Siggeirsdóttir, Kristín

Abstract The aim of this international meta-analysis was to quantify the predictive value of BMI for incident fracture and relationship of this risk with age, sex, follow-up time, and BMD. A total of 1 667 922 men and women from 32 countries (63 cohorts), followed for a total of 16.0 million person-years were studied. 293 325 had FN BMD measured (2.2 million person-years follow-up). An extended Poisson model in each cohort was used to investigate relationships between WHO-defined BMI categories (Underweight: <18.5 kg/m2; Normal: 18.5-24.9 kg/m2; Overweight: 25.0-29.9 kg/m2; Obese I: 30.0-34.9 kg/m2; Obese II: ≥35.0 kg/m2) and risk of incident osteoporotic, major osteoporotic and hip fracture (HF). Inverse-variance weighted β-coefficients were used to merge the cohort-specific results. For the subset with BMD available, in models adjusted for age and follow-up time, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for HF comparing underweight with normal weight was 2.35 (2.10-2.60) in women and for men was 2.45 (1.90-3.17). Hip fracture risk was lower in overweight and obese categories compared to normal weight [obese II vs normal: women 0.66 (0.55-0.80); men 0.91 (0.66-1.26)]. Further adjustment for FN BMD T-score attenuated the increased risk associated with underweight [underweight vs normal: women 1.69 (1.47-1.96); men 1.46 (1.00-2.13)]. In these models, the protective effects of overweight and obesity were attenuated, and in both sexes, the direction of association reversed to higher fracture risk in Obese II category [Obese II vs Normal: women 1.24 (0.97-1.58); men 1.70 (1.06-2.75)]. Results were similar for other fracture outcomes. Underweight is a risk factor for fracture in both men and women regardless of adjustment for BMD. However, while overweight/obesity appeared protective in base models, they became risk factors after additional adjustment for FN BMD, particularly in the Obese II category. This effect in the highest BMI categories was of greater magnitude in men than women. These results will inform the second iteration of FRAX®.

Abstract Hip fracture risk rises exponentially with age, but there is little knowledge about how fracture-related alterations in hip structure differ from those of aging. We employed computed tomography (CT) imaging to visualize the three-dimensional (3D) spatial distribution of bone mineral density (BMD) in the hip in relation to age and incident hip fracture. We used intersubject image registration to integrate 3D hip CT images into a statistical atlas comprising women aged 21 to 97 years (n = 349) and a group of women with (n = 74) and without (n = 148) incident hip fracture 4 to 7 years after their imaging session. Voxel-based morphometry was used to generate Student's t test statistical maps from the atlas, which indicated regions that were significantly associated with age or with incident hip fracture. Scaling factors derived from intersubject image registration were employed as measures of bone size. BMD comparisons of young, middle-aged, and older American women showed preservation of load-bearing cortical and trabecular structures with aging, whereas extensive bone loss was observed in other trabecular and cortical regions. In contrast, comparisons of older Icelandic fracture women with age-matched controls showed that hip fracture was associated with a global cortical bone deficit, including both the superior cortical margin and the load-bearing inferior cortex. Bone size comparisons showed larger dimensions in older compared to younger American women and in older Icelandic fracture women compared to controls. The results indicate that older Icelandic women who sustain incident hip fracture have a structural phenotype that cannot be described as an accelerated pattern of normal age-related loss. The fracture-related cortical deficit noted in this study may provide a biomarker of increased hip fracture risk that may be translatable to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and other clinical images. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.