Al‐Mallah, Mouaz H.

Summary Background Body composition is recognized as a major determinant of health outcomes, but its multidimensional nature makes clinical adoption challenging. We sought to develop and validate a body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality risk assessment, integrating variables of six body composition tissues. Methods We analyzed 28509 consecutive patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging with routine low-dose chest CT attenuation correction (CTAC) scans acquired during myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) at 12 centers across four countries. An artificial intelligence-based BCI was developed in a cohort of 15037 patients’ CTACs by integrating the CT-derived metrics of bone, skeletal muscle, and four adipose tissue compartments, coronary artery calcium score, and basic demographic variables (age, sex, BMI). The performance of BCI for mortality prediction was validated in an internal cohort of 6444 patients and an external cohort of 7028 patients by prognosis, calibration, net benefit, and explainability. Model-based simulation of tissue metrics modification was performed to evaluate estimated mortality risk reduction. Findings During a median of 3.5 (IQR [1.9, 5.1]) years, 4697 (16%) patients died. In the external testing cohort, the BCI demonstrated excellent discrimination for mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78 (95% CI [0.76, 0.79]) and Harrell’s concordance index 0.75 [0.73, 0.76]), calibration, and net benefit overall and across pre-specified subgroups stratified by patient characteristics and imaging protocols. Visceral adipose tissue attenuation was the most influential body composition measure, followed by skeletal muscle volume. Simulated improvement in body composition was associated with significant mortality risk reduction. Interpretation An index combining six body composition measures obtained opportunistically from routine chest CT provides robust mortality risk stratification. By converting complex body composition information into a single interpretable score, the BCI can facilitate clinical implementation of opportunistic CT biomarkers and guide individualized preventive strategies. Funding National Institute of Health Research in context Evidence before this study We searched PubMed and Google Scholar on July 7, 2026 for English language studies using the terms (“mortality prediction” OR “death prediction”) AND (“integrated body composition analysis” OR “body composition metrics integration”) AND (“predictive model” OR “model development”), and identified 41 publications describing predictive models incorporating body composition metrics. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled increasingly granular quantification of body composition from CT, with multiple tissues and tissue-specific metrics showing independent prognostic value for all-cause mortality (ACM) prediction. However, reported associations of body composition metrics with mortality risk were highly inconsistent or even contradictory across studies. This heterogeneity likely reflected the differences in study design or the inherent complexity of body composition analysis, such as the interaction among variables derived from multiple tissues. Thus, it is difficult to interpret body composition results reliably in clinical practice. We hypothesized that integrating multiple body composition metrics could achieve comprehensive and reliable prediction of mortality across patient populations. Added value of this study In this large international, multicenter longitudinal cohort study of 28509 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging across 12 sites in four countries, we developed and externally validated an artificial intelligence-based body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality prediction. The BCI integrated chest CT-derived metrics of six body composition tissue compartments – bone, skeletal muscle (SM), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), intramuscular adipose tissue (IMAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT), together with demographics (age, sex, BMI) and CT-derived coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, all derived automatically from routine low-dose attenuation correction CT scans without additional imaging or laboratory tests. In an external validation cohort of 7028 patients, the BCI achieved robust discrimination for mortality prediction, substantially outperforming a baseline model using demographics and calcium score alone, and exceeded the discriminative performance of prior body composition models. Performance was consistent across subgroups defined by sex, age, body mass index, cardiometabolic risk factors, imaging modality, and acquisition protocol, supporting generalizability across clinical settings. The BCI demonstrated excellent calibration and net clinical benefit. Explainability analysis identified visceral adipose tissue attenuation and skeletal muscle volume as the dominant contributors to mortality risk, offering tissue-specific therapeutic targets that complement generic weight-based metrics. Model-based simulations suggested that improvements in these specific compartments could reduce estimated mortality risk more effectively than equivalent changes in BMI alone, pointing toward precision therapeutic targets beyond weight reduction. Our study improved over previous literatures on body composition-based predictive models in one or more of the following ways: (1) we considered six types of body composition tissues while existing studies considered only three or less tissues, thus significantly higher granularity and improved ability to capture refined tissue interactions; (2) our model was rigorously validated in external sites, showing cross-site generalizability while most previous work lacked external validation; (3) our model achieved significant prediction performance improvement over previous body composition predictive models, offering better clinical outcomes prediction and facilitating the suitability for widespread clinical adoption; (4) our study was conducted with a large multi-center cohort across multiple countries, achieving statistical power and demonstrating reliability towards patients characteristics and imaging acquisition protocols while previous studies involved small single-center cohorts; (5) our model required only CT scans and basic demographics which were widely available in clinical routine while the existing models required dedicated laboratory tests or specialized imaging modalities, enhancing the applicability in routine clinical practice. Implications of all the available evidence BCI offers an explainable and clinically deployable tool for improved prediction of mortality risk from existing chest CT scans. Its use could inform updates to existing risk models, guide precision preventive strategies, and support development of therapeutics targeting specific body composition phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Although the prognostic utility of positron emission tomography (PET) myocardial flow reserve (MFR) is well established, emerging data suggest that reduced subendocardial flows also predict adverse outcomes. However, the incremental value of subendocardial MFR (MFR SE ) beyond transmural MFR (MFR TM ) remains unclear. METHODS: We studied patients in a multicenter PET registry with normal perfusion on stress/rest Rb-82 PET, excluding those with a previous history of coronary artery bypass surgery, heart transplantation, or left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. The optimal MFR SE cutoff for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; death, myocardial infarction [MI], revascularization, or heart failure [HF] hospitalization) was determined using Youden’s index. Patients were stratified into 3 groups: concordant-normal (MFR TM ≥2.0; MFR SE ≥2.1), discordant (low-MFR SE , normal MFR TM ), and abnormal MFR TM . Clinical outcomes were compared by MFR groups. RESULTS: Among 6603 patients (normal N=4103; discordant N=885; abnormal N=1615) the mean age was 66.3±12.4 years, and 54% were women. Compared with the concordant-normal group, patients with discordant low-MFR SE were older and more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, peripheral artery disease, and previous percutaneous coronary intervention. The median MFR TM for normal, discordant, and abnormal groups were 2.86, 2.15, and 1.72, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 4.9 years, 1661 MACE events occurred. Discordant low-MFR SE patients had a higher risk of MACE (hazard ratio [HR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.22–1.64) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.14–1.61) compared with concordant-normal patients. The discordant group had an intermediate absolute risk of MACE, with an adjusted annualized event rate of 5.79% (95% CI, 5.10–6.49) compared with 3.99% (95% CI, 3.67–4.30; P <0.001) in the concordant-normal group and 8.35% (95% CI, 7.71–9.00; P <0.001) in the abnormal MFR TM group. CONCLUSIONS: Subendocardial MFR reveals clinically meaningful risk heterogeneity among patients with preserved transmural flow reserve, helping refine risk stratification beyond traditional PET metrics.

ABSTRACT Background Anemia is an established marker of cardiovascular disease severity and risk which leads to elevations in resting myocardial blood flow (MBF) and impaired myocardial flow reserve (MFR) in patients without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Anemia can potentially be detected opportunistically from blood pool density changes on computed tomography (CT) imaging. Objectives We evaluated relationships between chamber density measurements with hemoglobin, positron emission tomography (PET) findings, and cardiovascular events. Methods We included 33460 patients from 13 sites in the REFINE-PET who underwent PET and 24368 patients undergoing lung cancer screening chest CT. A deep learning model segmented cardiac chambers from CT images, then quantified chamber density. We evaluated the relationship between chamber density measures with resting MBF and MFR, as well as associations with death or myocardial infarction (MI). Results We included a total of 57,828 patients. A higher density in myocardium compared to left ventricle blood pool was associated with reduced MFR (adjusted odds ratio 3.02 per SD increase, 95% confidence interval[CI] 2.72 – 3.38) and an increased risk of death or MI in (adjusted hazard ratio[HR] 1.38 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.26-1.51). Having myocardial density higher than blood pool density was also associated with cardiovascular death in patients undergoing low-dose chest CT (adjusted HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.20-2.52). Conclusions In a large multimodality dataset, lower cardiac chamber density is associated with impaired MFR and independently associated with cardiovascular events. These biomarkers can be automatically extracted from CT to provide physiologic insights and potentially guide patient care. CONDENSED ABSTRACT Anemia is an important marker of cardiovascular disease severity and predictor of cardiovascular events. We utilized deep learning to measure cardiac chamber density on computed tomography imaging as a surrogate for anemia in 57,828 patients from two large multicenter studies. A higher density in myocardium compared to left ventricle blood pool was associated with reduced MFR and an increased risk of death or MI in patients undergoing positron emission tomography, and an increased risk of cardiovascular death in patients undergoing low-dose computed tomography. These biomarkers can provide additionally physiologic insights which could be used to guide patient care.

ABSTRACT Aims Exercise capacity is a powerful predictor of cardiovascular risk. In patients unable to exercise, body composition analysis can potentially be used to estimate cardiorespiratory fitness. We developed a body composition “fitness” score, then validated its utility in two external populations. Methods and Results We included patients from four sites undergoing single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and twelve sites undergoing positron emission tomography (PET). We quantified body composition using deep learning. We evaluated associations between body composition and good exercise capacity (defined as completing ≥7 minutes on a Bruce protocol) then developed a body composition “fitness” score. We then assessed the associations of “fitness” score with exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in external populations. In total, 36471 patients were included with median age 67 (interquartile range 58 – 74). Median skeletal muscle density was higher among patients with good exercise capacity. In the external SPECT population, the body composition “fitness” score had higher prediction performance for good exercise capacity (AUC 0.771, 95% CI 0.752 – 0.789) than age (AUC 0.717, p<0.01). In the external PET population, high body composition “fitness” score was associated with lower cardiovascular death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.70, 95% CI 0.62 – 0.79, p<0.001). Conclusions We demonstrated that a comprehensive body composition “fitness” score could identify patients with good cardiorespiratory fitness. This approach transforms routinely acquired CT data into a surrogate marker of fitness which can be applied in patients undergoing PET, or other CT imaging, where exercise testing is not performed. Graphical Abstract Overview of study design. The overall population (n=36471) was split as outlined above. Body composition was analyzed from available computed tomography imaging. The distribution of body composition measures were analyzed in the combined single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) populations. A body composition “fitness” score was derived to predict good exercise capacity in the internal population, with associations assessed in the two external testing populations.

Abstract Purpose Spatial distribution of coronary artery calcium (CAC) may provide additional prognostic value in patients undergoing SPECT and PET myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI). We aimed to automatically identify CAC in proximal segments from attenuation correction CT (CTAC) scans using artificial intelligence (AI) and to evaluate prognostic significance in two large international multicenter registries. Methods From hybrid MPI/CT imaging (N=43,099) across 15 sites, we included 4,552 most relevant patients with 1) no prior coronary artery disease; 2) AI-derived mild CAC scores (1-99); and 3) normal perfusion (stress total perfusion deficit <5%). The independent associations between AI-identified proximal CAC and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM) were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression, likelihood ratio test (LRT), and continuous net reclassification index (NRI). Results Among the patients with mild CAC and normal perfusion (mean age 65±12 years, 51% male), 1,730 (38%) had proximal CAC. Over 3.6 (inter-quartile interval 2.1, 5.2) years follow-up, 599 (13%) and 444 (10%) patients had MACE or ACM, respectively. Proximal CAC was associated with an increased risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.03–1.48, P=0.02) and ACM (adjusted HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.01–1.53, P=0.04) after the adjustment of CAC score and density, clinical risk factors, and perfusion deficit. Proximal CAC improved the risk stratification of MACE (LRT P=0.02; NRI 12%) and ACM (LRT P=0.04; NRI 12%). Conclusion In patients with mild CAC and normal perfusion, AI detection of proximal CAC identified a higher-risk group for adverse outcomes, highlighting its prognostic utility. Graphical Abstract From patients who underwent hybrid myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) from 15 sites, we analyzed those without prior coronary artery disease (CAD), mild coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores (1-99), and normal perfusion (stress total perfusion deficit <5%). A previously developed AI model was used to identify CAC lesions in proximal coronary segments on CT attenuation correction maps (CTAC). We evaluated associations with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM), showing risk stratification of proximal CAC and improvement by net reclassification index (NRI). CAC lesion color: green, left anterior descending artery (LAD) with left main artery; red, left circumflex artery (LCX); yellow, right coronary artery (RCA). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) are shown with 95% confidence intervals.

Abstract Background Quantitative myocardial blood flow (MBF) and myocardial flow reserve (MFR) provide incremental diagnostic and prognostic value in cardiac PET, but their widespread use is limited by the technical demands of dynamic imaging protocols. We evaluated the feasibility of using artificial intelligence (AI) to predict MBF and MFR from static and gated PET images, without the need for dynamic acquisition. Methods A machine learning (XGBoost) model was trained on 82Rb PET multi-center dataset using static perfusion imaging, injected dose, hemodynamic measures, clinical data and CT-derived features (including body composition) from the hybrid CT attenuation scan. Model performance was evaluated externally in an independent cohort. Results In total, 10,566 (derivation-cohort) and 7,842 (external-cohort) patients were included in this multi-center study. On the external-cohort, AI approach achieved an Area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92 (0.92–0.93) for abnormal stress MBF and 0.91 (0.90–0.92) for abnormal MFR; Intra-class correlation (ICC) 0.80 (0.78–0.82) and 0.78 (0.76–0.79), respectively. AI MFR closely mirrored the prognostic performance of measured MFR, showing nearly identical Kaplan–Meier risk stratification (both p<0.0001) and maintaining strong, and independently significant associations with all-cause mortality (HR 3.4 [2.8–4.2] vs. 4.6 [3.6–5.8]; both p<0.001), and demonstrated similar added value to perfusion for mortality prediction. Conclusion AI-predicted virtual stress MBF and MFR assessment using static and gated PET data is feasible and generalizable across cohorts. By removing the dependency on dynamic acquisitions, this approach has the potential to broaden the clinical adoption of flow quantification. STRUCTURED GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT PET: Positron Emission Tomography, CT: Computed Tomography, MFR: Myocardial Flow Reserve Key Question: Can machine learning models trained on dynamic PET datasets accurately predict regional stress myocardial blood flow (MBF) and myocardial flow reserve (MFR) from static image features, physiological parameters, and CT-based anatomical measures? Key Finding: Artificial intelligence can accurately estimate MBF and MFR from non-dynamic PET data, with strong agreement to reference standards. Take-home Message: By eliminating reliance on dynamic PET acquisitions, machine-learning has the potential to broaden clinical adoption of quantitative flow assessment.

ABSTRACT Introduction Positron emission tomography (PET) myocardial flow reserve (MFR) is a robust indicator of coronary vascular health and a strong predictor of cardiovascular risk. Clinical guidelines typically use fixed MFR thresholds (e.g., <2.0) to stratify risk, yet this approach overlooks individual variation, particularly by age and sex. We aimed to establish age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles and to evaluate their prognostic and predictive performance for cardiovascular risk assessment, in comparison with conventional fixed-threshold MFR approach. Methods Using data from the REFINE PET registry (24,820 patients from 12 sites), we measured PET MFR and derived age- and sex-adjusted MFR reference percentiles using quantile regression in patients without known coronary artery disease. All patients were categorized into percentile-based quartile groups. The primary outcome for prognostic and prediction analyses was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or heart-failure hospitalization. Time-to-event associations were evaluated using covariate-adjusted survival models, with cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HR) estimated at 1 and 5 years in the derivation dataset, an independent but similar validation dataset A, and a high-risk validation dataset B. Predictive performance for MACE was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and reclassification metrics, comparing percentile-based models with models using a fixed MFR threshold (<2.0). Results Among participants (mean age 66.5 years; median follow-up 3.6 years), age- and sex-adjusted MFR quartile groups were strong independent predictors of MACE, with adjusted HR increasing stepwise across quartile groups at both early and later follow-up. At 1 year, HR (95% CI) comparing the lowest to the highest quartile group were 4.06 (3.41–4.82) in the derivation cohort, 3.31 (2.32–4.71) in validation cohort A, and 2.35 (2.05–2.70) in validation cohort B. At 5 years, the corresponding HR were 2.18 (1.86–2.56), 1.77 (1.31–2.40), and 1.59 (1.36–1.86). Percentile-based models demonstrated consistently higher discrimination, better calibration, and greater net reclassification for MACE at both time points compared with fixed-threshold MFR models. Although 67.2% of patients had preserved MFR (>2.0), cardiovascular risk increased steadily across MFR percentiles even within this range. Conclusion Age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles provide a reliable, clinically actionable measure of vascular health, improving cardiovascular risk stratification by better capturing age- and sex-related heterogeneity in vascular risk. Compared with traditional fixed-threshold approaches, MFR percentiles demonstrate improved predictive performance for cardiovascular risk assessment across diverse patient populations. CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE What is new? In a large, multinational real-world registry of more than 24,000 patients undergoing PET MPI, we derived age- and sex-adjusted myocardial flow reserve (MFR) percentiles, establishing a lifespan-based reference framework with age-specific reference values. Age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles showed a strong, graded association with 1- and 5-year cardiovascular risk and demonstrated improved prognostic and predictive performance compared with fixed MFR thresholds and models without MFR across independent derivation and validation datasets, including a higher-risk cohort. Lower adjusted MFR percentiles were consistently associated with higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, including all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and heart-failure hospitalization. What are the clinical implications? Age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles provide a personalized, dynamic measure of coronary vascular health that improves cardiovascular risk stratification by accounting for age- and sex-related heterogeneity. A percentile-based approach may help clinicians better identify patients at elevated cardiovascular risk who may warrant closer monitoring or intensified preventive strategies, while avoiding unnecessary intervention in lower-risk individuals. By integrating macrovascular and microvascular dysfunction, age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles offer a clinically interpretable marker of vascular aging that may inform future research on aging biomarkers, novel therapeutics and cardiovascular risk assessment across the spectrum of atherosclerotic and microvascular disease.

Background Coronary microvascular function and hemodynamics may play a role in coronary circulation and myocardial remodeling in patients with aortic stenosis (AS). We aimed to evaluate the relationship between myocardial blood flow and myocardial function in patients with AS, no AS, and aortic valve sclerosis. Methods and Results We included consecutive patients who had resting transthoracic echocardiography and clinically indicated positron emission tomography myocardial perfusion imaging to capture their left ventricular ejection fraction, global longitudinal strain (GLS), and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular event (all‐cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or late revascularization). There were 2778 patients (208 with aortic sclerosis, 39 with prosthetic aortic valve, 2406 with no AS, and 54, 49, and 22 with mild, moderate, and severe AS, respectively). Increasing AS severity was associated with impaired MFR ( P <0.001) and GLS ( P <0.001), even when perfusion was normal. Statistically significant associations were noted between MFR and GLS, MFR and left ventricular ejection fraction, and MFR and left ventricular ejection fraction reserve. After a median follow‐up of 349 (interquartile range, 116–662) days, 4 (7.4%), 5 (10.2%), and 6 (27.3%) patients experienced a major adverse cardiovascular event in the mild, moderate, and severe AS groups, respectively. In a matched‐control analysis, patients with mild‐to‐moderate AS had higher rates of impaired MFR (52.9% versus 39.9%; P =0.048) and major adverse cardiovascular event (11.8% versus 3.0%; P =0.002). Conclusions Despite lack of ischemia, as severity of AS increased, MFR decreased and GLS worsened, reflecting worse coronary microvascular health and myocardial remodeling. Positron emission tomography–derived MFR showed a significant independent correlation with left ventricular ejection fraction and GLS. Patients with prosthetic aortic valve showed a high prevalence of impaired MFR.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 infects its target cells via angiotensin converting enzyme 2 receptor, a membrane-bound protein found on the surface of many human cells. Treatment with angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin receptors blockers (ARB) has been shown to increase angiotensin converting enzyme 2 expression by up to 5-fold. Areas of uncertainty: These findings coupled with observations of the high prevalence and mortality among SARS-CoV-2-infected patients with underlying cardiovascular disease have led to a speculation that ACEIs/ARBs may predispose to higher risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, we systematically reviewed the literature and performed a meta-analysis of the association between prior use of ACEIs and ARBs and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or hospitalization due to COVID-19 disease. Data sources: We searched Ovid MEDLINE(R) and Epub Ahead of Print, In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations and Daily, Ovid Embase, Ovid Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Web of Science, Scopus, and Medrxiv.org preprint server until June 18, 2020. Therapeutic advances: Ten studies (6 cohorts and 4 case control) that enrolled a total of 23,892 patients and 853,369 controls were eligible for inclusion in our meta-analysis. One study was excluded from the analysis because of high risk of bias. Prior use of ACEIs was not associated with an increased risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 or hospitalization due to COVID-19 disease, odds ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval (0.91–1.05), I2 = 15%. Similarly, prior use of ARBs was not associated with an increased risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2, odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval (0.98–1.10), I2 = 0%. Conclusion: Cumulative evidence suggests that prior use of ACEIs or ARBs is not associated with a higher risk of COVID-19 or hospitalization due to COVID-19 disease. Our results provide a reassurance to the public not to discontinue prescribed ACEIs/ARBs because of fear of COVID-19.