Fox, Nick C

Accurate prediction of progression in subjects at risk of Alzheimer's disease is crucial for enrolling the right subjects in clinical trials. However, a prospective comparison of state-of-the-art algorithms for predicting disease onset and progression is currently lacking. We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of patient-specific biomarkers. On a limited, cross-sectional subset of the data emulating clinical trials, performance of the best algorithms at predicting clinical diagnosis decreased only slightly (2 percentage points) compared to the full longitudinal dataset. The submission system remains open via the website https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, while TADPOLE SHARE (https://tadpole-share.github.io/) collates code for submissions. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Abstract Neurofilament light chain, a putative measure of neuronal damage, is measurable in blood and CSF and is predictive of cognitive function in individuals with Alzheimer’s disease. There has been limited prior work linking neurofilament light and functional connectivity, and no prior work has investigated neurofilament light associations with functional connectivity in autosomal dominant Alzheimer’s disease. Here, we assessed relationships between blood neurofilament light, cognition, and functional connectivity in a cross-sectional sample of 106 autosomal dominant Alzheimer’s disease mutation carriers and 76 non-carriers. We employed an innovative network-level enrichment analysis approach to assess connectome-wide associations with neurofilament light. Neurofilament light was positively correlated with deterioration of functional connectivity within the default mode network and negatively correlated with connectivity between default mode network and executive control networks, including the cingulo-opercular, salience, and dorsal attention networks. Further, reduced connectivity within the default mode network and between the default mode network and executive control networks was associated with reduced cognitive function. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that neurofilament levels and functional connectivity within the default mode network and between the default mode network and the dorsal attention network explained significant variance in cognitive composite scores when controlling for age, sex, and education. A mediation analysis demonstrated that functional connectivity within the default mode network and between the default mode network and dorsal attention network partially mediated the relationship between blood neurofilament light levels and cognitive function. Our novel results indicate that blood estimates of neurofilament levels correspond to direct measurements of brain dysfunction, shedding new light on the underlying biological processes of Alzheimer’s disease. Further, we demonstrate how variation within key brain systems can partially mediate the negative effects of heightened total serum neurofilament levels, suggesting potential regions for targeted interventions. Finally, our results lend further evidence that low-cost and minimally invasive blood measurements of neurofilament may be a useful marker of brain functional connectivity and cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease.

Background: Estimates of ‘brain-predicted age’ quantify apparent brain age compared to normative trajectories of neuroimaging features. The brain age gap (BAG) between predicted and chronological age is elevated in symptomatic Alzheimer disease (AD) but has not been well explored in presymptomatic AD. Prior studies have typically modeled BAG with structural MRI, but more recently other modalities, including functional connectivity (FC) and multimodal MRI, have been explored. Methods: We trained three models to predict age from FC, structural (S), or multimodal MRI (S+FC) in 390 amyloid-negative cognitively normal (CN/A−) participants (18–89 years old). In independent samples of 144 CN/A−, 154 CN/A+, and 154 cognitively impaired (CI; CDR > 0) participants, we tested relationships between BAG and AD biomarkers of amyloid and tau, as well as a global cognitive composite. Results: All models predicted age in the control training set, with the multimodal model outperforming the unimodal models. All three BAG estimates were significantly elevated in CI compared to controls. FC-BAG was significantly reduced in CN/A+ participants compared to CN/A−. In CI participants only, elevated S-BAG and S+FC BAG were associated with more advanced AD pathology and lower cognitive performance. Conclusions: Both FC-BAG and S-BAG are elevated in CI participants. However, FC and structural MRI also capture complementary signals. Specifically, FC-BAG may capture a unique biphasic response to presymptomatic AD pathology, while S-BAG may capture pathological progression and cognitive decline in the symptomatic stage. A multimodal age-prediction model improves sensitivity to healthy age differences. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (P01-AG026276, P01- AG03991, P30-AG066444, 5-R01-AG052550, 5-R01-AG057680, 1-R01-AG067505, 1S10RR022984-01A1, and U19-AG032438), the BrightFocus Foundation (A2022014F), and the Alzheimer’s Association (SG-20-690363-DIAN).

Abstract Background Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) is a promising candidate blood‐based biomarker for Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis and prognostication. The timing of its disease‐associated changes, its clinical correlates, and biofluid‐type dependency will influence its clinical utility. Methods We evaluated plasma, serum, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) GFAP in families with autosomal dominant AD (ADAD), leveraging the predictable age at symptom onset to determine changes by stage of disease. Results Plasma GFAP elevations appear a decade before expected symptom onset, after amyloid beta (Aβ) accumulation and prior to neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. Plasma GFAP distinguished Aβ‐positive from Aβ‐negative ADAD participants and showed a stronger relationship with Aβ load in asymptomatic than symptomatic ADAD. Higher plasma GFAP was associated with the degree and rate of neurodegeneration and cognitive impairment. Serum GFAP showed similar relationships, but these were less pronounced for CSF GFAP. Conclusion Our findings support a role for plasma GFAP as a clinical biomarker of Aβ‐related astrocyte reactivity that is associated with cognitive decline and neurodegeneration. Highlights Plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) elevations appear a decade before expected symptom onset in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease (ADAD). Plasma GFAP was associated to amyloid positivity in asymptomatic ADAD. Plasma GFAP increased with clinical severity and predicted disease progression. Plasma and serum GFAP carried similar information in ADAD, while cerebrospinal fluid GFAP did not.

ObjectiveTo determine the characteristics of participants with amyloid‐related imaging abnormalities (ARIA) in a trial of gantenerumab or solanezumab in dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease (DIAD).Methods142 DIAD mutation carriers received either gantenerumab SC (n = 52), solanezumab IV (n = 50), or placebo (n = 40). Participants underwent assessments with the Clinical Dementia Rating® (CDR®), neuropsychological testing, CSF biomarkers, β‐amyloid positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to monitor ARIA. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal analyses evaluated potential ARIA‐related risk factors.ResultsEleven participants developed ARIA‐E, including 3 with mild symptoms. No ARIA‐E was reported under solanezumab while gantenerumab was associated with ARIA‐E compared to placebo (odds ratio [OR] = 9.1, confidence interval [CI][1.2, 412.3]; p = 0.021). Under gantenerumab, APOE‐ɛ4 carriers were more likely to develop ARIA‐E (OR = 5.0, CI[1.0, 30.4]; p = 0.055), as were individuals with microhemorrhage at baseline (OR = 13.7, CI[1.2, 163.2]; p = 0.039). No ARIA‐E was observed at the initial 225 mg/month gantenerumab dose, and most cases were observed at doses >675 mg. At first ARIA‐E occurrence, all ARIA‐E participants were amyloid‐PET+, 60% were CDR >0, 60% were past their estimated year to symptom onset, and 60% had also incident ARIA‐H. Most ARIA‐E radiologically resolved after dose adjustment and developing ARIA‐E did not significantly increase odds of trial discontinuation. ARIA‐E was more frequently observed in the occipital lobe (90%). ARIA‐E severity was associated with age at time of ARIA‐E.InterpretationIn DIAD, solanezumab was not associated with ARIA. Gantenerumab dose over 225 mg increased ARIA‐E risk, with additional risk for individuals APOE‐ɛ4(+) or with microhemorrhage. ARIA‐E was reversible on MRI in most cases, generally asymptomatic, without additional risk for trial discontinuation. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:729–744

Abstract Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) is a promising candidate blood-based biomarker for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnosis and prognostication. The timing of its disease-associated changes, its clinical correlates, and biofluid-type dependency will influence its clinical utility. We evaluated plasma, serum, and CSF GFAP in families with autosomal dominant AD (ADAD), leveraging the predictable age at symptom onset to determine changes by stage of disease. Plasma GFAP elevations appear a decade before expected symptom onset, after β-amyloid accumulation and prior to neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. Plasma GFAP distinguished β-amyloid-positive from β-amyloid-negative ADAD participants and showed a stronger relationship with β-amyloid load in asymptomatic than symptomatic ADAD. Higher plasma GFAP was associated with the degree and rate of neurodegeneration and cognitive impairment. Serum GFAP showed similar relationships, but these were less pronounced for CSF GFAP. Our findings support a role for plasma GFAP as a clinical biomarker for β-amyloid-associated cognitive deterioration in AD.

AbstractIntroductionAs knowledge about neurological examination findings in autosomal dominant Alzheimer disease (ADAD) is incomplete, we aimed to determine the frequency and significance of neurological examination findings in ADAD.MethodsFrequencies of neurological examination findings were compared between symptomatic mutation carriers and non mutation carriers from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN) to define AD neurological examination findings. AD neurological examination findings were analyzed regarding frequency, association with and predictive value regarding cognitive decline, and association with brain atrophy in symptomatic mutation carriers.ResultsAD neurological examination findings included abnormal deep tendon reflexes, gait disturbance, pathological cranial nerve examination findings, tremor, abnormal finger to nose and heel to shin testing, and compromised motor strength. The frequency of AD neurological examination findings was 65.1%. Cross‐sectionally, mutation carriers with AD neurological examination findings showed a more than two‐fold faster cognitive decline and had greater parieto‐temporal atrophy, including hippocampal atrophy. Longitudinally, AD neurological examination findings predicted a significantly greater decline over time.DiscussionADAD features a distinct pattern of neurological examination findings that is useful to estimate prognosis and may inform clinical care and therapeutic trial designs.

AbstractThe extent to which the pathophysiology of autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease corresponds to the pathophysiology of ‘sporadic’ late onset Alzheimer's disease is unknown, thus limiting the extrapolation of study findings and clinical trial results in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease to late onset Alzheimer's disease.We compared brain MRI and amyloid PET data, as well as CSF concentrations of amyloid-β42, amyloid-β40, tau and tau phosphorylated at position 181, in 292 carriers of pathogenic variants for Alzheimer's disease from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network, with corresponding data from 559 participants from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Imaging data and CSF samples were reprocessed as appropriate to guarantee uniform pipelines and assays. Data analyses yielded rates of change before and after symptomatic onset of Alzheimer's disease, allowing the alignment of the ∼30-year age difference between the cohorts on a clinically meaningful anchor point, namely the participant age at symptomatic onset.Biomarker profiles were similar for both autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease and late onset Alzheimer's disease. Both groups demonstrated accelerated rates of decline in cognitive performance and in regional brain volume loss after symptomatic onset. Although amyloid burden accumulation as determined by PET was greater after symptomatic onset in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease than in late onset Alzheimer's disease participants, CSF assays of amyloid-β42, amyloid-β40, tau and p-tau181 were largely overlapping in both groups. Rates of change in cognitive performance and hippocampal volume loss after symptomatic onset were more aggressive for autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease participants.These findings suggest a similar pathophysiology of autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease and late onset Alzheimer's disease, supporting a shared pathobiological construct.

AbstractINTRODUCTIONAs the number of biomarkers used to study Alzheimer's disease (AD) continues to increase, it is important to understand the utility of any given biomarker, as well as what additional information a biomarker provides when compared to others.METHODSWe used hierarchical clustering to group 19 cross‐sectional biomarkers in autosomal dominant AD. Feature selection identified biomarkers that were the strongest predictors of mutation status and estimated years from symptom onset (EYO). Biomarkers identified included clinical assessments, neuroimaging, cerebrospinal fluid amyloid, and tau, and emerging biomarkers of neuronal integrity and inflammation.RESULTSThree primary clusters were identified: neurodegeneration, amyloid/tau, and emerging biomarkers. Feature selection identified amyloid and tau measures as the primary predictors of mutation status and EYO. Emerging biomarkers of neuronal integrity and inflammation were relatively weak predictors.DISCUSSIONThese results provide novel insight into our understanding of the relationships among biomarkers and the staging of biomarkers based on disease progression.