West, Tim

Abstract Associations of Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline are important to inform patient prognosis. Of particular interest is how newly available plasma biomarkers evolve relative to cognitive decline. The goals of this work are to measure how much earlier versus later an individual’s progression on plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers is associated with earlier versus later cognitive progression and to estimate the average timeline of progression of these processes in the population. In this cohort study of 2369 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and 1591 Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants, we fit non-linear mixed-effects models to estimate how much earlier versus later each individual progresses on plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217, amyloid PET, tau PET and auditory verbal learning test (AVLT) sum of trials relative to the population mean (individual adjustment), the associations of these individual adjustments among biomarker pairs and how covariates affect the timing of biomarker progression. The association of individual adjustments implies mechanistic associations and the amount of variability in cognitive decline accounted for by each biomarker. By applying cut-off points, we also estimated the relative timing that these biomarkers become abnormal in the population. Associations of individual adjustments were moderate between all biomarkers and AVLT (R = 0.38–0.47) in the MCSA and stronger (R = 0.74–0.81) in ADNI; plasma p-tau217 accounted for 16% of the variability in timing of AVLT decline in the MCSA and 64% in ADNI. APOE ɛ4 carriership was associated with earlier biomarker progression. AVLT became abnormal after the biomarkers up to age 90, after which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers. The association of the timing of plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline was modest in the MCSA population-based sample and stronger in the Alzheimer’s disease-enriched ADNI cohort. The timing of plasma p-tau217 progression explained a similar degree of variability in AVLT progression as amyloid PET, supporting its utility as a marker of disease progression. The estimated temporal ordering of biomarkers and cognitive abnormality was as anticipated (amyloid, tau, cognition) up to the age of 90, beyond which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers, likely related to the effects of non-Alzheimer’s disease co-pathologies.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Plasma biomarkers’ utility for predicting incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) remains unclear. We evaluated associations of plasma Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers and amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) with transitions from cognitively unimpaired (CU) to MCI in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and BioFINDER‐2 studies. METHODS Associations of continuous baseline plasma biomarker levels and amyloid PET Centiloid with progression to MCI, adjusting for age, sex, and education, were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS The study included 381 MCSA and 584 BioFINDER‐2 participants. Amyloid PET and percent phosphorylated to non‐phosphorylated tau217 (%p‐tau217) were strong predictors of progression to MCI in both cohorts: hazard ratios of 1.49 and 1.23 in the MCSA and 1.72 and 1.65 in BioFINDER, respectively. Amyloid beta 42/40 was a significant predictor in BioFINDER‐2 only (hazard ratio 2.20). DISCUSSION Plasma %p‐tau217 was associated with progression from CU to MCI in both cohorts, although differences in biomarker associations may be related to differences in the two cohorts. Highlights Mass‐spectrometry‐based plasma phosphorylated tau217 was associated with cognitively unimpaired to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression. Plasma amyloid beta 42/40 was a significant predictor in BioFINDER but not the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA). Amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) was the strongest predictor of progression to MCI in the MCSA. Plasma had added value to amyloid PET in BioFINDER but not the MCSA. Biomarker performance may vary with cohort and biomarker measurement differences.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Limited data exist on the utility of plasma biomarkers to predict incident abnormal amyloid positron emission tomography (PET). In this study we evaluate the association of plasma Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers with amyloid PET progression among initially amyloid PET negative (A−) individuals. METHODS We included 290 A−, cognitively unimpaired Mayo Clinic Study of Aging participants. We estimated the association of each baseline plasma biomarker with progression from A− to A+ and with rate of amyloid PET change. RESULTS Interquartile range differences in amyloid beta 42/40, percent phosphorylated tau 217 (%p‐tau217), and Amyloid Probability Score 2 were associated with 1.29 ( P = 0.09), 1.38 ( P < 0.001), and 1.20 ( P = 0.05) increases, respectively, in the hazard of progression from A− to A+ and 0.27 ( P = 0.16), 0.50 ( P = 0.007), and 0.28 ( P = 0.15) Centiloid/year increases, respectively, in annual rate of amyloid PET change. DISCUSSION Plasma %p‐tau217 may be a useful screening tool to enrich for participants with increased likelihood of progressing from normal to abnormal amyloid PET in a primary prevention trial. Highlights Plasma phosphorylated tau 217 was associated with amyloid positron emission tomography progression, negative to positive. The associations were weaker for amyloid beta 42/40 and Amyloid Probability Score 2. Age and apolipoprotein E ε4 carriership were also important predictors. These markers may be useful for enrichment of a primary prevention trial.

AbstractAlzheimer's disease is the public health crisis of the 21st century. There is a clear need for a widely available, inexpensive and reliable method to diagnosis Alzheimer's disease in the earliest stages, track disease progression, and accelerate clinical development of new therapeutics. One avenue of research being explored is blood based biomarkers. In April 2012, the Alzheimer's Association and the Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation convened top scientists from around the world to discuss the state of blood based biomarker development. This manuscript summarizes the meeting and the resultant discussion, including potential next steps to move this area of research forward.