Scott, Christopher G.

Objective: Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Ceramide scores have been associated with adverse outcomes in patients with established coronary artery disease. The prognostic value of ceramide score has not been assessed in the general population. We tested the hypothesis that ceramide scores are associated with major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in a community-based cohort with average coronary artery disease burden at enrollment. Approach and results: In a prospective community-based cohort, we performed passive follow-up using a record linkage system to ascertain the composite outcome of MACE, defined as acute myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization (bypass grafting or percutaneous intervention), stroke, or death. Ceramides were analyzed as log-transformed continuous variables, ratios or scores, and quartiles with adjustment for confounders. We analyzed 1131 subjects, 52% females, mean age±(SD) 64±9 years. After a median follow-up of 13.3 years (Q1, 12.7; Q3, 14.4), 486 patients experienced a MACE: myocardial infarction (80), coronary artery bypass surgery (34), percutaneous coronary intervention (62), stroke (94), and all-cause death (362). Ceramide ratios were significantly associated with MACE independently of LDL-c (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and conventional coronary artery disease risk factors. Those in the highest quartile of ceramide score had nearly 1.5-fold risk of MACE, hazard ratio, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.12–1.92). There was a dose-response association across quartiles of ceramide ratios and MACE. Conclusions: Elevated ceramide score is a robust predictor of cardiovascular disease and MACE in the community. The risk conferred by the ceramide score has a dose-response behavior and is independent of conventional risk factors.

Abstract Background: It is not known whether modifiable lifestyle factors that predict survival after invasive breast cancer differ by subtype. Methods: We analyzed data for 121,435 women diagnosed with breast cancer from 67 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium with 16,890 deaths (8,554 breast cancer specific) over 10 years. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between risk factors and 10-year all-cause mortality and breast cancer–specific mortality overall, by estrogen receptor (ER) status, and by intrinsic-like subtype. Results: There was no evidence of heterogeneous associations between risk factors and mortality by subtype (Padj > 0.30). The strongest associations were between all-cause mortality and BMI ≥30 versus 18.5–25 kg/m2 [HR (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19 (1.06–1.34)]; current versus never smoking [1.37 (1.27–1.47)], high versus low physical activity [0.43 (0.21–0.86)], age ≥30 years versus <20 years at first pregnancy [0.79 (0.72–0.86)]; >0–<5 years versus ≥10 years since last full-term birth [1.31 (1.11–1.55)]; ever versus never use of oral contraceptives [0.91 (0.87–0.96)]; ever versus never use of menopausal hormone therapy, including current estrogen–progestin therapy [0.61 (0.54–0.69)]. Similar associations with breast cancer mortality were weaker; for example, 1.11 (1.02–1.21) for current versus never smoking. Conclusions: We confirm associations between modifiable lifestyle factors and 10-year all-cause mortality. There was no strong evidence that associations differed by ER status or intrinsic-like subtype. Impact: Given the large dataset and lack of evidence that associations between modifiable risk factors and 10-year mortality differed by subtype, these associations could be cautiously used in prognostication models to inform patient-centered care.

Variables in cardiology fellowship applications have not been objectively analyzed against applicants' subsequent clinical performance. We investigated possible correlations in a retrospective cohort study of 65 cardiology fellows at the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Minn) who began 2 years of clinical training from July 2007 through July 2013. Application variables included the strength of comparative statements in recommendation letters and the authors' academic ranks, membership status in the Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society, awards earned, volunteer activities, United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, advanced degrees, publications, and completion of a residency program ranked in the top 6 in the United States. The outcome was clinical performance as measured by a mean of faculty evaluation scores during clinical training. The overall mean evaluation score was 4.07 ± 0.18 (scale, 1–5). After multivariable analysis, evaluation scores were associated with Alpha Omega Alpha designation (β=0.13; 95% CI, 0.01–0.25; P=0.03), residency program reputation (β=0.13; 95% CI, 0.05–0.21; P=0.004), and strength of comparative statements in recommendation letters (β=0.08; 95% CI, 0.01–0.15; P=0.02), particularly in letters from residency program directors (β=0.05; 95% CI, 0.01–0.08; P=0.009). Objective factors to consider in the cardiology fellowship application include Alpha Omega Alpha membership, residency program reputation, and comparative statements from residency program directors.

Abstract High alcohol intake and breast density increase breast cancer (BC) risk, but their interrelationship is unknown. We examined whether volumetric density modifies and/or mediates the alcohol-BC association. BC cases (n = 2233) diagnosed from 2006 to 2013 in the San Francisco Bay area had screening mammograms 6 or more months before diagnosis; controls (n = 4562) were matched on age, mammogram date, race or ethnicity, facility, and mammography machine. Logistic regression was used to estimate alcohol-BC associations adjusted for age, body mass index, and menopause; interaction terms assessed modification. Percent mediation was quantified as the ratio of log (odds ratios [ORs]) from models with and without density measures. Alcohol consumption was associated with increased BC risk (2-sided Ptrend = .004), as were volumetric percent density (OR = 1.45 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36 to 1.56) and dense volume (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.24 to 1.37). Breast density did not modify the alcohol-BC association (2-sided P > .10 for all). Dense volume mediated 25.0% (95% CI = 5.5% to 44.4%) of the alcohol-BC association (2-sided P = .01), suggesting alcohol may partially increase BC risk by increasing fibroglandular tissue.

AbstractBackgroundA subset of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Practice guidelines endorse use of a risk calculator, which requires entry of left atrial (LA) diameter. However, American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) guidelines recommend the use of LA volume index (LAVI) for routine quantification of LA size. The aims of this study were to (a) develop a model to estimate LA diameter from LAVI and (b) evaluate whether substitution of measured LA diameter by estimated LA diameter derived from LAVI reclassifies HCM‐SCD risk.MethodsThe study cohort was comprised of 500 randomly selected HCM patients who underwent transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). LA diameter and LAVI were measured offline using digital clips from TTE. Linear regression models were developed to estimate LA diameter from LAVI. A European Society of Cardiology endorsed equation estimated SCD risk, which was measured using LA diameter and estimated LA diameter derived from LAVI.ResultsThe mean LAVI was 48.5 ± 18.8 mL/m2. The derived LA diameter was 45.1 mm (SD: 5.5 mm), similar to the measured LA diameter (45.1 mm, SD: 7.1 mm). Median SCD risk at 5 years estimated by measured LA diameter was 2.22% (interquartile range (IQR): 1.39, 3.56), while median risk calculated by estimated LA diameter was 2.18% (IQR: 1.44, 3.52). 476/500 (95%) patients maintained the same risk classification regardless of whether the measured or estimated LA diameter was used.ConclusionsSubstitution of measured LA diameter by estimated LA diameter in the HCM‐SCD calculator did not reclassify risk.

Abstract Background: Clinical use of breast cancer risk prediction requires simplified models. We evaluate a simplified version of the validated Rosner–Colditz model and add percent mammographic density (MD) and polygenic risk score (PRS), to assess performance from ages 45–74. We validate using the Mayo Mammography Health Study (MMHS). Methods: We derived the model in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) based on: MD, 77 SNP PRS and a questionnaire score (QS; lifestyle and reproductive factors). A total of 2,799 invasive breast cancer cases were diagnosed from 1990–2000. MD (using Cumulus software) and PRS were assessed in a nested case–control study. We assess model performance using this case–control dataset and evaluate 10-year absolute breast cancer risk. The prospective MMHS validation dataset includes 21.8% of women age <50, and 434 incident cases identified over 10 years of follow-up. Results: In the NHS, MD has the highest odds ratio (OR) for 10-year risk prediction: ORper SD = 1.48 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31–1.68], followed by PRS, ORper SD = 1.37 (95% CI: 1.21–1.55) and QS, ORper SD = 1.25 (95% CI: 1.11–1.41). In MMHS, the AUC adjusted for age + MD + QS 0.650; for age + MD + QS + PRS 0.687, and the NRI was 6% in cases and 16% in controls. Conclusion: A simplified assessment of QS, MD, and PRS performs consistently to discriminate those at high 10-year breast cancer risk. Impact: This simplified model provides accurate estimation of 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer that can be used in a clinical setting to identify women who may benefit from chemopreventive intervention. See related commentary by Tehranifar et al., p. 587

Abstract Objective Determine if information regarding hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) can be accurately retrieved from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) reports using natural language processing (NLP). Background CMR imaging is used for diagnosis and risk stratification of HCM. Manual annotation of information from CMR is time-consuming. NLP is an artificial intelligence method for automating extraction of information from narrative text. Methods We identified 200 HCM patients who had CMR reports from 1998 to 2018. These patients were randomly allocated into training (100 patients with 185 CMR reports) and testing sets (100 patients with 206 reports). An NLP system with 2 tiers was developed; the first extracted information regarding HCM diagnosis while second extracted categorical or numeric concepts for HCM classification. NLP performance was compared with gold-standard manual annotation. Results NLP algorithms achieved very high performance across all concepts with mean positive predictive value (PPV) = 0.96. An outlier was the performance for abstracting the presence of an apical pouch from CMR reports, which had noticeably lower PPV= 0.78 which be attributed to the low number of cases with this finding. Conclusions The algorithms developed can be translated to clinical decision support systems to increase efficiency and contribute to improved quality of care. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Other. Main funding source(s): Study supported by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute of National Institutes of Health (K01HL124045), the Mayo Clinic Center for Clinical and Translational Science (CCaTS), and the Mayo Clinic K2R award. Content is solely the responsibility of authors and does not necessarily represent official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Abstract Background There is a paucity of data about the prevalence and natural history of mitral annular calcification (MAC). Purposes In a large cohort of patients undergoing clinically-indicated echocardiography, we aimed to evaluate the prevalence and the natural history of MAC, and the frequency of associated mitral valve dysfunction (MVD). Methods Retrospective review of all patients who underwent echocardiographic evaluation at our institution between January 1st and December 31st 2015. The patients were stratified into 3 groups: MAC with MVD, MAC without MVD, no MAC. MVD was defined as moderate or greater mitral regurgitation (MR) or stenosis (MS). The 3 groups were compared for baseline clinical and echocardiographic characteristics and all-cause mortality during follow-up. Results Of 24,415 evaluated patients, 5478 (22%) had MAC. Patients with MAC were older (75±10 vs. 60±16 years, p<0.01) and more often female (46% vs. 43%, p<0.01). MVD was more frequently observed in patients with MAC (16% vs. 7%, p<0.01); moderate or greater MR was found in 10% of patients with MAC vs. 6% without MAC (p<0.01) and MS in 7% vs. 0.5% (p<0.01). In patients with MAC, those with MVD were more often female and more frequently had creatinine ≥2mg/dl and moderate or greater aortic stenosis (AS) than those without MVD (Fig. A). Kaplan-Meier survivals at 1 year were 75% in patients with MAC and MVD, 87% in those with MAC without MVD, and 92% in those without MAC (Fig B). Adjusted for age, sex, diabetes, creatinine ≥2 mg/dl, coronary artery disease, left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, and AS, MAC was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio1.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.3–1.5, p<0.01); combined MAC and MVD was associated with the highest mortality during follow-up of 2.5±1.8 years. Conclusion In a large cohort of patients undergoing echocardiographic evaluation, the prevalence of MAC was 22%. MV dysfunction was more than twice as prevalent in patients with MAC as without. Patients with MAC had higher all-cause mortality than patients without MAC. Among patients with MAC and mitral valvular dysfunction, adjusted mortality was two-fold higher compared to those without MAC. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Abstract Background Prevalence of calcific mitral stenosis (MS) increases with age. Mitral valve interventions for calcific MS are often delayed until symptoms are severely limiting because the natural history of calcific MS and its relation to cardiac symptoms or comorbidities have not been well assessed. Objectives We assessed the prevalence of symptoms, comorbidities and determinants of all-cause mortality in patients with severe calcific MS. Methods We retrospectively investigated adults with echocardiographic isolated severe MS, defined as mitral valve area (MVA by the continuity equation) ≤1.5 cm2, from July 2003 to December 2017. Among them, calcific MS was identified as obstruction of left ventricular inflow due to degenerative calcification of the mitral annulus using echocardiography and, whenever available, operative findings including histopathological examination. Inactivity was defined as requirement for assistance with activities of daily living. Follow up was obtained by review of medical records. Results Of 491 patients with isolated severe MS, calcific MS was present in 200 (41%; age 78±11 years, 18% men, 32% with atrial fibrillation). Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was 5.1±1.7 and 14 (7%) were inactive. MVA and transmitral gradient (TMG) were 1.26±0.19 cm2 and 8.1±3.8 mmHg, respectively. Symptoms were present at baseline in 120 (60%) including dyspnea in 97, chest discomfort in 12, syncope in 3, lower extremity edema in 3, thrombosis in 3 and fatigue in 2. Of them, mitral valve interventions including surgical or transcatheter mitral valve replacement and mitral valve bypass were performed in 27 (23%): within 1 year after index TTE in 23 (19%) and at 2, 4, 5 and 6 years in 1 each. Of 80 patients without symptoms at index TTE, 20 (25%) developed symptoms at mean 2.9±3.2 years and interventions were performed in 5 (6%). Of 168 who did not receive interventions, 60 (36%) did not develop symptoms during follow up, 58 (35%) were considered to have moderate MS, 46 (27%) were not offered surgery because of high risk due to advanced age, multiple comorbidities or heavy calcification, and 2 (1%) declined interventions. During follow-up of 2.8±3.0 years, Kaplan-Meier survival at 1 and 3 years without intervention were 72% and 52%, respectively (Fig. A). Inactivity, CCI >5, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50%, TMG ≥8 mmHg (the mean TMG) and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) ≥50 mmHg were independently associated with mortality (Fig. B). Symptoms were associated with referral for interventions (OR 3.43, 95% CI 1.22–9.65; p=0.019), but not with mortality. Conclusion Patients with isolated severe calcific MS had a high burden of comorbidities and had high mortality without intervention. Symptoms were common (60%), but were not associated with mortality. TMG ≥8 mmHg, RVSP ≥50 mmHg, LVEF<50%, CCI >5 and inactivity were independently associated with mortality. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Abstract Background Transmitral gradient (TMG) is highly dependent on hemodynamic state, leading to discordance between TMG and mitral valve area (MVA). The effect of heart rate (HR) and stroke volume (SV) on TMG among patients with mitral stenosis (MS) is poorly understood. Purposes We aimed to (1) develop a formula for projected TMG (proTMG) for assessment of MS severity under varying hemodynamics; (2) assess the prognostic value of proTMG in patients with MS. Methods All patients evaluated for suspected MS without ≥moderate other valve disorder at our tertiary center between 2001 and 2017 were analyzed. Projected TMG is the expected gradient under normal flow (SV 80–94 ml and HR 60–79 bpm), and was modeled based on the observed impact of HR and SV on TMG by multiple regression analysis. The data were randomly split (2:1) into training and testing sets. The improvement in agreement between MVA and proTMG was evaluated. Composite cardiac events including all-cause death and mitral valve interventions were compared according to TMG grade using TMG and proTMG. Severe and moderate MS were defined as MVA ≤1.5 cm2 and 1.5–2.0 cm2 respectively, by the continuity equation. MVA ≤1.0 cm2 was considered as very severe MS. Results Of 4973 patients with suspected MS (age 73±12 years, 33% male), severe MS was present in 437 (9%, including 98 with very severe MS) and moderate MS in 934 (19%). In 838 patients with normal HR and SV, very severe, severe and moderate MS corresponded to TMG ≥12 mmHg, ≥6 mmHg and 4–6 mmHg, respectively. In the training set (n=3315), the median [interquartile range] of HR and SV were 70 [61–80] bpm and 97 [83–113] mL in men (n=1120), and 72 [63–82] bpm and 84 [71–97] mL in women (n=2195), respectively. The impact of HR and SV on TMG for men and women were 0.07 and 0.08 mmHg per 1 bpm increase in HR (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06–0.07 and 0.07–0.08), and 0.03 and 0.05 mmHg per 1 mL increase in SV (95% CI 0.03–0.03 and 0.04–0.05), respectively. Therefore, the final formula to calculate proTMG was: proTMG=TMG-0.07(HR-70)-0.03(SV-97) in men and proTMG=TMG-0.08(HR-72)-0.05(SV-84) in women. In the testing set (n=1658), the proTMG (kappa=0.63, 95% CI 0.60–0.66) had better agreement with MS severity by MVA than TMG (kappa=0.28, 95% CI 0.24–0.32). To explore the prevalence of patients reclassified using proTMG, in 98 with TMG ≥12 mmHg, proTMG remained ≥6 mmHg. Of 657 with TMG 6–12 mmHg, proTMG remained ≥6 mmHg in 356 (54%), and decreased to <6 mmHg in 301 (46%). In patients with TMG 6–12 mmHg, proTMG ≥6 mmHg was associated with higher probability of cardiac events compared with <6 mmHg during follow-up of 2.8±3.1 years (Figure). Conclusion We propose a novel concept of projected TMG defined as the expected transmitral gradient at normal HR and SV levels. This improved the diagnostic yield of Doppler TMG measurements for MS severity assessment and identified a low-risk subset of patients with elevated TMG due to high HR or SV. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None