Fritschi, Lin

Background: Breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRS) and traditional risk models (e.g., the Gail model [Gail]) are known to contribute largely independent information, but it is unclear how the overlap varies by ancestry, age, disease type (invasive breast cancer, DCIS), and risk threshold. Methods: In a retrospective case–control study, we evaluated risk prediction performance in 180,398 women (161,849 of European ancestry; 18,549 of Asian ancestry). Odds ratios (ORs) from logistic regression models and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were estimated. Results: PRS for invasive disease showed a stronger association in younger (<50 years) women (OR = 2.51, AUC = 0.622) than in women ≥ 50 years (OR = 2.06, AUC = 0.653) of European ancestry. PRS performance in Asians was lower (OR range = 1.62–1.64, AUC = 0.551–0.600). Gail performance was modest across groups and poor in younger Asian women (OR = 0.94–0.99, AUC = 0.523–0.533). Age interactions were observed for both PRS (p < 0.001) and Gail (p < 0.001) in Europeans, whereas in Asians, age interaction was observed only for Gail (invasive: p < 0.001; DCIS: p = 0.002). PRS identified more high-risk individuals than Gail in Asian populations, especially ≥50 years, while Gail identified more in Europeans. Overlap between PRS, Gail, and family history was limited at higher thresholds. Calibration analysis, comparing empirical and model-based ROC curves, showed divergence for both PRS and Gail (p < 0.001), which indicates miscalibration. In Europeans, family history and prior biopsies drove Gail discrimination. In younger Asians, age at first live birth was influential. Conclusions: PRS adds value to risk stratification beyond traditional tools, especially in younger women and Asian ancestry populations.

Background Polygenic risk score (PRS), calculated based on genome-wide association studies (GWASs), can improve breast cancer (BC) risk assessment. To date, most BC GWASs have been performed in individuals of European (EUR) ancestry, and the generalisation of EUR-based PRS to other populations is a major challenge. In this study, we examined the performance of EUR-based BC PRS models in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women. Methods We generated PRSs based on data on EUR women from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). We tested the performance of the PRSs in a cohort of 2161 AJ women from Israel (1437 cases and 724 controls) from BCAC (BCAC cohort from Israel (BCAC-IL)). In addition, we tested the performance of these EUR-based BC PRSs, as well as the established 313-SNP EUR BC PRS, in an independent cohort of 181 AJ women from Hadassah Medical Center (HMC) in Israel. Results In the BCAC-IL cohort, the highest OR per 1 SD was 1.56 (±0.09). The OR for AJ women at the top 10% of the PRS distribution compared with the middle quintile was 2.10 (±0.24). In the HMC cohort, the OR per 1 SD of the EUR-based PRS that performed best in the BCAC-IL cohort was 1.58±0.27. The OR per 1 SD of the commonly used 313-SNP BC PRS was 1.64 (±0.28). Conclusions Extant EUR GWAS data can be used for generating PRSs that identify AJ women with markedly elevated risk of BC and therefore hold promise for improving BC risk assessment in AJ women.

AbstractBackgroundReproductive factors have been shown to be differentially associated with risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative breast cancer. However, their associations with intrinsic-like subtypes are less clear.MethodsAnalyses included up to 23 353 cases and 71 072 controls pooled from 31 population-based case-control or cohort studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium across 16 countries on 4 continents. Polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate the association between reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2–like, HER2-enriched–like, and triple-negative breast cancer) and by invasiveness. All statistical tests were 2-sided.ResultsCompared with nulliparous women, parous women had a lower risk of luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2–like, and HER2-enriched–like disease. This association was apparent only after approximately 10 years since last birth and became stronger with increasing time (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49 to 0.71; and OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.46 for multiparous women with luminal A-like tumors 20 to less than 25 years after last birth and 45 to less than 50 years after last birth, respectively). In contrast, parous women had a higher risk of triple-negative breast cancer right after their last birth (for multiparous women: OR = 3.12, 95% CI = 2.02 to 4.83) that was attenuated with time but persisted for decades (OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.34, for multiparous women 25 to less than 30 years after last birth). Older age at first birth (Pheterogeneity &lt; .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) and breastfeeding (Pheterogeneity &lt; .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) were associated with lower risk of triple-negative breast cancer but not with other disease subtypes. Younger age at menarche was associated with higher risk of all subtypes; older age at menopause was associated with higher risk of luminal A-like but not triple-negative breast cancer. Associations for in situ tumors were similar to luminal A-like.ConclusionsThis large and comprehensive study demonstrates a distinct reproductive risk factor profile for triple-negative breast cancer compared with other subtypes, with implications for the understanding of disease etiology and risk prediction.

AbstractEvidence for the human health effects of pesticides is needed to inform risk assessment. We studied the relationship between occupational insecticide use and risk of non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) by pooling data from nine case‐control studies participating in the InterLymph Consortium, including 7909 cases and 8644 controls from North America, the European Union and Australia. Insecticide use was coded using self‐report or expert assessment, for insecticide groups (eg, organophosphates, pyrethroids) and active ingredients (eg, malathion, permethrin). Associations with insecticides were estimated using logistic regression to produce odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all NHL and NHL subtypes, with adjustment for study site, demographic factors and use of other pesticides. Occupational insecticide use, overall, was not associated with risk of NHL. Use of organophosphate insecticides was associated with increased risk of all NHL and the subtype follicular lymphoma, and an association was found with diazinon, in particular (ever use: OR = 2.05, 95%CI: 1.24‐3.37). The carbamate insecticide, carbaryl, was associated with risk of all NHL, and the strongest associations were found with T‐cell NHL for ever‐use (OR = 2.44, 95%CI: 1.13‐5.28) and longer duration (>8 years vs never: OR = 2.90, 95%CI: 1.02‐8.25). There was no association of NHL with other broad groups of insecticides, including organochlorines and pyrethroids, and some inverse associations were estimated in relation to historical DDT use. Our findings contribute to the totality of evidence available to help inform risk decisions by public health and regulatory agencies of importance given continued, widespread use of organophosphate and carbamate insecticides.

Abstract BackgroundCopy number variants (CNVs) are pervasive in the human genome but potential disease associations with rare CNVs have not been comprehensively assessed in large datasets. We analysed rare CNVs in genes and non-coding regions for 86,788 breast cancer cases and 76,122 controls of European ancestry with genome-wide array data.ResultsGene burden tests detected the strongest association for deletions in BRCA1 (P= 3.7E-18). Nine other genes were associated with a p-value < 0.01 including known susceptibility genes CHEK2 (P= 0.0008), ATM (P= 0.002) and BRCA2 (P= 0.008). Outside the known genes we detected associations with p-values < 0.001 for either overall or subtype-specific breast cancer at nine deletion regions and four duplication regions. Three of the deletion regions were in established common susceptibility loci.ConclusionsThis is the first genome-wide analysis of rare CNVs in a large breast cancer case-control dataset. We detected associations with exonic deletions in established breast cancer susceptibility genes. We also detected suggestive associations with non-coding CNVs in known and novel loci with large effects sizes. Larger sample sizes will be required to reach robust levels of statistical significance.

Abstract We evaluated the joint associations between a new 313-variant PRS (PRS313) and questionnaire-based breast cancer risk factors for women of European ancestry, using 72 284 cases and 80 354 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Interactions were evaluated using standard logistic regression and a newly developed case-only method for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor status. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not find evidence that per-standard deviation PRS313 odds ratio differed across strata defined by individual risk factors. Goodness-of-fit tests did not reject the assumption of a multiplicative model between PRS313 and each risk factor. Variation in projected absolute lifetime risk of breast cancer associated with classical risk factors was greater for women with higher genetic risk (PRS313 and family history) and, on average, 17.5% higher in the highest vs lowest deciles of genetic risk. These findings have implications for risk prevention for women at increased risk of breast cancer.

AbstractPrevious transcriptome‐wide association studies (TWAS) have identified breast cancer risk genes by integrating data from expression quantitative loci and genome‐wide association studies (GWAS), but analyses of breast cancer subtype‐specific associations have been limited. In this study, we conducted a TWAS using gene expression data from GTEx and summary statistics from the hitherto largest GWAS meta‐analysis conducted for breast cancer overall, and by estrogen receptor subtypes (ER+ and ER−). We further compared associations with ER+ and ER− subtypes, using a case‐only TWAS approach. We also conducted multigene conditional analyses in regions with multiple TWAS associations. Two genes, STXBP4 and HIST2H2BA, were specifically associated with ER+ but not with ER– breast cancer. We further identified 30 TWAS‐significant genes associated with overall breast cancer risk, including four that were not identified in previous studies. Conditional analyses identified single independent breast‐cancer gene in three of six regions harboring multiple TWAS‐significant genes. Our study provides new information on breast cancer genetics and biology, particularly about genomic differences between ER+ and ER− breast cancer.

AbstractDespite the identification of acquired genetic mutations associated with Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (MPNs) there is a paucity of information relating to modifiable risk factors that may lead to these mutations. The MOSAICC Study was an exploratory case‐control study of polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and Myelofibrosis (MF). MPN patients and population controls (identified by General Practitioners) and non‐blood relative/friend controls were recruited from 2 large UK centers. Participants completed a telephone‐based questionnaire analyzed by unconditional logistic regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders. Risk factors for MPNs identified included increasing childhood household density [odds ratio (OR) 2.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16–5.62], low childhood socioeconomic status (OR 2.30, 95%CI 1.02–5.18) and high pack years smoking (OR 2.19, 95%CI 1.03–4.66) and current smoking restricted to JAK2 positive PV cases (OR 3.73, 95%CI 1.06–13.15). Obesity was linked with ET (OR 2.59, 95%CI 1.02–6.58) confirming results in previous cohort studies. Receipt of multiple CT scans was associated with a strongly increased risk of MPN although with wide confidence intervals (OR 5.38, 95%CI 1.67–17.3). Alcohol intake was inversely associated with risk of PV (OR 0.41, 95%CI 0.19–0.92) and ET (OR 0.48, 95%CI 0.24–0.98). The associations with childhood household density, high pack years smoking and alcohol were also seen in multivariate analysis. This is the largest case control study in MPNs to date and confirms the previously reported associations with obesity and cigarette smoking from cohort studies in addition to novel associations. In particular, the role of smoking and JAK2 mutation cases merits further evaluation.

Abstract Introduction The Classic Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (MPNs), characterised by an over production of one or more cells of the myeloid lineage, are classified into polycythaemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythaemia (ET) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). Despite the identification of numerous genetic mutations, a paucity of information relating to medical and lifestyle factors contributing to the aetiology of these diseases remains. Methods The MOSAICC Study was an exploratory case-control study of MPNs. MPN patients were recruited between two sites, Belfast and Southampton, in preparation for a planned UK-wide investigation. Population controls (identified by General Practitioners) and non-blood relative/friend controls were also recruited. Participants completed a telephone-based questionnaire seeking information on a range of medical, environmental, lifestyle and occupational risk factors. Risk factors were assessed using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders. Results Risk factors identified included smoking [≥25 pack years vs. never: odds ratio (OR) 3.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-7.87], increasing childhood household density [>2 vs <1 Child(ren)/room: OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.31-8.30], history of heart disease (OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.23-8.87), CT scans (≥3 vs. none: OR 4.92, 95% CI 1.55-15.67), having an implant (OR 10.77, 95% CI 1.01-3.10), and pig ownership (OR 5.92, 95% CI 1.17-29.92). Alcohol was associated with a reduced risk of MPNs (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28-0.88) as was home working on car exhausts (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.12-0.88), painting at home (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28-0.86) and short haul air travel (p for trend 0.012). Participants working in occupations with high exposure to environmental tobacco smoke had an excess risk of MPN (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.12-5.37). Work-based radiation and solvent exposure also appeared to increase risk of MPNs (p<0.05). Conclusions This exploratory study has confirmed a reported association between cigarette smoking and MPNs. It has identified some potential novel risk factors including work-based radiation and solvent exposure. The findings of this study need to be replicated in a larger, adequately powered, study in order to identify important risk factors for the classic MPNs. Conflict of Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments: The MOSAICC Study team acknowledges the support of the National Institute for Health Research, through the Northern Ireland Cancer Research Network (NICRN) and for Southampton the Central South Coast Cancer Network (CSCCN). The team thank those who have participated in the MOSAICC study and the personnel who assisted in the recruitment of patients. Disclosures Mesa: CTI Biopharma: Research Funding; Promedior: Research Funding; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation: Consultancy; Incyte Corporation: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding; NS Pharma: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding; Gilead: Research Funding.