Ward, Kevin R.

Abstract Hemorrhagic shock is a common emergency that accounts for more than 10% of global mortality and up to 40% of trauma-related mortality. The Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) guidelines outline resuscitation strategies in patients with massive hemorrhage based on clinical trial and observational data. Early intervention with fluids and/or blood products is recommended during resuscitation as key to maintaining vascular patency, stabilizing a patient’s blood pressure, maintaining tissue oxygenation, and limiting shock. From a transfusion perspective, there is wide heterogeneity in the quality of blood products due to donor and manufacturing variation. The optimal transfusion strategy for massive hemorrhage remains unclear. In silico models of resuscitation may offer a means to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of various resuscitation protocols. Here we describe a stochastic multicompartment model of fluid balance and resuscitation that includes (i) cardiovascular hemodynamics, (ii) body fluid compartments and capillary solute exchange, (iii) the ability to alter hemorrhage, resuscitation, and hemostasis parameters, and (iv) tissue oxygenation and capillary-alveolar gas exchange. Building upon deterministic frameworks, this stochastic model more faithfully reflects the clinical heterogeneity of bleeding patients at a level I trauma center. This allows for a proof of concept in silico trial comparing crystalloids, conventional component therapy (CCT), i.e. red cell, platelet and plasma components, to cold-stored low titer group O whole blood (LTOWB). In an in silico cohort of ATLS class III (>30% and ≤40% blood volume lost) hemorrhage, LTOWB resuscitation reduced the time spent in the critical hemostatic window (platelet count <50x109/L, INR≥2, hemoglobin (Hgb) <8 g/dL and fibrinogen <150 mg/dL) compared with CCT (90.59 vs. 147.62 minutes; p=0.04), with no difference in predicted event-free survival (t = 240 minutes; cardiac < 1.5, fluid overload > 10% or SBP > 150% of the starting SBP, or Hgb < 3.0 g/dL). In a separate cohort of ATLS class IV (>40% blood volume lost) hemorrhage, LTOWB yielded a higher predicted event-free survival (74%) versus the CCT arm (69%, p < 0.01). We demonstrate how this in silico platform can function as a digital twin for hemorrhagic trauma enabling precision transfusion strategies, and in parallel, an operational twin to support blood banks to forecast blood product demand and inform massive transfusion protocols and clinical trial design.

Abstract Background The current global pandemic has created unprecedented challenges in the blood supply network. Given the recent shortages, there must be a civilian plan for massively bleeding patients when there are no blood products on the shelf. Recognizing that the time to death in bleeding patients is less than 2 h, timely resupply from unaffected locations is not possible. One solution is to transfuse emergency untested whole blood (EUWB), similar to the extensive military experience fine‐tuned over the last 19 years. While this concept is anathema in current civilian transfusion practice, it seems prudent to have a vetted plan in place. Methods and Materials During the early stages of the 2020 global pandemic, a multidisciplinary and international group of clinicians with broad experience in transfusion medicine communicated routinely. The result is a planning document that provides both background information and a high‐level guide on how to emergently deliver EUWB for patients who would otherwise die of hemorrhage. Results and Conclusions Similar plans have been utilized in remote locations, both on the battlefield and in civilian practice. The proposed recommendations are designed to provide high‐level guidance for experienced blood bankers, transfusion experts, clinicians, and health authorities. Like with all emergency preparedness, it is always better to have a well‐thought‐out and trained plan in place, rather than trying to develop a hasty plan in the midst of a disaster. We need to prevent the potential for empty shelves and bleeding patients dying for lack of blood.

Abstract Background: Patients achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) following neoadjuvant therapy have significantly improved event-free survival relative to those who do not; and pCR is an FDA-accepted endpoint to support accelerated approval of novel agents/combinations in the neoadjuvant treatment of high risk early stage breast cancer. Previous studies have shown that recurrence risk increased with increasing burden of residual disease (as assessed by the RCB index). As well, these studies suggest that patients with minimum residual disease (RCB-I class) also have favorable outcomes (comparable to those achieving a pCR) within high risk tumor subtypes. In this study, we assess whether integrating RCB with MRI functional tumor volume (FTV), which in itself is prognostic, can improve prediction of distant recurrence free survival (DRFS); and identify a subset of patients with minimal residual disease with comparable DRFS as those who achieved a pCR. Imaging tools can then be used to identify the subset that will do well early and guide the timing of surgical therapy. Method: We performed a pooled analysis of 596 patients from the I-SPY2 TRIAL with RCB, pre-surgical MRI FTV data and known follow-up (median 2.5 years). We first assessed whether FTV predicts residual disease (pCR or pCR/RCB-I) using ROC analysis. We applied a power transformation to normalize the pre-surgical FTV distribution; and assessed its association with DRFS using a bi-variate Cox proportional hazard model adjusting for HR/HER2 subtype. We also fitted a bivariate Cox model of RCB index adjusting for subtype; and assessed whether adding pre-surgical FTV to this model further improves association with DRFS using a likelihood ratio (LR) test. For the Cox modeling, penalized splines approximation of the transformed FTV and RCB index with 2 degrees of freedom was used to allow for non-linear effects of FTV and RCB on DRFS. Result: Pre-surgical MRI FTV is significantly associated with DRFS (Wald p&lt;0.00001), and more effective at predicting pCR/RCB-I than predicting pCR alone (AUC: 0.72 vs. 0.65). Larger pre-surgical FTV remains associated with worse DRFS adjusting for subtype (Wald p &lt;0.00001). The RCB index is also significantly associated with DRFS adjusting for subtype (Wald p&lt;0.00001). Adding FTV to a model containing RCB and subtype further improves association with DRFS (LR p=0.0007). RCB-I patients have excellent DRFS (94% at 3 years compared to 95% in the pCR group). Efforts are underway to identify an optimal threshold for dichotomizing pre-surgical FTV and FTV change measures for use in combination with pCR/RCB-I class to generate integrated RCB (iRCB) groups as a composite predictor of DRFS. Conclusion: Pre-surgical MRI FTV is effective at predicting minimal residual disease (RCB0/I) in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL. Despite the association between FTV and RCB, FTV appears to provide independent added prognostic value (to RCB and subtype), suggesting that integrating MRI volume measures and RCB into a composite predictor may improve DRFS prediction. Citation Format: Hylton NM, Symmans WF, Yau C, Li W, Hatzis C, Isaacs C, Albain KS, Chen Y-Y, Krings G, Wei S, Harada S, Datnow B, Fadare O, Klein M, Pambuccian S, Chen B, Adamson K, Sams S, Mhawech-Fauceglia P, Magliocco A, Feldman M, Rendi M, Sattar H, Zeck J, Ocal I, Tawfik O, Grasso LeBeau L, Sahoo S, Vinh T, Yang S, Adams A, Chien AJ, Ferero-Torres A, Stringer-Reasor E, Wallace A, Boughey JC, Ellis ED, Elias AD, Lang JE, Lu J, Han HS, Clark AS, Korde L, Nanda R, Northfelt DW, Khan QJ, Viscusi RK, Euhus DM, Edmiston KK, Chui SY, Kemmer K, Wood WC, Park JW, Liu MC, Olopade O, Tripathy D, Moulder SL, Rugo HS, Schwab R, Lo S, Helsten T, Beckwith H, Haugen PK, van't Veer LJ, Perlmutter J, Melisko ME, Wilson A, Peterson G, Asare AL, Buxton MB, Paoloni M, Clennell JL, Hirst GL, Singhrao R, Steeg K, Matthews JB, Sanil A, Berry SM, Abe H, Wolverton D, Crane EP, Ward KA, Nelson M, Niell BL, Oh K, Brandt KR, Bang DH, Ojeda-Fournier H, Eghtedari M, Sheth PA, Bernreuter WK, Umphrey H, Rosen MA, Dogan B, Yang W, Joe B, I-SPY 2 TRIAL Consortium, Yee D, Pusztai L, DeMichele A, Asare SM, Berry DA, Esserman LJ. Refining neoadjuvant predictors of three year distant metastasis free survival: Integrating volume change as measured by MRI with residual cancer burden [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-07-03.

The cardiovascular responses to sympathomimetic agents, the norepinephrine (NE) content in peripheral tissues, and the tissue content and cardiovascular effects of neuropeptide Y (NPY) were examined in anesthetized adult rats with guanethidine-induced sympathectomy (GuSx). We observed blunted pressor responses to tyramine, exaggerated pressor responses to phenylephrine, and markedly reduced NE contents in the atrium, femoral artery, superior cervical ganglion (SCG), and sciatic and vagus nerves. When tyramine responses were corrected for the NE content in the SCG, GuSx rats were similar to controls. A depletion of NPY levels in tissue resulted in an increased sensitivity to the pressor effects of intravenous NPY administration. GuSx, therefore, reproduces findings of postganglionic adrenergic failure in humans. Responses to the administration of sympathomimetic agents may reflect the degree of noradrenergic denervation. NPY may be a potential marker of chronic postganglionic sympathetic denervation in cardiovascular tissue.