Cummings, Steven R.

Abstract The aim of this international meta-analysis was to quantify the predictive value of BMI for incident fracture and relationship of this risk with age, sex, follow-up time, and BMD. A total of 1 667 922 men and women from 32 countries (63 cohorts), followed for a total of 16.0 million person-years were studied. 293 325 had FN BMD measured (2.2 million person-years follow-up). An extended Poisson model in each cohort was used to investigate relationships between WHO-defined BMI categories (Underweight: <18.5 kg/m2; Normal: 18.5-24.9 kg/m2; Overweight: 25.0-29.9 kg/m2; Obese I: 30.0-34.9 kg/m2; Obese II: ≥35.0 kg/m2) and risk of incident osteoporotic, major osteoporotic and hip fracture (HF). Inverse-variance weighted β-coefficients were used to merge the cohort-specific results. For the subset with BMD available, in models adjusted for age and follow-up time, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for HF comparing underweight with normal weight was 2.35 (2.10-2.60) in women and for men was 2.45 (1.90-3.17). Hip fracture risk was lower in overweight and obese categories compared to normal weight [obese II vs normal: women 0.66 (0.55-0.80); men 0.91 (0.66-1.26)]. Further adjustment for FN BMD T-score attenuated the increased risk associated with underweight [underweight vs normal: women 1.69 (1.47-1.96); men 1.46 (1.00-2.13)]. In these models, the protective effects of overweight and obesity were attenuated, and in both sexes, the direction of association reversed to higher fracture risk in Obese II category [Obese II vs Normal: women 1.24 (0.97-1.58); men 1.70 (1.06-2.75)]. Results were similar for other fracture outcomes. Underweight is a risk factor for fracture in both men and women regardless of adjustment for BMD. However, while overweight/obesity appeared protective in base models, they became risk factors after additional adjustment for FN BMD, particularly in the Obese II category. This effect in the highest BMI categories was of greater magnitude in men than women. These results will inform the second iteration of FRAX®.

Abstract Studies in mice and cross-sectional studies in humans support the premise that cellular senescence is a contributing mechanism to age-associated deficits in physical function. We tested the hypotheses that circulating proteins secreted by senescent cells are (i) associated with the incidence of major mobility disability (MMD), the development of persistent mobility disability (PMMD), and decrements in physical functioning in older adults, and (ii) influenced by physical activity (PA). Using samples and data obtained longitudinally from the Lifestyle Interventions in Elders Study clinical trial, we measured a panel of 27 proteins secreted by senescent cells. Among 1 377 women and men randomized to either a structured PA intervention or a healthy aging (HA) intervention, we observed significant associations between several senescence biomarkers, most distinctly vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1), and matrix metallopeptidase 7 (MMP7), and the onset of both MMD and PMMD. Moreover, VEGFA, GDF15, osteopontin, and other senescence biomarkers were associated with reductions in short physical performance battery scores. The change in senescence biomarkers did not differ between PA and HA participants. In the whole cohort, higher levels of PA were associated with significantly greater reductions in 10 senescence-related proteins at 12 and/or 24 months. These data reinforce cellular senescence as a contributing mechanism of age-associated functional decline and the potential for PA to attenuate this hallmark of aging. Clinical Trials Registration Number: NCT01072500

AbstractA robust and heterogenous secretory phenotype is a core feature of most senescent cells. In addition to mediators of age‐related pathology, components of the senescence associated secretory phenotype (SASP) have been studied as biomarkers of senescent cell burden and, in turn, biological age. Therefore, we hypothesized that circulating concentrations of candidate senescence biomarkers, including chemokines, cytokines, matrix remodeling proteins, and growth factors, could predict mortality in older adults. We assessed associations between plasma levels of 28 SASP proteins and risk of mortality over a median follow‐up of 6.3 years in 1923 patients 65 years of age or older with zero or one chronic condition at baseline. Overall, the five senescence biomarkers most strongly associated with an increased risk of death were GDF15, RAGE, VEGFA, PARC, and MMP2, after adjusting for age, sex, race, and the presence of one chronic condition. The combination of biomarkers and clinical and demographic covariates exhibited a significantly higher c‐statistic for risk of death (0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76–0.82) than the covariates alone (0.70, CI: 0.67–0.74) (p < 0.001). Collectively, these findings lend further support to biomarkers of cellular senescence as informative predictors of clinically important health outcomes in older adults, including death.

Abstract Background Heterochronic parabiosis has identified growth differentiation factor (GDF)-11 as a potential means of cardiac rejuvenation, but findings have been inconsistent. A major barrier has been lack of assay specificity for GDF-11 and its homolog GDF-8. Methods We tested the hypothesis that GDF-11 and GDF-8, and their major antagonists follistatin and follistatin-like (FSTL)-3, are associated with incident heart failure (HF) and its subtypes in elders. Based on validation experiments, we used liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry to measure total serum GDF-11 and GDF-8, along with follistatin and FSTL-3 by immunoassay, in 2 longitudinal cohorts of older adults. Results In 2 599 participants (age 75.2 ± 4.3) followed for 10.8 ± 5.6 years, 721 HF events occurred. After adjustment, neither GDF-11 (HR per doubling: 0.93 [0.67, 1.30]) nor GDF-8 (HR: 1.02 per doubling [0.83, 1.27]) was associated with incident HF or its subtypes. Positive associations with HF were detected for follistatin (HR: 1.15 [1.00, 1.32]) and FLST-3 (HR: 1.38 [1.03, 1.85]), and with HF with preserved ejection fraction for FSTL-3 (HR: 1.77 [1.03, 3.02]). (All HRs per doubling of biomarker.) FSTL-3 associations with HF appeared stronger at higher follistatin levels and vice versa, and also for men, Blacks, and lower kidney function. Conclusions Among older adults, serum follistatin and FSTL-3, but not GDF-11 or GDF-8, were associated with incident HF. These findings do not support the concept that low serum levels of total GDF-11 or GDF-8 contribute to HF late in life, but do implicate transforming growth factor-β superfamily pathways as potential therapeutic targets.

Abstract Background Based on studies from animal models, growth differentiation factor-11 (GDF-11) may have rejuvenating effects in humans. GDF-11 has high sequence homology with GDF-8 (also known as myostatin); follistatin and follistatin-like protein-3 (FSTL-3) are inhibitory proteins of both GDF-8 and GDF-11. Methods Using highly specific liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry assays for GDF-11 and GDF-8 and immunoassays for follistatin and FSTL-3, we quantified the association of these factors with muscle size, strength, and physical performance in 2 prospective cohort studies of community-dwelling older adults (Health, Aging, and Body Composition study [Health ABC] and Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS]). Results GDF-8 levels were positively associated with thigh muscle cross-sectional area and density in Health ABC (data not available in CHS). GDF-8 levels were positively associated with lean mass (a surrogate of muscle mass) in Health ABC but not CHS, and grip strength in CHS but not Health ABC. FSTL-3 (and perhaps follistatin) was negatively associated with lean mass and had variable associations with other variables. In contrast, GDF-11 was not significantly associated with strength or performance. Conclusions GDF-8 and its binding proteins, follistatin and FSTL-3, may constitute a counterregulatory system (chalones) to restrain age-related loss of muscle mass and strength.

Abstract Background Studies using heterochronic parabiosis discovered that circulating factors mediate brain aging in animal models. Methods We assessed growth differentiation factors (GDF)-11 and GDF-8 using mass spectrometry and inhibitors follistatin and follistatin-like protein-3 (FSTL-3) with ELISA in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS; N = 1 506) and the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study (N = 1 237). CLL-11 and beta-2 microglobulin (β2M) were measured with ELISA in a subset of 400 individuals in Health ABC. Associations were assessed with cognitive function, brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings (CHS only), and incident dementia using correlations, linear regression, and Cox proportional hazards models. Results In CHS, levels of GDF-11, GDF-8, and follistatin were not correlated cross-sectionally with the 3MSE or DSST, brain MRI findings of white matter hyperintensity, atrophy, or small infarcts, nor were they associated with incident dementia. FSTL-3 was modestly correlated with poorer cognitive function, greater white matter hyperintensities, and atrophy on MRI, as well as with incident dementia with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.72 (95% CI = 1.13, 2.61) per doubling of FSTL-3. FSTL-3 was not associated with cognition or dementia in Health ABC, but GDF-8 was associated with both. The adjusted HR for incident dementia was 1.50 (95% CI = 1.07, 2.10) per doubling of GDF-8. Conclusions Total GDF-11 level was not related to cognition or dementia in older adults. Associations of GDF-8 with cognitive outcomes in Health ABC were not expected, but consistent with animal models. Associations of FSTL-3 with cognition, brain abnormalities, and incident dementia in CHS implicate TGFβ superfamily inhibition in the pathogenesis of dementia.

Produced by senescent cells, the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) is a potential driver of age-related dysfunction. We tested whether circulating concentrations of SASP proteins reflect age and medical risk in humans. We first screened senescent endothelial cells, fibroblasts, preadipocytes, epithelial cells, and myoblasts to identify candidates for human profiling. We then tested associations between circulating SASP proteins and clinical data from individuals throughout the life span and older adults undergoing surgery for prevalent but distinct age-related diseases. A community-based sample of people aged 20–90 years (retrospective cross-sectional) was studied to test associations between circulating SASP factors and chronological age. A subset of this cohort aged 60–90 years and separate cohorts of older adults undergoing surgery for severe aortic stenosis (prospective longitudinal) or ovarian cancer (prospective case-control) were studied to assess relationships between circulating concentrations of SASP proteins and biological age (determined by the accumulation of age-related health deficits) and/or postsurgical outcomes. We showed that SASP proteins were positively associated with age, frailty, and adverse postsurgery outcomes. A panel of 7 SASP factors composed of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15), TNF receptor superfamily member 6 (FAS), osteopontin (OPN), TNF receptor 1 (TNFR1), ACTIVIN A, chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 3 (CCL3), and IL-15 predicted adverse events markedly better than a single SASP protein or age. Our findings suggest that the circulating SASP may serve as a clinically useful candidate biomarker of age-related health and a powerful tool for interventional human studies.

Abstract Background Extensive work in basic and clinical science suggests that biological mechanisms of aging are causally related to the development of disease and disability in late life. Modulation of the biological mechanisms of aging can extend both life span and health span in animal models, but translation to humans has been slow. Methods Summary of workshop proceedings from the 2018–2019 Epidemiology of Aging Workshop hosted by the Intramural Research Program at the National Institute on Aging. Results Epidemiologic studies play a vital role to progress in this field, particularly in evaluating new risk factors and measures of biologic aging that may influence health span, as well as developing relevant outcome measures that are robust and relevant for older individuals. Conclusions Appropriately designed epidemiological studies are needed to identify targets for intervention and to inform study design and sample size estimates for future clinical trials designed to promote health span.

Abstract Purpose: The evidence on associations of mammographic breast density with breast cancer risk by combination of tumor aggressiveness features is limited. We examined associations of breast density phenotypes with risk of aggressive breast tumor features by menopausal status, and current postmenopausal hormone therapy. Methods: This study included 2,635 invasive breast cancer cases and 4,059 controls from participants of four nested case-control studies within four established cohorts: the Mayo Mammography Health Study, the Nurses Health Study, Nurses Health Study II, and San Francisco Mammography Registry. Percent breast density, absolute dense and non-dense areas were assessed from digitized film-screen mammograms using a computer-assisted threshold technique and standardized across studies. We used polytomous logistic regression to quantify the associations of breast density measures with risk of breast tumor aggressiveness (defined as presence of 2 or more of the following tumor characteristics: size ≥2cm, grade 2 or 3, or positive nodes), stratified by menopausal status and current hormone therapy (i.e., premenopausal, postmenopausal/estrogen therapy, postmenopausal/combined therapy, and postmenopausal/no hormones). We also evaluated differences in the strength of associations across categories. In a secondary analysis, we examined these associations while excluding cases with mammogram date within 2 years of diagnosis. Results: Positive associations of percent density and dense area and inverse associations of non-dense area with breast cancer risk were stronger in aggressive vs. non-aggressive tumors (OR=2.62, 95%CI 2.08-3.31 vs. OR=1.94, 95%CI 1.62-2.33 for percent density≥51% vs. 11-25%, p-heterogeneity=0.001; OR=1.89, 95%CI 1.54-2.31 vs. OR=1.65, 95%CI 1.41-1.93 for dense area 4th vs. 2nd quartile, p-heterogeneity=0.015; OR=0.56, 95%CI 0.44-0.72 vs. OR=0.71, 95%CI 0.59-0.86 for non-dense area 4th vs 2nd quartile, p-heterogeneity=0.007, respectively). These patterns were similar across all menopausal and hormone therapy groups (P-interactions=0.62, 0.76, and 0.23, for percent density, dense area and non-dense area, respectively). Excluding cases diagnosed within 2 years of mammography resulted in similar findings. Conclusion: Mammographic density phenotypes were more strongly associated with aggressive cancer (having two or more of the following: size ≥2cm, grade 2 or 3, or positive nodes) vs. non-aggressive types of breast cancer across categories of menopause and hormone therapy types. Citation Format: Lusine Yaghjyan, Rulla Tamimi, Kimberly Bertrand, Christopher G. Scott, Matthew R. Jensen, Shane Pankratz, Kathleen Brandt, Daniel Visscher, Aaron Norman, Fergus Cough, John Shepherd, Bo Fan, Yunn-Yi Chen, Lin Ma, Andrew H. Beck, Steven R. Cummings, Karla Kerlikowske, Celine Vachon. Interaction of mammographic breast density with menopausal status and postmenopausal hormone use in relation to the risk of aggressive breast cancer subtypes. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Improving Cancer Risk Prediction for Prevention and Early Detection; Nov 16-19, 2016; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2017;26(5 Suppl):Abstract nr B27.