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Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of “modifiable risk factors”, measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.

139 Background: C may enhance response to immune checkpoint inhibitors by promoting an immune-permissive microenvironment. COSMIC-021 (NCT03170960), a multinational phase 1b study, is evaluating the combination of C with A in various solid tumors. We report interim results from Cohort 6 in mCRPC. Methods: Eligible pts were required to have radiographic progression in soft tissue after enzalutamide and/or abiraterone, measurable disease, and an ECOG PS of 0 or 1. Prior chemotherapy for mCSPC was permitted. Pts received C 40 mg PO qd and A 1200 mg IV q3w. CT/MRI scans were performed q6w for 52w and q12w thereafter. Bone scans were performed q12w. The primary endpoint is ORR per RECIST 1.1. Other endpoints include safety, ORR per irRECIST, duration of response (DOR), PFS, and OS. Results: As of Oct 2019, 44 mCRPC pts were enrolled with a median follow-up of 10.6 mo (range 3.4+, 17.9). Median age was 70 y (range 49, 90), 50% had ECOG PS 1, 34% had visceral metastases, and 61% had extrapelvic lymph node metastases. 27% of pts had prior docetaxel and 52% had ≥2 prior novel hormonal therapies. The most common any grade TEAEs were fatigue (57%), nausea (48%), decreased appetite (45%), diarrhea (39%), PPE (32%), and vomiting (32%). One Grade 5 TRAE of dehydration was reported in a 90 y/o. Median duration of treatment was 5.3 mo. The ORR per RECIST 1.1 among all pts was 32% (2 CRs [4.5%] and 12 PRs [27%]); 21 (48%) pts had SD giving a disease control rate of 80% in all pts. One pt with initial PD per RECIST 1.1 had an irPR per irRECIST. ORR per RECIST 1.1 was 33% in 36 pts with high-risk clinical features (visceral and/or extrapelvic lymph node metastases). Median DOR for all pts with response per RECIST 1.1 was 8.3 mo (range 1.38+, 9.76+). In 12 responders with at least 1 post-baseline PSA evaluation, 8 (67%) had a PSA decline ≥50%. Conclusions: The combination of C+A had a tolerable safety profile and demonstrated clinically meaningful activity with durable responses in men with mCRPC. Given the encouraging activity in these pts, especially in those with visceral and/or extra pelvic lymph node metastases, further evaluation of C+A in men with mCRPC is being pursued. Clinical trial information: NCT03170960.

Background: Insight into type 5 long QT syndrome (LQT5) has been limited to case reports and small family series. Improved understanding of the clinical phenotype and genetic features associated with rare KCNE1 variants implicated in LQT5 was sought through an international multicenter collaboration. Methods: Patients with either presumed autosomal dominant LQT5 (N = 229) or the recessive Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome (N = 19) were enrolled from 22 genetic arrhythmia clinics and 4 registries from 9 countries. KCNE1 variants were evaluated for ECG penetrance (defined as QTc >460 ms on presenting ECG) and genotype-phenotype segregation. Multivariable Cox regression was used to compare the associations between clinical and genetic variables with a composite primary outcome of definite arrhythmic events, including appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shocks, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden cardiac death. Results: A total of 32 distinct KCNE1 rare variants were identified in 89 probands and 140 genotype positive family members with presumed LQT5 and an additional 19 Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome patients. Among presumed LQT5 patients, the mean QTc on presenting ECG was significantly longer in probands (476.9±38.6 ms) compared with genotype positive family members (441.8±30.9 ms, P <0.001). ECG penetrance for heterozygous genotype positive family members was 20.7% (29/140). A definite arrhythmic event was experienced in 16.9% (15/89) of heterozygous probands in comparison with 1.4% (2/140) of family members (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 11.6 [95% CI, 2.6–52.2]; P =0.001). Event incidence did not differ significantly for Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome patients relative to the overall heterozygous cohort (10.5% [2/19]; HR 1.7 [95% CI, 0.3–10.8], P =0.590). The cumulative prevalence of the 32 KCNE1 variants in the Genome Aggregation Database, which is a human database of exome and genome sequencing data from now over 140 000 individuals, was 238-fold greater than the anticipated prevalence of all LQT5 combined (0.238% vs 0.001%). Conclusions: The present study suggests that putative/confirmed loss-of-function KCNE1 variants predispose to QT prolongation, however, the low ECG penetrance observed suggests they do not manifest clinically in the majority of individuals, aligning with the mild phenotype observed for Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome patients.

Gastric cancer is an aggressive and heterogeneous malignancy that often varies in presentation and disease among racial and ethnic groups. The Alaska Native (AN) people have the highest incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer in North America. This study examines molecular markers in solid tumor samples from eighty-five AN gastric adenocarcinoma patients using next-generation sequencing, immunohistochemistry, and in situ hybridization analysis. AN patients have a low mutation burden with fewer somatic gene mutations in their tumors compared to other populations, with the most common mutation being TP53. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) was associated with 20% of AN gastric cancers, which is higher than the world average of 10%. The inflammation marker, cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), is highly expressed in patients with the lowest survival rates. Mismatch repair deficiency was present in 10% of AN patients and was associated with patients who were female, 50 years or older, gene mutations, and tumors in the distal stomach. Program death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) was expressed in 14% of AN patients who were more likely to have MMR deficiency, EBV-associated gastric cancers, and mutations in the PIK3CA gene, all of which have been linked to clinical response to PD-1 inhibitors. These studies suggest a portion of AN gastric cancer patients could be candidates for immunotherapy. Overall, this study highlights future avenues of investigation for clinical and translational studies, so that we can improve early detection and develop more effective treatments for AN patients.

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the first evidence-based guidelines on minimally invasive pancreas resection (MIPR) before and during the International Evidence-based Guidelines on Minimally Invasive Pancreas Resection (IG-MIPR) meeting in Miami (March 2019). Summary Background Data: MIPR has seen rapid development in the past decade. Promising outcomes have been reported by early adopters from high-volume centers. Subsequently, multicenter series as well as randomized controlled trials were reported; however, guidelines for clinical practice were lacking. Methods: The Scottisch Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) methodology was used, incorporating these 4 items: systematic reviews using PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases to answer clinical questions, whenever possible in PICO style, the GRADE approach for assessment of the quality of evidence, the Delphi method for establishing consensus on the developed recommendations, and the AGREE-II instrument for the assessment of guideline quality and external validation. The current guidelines are cosponsored by the International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association, the Americas Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association, the Asian-Pacific Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association, the European-African Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association, the European Association for Endoscopic Surgery, Pancreas Club, the Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgery, the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, and the Society of Surgical Oncology. Results: After screening 16,069 titles, 694 studies were reviewed, and 291 were included. The final 28 recommendations covered 6 topics; laparoscopic and robotic distal pancreatectomy, central pancreatectomy, pancreatoduodenectomy, as well as patient selection, training, learning curve, and minimal annual center volume required to obtain optimal outcomes and patient safety. Conclusion: The IG-MIPR using SIGN methodology give guidance to surgeons, hospital administrators, patients, and medical societies on the use and outcome of MIPR as well as the approach to be taken regarding this challenging type of surgery.

In observational studies, left ventricular mass (LVM) and structure are strong predictors of mortality and cardiovascular events. However, the effect of hypertension treatment on LVM reduction and its relation to subsequent outcomes is unclear, particularly at lower blood pressure (BP) targets. In an ancillary study of SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), where participants were randomly assigned to intensive BP control (target systolic BP target <120 mm Hg) versus standard BP control (<140 mm Hg), cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed at baseline and 18-month follow-up to measure: LVM, volumes, ejection fraction, and native T1 mapping for myocardial fibrosis. At baseline, 337 participants were examined (age: 64±9 years, 45% women); 300 completed the 18-month exam (153 intensive control and 147 standard control). In the intensive versus standard BP control group at 18 months, there was no difference in change in LVM (mean±SE =−2.7±0.5 g versus −2.3±0.7 g; P =0.368), ejection fraction, or native T1 ( P =0.79), but there was a larger decrease in LVM/end-diastolic volume ratio (−0.04±0.01 versus −0.01±0.01; P =0.002) a measure of concentric LV remodeling. There were fewer cardiovascular events in the intensive control group, but no significant association between the reduced events and change in LVM or any other cardiac magnetic resonance imaging measure. In SPRINT-HEART, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no significant between-group differences in LVM, function, or myocardial T1 at 18-month follow-up. These results suggests that mediators other than these LV measures contribute to the improved cardiovascular outcomes with intensive BP control.

Abstract Background: Late recurrence is characteristic of ER+ breast cancers. Despite an apparently effective adjuvant endocrine therapy, many breast cancers recur years after their initial endocrine treatment. Why some tumors recur early (&lt;3 years) and some recur later (&gt;5 years) is poorly understood. If systemic endocrine therapies killed all cells, recurrence would reflect only the appearance of new disease. Thus, we hypothesized that cells that survive and lie dormant may be driven, in part, by altered wiring of their cell death signaling. We, therefore, studied how cell death signaling is differentially wired in primary tumors that will recur early versus those that will recur later. Method: Genes involved in apoptosis, autophagy, ferroptosis, necrosis, and pyroptosis were identified from KEGG to initiate network feature analysis of gene expression data from public and our first in-house gene expression dataset. Data were collected from ER+ breast cancer pre-endocrine treatment samples with up to 20 years follow-up. Publicly available datasets used were GSE6532, GSE2034, GSE7390, GSE17705, GSE12093, and TCGA. We applied our Knowledge-fused Differential Dependency Network (KDDN) analysis tool to the public datasets; KDDN has provided powerful new insights into signaling in breast and other cancers. Common gene-gene interactions (edges) predicted in at least two different datasets were extracted from all KDDN analyses results. To strengthen the relevance of these features, predicted network edges that represent known protein-protein interactions (PPI) were identified from the STRING database, and these edges were noted in the signaling graphs. Final network graphs were constructed using the common edges from all overlaid networks. We conducted IPA analysis on all nodes in the final network and selected those incorporating network hubs. We took a similar approach to our second in-house dataset, which we used for independent testing. Here, patients were included if their tumor exhibited an initial reduction in volume of at least 40% by four months in response to neo-adjuvant Letrozole. Patients were then classified into two groups during follow-up of up to 3.7 years: i) initial tumor size reduction followed by continued response (expected to recur late); ii) initial reduction followed by tumor regrowth (expected to recur early). KDDN analysis was performed on pretreatment samples from these two groups and a network created annotated with PPI information. Results: MAPK8 and CYCS (Molecular Mechanisms of Cancer, p=1.58E-52), TNFRSF1A Neuroinflammation Signaling Pathway, p=1.26E-54), RELA, and NFKB1 (Colorectal Cancer Metastasis Signaling, p=7.94E-35), were identified as hubs. Hubs may be critical signaling components driving the differences between tumors that will become dormant and recur late. Connections between SLC25A6 and SQSTM1 (p = 0.008), BIRC2 and GABARAP (p = 0.021) in the early group, and AKT3 and IRS2 (p = 0.014) in the late group, were shared between the two final networks. With longer follow-up time on the second in-house dataset, we will better define the two groups and identify additional common phenotype specific gene-gene interactions. Citation Format: Clarke R, Dixon M, Jin L, Pearce D, Turnbull A, Selli C, Hu R, Zwart A, Wang Y, Xuan J, Sengupta S, Sims A, Liu MC. Local network topology differences between early and late recurrence in ER+ breast cancers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-04-17.