Shen, Li

Importance Tau positron emission tomography (PET) allows in vivo detection of neurofibrillary tangles, a core neuropathologic feature of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective To provide estimates of the frequency of tau PET positivity and its associated risk of clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants Longitudinal study using data pooled from 21 cohorts, comprising a convenience sample of 6514 participants from 13 countries, collected between January 2013 and June 2024. Cognitively unimpaired individuals and patients with a clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD dementia, or other neurodegenerative disorders were included. Exposures Tau PET with flortaucipir F 18, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and clinical examinations. Tau PET scans were visually rated as positive according to a US Food and Drug Administration– and European Medicines Agency–approved method, designed to indicate the presence of advanced neurofibrillary tangle pathology (Braak stages V-VI). Main Outcomes and Measures Frequency of tau PET positivity and absolute risk of clinical progression (eg, progression to MCI or dementia). Results Among the 6514 participants (mean age, 69.5 years; 50.5% female), median follow-up time ranged from 1.5 to 4.0 years. Of 3487 cognitively unimpaired participants, 349 (9.8%) were tau PET positive; the estimated frequency of tau PET positivity was less than 1% in those aged younger than 50 years, and increased from 3% (95% CI, 2%-4%) at 60 years to 19% (95% CI, 16%-24%) at 90 years. Tau PET positivity frequency estimates increased across MCI and AD dementia clinical diagnoses (43% [95% CI, 41%-46%] and 79% [95% CI, 77%-82%] at 75 years, respectively). Most tau PET–positive individuals (92%) were also Aβ PET positive. Cognitively unimpaired participants who were positive for both Aβ PET and tau PET had a higher absolute risk of progression to MCI or dementia over the following 5 years (57% [95% CI, 45%-71%]) compared with both Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–negative (17% [95% CI, 13%-22%]) and Aβ PET–negative/tau PET–negative (6% [95% CI, 5%-8%]) individuals. Among participants with MCI at the time of the tau PET scan, an Aβ PET–positive/tau PET–positive profile was associated with a 5-year absolute risk of progression to dementia of 70% (95% CI, 59%-81%). Conclusions and Relevance In a large convenience sample, a positive tau PET scan occurred at a nonnegligible rate among cognitively unimpaired individuals, and the combination of Aβ PET positivity and tau PET positivity was associated with a high risk of clinical progression in both preclinical and symptomatic stages of AD. These findings underscore the potential of tau PET as a biomarker for staging AD pathology.

AbstractBackgroundImaging, cognitive and fluid data have been widely studied to identify quantitative biomarkers that can help predict the status and progression of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). However, it is still an underexplored topic whether there exist subpopulations with different genetic profiles across which the biomarker‐based prediction models may vary. We propose to use the Chow test (Chow 1960 Econometrica 28(3)) to perform genetically stratified analyses for identifying SNP‐based subpopulations coupled with precision AD biomarkers with varying effects on future diagnosis in these subpopulations. The investigation of such SNPs and precision biomarkers may eventually pave the way for increased customization of AD care.MethodParticipants included 1,324 subjects from the ADNI cohort with both AD biomarker and genotyping data available (http://www.pi4cs.org/qt‐pad‐challenge). 30 significant (P < 1.5E‐278) AD SNPs were sourced from (Jansen 2019 NatGen). Chow tests were performed to determine whether each of baseline visit measures of 16 AD biomarkers predicted AD diagnosis at the three‐year visit with varying slopes when stratifying upon the allelic dosage of each of 30 chosen SNPs. Bonferroni correction (P < 1.04E‐4) was employed to correct for multiple comparisons.ResultMultiple SNP‐biomarker pairs showed significant genetically driven deviations in the regression coefficients when predicting diagnosis in three years using baseline biomarkers (Figure 1). Top SNP hits involved rs769449 (Chr 19, APOE) and rs7561528 (Chr 2, LOC105373605), and almost all 16 studied biomarkers demonstrated differential slopes in different genotype groups to predict diagnosis in three years. To examine the details of these top findings, the regression coefficients calculated for each of the five most significant biomarkers of both SNPs were bootstrapped and plotted in Figure 2.ConclusionGenetic analysis of AD candidate SNPs in conjunction with AD biomarker data via the Chow test identified several SNPs coupled with precision AD biomarkers with varying prognosis effects in the corresponding genotype groups. These findings provide valuable information to reveal disease heterogeneity and help facilitate precision medicine.

INTRODUCTION The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities. Variations in human cortical surface area and thickness are associated with neurological, psychological, and behavioral traits and can be measured in vivo by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Studies in model organisms have identified genes that influence cortical structure, but little is known about common genetic variants that affect human cortical structure. RATIONALE To identify genetic variants associated with human cortical structure at both global and regional levels, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain MRI data from 51,665 individuals across 60 cohorts. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 cortical regions with known functional specializations. RESULTS We identified 369 nominally genome-wide significant loci ( P < 5 × 10 −8 ) associated with cortical structure in a discovery sample of 33,992 participants of European ancestry. Of the 360 loci for which replication data were available, 241 loci influencing surface area and 66 influencing thickness remained significant after replication, with 237 loci passing multiple testing correction ( P < 8.3 × 10 −10 ; 187 influencing surface area and 50 influencing thickness). Common genetic variants explained 34% (SE = 3%) of the variation in total surface area and 26% (SE = 2%) in average thickness; surface area and thickness showed a negative genetic correlation ( r G = −0.32, SE = 0.05, P = 6.5 × 10 −12 ), which suggests that genetic influences have opposing effects on surface area and thickness. Bioinformatic analyses showed that total surface area is influenced by genetic variants that alter gene regulatory activity in neural progenitor cells during fetal development. By contrast, average thickness is influenced by active regulatory elements in adult brain samples, which may reflect processes that occur after mid-fetal development, such as myelination, branching, or pruning. When considered together, these results support the radial unit hypothesis that different developmental mechanisms promote surface area expansion and increases in thickness. To identify specific genetic influences on individual cortical regions, we controlled for global measures (total surface area or average thickness) in the regional analyses. After multiple testing correction, we identified 175 loci that influence regional surface area and 46 that influence regional thickness. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes involved in the Wnt signaling pathway, which is known to influence areal identity. We observed significant positive genetic correlations and evidence of bidirectional causation of total surface area with both general cognitive functioning and educational attainment. We found additional positive genetic correlations between total surface area and Parkinson’s disease but did not find evidence of causation. Negative genetic correlations were evident between total surface area and insomnia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, depressive symptoms, major depressive disorder, and neuroticism. CONCLUSION This large-scale collaborative work enhances our understanding of the genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex and its regional patterning. The highly polygenic architecture of the cortex suggests that distinct genes are involved in the development of specific cortical areas. Moreover, we find evidence that brain structure is a key phenotype along the causal pathway that leads from genetic variation to differences in general cognitive function. Identifying genetic influences on human cortical structure. ( A ) Measurement of cortical surface area and thickness from MRI. ( B ) Genomic locations of common genetic variants that influence global and regional cortical structure. ( C ) Our results support the radial unit hypothesis that the expansion of cortical surface area is driven by proliferating neural progenitor cells. ( D ) Cortical surface area shows genetic correlation with psychiatric and cognitive traits. Error bars indicate SE. IMAGE CREDITS: (A) K. COURTNEY; (C) M. R. GLASS