Therneau, Terry M

Abstract Background White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are widely used to assess cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) but reflect late-stage injury. Diffusion MRI based biomarkers have been proposed to capture earlier SVD-related microstructural damage but their temporal progression relative to WMH and the risk factors associated with this progression have not been explored. Methods We analyzed longitudinal neuroimaging data from 2,047 participants from a population-based cohort study (aged 49-101 years, 47% female). Using multi-output nonlinear mixed-effects models, we characterized the temporal progression of WMH and four diffusion MRI based biomarkers: fractional anisotropy of the genu of the corpus callosum (Genu-FA), peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity (PSMD), free water (FW), and Arteriolosclerosis-score (ARTS). Models incorporated participant-specific time shifts, correlations between biomarkers, and effects of risk factors (sex, education, APOE ε4 status, and cardiometabolic conditions). Results ARTS, Genu-FA, FW, and PSMD became abnormal in 50% of the study population 16, 12, 10, and 7 years before WMH, respectively. Global markers (ARTS, FW, PSMD, WMH) were correlated, indicating shared substrates of widespread white matter injury. Genu-FA, a vascular risk microstructural injury biomarker, was weakly coupled with WMH and had an earlier but more linear worsening across adulthood. Cardiometabolic conditions predicted earlier worsening of all biomarkers. Females showed earlier WMH, Genu-FA, and ARTS abnormalities whereas males exhibited earlier PSMD and FW abnormalities. Conclusions Diffusion MRI based biomarkers capture microstructural injury at least a decade before appearance of WMH, revealing a prolonged phase of early SVD and highlighting their potential for SVD prevention.

Abstract Associations of Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline are important to inform patient prognosis. Of particular interest is how newly available plasma biomarkers evolve relative to cognitive decline. The goals of this work are to measure how much earlier versus later an individual’s progression on plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers is associated with earlier versus later cognitive progression and to estimate the average timeline of progression of these processes in the population. In this cohort study of 2369 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and 1591 Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants, we fit non-linear mixed-effects models to estimate how much earlier versus later each individual progresses on plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217, amyloid PET, tau PET and auditory verbal learning test (AVLT) sum of trials relative to the population mean (individual adjustment), the associations of these individual adjustments among biomarker pairs and how covariates affect the timing of biomarker progression. The association of individual adjustments implies mechanistic associations and the amount of variability in cognitive decline accounted for by each biomarker. By applying cut-off points, we also estimated the relative timing that these biomarkers become abnormal in the population. Associations of individual adjustments were moderate between all biomarkers and AVLT (R = 0.38–0.47) in the MCSA and stronger (R = 0.74–0.81) in ADNI; plasma p-tau217 accounted for 16% of the variability in timing of AVLT decline in the MCSA and 64% in ADNI. APOE ɛ4 carriership was associated with earlier biomarker progression. AVLT became abnormal after the biomarkers up to age 90, after which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers. The association of the timing of plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline was modest in the MCSA population-based sample and stronger in the Alzheimer’s disease-enriched ADNI cohort. The timing of plasma p-tau217 progression explained a similar degree of variability in AVLT progression as amyloid PET, supporting its utility as a marker of disease progression. The estimated temporal ordering of biomarkers and cognitive abnormality was as anticipated (amyloid, tau, cognition) up to the age of 90, beyond which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers, likely related to the effects of non-Alzheimer’s disease co-pathologies.