Loveday, Chey

Abstract Background For many evidence criteria within v3.0 of the ACMG/AMP guidelines, methodologies have been developed to empower their use outside the stipulated evidence strengths. However, no such methodology has been established for case-control data (PS4). With the release of large-scale unselected case-control datasets and expansion of nationally-collected laboratory datasets enriched for pathogenic variant carriers, there is potential to combine datasets across ascertainment contexts in a more quantitative manner using novel likelihood ratio tools. Methods Using our published PS4-LR-Calculator, we calculated a combined log likelihood ratio (PS4-LLR) across five datasets (three unselected, and two enriched), and estimated enrichment of pathogenic variants in clinically-ascertained laboratory data using truncating variant prevalence. Results Data were combined for 10,817 missense variants from 325,345 female breast cancer patients and 671,006 controls of Western European ancestry for five breast cancer susceptibility genes ( BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, CHEK2 ). A combined LLR was produced for 4,690 missense variants; 927 variants received evidence towards pathogenicity (LLR≥ 1), and 3,242 received evidence towards benignity (LLR≤ -1). Conclusion This flexible, variant-level methodology combines nationally-collected ‘enriched’ datasets with unselected case-control cohorts, expanding the available information for case-control analysis, boosting power, enabling exploration of atypical penetrance and empowering variant classification.

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to estimate precise age-specific tubo-ovarian carcinoma (TOC) and breast cancer (BC) risks for carriers of pathogenic variants in RAD51C and RAD51D. Methods We analyzed data from 6178 families, 125 with pathogenic variants in RAD51C, and 6690 families, 60 with pathogenic variants in RAD51D. TOC and BC relative and cumulative risks were estimated using complex segregation analysis to model the cancer inheritance patterns in families while adjusting for the mode of ascertainment of each family. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Pathogenic variants in both RAD51C and RAD51D were associated with TOC (RAD51C: relative risk [RR] = 7.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.60 to 10.19; P = 5 × 10-40; RAD51D: RR = 7.60, 95% CI = 5.61 to 10.30; P = 5 × 10-39) and BC (RAD51C: RR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.39 to 2.85; P = 1.55 × 10-4; RAD51D: RR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.72; P = .002). For both RAD51C and RAD51D, there was a suggestion that the TOC relative risks increased with age until around age 60 years and decreased thereafter. The estimated cumulative risks of developing TOC to age 80 years were 11% (95% CI = 6% to 21%) for RAD51C and 13% (95% CI = 7% to 23%) for RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. The estimated cumulative risks of developing BC to 80 years were 21% (95% CI = 15% to 29%) for RAD51C and 20% (95% CI = 14% to 28%) for RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. Both TOC and BC risks for RAD51C and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers varied by cancer family history and could be as high as 32–36% for TOC, for carriers with two first-degree relatives diagnosed with TOC, or 44–46% for BC, for carriers with two first-degree relatives diagnosed with BC. Conclusions These estimates will facilitate the genetic counseling of RAD51C and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers and justify the incorporation of RAD51C and RAD51D into cancer risk prediction models.