Jensen, Matthew R.

Importance Benign breast disease (BBD) comprises approximately 75% of breast biopsy diagnoses. Surgical biopsy specimens diagnosed as nonproliferative (NP), proliferative disease without atypia (PDWA), or atypical hyperplasia (AH) are associated with increasing breast cancer (BC) risk; however, knowledge is limited on risk associated with percutaneously diagnosed BBD. Objectives To estimate BC risk associated with BBD in the percutaneous biopsy era irrespective of surgical biopsy. Design, Setting, and Participants In this retrospective cohort study, BBD biopsy specimens collected from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2013, from patients with BBD at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, were reviewed by 2 pathologists masked to outcomes. Women were followed up from 6 months after biopsy until censoring, BC diagnosis, or December 31, 2021. Exposure Benign breast disease classification and multiplicity by pathology panel review. Main Outcomes The main outcome was diagnosis of BC overall and stratified as ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) or invasive BC. Risk for presence vs absence of BBD lesions was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Risk in patients with BBD compared with female breast cancer incidence rates from the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program were estimated. Results Among 4819 female participants, median age was 51 years (IQR, 43-62 years). Median follow-up was 10.9 years (IQR, 7.7-14.2 years) for control individuals without BC vs 6.6 years (IQR, 3.7-10.1 years) for patients with BC. Risk was higher in the cohort with BBD than in SEER data: BC overall (standard incidence ratio [SIR], 1.95; 95% CI, 1.76-2.17), invasive BC (SIR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.37-1.78), and DCIS (SIR, 3.10; 95% CI, 2.54-3.77). The SIRs increased with increasing BBD severity (1.42 [95% CI, 1.19-1.71] for NP, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.88-2.54] for PDWA, and 3.91 [95% CI, 2.97-5.14] for AH), comparable to surgical cohorts with BBD. Risk also increased with increasing lesion multiplicity (SIR: 2.40 [95% CI, 2.06-2.79] for ≥3 foci of NP, 3.72 [95% CI, 2.31-5.99] for ≥3 foci of PDWA, and 5.29 [95% CI, 3.37-8.29] for ≥3 foci of AH). Ten-year BC cumulative incidence was 4.3% for NP, 6.6% for PDWA, and 14.6% for AH vs an expected population cumulative incidence of 2.9%. Conclusions and Relevance In this contemporary cohort study of women diagnosed with BBD in the percutaneous biopsy era, overall risk of BC was increased vs the general population (DCIS and invasive cancer combined), similar to that in historical BBD cohorts. Development and validation of pathologic classifications including both BBD severity and multiplicity may enable improved BC risk stratification.

PURPOSE Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms improve breast cancer detection on mammography, but their contribution to long-term risk prediction for advanced and interval cancers is unknown. METHODS We identified 2,412 women with invasive breast cancer and 4,995 controls matched on age, race, and date of mammogram, from two US mammography cohorts, who had two-dimensional full-field digital mammograms performed 2-5.5 years before cancer diagnosis. We assessed Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System density, an AI malignancy score (1-10), and volumetric density measures. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs), 95% CIs, adjusted for age and BMI, and C-statistics (AUC) to describe the association of AI score with invasive cancer and its contribution to models with breast density measures. Likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) and bootstrapping methods were used to compare model performance. RESULTS On mammograms between 2-5.5 years prior to cancer, a one unit increase in AI score was associated with 20% greater odds of invasive breast cancer (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.22; AUC, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.64) and was similarly predictive of interval (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.27; AUC, 0.63) and advanced cancers (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.31; AUC, 0.64) and in dense (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.22; AUC, 0.66) breasts. AI score improved prediction of all cancer types in models with density measures ( P LRT values < .001); discrimination improved for advanced cancer (ie, AUC for dense volume increased from 0.624 to 0.679, Δ AUC 0.065, P = .01) but did not reach statistical significance for interval cancer. CONCLUSION AI imaging algorithms coupled with breast density independently contribute to long-term risk prediction of invasive breast cancers, in particular, advanced cancer.

Abstract Background: Women with benign breast disease (BBD) are at increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Classic studies based on film-based mammographic screening and pathology diagnosis of surgical biopsies conducted in the 1980s established a hierarchy of increasing BC risk: non-proliferative (NP) BBD, proliferative BBD without atypia (PDWA) and atypical hyperplasia (AH). Given changes in epidemiological BC risk factors and introduction of percutaneous core needle biopsy (CNB) in mid-1990s, and later, digital mammography, we hypothesized that the patient characteristics and relative frequency of BBD diagnoses have changed over time. Accordingly, we performed a longitudinal analysis of the frequency of patient characteristics and BBD diagnoses in the Mayo BBD cohort. Methods: Utilizing the Mayo Clinic Surgical and Pathology Indices, women ages 18 to 85 who had a BBD biopsy between 1/1/67 and 12/31/13 were identified. Breast pathologists reviewed biopsies masked to diagnoses of incident BC diagnosed in follow-up. Demographic characteristics and BC events were obtained by query of institutional data sources and participant surveys. Trends were evaluated for the following eras: 1: pre-mammogram (1967-1981), 2: pre-CNB (1982-1992), 3: CNB Transition (1993-2001), and 4: CNB (2002-2013). Demographics were formally compared across eras using chi-square tests for categorical variables and analyses of variance (ANOVAs) for continuous variables. Results: From 1967-2013, the cohort includes 19,582 unique women with BBD. The frequency of CNB increased from eras 1-4: 0.04%, 0.6%, 51.3 %, and 88.9%, respectively. Mean age at BBD diagnosis was younger in era 1 (48.0 years) vs eras 2-4 (53.2, 52.0, and 51.8, respectively, p&lt;0.001). The percentage of biopsies diagnosed as PDWA increased from era 1-4 (25.7%, 34.3%, 35.2%, 46.2%, p&lt;0.001), as did the percentage with AH (2.4%, 5.1%, 8.6%, 12.3%, p&lt;0.001). Over eras 1-4, the percentages of women with a strong family history of BC increased (9.9%, 12.7%, 17.1%, and 29.0%, p&lt;0.001) as did mean BMI (24.8, 26.4, 27.4, and 28.6, p&lt;0.001). With a median follow-up of 10.9 years, 1,719 breast cancers have developed, with increasing proportion of noninvasive (DCIS-only) disease across eras 1-4: 15.0%, 21.1%, 21.2%, and 33.2%, p&lt; 0.001. Conclusions: Analysis of this large, single institution BBD cohort for the 46 year period 1967-2013 demonstrates that BC risk factors among BBD patients has changed over time, with subjects demonstrating increasing age, BMI, and family history, and that the percentages of BBD classified as PDWA and AH have increased. Impact on BC risk will be further investigated. Citation Format: Amy Degnim, Karthik Ghosh, Jodi M Carter, Robert A Vierkant, Matthew R Jensen, Stacey J Winham, Tanya L Hoskin, Marlene Frost, Teresa M Allers, Denise L Gehling, Mindy J Kern, Laura M Pacheco-Spann, Celine M Vachon, Derek C Radisky, Daniel W Visscher, Mark E Sherman. Benign breast disease: Temporal trends from 1967 to 2013 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2020 San Antonio Breast Cancer Virtual Symposium; 2020 Dec 8-11; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS7-11.

Abstract Background: Women with benign breast disease (BBD) experience an increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Histologic classification of BBD, as non-proliferative disease (NP), proliferative disease without atypia (PDWA) or atypical hyperplasia (AH), stratifies groups of patients into progressively higher categories of BC risk. However, this classification does not comprehensively assess the proliferative state of the epithelium throughout the biopsy. In addition, while AH is considered the most high-risk class of BBD, it is not always a highly proliferative lesion; atypical ductal lesions may reflect focal cytologic and architectural changes. We evaluated the association of an alternative classification of BBD severity and BC risk based on subjective grading of: 1) the maximal degree of epithelial proliferation and 2) multifocality of epithelial proliferation. Methods: Pathologists reviewed biopsies from participants aged 18 to 85 years in the Mayo BBD cohort (2002-2013), masked to BC outcomes, ascertained via questionnaires, tumor registry data and medical record review. Biopsies were classified as NP, PDWA or AH and semi-quantitatively scored for: 1) maximal degree of epithelial proliferation within a focus (DP) (0-3; none to severe) and 2) multifocality of proliferation (MP) (0-3; none to multiple foci). DP and MP scores were also summed to give a DP+MP score (0-6). Associations of DP and MP with BC risk were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, adjusting for age at BBD biopsy. Women were followed from date of initial biopsy to date of BC, death or last follow-up. Results: Of the 1529 assessable biopsies, 544 (35.6%) were classified as NP, 708 (46.3%) as PDWA and 277 (18.1%) as AH. Both DP and MP scores had significant positive correlation with increasing BBD severity (DP: r=0.51, p&lt; 0.001; MP: r=0.52, p&lt; 0.001). Mean (SD) DP scores were 0.6 (0.6) for NP, 1.6 (0.9) for PDWA, and 1.8 (0.7) for AH (ANOVA p&lt;0.001). Mean (SD) for MP scores were 0.6 (0.6) for NP, 1.4 (0.8) for PDWA, and 1.8 (0.8) for AH (ANOVA p&lt;0.001). Mean (SD) for DP+MP scores were 1.2 (1.2) for NP, 2.9 (1.5) for PDWA, and 3.6 (1.2) for AH (ANOVA p&lt;0.001). With median follow-up of 8.8 years for controls and 5.3 years for cases, 10.6% of the women in the cohort developed BC. Compared to those with DP scores of 0, women with DP scores of 3 had significantly increased BC risk (HR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.74, p=0.003). MP was associated with a non-significant increase in BC risk for scores of 3 versus 0 (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.97,1.49, p=0.11). DP+MP scores of 6 conferred the highest BC risk (HR (score 6 vs. 0): 1.62, 95% CI 1.18,2.21, p=0.02). Results did not substantively differ after adjusting for BBD severity as NP, PDWA or AH. Conclusions: In this preliminary analysis within the Mayo BBD cohort, both proliferative degree (DP) and multifocality (MP) scores were correlated with histologic severity of BBD. DP and DP+MP scores were each associated with increased BC risk. We conclude that improved characterization of epithelial proliferation in BBD biopsies may enable refined prediction of individual BC risk. Citation Format: Jodi M Carter, Matthew R Jensen, Robert A Vierkant, Stacey J Winham, Tanya L Hoskin, Marlene Frost, Karthik Ghosh, Derek C Radisky, Amy C Degnim, Mark E Sherman. Epithelial proliferation score as an independent breast cancer risk predictor in benign breast disease [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2020 San Antonio Breast Cancer Virtual Symposium; 2020 Dec 8-11; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD10-10.

Abstract High alcohol intake and breast density increase breast cancer (BC) risk, but their interrelationship is unknown. We examined whether volumetric density modifies and/or mediates the alcohol-BC association. BC cases (n = 2233) diagnosed from 2006 to 2013 in the San Francisco Bay area had screening mammograms 6 or more months before diagnosis; controls (n = 4562) were matched on age, mammogram date, race or ethnicity, facility, and mammography machine. Logistic regression was used to estimate alcohol-BC associations adjusted for age, body mass index, and menopause; interaction terms assessed modification. Percent mediation was quantified as the ratio of log (odds ratios [ORs]) from models with and without density measures. Alcohol consumption was associated with increased BC risk (2-sided Ptrend = .004), as were volumetric percent density (OR = 1.45 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36 to 1.56) and dense volume (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.24 to 1.37). Breast density did not modify the alcohol-BC association (2-sided P &gt; .10 for all). Dense volume mediated 25.0% (95% CI = 5.5% to 44.4%) of the alcohol-BC association (2-sided P = .01), suggesting alcohol may partially increase BC risk by increasing fibroglandular tissue.

Abstract Over one million women in the United States receive biopsy diagnoses of benign breast disease (BBD) each year, which confer a 1.5–4.0-fold increase in breast cancer risk. Studies in the general population suggest that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents (NSAID) lower breast cancer risk; however, associations among women with BBD are unknown. We assessed whether NSAID use among women diagnosed with BBD is associated with lower breast cancer risk. Participants included 3,080 women (mean age = 50.3 ± 13.5 years) in the Mayo BBD surgical biopsy cohort diagnosed between January 1, 1992 and December 31, 2001 who completed breast cancer risk factor questionnaires that assessed NSAID use, and whose biopsies underwent detailed pathology review, masked to outcome. Women were followed from date of BBD biopsy to breast cancer diagnosis (main outcome) or censoring (death, prophylactic mastectomy, reduction mammoplasty, lobular carcinoma in situ or last contact). Median follow-up time was 16.4 ± 6.0 years. Incident breast cancer was diagnosed among 312 women over a median follow-up of 9.9 years. Regular non-aspirin NSAID use was associated with lower breast cancer risk [HR = 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.46–0.85; P = 0.002] with trends of lower risk (highest tertiles of use vs. nonuse) for greater number of years used [HR = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.31–0.97; Ptrend = 0.003), days used per month (HR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.33–0.80; Ptrend = 0.001) and lifetime number of doses taken (HR = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.31–0.89; Ptrend = 0.003). We conclude that nonaspirin NSAID use is associated with statistically significant lower breast cancer risk after a BBD biopsy, including a dose–response effect, suggesting a potential role for NSAIDs in breast cancer prevention among patients with BBD.

Abstract Background: Alcohol intake and breast density are established risk factors for breast cancer (BC). A few studies suggest breast density is on the causal pathway between alcohol and BC but the literature is not consistent. We examine the interrelationship between alcohol, volumetric breast density and BC risk, specifically whether there is a stronger alcohol and BC association among women with dense breasts and/or whether breast density mediates the alcohol and BC association. Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study within the San Francisco Mammography Registry consisting of four breast screening centers. From 2006-2013, through linkages with the California cancer registry, we identified 2572 women diagnosed with BC who had screening mammograms performed at least six months prior to diagnosis. Controls (5119) were matched to cases on age, date of earliest mammogram, race/ethnicity, facility, and mammography machine. We obtained the raw format of digital mammograms on average 3.1 (standard deviation (SD) =1.7) years prior to diagnosis or corresponding date for controls. We ascertained usual daily alcohol intake and other risk factors from a clinical questionnaire at time of mammography. We obtained BI-RADS density from clinical records and used VolparaTM to assess volumetric percent density, dense volume and non-dense volume from the mammogram. We examined the associations of daily alcohol intake (none, one or less, two or more drinks per day) and volumetric density phenotypes (per 1 SD) with BC risk using logistic regression (odds ratios, OR; 95% confidence intervals, CI; and trend tests). We examined deviation from multiplicative interaction using chi-squared tests. We evaluated mediation of the alcohol and BC association by volumetric density measures using logistic regression to estimate the association between alcohol use and BC with and without adjustment for density measures. Percent mediation was estimated using the differences in the log OR estimates from the two models. All models were adjusted for age, 1/BMI and menopause and matching factors. Analyses were also stratified by menopausal status. Results: Alcohol intake was available on 2233 cases and 4562 controls, 88% of those eligible. BC cases and controls had similar age (57.2 years (SD=11.5) vs. 57.1 years (SD=11.5)), BMI (25.3 kg/m2 (SD=5.3) vs. 24.9 kg/ m2 (SD=5.1)) and race (69.0% vs. 68.2% Caucasian). Cases were more likely to drink alcohol daily than controls (52.1% vs. 49.0%), in particular two or more drinks per day (14.8% vs. 13.2%). Alcohol was associated with increased BC risk (OR=1.14, 95% CI:1.02-1.27, for one or less drinks per day and OR=1.22, 95% CI:1.05-1.42 for 2 or more drinks per day) compared to non-drinkers (p-trend=0.004). Percent volumetric density (OR=1.45 per SD, 95%CI: 1.36-1.56,) and dense volume (OR=1.30, 95% CI: 1.24-1.37) were also positively associated with BC risk; non-dense volume was inversely associated (OR=0.93, 95%CI: 0.86-1.01). Associations were similar by menopausal subgroup. There was no evidence for a differential association of alcohol and breast cancer risk by dense breasts assessed using any of the density phenotypes examined (all P’s&gt;0.1). However, the association between alcohol and overall risk of BC was partially mediated by dense volume among all women (percent mediated=25%, P=0.01) and postmenopausal women (percent mediated=19%, P=0.03). Conclusions: The association of daily alcohol intake and breast cancer risk was similar among women with dense and non-dense breasts. However, dense volume partially mediated the association between alcohol and risk of breast cancer, particularly among postmenopausal women, suggesting that alcohol partially influences breast cancer risk through changes in breast tissue composition. Citation Format: Celine Marie Vachon, Christopher G. Scott, Stacey J Winham, John A Shepherd, Kathleen R Brandt, Matthew R Jensen, Carrie B Hruska, John J Heine, V. Shane Pankratz, Karla Kerlikowske. Association of daily alcohol intake, volumetric density and breast cancer risk [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-08-02.

Abstract Background: Mammographic breast density declines during menopause. We assessed changes in volumetric breast density across the menopausal transition and factors that influence these changes. Methods: Women without a history of breast cancer, who had full field digital mammograms during both pre- and postmenopausal periods, at least 2 years apart, were sampled from four facilities within the San Francisco Mammography Registry from 2007 to 2013. Dense breast volume (DV) was assessed using Volpara on mammograms across the time period. Annualized change in DV from pre- to postmenopause was estimated using linear mixed models adjusted for covariates and per-woman random effects. Multiplicative interactions were evaluated between premenopausal risk factors and time to determine whether these covariates modified the annualized changes. Results: Among the 2,586 eligible women, 1,802 had one premenopausal and one postmenopausal mammogram, 628 had an additional perimenopausal mammogram, and 156 had two perimenopausal mammograms. Women experienced an annualized decrease in DV [−2.2 cm3 (95% confidence interval, −2.7 to −1.7)] over the menopausal transition. Declines were greater among women with a premenopausal DV above the median (54 cm3) versus below (DV, −3.5 cm3 vs. −1.0 cm3; P &lt; 0.0001). Other breast cancer risk factors, including race, body mass index, family history, alcohol, and postmenopausal hormone therapy, had no effect on change in DV over the menopausal transition. Conclusions: High premenopausal DV was a strong predictor of greater reductions in DV across the menopausal transition. Impact: We found that few factors other than premenopausal density influence changes in DV across the menopausal transition, limiting targeted prevention efforts.