB2 in high-grade serous ovarian cancer is likely to represent a true positive. Conclusions We have found strong evidence that carriers of PALB2 deleterious mutations are at increased risk of high-grade serous ovarian cancer. Whether the magnitude of risk is sufficiently high to warrant the inclusion of PALB2 in cancer gene panels for ovarian cancer risk testing is unclear; much larger sample sizes will be needed to provide sufficiently precise estimates for clinical counselling.

Abstract We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer.

AbstractBackgroundBody mass index (BMI) and diabetes are established risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC), likely through perturbations in metabolic traits (e.g. insulin resistance and glucose homeostasis). Identification of interactions between variation in genes and these metabolic risk factors may identify novel biologic insights into CRC etiology.MethodsTo improve statistical power and interpretation for gene‐environment interaction (G × E) testing, we tested genetic variants that regulate expression of a gene together for interaction with BMI (kg/m2) and diabetes on CRC risk among 26 017 cases and 20 692 controls. Each variant was weighted based on PrediXcan analysis of gene expression data from colon tissue generated in the Genotype‐Tissue Expression Project for all genes with heritability ≥1%. We used a mixed‐effects model to jointly measure the G × E interaction in a gene by partitioning the interactions into the predicted gene expression levels (fixed effects), and residual G × E effects (random effects). G × BMI analyses were stratified by sex as BMI‐CRC associations differ by sex. We used false discovery rates to account for multiple comparisons and reported all results with FDR <0.2.ResultsAmong 4839 genes tested, genetically predicted expressions of FOXA1 (P = 3.15 × 10−5), PSMC5 (P = 4.51 × 10−4) and CD33 (P = 2.71 × 10−4) modified the association of BMI on CRC risk for men; KIAA0753 (P = 2.29 × 10−5) and SCN1B (P = 2.76 × 10−4) modified the association of BMI on CRC risk for women; and PTPN2 modified the association between diabetes and CRC risk in both sexes (P = 2.31 × 10−5).ConclusionsAggregating G × E interactions and incorporating functional information, we discovered novel genes that may interact with BMI and diabetes on CRC risk.

AbstractPrevious transcriptome‐wide association studies (TWAS) have identified breast cancer risk genes by integrating data from expression quantitative loci and genome‐wide association studies (GWAS), but analyses of breast cancer subtype‐specific associations have been limited. In this study, we conducted a TWAS using gene expression data from GTEx and summary statistics from the hitherto largest GWAS meta‐analysis conducted for breast cancer overall, and by estrogen receptor subtypes (ER+ and ER−). We further compared associations with ER+ and ER− subtypes, using a case‐only TWAS approach. We also conducted multigene conditional analyses in regions with multiple TWAS associations. Two genes, STXBP4 and HIST2H2BA, were specifically associated with ER+ but not with ER– breast cancer. We further identified 30 TWAS‐significant genes associated with overall breast cancer risk, including four that were not identified in previous studies. Conditional analyses identified single independent breast‐cancer gene in three of six regions harboring multiple TWAS‐significant genes. Our study provides new information on breast cancer genetics and biology, particularly about genomic differences between ER+ and ER− breast cancer.

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to estimate precise age-specific tubo-ovarian carcinoma (TOC) and breast cancer (BC) risks for carriers of pathogenic variants in RAD51C and RAD51D. Methods We analyzed data from 6178 families, 125 with pathogenic variants in RAD51C, and 6690 families, 60 with pathogenic variants in RAD51D. TOC and BC relative and cumulative risks were estimated using complex segregation analysis to model the cancer inheritance patterns in families while adjusting for the mode of ascertainment of each family. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Pathogenic variants in both RAD51C and RAD51D were associated with TOC (RAD51C: relative risk [RR] = 7.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.60 to 10.19; P = 5 × 10-40; RAD51D: RR = 7.60, 95% CI = 5.61 to 10.30; P = 5 × 10-39) and BC (RAD51C: RR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.39 to 2.85; P = 1.55 × 10-4; RAD51D: RR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.72; P = .002). For both RAD51C and RAD51D, there was a suggestion that the TOC relative risks increased with age until around age 60 years and decreased thereafter. The estimated cumulative risks of developing TOC to age 80 years were 11% (95% CI = 6% to 21%) for RAD51C and 13% (95% CI = 7% to 23%) for RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. The estimated cumulative risks of developing BC to 80 years were 21% (95% CI = 15% to 29%) for RAD51C and 20% (95% CI = 14% to 28%) for RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. Both TOC and BC risks for RAD51C and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers varied by cancer family history and could be as high as 32–36% for TOC, for carriers with two first-degree relatives diagnosed with TOC, or 44–46% for BC, for carriers with two first-degree relatives diagnosed with BC. Conclusions These estimates will facilitate the genetic counseling of RAD51C and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers and justify the incorporation of RAD51C and RAD51D into cancer risk prediction models.

Abstract Background: Results from epidemiologic studies examining polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and colorectal cancer risk are inconsistent. Mendelian randomization may strengthen causal inference from observational studies. Given their shared metabolic pathway, examining the combined effects of aspirin/NSAID use with PUFAs could help elucidate an association between PUFAs and colorectal cancer risk. Methods: Information was leveraged from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) regarding PUFA-associated SNPs to create weighted genetic scores (wGS) representing genetically predicted circulating blood PUFAs for 11,016 non-Hispanic white colorectal cancer cases and 13,732 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO). Associations per SD increase in the wGS were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. Interactions between PUFA wGSs and aspirin/NSAID use on colorectal cancer risk were also examined. Results: Modest colorectal cancer risk reductions were observed per SD increase in circulating linoleic acid [ORLA = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.93–0.98; P = 5.2 × 10−4] and α-linolenic acid (ORALA = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.92–0.97; P = 5.4 × 10−5), whereas modest increased risks were observed for arachidonic (ORAA = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.03–1.08; P = 3.3 × 10−5), eicosapentaenoic (OREPA = 1.04; 95% CI = 1.01–1.07; P = 2.5 × 10−3), and docosapentaenoic acids (ORDPA = 1.03; 95% CI = 1.01–1.06; P = 1.2 × 10−2). Each of these effects was stronger among aspirin/NSAID nonusers in the stratified analyses. Conclusions: Our study suggests that higher circulating shorter-chain PUFAs (i.e., LA and ALA) were associated with reduced colorectal cancer risk, whereas longer-chain PUFAs (i.e., AA, EPA, and DPA) were associated with an increased colorectal cancer risk. Impact: The interaction of PUFAs with aspirin/NSAID use indicates a shared colorectal cancer inflammatory pathway. Future research should continue to improve PUFA genetic instruments to elucidate the independent effects of PUFAs on colorectal cancer.