Orwoll, Eric S

Abstract With the goal of preventing more hip fractures, a next generation of the VirtuOst Biomechanical Computed Tomography (BCT) test was developed that integrates measurements from a clinical CT scan related to fall risk, impact force, and femoral strength, the three main determinants of hip fracture. Here, we introduce the test and validate it against BMD and FRAX. Our source population from a large healthcare system comprised of 341364 patients (≥65 yr) with an abdominal-pelvic CT during care. Using data from 3035 patients (1790 with hip fracture), we developed a “BCT Risk Score” (range: 0-100) having input risk factors of age, femoral strength, ratio of trabecular/cortical BMD, muscle area, intramuscular fat, FN volume, hip width, and posterior fat thickness. In a geographically distinct set of 2124 patients (1293 with hip fracture), we then compared the BCT Risk Score against a DXA-equivalent hip BMD T-score (lowest hip value, measured from the CT scan by VirtuOst) and FRAX hip fracture risk (with BMD but without parental fracture history) for predicting a first incident hip fracture within 5 yr. For the women, the c-statistic for predicting fracture was higher for BCT (0.89, 95% CI: 0.87-0.90) than for BMD (0.81, 0.79-0.84) or FRAX (0.85, 0.83-0.87). Using binary thresholds to identify high-risk patients, sensitivity for BCT (Risk Score ≥ 75) was higher than for BMD (T-score ≤ −2.5) and FRAX (hip risk ≥ 3.0%): 81.4% vs 47.8% vs 75.9%, respectively; positive predictive values confirmed comparable high-risk status (BCT 13.6% vs BMD 15.3% vs FRAX 12.7%). Similar trends were observed for the men, 2-yr outcomes, and identifying very-high-risk patients. We conclude that, compared to both BMD and FRAX, the integrative BCT test better predicted hip fracture and its high sensitivity should improve fracture prevention.

Abstract The aim of this international meta-analysis was to quantify the predictive value of BMI for incident fracture and relationship of this risk with age, sex, follow-up time, and BMD. A total of 1 667 922 men and women from 32 countries (63 cohorts), followed for a total of 16.0 million person-years were studied. 293 325 had FN BMD measured (2.2 million person-years follow-up). An extended Poisson model in each cohort was used to investigate relationships between WHO-defined BMI categories (Underweight: <18.5 kg/m2; Normal: 18.5-24.9 kg/m2; Overweight: 25.0-29.9 kg/m2; Obese I: 30.0-34.9 kg/m2; Obese II: ≥35.0 kg/m2) and risk of incident osteoporotic, major osteoporotic and hip fracture (HF). Inverse-variance weighted β-coefficients were used to merge the cohort-specific results. For the subset with BMD available, in models adjusted for age and follow-up time, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for HF comparing underweight with normal weight was 2.35 (2.10-2.60) in women and for men was 2.45 (1.90-3.17). Hip fracture risk was lower in overweight and obese categories compared to normal weight [obese II vs normal: women 0.66 (0.55-0.80); men 0.91 (0.66-1.26)]. Further adjustment for FN BMD T-score attenuated the increased risk associated with underweight [underweight vs normal: women 1.69 (1.47-1.96); men 1.46 (1.00-2.13)]. In these models, the protective effects of overweight and obesity were attenuated, and in both sexes, the direction of association reversed to higher fracture risk in Obese II category [Obese II vs Normal: women 1.24 (0.97-1.58); men 1.70 (1.06-2.75)]. Results were similar for other fracture outcomes. Underweight is a risk factor for fracture in both men and women regardless of adjustment for BMD. However, while overweight/obesity appeared protective in base models, they became risk factors after additional adjustment for FN BMD, particularly in the Obese II category. This effect in the highest BMI categories was of greater magnitude in men than women. These results will inform the second iteration of FRAX®.

Abstract Randomized trials have not been performed, and may never be, to determine if osteoporosis treatment prevents hip fracture in men. Addressing that evidence gap, we analyzed data from an observational study of new hip fractures in a large integrated healthcare system to compare the reduction in hip fractures associated with standard-of-care osteoporosis treatment in men versus women. Sampling from 271,389 patients aged ≥ 65 who had a hip-containing CT scan during care between 2005 and 2018, we selected all who subsequently had a first hip fracture (cases) after the CT scan (start of observation) and a sex-matched equal number of randomly selected patients. From those, we analyzed all who tested positive for osteoporosis (DXA-equivalent hip BMD T-score ≤ −2.5, measured from the CT scan using VirtuOst). We defined “treated” as at least six months of any osteoporosis medication by prescription fill data during follow-up; “not-treated” was no prescription fill. Sex-specific odds ratios of hip fracture for treated vs not-treated patients were calculated by logistic regression; adjustments included age, BMD T-score, BMD-treatment interaction, BMD, race/ethnicity, and seven baseline clinical risk factors. At two-year follow-up, 33.9% of the women (750/2,211 patients) and 24.0% of the men (175/728 patients) were treated primarily with alendronate; 51.3% and 66.3%, respectively, were not-treated; and 721 and 269, respectively, had a first hip fracture since the CT scan. Odds ratio of hip fracture for treated vs not-treated was 0.26 (95% confidence interval: 0.21–0.33) for women and 0.21 (0.13–0.34) for men; the ratio of these odds ratios (men:women) was 0.81 (0.47–1.37), indicating no significant sex effect. Various sensitivity and stratified analyses confirmed these trends, including results at five-year follow-up. Given these results and considering the relevant literature, we conclude that osteoporosis treatment prevents hip fracture similarly in both sexes.

AbstractPeriosteal bone turnover is poorly understood. We documented intramembranous periosteal bone turnover in the femoral neck in intact nonhuman primates and an increase in osteoclast numbers at the periosteal surface in sex steroid–deficient animals. Our studies are the first to systematically document periosteal turnover at the femoral neck.Introduction: Bone size is an important determinant of bone strength, and cellular events at the periosteal surface could alter bone dimensions. We characterized periosteal cellular activity with dynamic histomorphometric studies of nonhuman primate femoral neck and shaft.Materials and Methods: Femur specimens from 16 intact adult male and female nonhuman primates (Rhesus [Macaca mulatta, n = 9] and Japanese Macaque [Macaca fuscata, n = 7]) were analyzed. Animals were double-labeled with tetracycline, and necropsy was performed 2–7 days after the last dose. We characterized periosteal resorptive activity in an additional group of five intact and four castrate female animals. Multiple group comparisons in intact animals were performed by one-way ANOVA followed by a Fisher PLSD posthoc test. In gonadectomized animals, Fisher's exact test was used for dichotomous and Mann-Whitney U-test for continuous variables.Results: Bone turnover in the periosteum of the femoral neck in intact animals was more rapid than at the femoral shaft but slower than in femoral neck cancellous bone. Similarly, in these intact animals, the eroded surface of cortical bone at the femoral neck periosteal surface was significantly greater than in the cancellous bone compartment (p < 0.0001) or on the femoral shaft (p < 0.0001). Gonadectomized female animals showed an increase in osteoclast number on the periosteal surface compared with intact controls (p < 0.01).Conclusions: We documented intramembranous periosteal bone turnover in the femoral neck by histomorphometric analyses. The tissue level bone formation rate was sufficient to add substantively to femoral neck size over time. Periosteal osteoclastic activity was not the result of the emergence of intracortical tunneling at the bone surface. Sex steroid deficiency produced an increase in osteoclast numbers at the periosteal surface. This is the first systematic documentation of periosteal turnover at the femoral neck.