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BACKGROUND: White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are widely used to assess cerebral small vessel disease but reflect late-stage injury. Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers have been proposed to capture earlier small vessel disease-related microstructural damage but their temporal progression relative to WMH and risk factors associated with progression remain unexplored. METHODS: We identified 2077 participants from the population-based cohort study of the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging in Olmsted County, Minnesota (aged 50–101 years) collected between 05/2005 and 09/2024 with longitudinal neuroimaging. Using multioutput nonlinear mixed-effects models in those with at least 2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery-MRI and diffusion MRI scans, we characterized the temporal progression of WMH and 4 diffusion MRI biomarkers: fractional anisotropy of the genu of the corpus callosum, peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity, free water, and Arteriolosclerosis-score, which were automatically estimated. Models incorporated participant-specific time shifts, correlations between biomarkers, and effects of risk factors (sex, education, APOE ε4 status, cardiometabolic conditions). RESULTS: The study population had a mean age of 78 years, 47% were women, 28% were APOE ε4 allele carriers, and 80% were cognitively unimpaired, with an average follow-up of 5.2 years (SD, 4.3 years) for fluid-attenuated inversion recovery-MRI and 4.3 years (SD, 3.9 years) for diffusion MRI. Arteriolosclerosis-score, fractional anisotropy of the genu of the corpus callosum, free water, and peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity became abnormal in 50% of the study population 16, 12, 10, and 7 years before WMH become abnormal (half-width of CI <1 year), respectively. Global markers (Arteriolosclerosis-score, free water, peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity, and WMH) were correlated, indicating shared substrates of widespread white matter injury. Fractional anisotropy of the genu of the corpus callosum, a vascular risk microstructural injury biomarker, was weakly coupled with WMH and had an earlier but more linear worsening across adulthood. Cardiometabolic conditions predicted earlier worsening of all biomarkers. Female participants showed earlier WMH, fractional anisotropy of the genu of the corpus callosum, and Arteriolosclerosis-score abnormalities, whereas male participants exhibited earlier peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity and free water abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: Diffusion MRI biomarkers were abnormal at least a decade before WMH become abnormal in the population, revealing a prolonged phase of early small vessel disease and highlighting their potential for small vessel disease prevention.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Prospective studies of blood‐based biomarkers reflecting pathogenic processes, other than Alzheimer‐specific pathologies, that contribute to dementia in diverse cohorts are lacking. METHODS We jointly fitted linear mixed‐effect models and proportional hazards models to examine associations of midlife glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), chitinase‐3‐like protein 1 (YKL‐40), soluble cluster of differentiation‐14 (sCD14), neurofilament light chain (NfL), total tau (t‐tau), and ubiquitin C‐terminal hydrolase L1 (UCHL1) levels in serum (collected in 1993 to 1995) with cognitive decline and incident dementia (ascertained over 29 years through 2022) in the community‐based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. sCD14 and YKL‐40 were measured in 3082 participants and the other four biomarkers in 1766 participants. RESULTS Higher serum GFAP, YKL‐40, sCD14, and NfL were associated with faster cognitive decline and elevated dementia rate (e.g., 1 standard deviation [SD] higher log‐base2 YKL‐40 was associated with −0.11SD faster 25‐year cognitive decline (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.15,−0.07) and 45% higher dementia hazard (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.45 [95% CI: 1.25, 1.68]). Higher t‐tau and UCHL1 were also associated with faster cognitive decline. DISCUSSION Midlife blood biomarkers reflecting glial and neuronal dysfunction and neuroinflammation are associated with early cognitive impairment.

Abstract Background White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are widely used to assess cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) but reflect late-stage injury. Diffusion MRI based biomarkers have been proposed to capture earlier SVD-related microstructural damage but their temporal progression relative to WMH and the risk factors associated with this progression have not been explored. Methods We analyzed longitudinal neuroimaging data from 2,047 participants from a population-based cohort study (aged 49-101 years, 47% female). Using multi-output nonlinear mixed-effects models, we characterized the temporal progression of WMH and four diffusion MRI based biomarkers: fractional anisotropy of the genu of the corpus callosum (Genu-FA), peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity (PSMD), free water (FW), and Arteriolosclerosis-score (ARTS). Models incorporated participant-specific time shifts, correlations between biomarkers, and effects of risk factors (sex, education, APOE ε4 status, and cardiometabolic conditions). Results ARTS, Genu-FA, FW, and PSMD became abnormal in 50% of the study population 16, 12, 10, and 7 years before WMH, respectively. Global markers (ARTS, FW, PSMD, WMH) were correlated, indicating shared substrates of widespread white matter injury. Genu-FA, a vascular risk microstructural injury biomarker, was weakly coupled with WMH and had an earlier but more linear worsening across adulthood. Cardiometabolic conditions predicted earlier worsening of all biomarkers. Females showed earlier WMH, Genu-FA, and ARTS abnormalities whereas males exhibited earlier PSMD and FW abnormalities. Conclusions Diffusion MRI based biomarkers capture microstructural injury at least a decade before appearance of WMH, revealing a prolonged phase of early SVD and highlighting their potential for SVD prevention.

Abstract Associations of Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline are important to inform patient prognosis. Of particular interest is how newly available plasma biomarkers evolve relative to cognitive decline. The goals of this work are to measure how much earlier versus later an individual’s progression on plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers is associated with earlier versus later cognitive progression and to estimate the average timeline of progression of these processes in the population. In this cohort study of 2369 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and 1591 Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants, we fit non-linear mixed-effects models to estimate how much earlier versus later each individual progresses on plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217, amyloid PET, tau PET and auditory verbal learning test (AVLT) sum of trials relative to the population mean (individual adjustment), the associations of these individual adjustments among biomarker pairs and how covariates affect the timing of biomarker progression. The association of individual adjustments implies mechanistic associations and the amount of variability in cognitive decline accounted for by each biomarker. By applying cut-off points, we also estimated the relative timing that these biomarkers become abnormal in the population. Associations of individual adjustments were moderate between all biomarkers and AVLT (R = 0.38–0.47) in the MCSA and stronger (R = 0.74–0.81) in ADNI; plasma p-tau217 accounted for 16% of the variability in timing of AVLT decline in the MCSA and 64% in ADNI. APOE ɛ4 carriership was associated with earlier biomarker progression. AVLT became abnormal after the biomarkers up to age 90, after which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers. The association of the timing of plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline was modest in the MCSA population-based sample and stronger in the Alzheimer’s disease-enriched ADNI cohort. The timing of plasma p-tau217 progression explained a similar degree of variability in AVLT progression as amyloid PET, supporting its utility as a marker of disease progression. The estimated temporal ordering of biomarkers and cognitive abnormality was as anticipated (amyloid, tau, cognition) up to the age of 90, beyond which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers, likely related to the effects of non-Alzheimer’s disease co-pathologies.

Abstract Background Decreased kidney function, indicated by a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), may affect interpretation of Alzheimer's disease (AD) blood biomarkers, including phosphorylated tau ( p ‐tau) and amyloid‐beta (Aβ) peptides, due to altered clearance. However, there is limited data available to determine the influence of eGFR on these biomarkers and whether it differs by biomarker or assay type, especially in racially diverse studies of community‐based older adults. Methods We used data from 557 participants in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (Rochester, MN n = 182; age 79±8 years; 36.3% Female, White participants) and the UMMC MIND Center‐Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (Jackson, MS n = 375; age 69±8 years; 73% Female 27% Black participants). eGFR was determined using the 2021 CKD‐EPI Creatinine equation. Plasma biomarkers were measured using the Lumipulse immunoassays for p ‐tau217, Aβ42, and Aβ40 (Fujirebio Diagnostics; n = 420); or the mass spectrometry‐based PrecivityAD2 assay (C2N Diagnostics; n = 253) for p ‐tau217, np‐tau217, Aβ42, and Aβ40. Common ratio values were calculated. Aβ42/40 measures were inverted so higher values are worse for all biomarkers. Log base‐2 transformed regression analysis related eGFR to each single analyte and ratio; coefficients (95% CI) reflect estimated doubling in biomarker per doubling in eGFR. Group specific [MN White ( n = 182), MS White ( n = 224), MS Black ( n = 151) participants] estimates are reported, as the distribution of social determinants of health can vary across populations and locations. Results Lower eGFR was associated with higher (worse) AD‐plasma biomarkers, and group stratified estimates were mostly consistent (Figure 1). Ratios of biomarkers diminished but did not entirely alleviate associations with eGFR. For example, MN White participants’ C2N p ‐tau217 association of ‐1.47 (‐1.94, ‐1.00), was attenuated to ‐0.67 (‐1.11, ‐0.22), when using p ‐tau217/np‐tau217. Conclusions Kidney function may be associated with AD‐plasma biomarker values, even with common ratio corrections. There was not strong evidence for highly differential associations of eGFR by race/site categories, though sample sizes are currently limited. The implications for diagnosis and risk classification need to be explored further to support health equity. Optimal consideration of comorbidities on blood biomarker concentrations must continue to be informed by investigation in large, racially and ethnically diverse, community‐based studies.

Abstract Background Plasma biomarkers show promise as a noninvasive method for measuring Alzheimer's disease pathology and neurodegeneration throughout the lifecourse. However, the relationship between longitudinal changes in these biomarkers and late‐life brain morphology in community‐dwelling populations requires further investigation. Method Between 2011 and 2013, 1,977 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study received an adjudicated cognitive diagnosis and underwent 3 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging scans. Whole‐brain cortical thickness was quantified by Freesurfer. Stored plasma samples collected in midlife (1993‐95, mean age 59.0 years) and late‐life (2011‐13, mean age 76.8 years) from a subsample of 1,515 participants were assayed in 2022 using Quanterix SiMoA. The assay quantified amyloid‐β (Aβ)42/40, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181 ( p ‐Tau181), neurofilament light (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Linear regression models estimated the association of plasma biomarkers from midlife, late‐life, and the change from midlife to late‐life with cortical thickness in late‐life. Interactions and effect modification by age were examined in exploratory analyses. Result The sample (Table 1) included 920 (60.7%) women, 387 (25.5%) Black participants, 513 (33.9%) participants with mild cognitive impairment, and 85 (5.6%) participants with dementia. The average age in late‐life was 76.8 (5.3 SD) years and the average cortical thickness was 2.27 (0.11 SD) millimeters. Cortical thickness was lower in individuals with adjudicated mild cognitive impairment or dementia compared to individuals without cognitive impairment (2.25 mm versus 2.29 mm, p <0.0001). In models adjusted for demographics, lifestyle factors, cardiovascular factors, and the presence of APOE ε4 alleles, higher midlife measures of p ‐Tau181 and increases from midlife to late‐life in NfL and GFAP were associated with lower cortical thickness in late‐life (Table 2). Concurrent measures of plasma biomarkers in late‐life were associated with lower cortical thickness (Table 2) and exhibited a stronger association among participants ≥75 years compared to <75 years (Table 3). Conclusion Plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease pathology and neurodegeneration obtained in midlife and late‐life were associated with late‐life differences in cortical thickness. Additional longitudinal research is needed to determine whether plasma biomarkers predict cortical thinning over time and may serve as an early indicator of accelerated brain atrophy.

Abstract Mobility and cognition impairments are common in older adults, but neurodegenerative pathology contributions are unclear. We examined cross-temporal associations of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD)-specific and nonspecific neurodegenerative plasma biomarkers neurofilament light (NfL) with incident mobility and cognitive impairment in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We hypothesized NfL would show stronger associations with mobility impairment than p-tau181 in a subset of 1,227 cognitively normal participants with biomarker data and no mobility impairment (mean age=75.5±5.0, 56% female, 23% Black) at visit 5 (2011-13). Participants were classified into five functional groups using data from up to four exams: no impairment (n = 587; referent), mobility impairment only (n = 266; gait speed&lt; 0.8m/s), cognitive impairment only (n = 69; adjudicated dementia), dual impairment (n = 243; both) or decline-free death (n = 262) over a mean 6.3 years (0-11 years) of follow-up. A multinomial regression model estimated association of functional groups with p-tau-181 and NfL jointly, adjusted for cardiovascular and demographic factors, BMI, and kidney function. Relative prevalence ratios (RPR; 95% CI) are presented per one-unit higher log-base-2 transformed biomarker (doubling). For mobility and cognitive functional outcomes, p-tau-181 was more robustly supported [Mobility: RPR=1.36, (1.04,1.77); Cognitive: RPR=1.73, (1.10,2.70); Dual: RPR=1.78, (1.15,2.77)] than NfL [Mobility: RPR=1.14, (0.85,1.53); Cognitive: RPR=1.20, (0.70,2.05); Dual: RPR=1.65, (0.86,3.16)]; higher pTau-181 [RPR=1.60, (1.23,2.09)] and higher NfL [RPR=1.94, (1.39,2.71)] were associated with higher risk of decline-free death. A p-tau-181-x-NfL interaction term was not supported. Findings did not support NfL associations with functional outcomes with consideration of p-tau-181. AD blood biomarkers may help identify individuals at greater risk for multifaceted disability.

Abstract Although slower gait speed is associated with cognitive impairment, endurance may be more predictive in older adults with faster gait speed. We examined moderating effects of endurance on the relationship of gait speed with incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia in cognitively normal ARIC participants (n = 2242, mean age=78.6 + 4.3, 58% female, 19% Black). At the sixth exam, endurance was assessed as distance walked at a fast pace (Two Minute Walk, 2MW); usual 4-meter gait speed was also assessed. Cognitive status was adjudicated during the 6th-9th exams (mean follow-up 5.1 years). Multinomial logistic regression models with a 2MW-x-gait speed interaction term estimated relative risk ratios (RRR) of MCI and dementia relative to normal cognition per SD higher gait speed or 2MW distance, adjusting for demographic and cardiovascular factors. Results used representative continuous gait speed and continuous 2MW distance values. Longer 2MW distance was associated with lower risk of MCI and dementia at gait speed &lt;1m/s [e.g. gait speed=0.8: MCI RRR=0.59, 95%CI(0.42, 0.83); dementia RRR=0.29, (0.13, 0.63)] and with dementia at gait speed&gt;1m/s [gait speed=1.2: RRR=0.28, (0.09, 0.81)], but not with MCI (RRR=0.85, (0.57, 1.26)]. Conversely, faster gait speed was associated with lower risk of MCI at low 2MW [100 m; RRR=0.84, (0.74, 0.94)], but was attenuated at high 2MW (150 m; RRR=0.91, (0.84, 1.00)]. A 2MW-x-gait speed interaction term was supported (p = 0.04), primarily driven by differential MCI associations. Combining endurance and gait speed may be especially helpful in identifying cognitively normal older adults at risk for impending early-stage cognitive impairment.

Abstract Faster gait speed and better endurance have been cross-sectionally and jointly associated with a lower likelihood of dementia. However, gait speed associations plateau above 1m/s, suggesting gait speed may be less predictive at near normal speeds. This study examined prospective associations of gait speed, endurance, and moderating effects of endurance on gait speed associations with incident dementia among ARIC participants without dementia at Visit 6 (2016-2017) who completed assessments of endurance ( 2- Minute Walk (2MW), meters) and usual-pace 4-meter gait speed (m/s) (n = 2767, mean age 78+/- 4.3 years, 43% male, 18% Black). Dementia was adjudicated using neuropsychological tests, functional assessments, informant interviews, and medical/vital record surveillance over a median of 3.3 years follow-up. Cox regression models estimated the hazard ratio (HR, 95% CI) for dementia, incorporating gait speed, 2MW, gait speed-by-2MW interaction, demographic, and cardiovascular factors. In separate models, each standard deviation higher 2MW [HR = 0.62, (0.50,0.76)] and faster gait speed [HR = 0.63, (0.50,0.81)] were associated with lower incident dementia risk. However, when jointly adjusting for 2MW and gait speed, higher 2MW was associated with a 32% lower incident dementia risk [HR = 0.68,(0.51, 0.90)], but faster gait speed was not statistically associated with incident dementia [HR = 0.85, (0.62,1.16)]. Moderating effects were not supported (gait speed-x-2MW interaction, p = 0.14). Although both endurance and gait speed predict dementia, endurance may be more informative across the gait speed spectrum, whereas gait speed may be more feasible for clinical settings. Longer follow-up and more dementia events may better inform differential utilities of gait speed and endurance measures.