Selvin, Elizabeth

Introduction: Diabetes, a modifiable risk factor for dementia, is thought to impart increased risk of dementia through cerebral small vessel disease. While the importance of diabetes in midlife is well-documented, the influence of different glycemic levels, duration of diabetes, and Alzheimer’s disease genetic risk (apolipoprotein [ APOE ] ε4 genotype) in late-life on dementia risk remains uncertain. This could have implications for individualized prevention strategies. In this study, we investigated whether a higher glycemic level and longer duration of diabetes in late-life is associated with a higher risk of dementia, and whether associations vary by APOE ε4 genotype. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort analysis with the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study using up to 11 years of follow-up (baseline, 2011-2013). We defined diabetes as glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA 1c ) ≥6.5%, self-reported physician diagnosis, or use of any diabetes medication. Among those with diabetes, we categorized participants as having a lower glycemic level (HbA 1c <7%) or higher level (HbA 1c ≥7%), and duration as short (<5 years) or long (≥5 years). We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for incident dementia by HbA 1c levels and by diabetes duration in separate multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. We tested for statistical multiplicative interaction on the relative risk of dementia by fitting interaction terms between diabetes measures and APOE ε4 genotype in separate regression models. Results: In 5030 participants without dementia (mean age, 75.4 years; 58.6% female; 21% Black; 28% with diabetes), there were 1167 (23.2%) incident dementia cases over a median follow-up of 9.0 years. Compared to no diabetes, a lower glycemic level and higher level were both associated with elevated dementia risk ( P -trend <.0001; Table). A higher glycemic level was associated with an elevated risk of dementia relative to a lower level (HR=1.47 [95% CI: 1.22-1.77]; Table). Compared to no diabetes, both shorter duration and longer duration were associated with an increase in dementia risk ( P -trend <.0001; Table). Longer duration was associated with an increased risk of dementia relative to shorter duration (HR=1.57 [95% CI: 1.24-1.98]; Table). Associations for glycemic level and diabetes duration did not significantly differ by APOE ε4 genotype (all P >.05). Conclusions: Diabetes management in older adults that includes lower glycemic goals may help reduce dementia risk.

ImportanceMidlife vascular risk factors are associated with an elevated risk of dementia. However, the total contribution of vascular risk factors in midlife and late life with incident dementia is uncertain.ObjectiveTo quantify the proportion of incident dementia attributable to modifiable vascular risk factors measured in midlife and late life and to examine differences by apolipoprotein ε4 genotype, self-reported race, and sex.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis was a prospective cohort analysis of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study using 33 years of follow-up (1987-2020). The setting included ARIC field centers (Jackson, Mississippi; Forsyth County, North Carolina; Minneapolis suburbs, Minnesota; Washington County, Maryland). Study baseline in Black and White participants with complete exposure and covariate data was set by age at risk factor measurement (45-54 years, 55-64 years, and 65-74 years). Data were analyzed from August 2023 to December 2024.ExposuresHypertension (systolic blood pressure [BP] ≥130 mm Hg, diastolic BP ≥80 mm Hg, or use of medication for BP), diabetes (fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL, nonfasting glucose ≥200 mg/dL, self-reported physician’s diagnosis, or use of any diabetes medication), and current smoking (self-reported).Main Outcomes and MeasuresIncident dementia. Population attributable fractions were estimated by age 80 years, and separately after 80 years, from having at least 1 vascular risk factor by age at risk factor measurement.ResultsA total of 7731 participants were included in analysis of risk factors measured at age 45 to 54 years (4494 female [58%]; 2207 Black [29%]; 5524 White [71%]), 12 274 contributed to analysis of risk factors measured at age 55 to 64 years (6698 female [55%]; 2886 Black [24%]; 9388 White [76%]), and 6787 contributed to analysis of risk factors measured at age 65 to 74 years (3764 female [56%], 1375 Black [20%]; 5412 White [80%]). There were 801, 995, and 422 dementia cases by 80 years, respectively. The fraction of dementia by 80 years attributable to at least 1 vascular factor at age 45 to 54 years was 21.8% (95% CI, 14.3%-29.3%), at 55 to 64 years was 26.4% (95% CI, 19.1%-33.6%), and at 65 to 74 years was 44.0% (95% CI, 30.9%-57.2%). Attributable fractions for these factors were higher in apolipoprotein ε4 noncarriers at age 55 years and older (range, 33.3%-61.4%), Black individuals at age 45 years and older (range, 25.5%-52.9%), and female individuals at age 55 years and older (range, 29.2%-51.3%). Only 2% to 8% of dementia cases after 80 years were attributable to these factors.Conclusions and RelevanceResults of this cohort study suggest that between 22% and 44% of incident dementia cases by 80 years in the ARIC study were attributed to midlife and late-life vascular risk factors. Assuming causal relationships, maintaining optimal vascular health across the life course could mitigate a sizeable proportion of dementia risk by 80 years.

Introduction: Vascular risk factors of hypertension, diabetes, and smoking in midlife (45-64 years) and possibly early late-life (65-74 years) are associated with increased risk of dementia. Current estimates of population attributable risk for dementia assume vascular factors are independent and do not interact to increase risk of dementia, which may underestimate the combined impact of vascular risk reduction on dementia incidence. In this study, we evaluated the joint association and interaction of vascular risk factors on risk of dementia. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort analysis using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study using up to 33 years of follow-up (1987-2020). We used age as baseline (45-54 years, n=7,731; 55-64 years, n=12,273; and 65-74 years, n=6,660). We defined hypertension as systolic blood pressure ≥130 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure ≥80 mm Hg, or anti-hypertension medication use. We defined diabetes as fasting glucose level ≥126 mg/dL, non-fasting glucose ≥200 mg/dL, self-reported physician diagnosis, or use of any diabetes medication. Current smoking was self-reported. We investigated additive and multiplicative interactions for combinations of vascular risk factors on incident (adjudicated) dementia by age 80 using joint effect variables in Cox regression models stratified by age of risk factor measurement (45-54 years, 55-64 years, or 65-74 years). For interaction analyses, parameter values >1 indicate positive interaction (synergy) and values <1 indicate negative interaction (antagonism). Results: In participants with risk factors measured in these baseline age strata, there were 801 (10%), 995 (8%), and 422 (6%) cases of incident dementia by age 80, respectively. Hypertension and diabetes exhibited positive interactions on the additive and multiplicative scales in midlife (Figure 1). Diabetes and smoking in midlife had positive additive interaction (value >1, Figure 2). All vascular risk factor combinations in late-life had negative interactions on the multiplicative scale (values <1, Figures 1-3). Conclusions: Hypertension with diabetes and diabetes with smoking, all measured in midlife, interact to increase risk of dementia by age 80. The overall impact of reducing midlife vascular risk factors on incident dementia could be sizeable. These findings highlight the importance of multifactor interventions addressing combinations of vascular risk factors for dementia prevention strategies.

AbstractBackgroundMidlife vascular risk factors are associated with an increased risk of dementia. However, the overall contribution of modifiable vascular risk factors in midlife and late‐life to dementia remains unclear. In this study, we quantified population attributable fractions, which account for risk factor prevalence and strength of relative risks, of incident dementia from vascular risk factors measured in midlife and early late‐life.MethodWe used 33 years of prospective cohort data in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Incident dementia (community surveillance and algorithmic diagnosis with expert clinical adjudication) was ascertained from baseline (1987‐1989) through December 31, 2020. We quantified population attributable fractions of incident dementia by age 80 from the combination of hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥130, diastolic blood pressure ≥80, or use of medication), diabetes (fasting glucose ≥126, non‐fasting glucose ≥200, self‐reported physician diagnosis of diabetes, or use of medication for diabetes/insulin), and self‐reported current cigarette smoking (at least one risk factor versus none) measured at different ages (45‐54 [n = 7,731], 55‐64 [n = 12,273]; 65‐74 [n = 6,660]). We also computed attributable fractions stratified by sex, apolipoprotein ε4 genotype, and self‐reported race.ResultThe prevalence of having one or more of the vascular risk factors was 61.6% (95% CI: 60.5, 62.7%) at age 45‐54 and increased to 77.5% (95% CI: 76.5, 78.5%) by age 65‐74. Population attributable fractions of dementia increased from 22.7% (95% CI: 15.3, 30.1%) for vascular risk factors measured at age 45‐54 to 45.4% (95% CI: 32.5, 58.3%) for vascular risk factors assessed at age 65‐74 (see Figure). Attributable fractions were larger in females, participants without apolipoprotein ε4 alleles, and Black participants (Figure).ConclusionBetween 23% to 45% of incident dementia cases by age 80 were attributed to a combination of hypertension, diabetes, or current smoking up through age 74. Attributable fractions for the combined impact of vascular risk varied by key demographics. Public health strategies targeting modifiable vascular risk factors could reduce dementia risk and increase healthy lifespan.

Abstract Background Relationships of midlife inflammation with late‐life mobility and influences of chronic health conditions, race, and social determinants of health (SDoH) on these relationships are poorly understood. Methods Among 4758 community‐dwelling participants (41% men, 20% Black), high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein (hsCRP) was measured over 20+ years: in midlife at study visit 2 (V2: 1990–1992, 47–68 years); at V4 (1996–1998, 53–74 years); and with concurrent late‐life 4‐m gait speed at V5 (2011–2013, 67‐88 years, mean 75 years). SDoH measures included race, the national‐rank area deprivation index, education, and income. We examined associations of late‐life gait speed with midlife hsCRP (V2 continuous and clinically high ≥3 mg/L), with 20‐year hsCRP history from midlife (V2–V5 average continuous hsCRP and clinically high ≥3 mg/L) and with inflammation accumulation (visits and years with high hsCRP). Regression models adjusted for demographic, cardiovascular, and SDoH measures; effect modification by the presence of other common chronic conditions (obesity, diabetes, hypertension) and race were examined, with and without accounting for SDoH. Results High midlife hsCRP was associated with slower late‐life gait speed, even among those without chronic conditions in midlife: −4.6 cm/s (95% CI: −6.4, −2.8). Importantly, sustained high hsCRP was associated with a 20‐year slowing of −10.0 cm/s (−14.9, −5.1) among those who never experienced obesity, diabetes, or hypertension over the 20‐year period. Associations were similar between Black participants, −3.8 cm/s (−6.9, −0.7) and White participants −3.3 (−4.5, −2.2) per interquartile range of midlife hsCRP; effect modifications by chronic conditions and race were unsupported throughout. Results were robust to accounting for SDoH or otherwise; however, worse SDoH was associated with higher inflammation and slower gait speed in both Black and White participants. Conclusions Inflammation in midlife may contribute to clinically meaningful late‐life slowing of gait speed, even among otherwise healthy‐appearing adults and regardless of race and socioeconomic disadvantage. Regular monitoring and interventions for inflammation may be warranted from midlife.

ImportanceClonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) may contribute to the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) through its association with inflammation and cardiac remodeling.ObjectiveTo determine whether CHIP was associated with AF, inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers, and cardiac structural changes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis was a population-based, prospective cohort study in participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and UK Biobank (UKB) cohort. Samples were collected and echocardiography was performed from 2011 to 2013 in the ARIC cohort, and samples were collected from 2006 to 2010 in the UKB cohort. Included in this study were adults without hematologic malignancies, mitral valve stenosis, or previous mitral valve procedure from both the ARIC and UKB cohorts; additionally, participants without hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and congenital heart disease from the UKB cohort were also included. Data analysis was completed in 2023.ExposuresCHIP (variant allele frequency [VAF] ≥2%), common gene-specific CHIP subtypes (DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1), large CHIP (VAF ≥10%), inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin 6 [IL-6], IL-18, high-sensitivity troponin T [hs-TnT] and hs-TnI, N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide), and echocardiographic indices.Main Outcome MeasureIncident AF.ResultsA total of 199 982 adults were included in this study. In ARIC participants (4131 [2.1%]; mean [SD] age, 76 [5] years; 2449 female [59%]; 1682 male [41%]; 935 Black [23%] and 3196 White [77%]), 1019 had any CHIP (24.7%), and 478 had large CHIP (11.6%). In UKB participants (195 851 [97.9%]; mean [SD] age, 56 [8] years; 108 370 female [55%]; 87 481 male [45%]; 3154 Black [2%], 183 747 White [94%], and 7971 other race [4%]), 11 328 had any CHIP (5.8%), and 5189 had large CHIP (2.6%). ARIC participants were followed up for a median (IQR) period of 7.0 (5.3-7.7) years, and UKB participants were followed up for a median (IQR) period of 12.2 (11.3-13.0) years. Meta-analyzed hazard ratios for AF were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.25; P = .04) for participants with vs without large CHIP, 1.29 (95% CI, 1.05-1.59; P = .02) for those with vs without large TET2 CHIP (seen in 1340 of 197 209 [0.67%]), and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.02-2.07; P = .04) for those with vs without large ASXL1 CHIP (seen in 314 of 197 209 [0.16%]). Large TET2 CHIP was associated with higher IL-6 levels. Additionally, large ASXL1 was associated with higher hs-TnT level and increased left ventricular mass index.Conclusions and RelevanceLarge TET2 and ASXL1, but not DNMT3A, CHIP was associated with higher IL-6 level, indices of cardiac remodeling, and increased risk for AF. Future research is needed to elaborate on the mechanisms driving the associations and to investigate potential interventions to reduce the risk.

Introduction: Aging and inflammation are associated with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), to which clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) may contribute. We investigated whether CHIP was associated with AF, inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers and cardiac structural changes. Methods: We ascertained CHIP (variant allele frequency, VAF ≥2%) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Community Study (ARIC visit-5, n = 4,131) and the UK Biobank (UKBB, n = 195,851) participants. Using multivariable Cox regression models, we studied the association of CHIP and the top three implicated genes (i.e., DNMT3A , TET2 , ASXL1 ) with incident AF and conducted a meta-analysis on both cohorts. We also ascertained high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin 6 (IL6), IL18, high-sensitivity troponin T and I (hs-TnT and hs-TnI), NT-proBNP, and echocardiography indices in ARIC. We first standardized the natural log of all markers (st-ln) and used the adjusted quantile regression to compare the median in those with and without CHIP. Results: In ARIC, the mean ± SD age was 75.8 ± 5.2 years, 41% were men, 23% were Black, 25% had CHIP, and 11.6% had large CHIP (VAF ≥10%). These measures in UKBB were 56.4 ± 8.1 years, 45%, 2%, 5.8%, and 2.6%, respectively. In the meta-analysis, compared to those without CHIP, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for AF were 1.12 (1.01 - 1.25, P =0.035), 1.31 (1.07 - 1.60, P =0.009), and 1.48 (1.05 - 2.08, P =0.026) for Large-CHIP, Large- TET2, and Large- ASXL1 , respectively. hs-CRP and IL18 levels were similar in those with and without CHIP as well as gene-specific subgroups. Large- TET2 and ASXL1 were associated with higher IL6, which was separately associated with AF. Additionally, Large- ASXL1 was associated with increased left ventricle mass index and NT-proBNP (coefficients in Figure 1 ). Conclusion: Large TET2 and ASXL1 but not DNMT3A CHIP is associated with higher IL6 levels, indices of cardiac remodeling, and an increased risk of AF.