Therneau, Terry M.

Abstract INTRODUCTION White matter lesions on fluid‐attenuated inversion recovery magnetic resonance imaging (FLAIR‐MRI) reflect small vessel disease (SVD) and aid in identifying vascular contributions to impairment and dementia (VCID). Emerging diffusion MRI (dMRI) biomarkers are sensitive to early SVD but the lack of validated approaches for defining dMRI abnormality has limited their clinical utility. METHODS In 3934 participants (8749 observations) from a population‐based sample, we classified 9% as vascular cognitive impairment versus not (VCI+/VCI−) using abnormal FLAIR‐MRI and cognitive testing. We evaluated four distinct dMRI positivity criteria and assessed performance in an independent clinical sample. RESULTS The young referent criterion performed best and yielded an estimated prevalence of dMRI positivity aligned with pathology literature. About 40% of the population were dMRI positive, and these individuals had lower baseline cognition and faster longitudinal decline. Cutpoints were validated in an independent clinical sample. DISCUSSION The proposed dMRI abnormality framework can detect VCID and aid in identification of individuals at risk of VCI.

ABSTRACT Multistate models offer a powerful framework for studying disease processes and can be used to formulate intensity‐based and more descriptive marginal regression models. They also represent a natural foundation for the construction of joint models for disease processes and dynamic marker processes, as well as joint models incorporating random censoring and intermittent observation times. This article reviews the ways multistate models can be formed and fitted to life history data. Recent work on pseudo‐values and the incorporation of random effects to model dependence on the process history and between‐process heterogeneity are also discussed. The software available to facilitate such analyses is listed.

Abstract Background White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are widely used to assess cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) but reflect late-stage injury. Diffusion MRI based biomarkers have been proposed to capture earlier SVD-related microstructural damage but their temporal progression relative to WMH and the risk factors associated with this progression have not been explored. Methods We analyzed longitudinal neuroimaging data from 2,047 participants from a population-based cohort study (aged 49-101 years, 47% female). Using multi-output nonlinear mixed-effects models, we characterized the temporal progression of WMH and four diffusion MRI based biomarkers: fractional anisotropy of the genu of the corpus callosum (Genu-FA), peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity (PSMD), free water (FW), and Arteriolosclerosis-score (ARTS). Models incorporated participant-specific time shifts, correlations between biomarkers, and effects of risk factors (sex, education, APOE ε4 status, and cardiometabolic conditions). Results ARTS, Genu-FA, FW, and PSMD became abnormal in 50% of the study population 16, 12, 10, and 7 years before WMH, respectively. Global markers (ARTS, FW, PSMD, WMH) were correlated, indicating shared substrates of widespread white matter injury. Genu-FA, a vascular risk microstructural injury biomarker, was weakly coupled with WMH and had an earlier but more linear worsening across adulthood. Cardiometabolic conditions predicted earlier worsening of all biomarkers. Females showed earlier WMH, Genu-FA, and ARTS abnormalities whereas males exhibited earlier PSMD and FW abnormalities. Conclusions Diffusion MRI based biomarkers capture microstructural injury at least a decade before appearance of WMH, revealing a prolonged phase of early SVD and highlighting their potential for SVD prevention.

Abstract Associations of Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline are important to inform patient prognosis. Of particular interest is how newly available plasma biomarkers evolve relative to cognitive decline. The goals of this work are to measure how much earlier versus later an individual’s progression on plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers is associated with earlier versus later cognitive progression and to estimate the average timeline of progression of these processes in the population. In this cohort study of 2369 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and 1591 Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants, we fit non-linear mixed-effects models to estimate how much earlier versus later each individual progresses on plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217, amyloid PET, tau PET and auditory verbal learning test (AVLT) sum of trials relative to the population mean (individual adjustment), the associations of these individual adjustments among biomarker pairs and how covariates affect the timing of biomarker progression. The association of individual adjustments implies mechanistic associations and the amount of variability in cognitive decline accounted for by each biomarker. By applying cut-off points, we also estimated the relative timing that these biomarkers become abnormal in the population. Associations of individual adjustments were moderate between all biomarkers and AVLT (R = 0.38–0.47) in the MCSA and stronger (R = 0.74–0.81) in ADNI; plasma p-tau217 accounted for 16% of the variability in timing of AVLT decline in the MCSA and 64% in ADNI. APOE ɛ4 carriership was associated with earlier biomarker progression. AVLT became abnormal after the biomarkers up to age 90, after which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers. The association of the timing of plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline was modest in the MCSA population-based sample and stronger in the Alzheimer’s disease-enriched ADNI cohort. The timing of plasma p-tau217 progression explained a similar degree of variability in AVLT progression as amyloid PET, supporting its utility as a marker of disease progression. The estimated temporal ordering of biomarkers and cognitive abnormality was as anticipated (amyloid, tau, cognition) up to the age of 90, beyond which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers, likely related to the effects of non-Alzheimer’s disease co-pathologies.

Abstract Background The objective of this study was to determine the predictive value of amyloid‐PET versus plasma %p‐tau217 (defined as the ratio of phosphorylated to non‐phosphorylated Tau217 × 100), Aβ42/40, and the amyloid probability score (APS2; which combines of Aβ42/40 and %p‐tau217) in tau‐PET transitions (T‐ to T+). Method Participants included were from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and had plasma markers measured by mass spectrometry (IP‐MS; C2N), had an amyloid‐PET scan, and had a tau‐PET negative scan (SUVR<1.29, temporal meta‐ROI) at the baseline, along with one or more follow‐up tau‐PET scans. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the relationship between C2N plasma %P‐Tau217 and APS2 and incident tau‐PET positivity (SUVR>=1.29) adjusting for age, sex, and APOE ε4. An analysis was also performed using amyloid‐PET centiloid as the predictor. Both the plasma markers and amyloid‐PET centiloid were scaled so that a one‐unit change corresponds to the respective interquartile range (IQR) for comparability of hazard ratios (HR). The analyses were repeated in the BioFINDER‐2 cohort for validation. Result 255 MCSA participants (122 female [47.8%] were included with a median age of 71.9 (IQR: 65.8, 78.8) years old, of which 37 progressed to tau‐PET positivity. At baseline, 238 (93.7%) were cognitively unimpaired. Higher baseline %p‐tau217 (HR: 1.52 [95% CI: 1.28, 1.8]), amyloid‐PET centiloid (HR: 1.47 [95% CI: 1.20, 1.79]), and APS2 (HR: 1.62 [95% CI: 1.22, 2.16]) were associated with an increased risk of progressing to tau‐PET positive (Figure 1). Aβ42/40 (HR: 1.06 [95% 0.604–1.867] was not associated with incident tau positivity Among 605 participants who were tau negative at index date in BioFINDER‐2 (316 (52.2%) cognitively unimpaired), with a median age of 70.2 (IQR: 60.5‐76.4), 33 progressed to tau positivity with higher %p‐tau217 (HR: 1.8 [95% CI: 1.5, 2.17]), amyloid‐PET centiloid (HR: 2.3 [95% CI: 1.77, 2.97]), and lower Aβ 42/40 (HR: 0.42 [95% CI: 0.21, 0.85]) at index date all associated with an increased risk of progressing to tau‐PET positive. Conclusion In two independent cohorts , %p‐tau217 provides predictive information about those who will convert from tau negative to tau positive on PET scan with the associations being similar to amyloid‐PET.

Abstract A workgroup assembled by the Alzheimer’s Association recently described a conceptual framework for Alzheimer’s disease biological staging based on amyloid and tau PET imaging. However, specific tau PET cut points were left to be determined, a step necessary prior to clinical application. We sought to operationalize and evaluate Alzheimer’s disease biological staging by identifying meaningful tau PET cut points to define the four biological stages in a well-characterized participant cohort and describe the features of individuals placed into the different biological stages. The primary analysis included 896 participants in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging or the Mayo Clinic Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center longitudinal cohorts. A validation cohort consisted of 328 participants in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Both cognitively normal and impaired individuals with positive amyloid PET and evaluable tau PET imaging were included. Tau PET cut points were identified with Gaussian mixture models to characterize Alzheimer’s disease biological stage in study participants with different clinical diagnoses and objective degrees of cognitive impairment as measured by Mini-Mental State Examination. A tau PET cut point in the medial temporal region and two cut points in the temporoparietal region were identified to produce, collectively, the four Alzheimer’s disease biological stages described in the revised criteria. Increasing stage was associated with greater likelihood of mild cognitive impairment and dementia diagnosis and worsening cognitive performance on Mini-Mental State Examination and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes, a result that was reproduced in the independent Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort. This study provided empirical validation for the concept of using amyloid PET and tau PET to separate subjects with biomarker-proven Alzheimer’s disease into four biological stages with distinct characteristics.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Plasma biomarkers’ utility for predicting incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) remains unclear. We evaluated associations of plasma Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers and amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) with transitions from cognitively unimpaired (CU) to MCI in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and BioFINDER‐2 studies. METHODS Associations of continuous baseline plasma biomarker levels and amyloid PET Centiloid with progression to MCI, adjusting for age, sex, and education, were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS The study included 381 MCSA and 584 BioFINDER‐2 participants. Amyloid PET and percent phosphorylated to non‐phosphorylated tau217 (%p‐tau217) were strong predictors of progression to MCI in both cohorts: hazard ratios of 1.49 and 1.23 in the MCSA and 1.72 and 1.65 in BioFINDER, respectively. Amyloid beta 42/40 was a significant predictor in BioFINDER‐2 only (hazard ratio 2.20). DISCUSSION Plasma %p‐tau217 was associated with progression from CU to MCI in both cohorts, although differences in biomarker associations may be related to differences in the two cohorts. Highlights Mass‐spectrometry‐based plasma phosphorylated tau217 was associated with cognitively unimpaired to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression. Plasma amyloid beta 42/40 was a significant predictor in BioFINDER but not the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA). Amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) was the strongest predictor of progression to MCI in the MCSA. Plasma had added value to amyloid PET in BioFINDER but not the MCSA. Biomarker performance may vary with cohort and biomarker measurement differences.

Background: Cognitive change is an important factor in understanding dementia. Estimating effects of exposures on cognitive change requires choosing an analytical timescale, typically time on study or current age. There is limited consensus regarding timescale choice in epidemiologic cognitive aging research. Methods: Using a coordinated analytic approach in 10 cohorts of older adults, we evaluated whether estimated effects of two exposures on memory change differed depending on timescale (time on study or current age). We modeled effects of apolipoprotein-E (APOE) ε4 genotype (a time-invariant exposure) and diabetes (a potentially time-varying/acquired exposure evaluated at baseline) using mixed-effects models with linear and nonlinear time specifications for both timescales. Results: Among APOE ε4 carriers, model-estimated memory scores at baseline (time on study timescale) or at each cohort’s median baseline age (current age timescale) were lower, and the average rate of decline was faster than among APOE ε4 noncarriers. Model-estimated memory scores at baseline or at median baseline age were generally similar across baseline diabetes status, with variability across cohorts in the diabetes-memory change association. In some cohorts, trends in diabetes-memory change associations differed in direction across timescales. Conclusions: Timescale was largely inconsequential for estimated effects of APOE genotype, but yielded differences in estimated diabetes effects, raising questions about the appropriate scale. The current age scale may be problematic because diabetes was measured heterogeneously in age across individuals, a common issue in aging cohorts. Our work demonstrates approaches to evaluate alternative timescales, including in multicohort analyses, and highlights potential implications for estimated exposure effects on cognitive change.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Limited data exist on the utility of plasma biomarkers to predict incident abnormal amyloid positron emission tomography (PET). In this study we evaluate the association of plasma Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers with amyloid PET progression among initially amyloid PET negative (A−) individuals. METHODS We included 290 A−, cognitively unimpaired Mayo Clinic Study of Aging participants. We estimated the association of each baseline plasma biomarker with progression from A− to A+ and with rate of amyloid PET change. RESULTS Interquartile range differences in amyloid beta 42/40, percent phosphorylated tau 217 (%p‐tau217), and Amyloid Probability Score 2 were associated with 1.29 ( P = 0.09), 1.38 ( P < 0.001), and 1.20 ( P = 0.05) increases, respectively, in the hazard of progression from A− to A+ and 0.27 ( P = 0.16), 0.50 ( P = 0.007), and 0.28 ( P = 0.15) Centiloid/year increases, respectively, in annual rate of amyloid PET change. DISCUSSION Plasma %p‐tau217 may be a useful screening tool to enrich for participants with increased likelihood of progressing from normal to abnormal amyloid PET in a primary prevention trial. Highlights Plasma phosphorylated tau 217 was associated with amyloid positron emission tomography progression, negative to positive. The associations were weaker for amyloid beta 42/40 and Amyloid Probability Score 2. Age and apolipoprotein E ε4 carriership were also important predictors. These markers may be useful for enrichment of a primary prevention trial.