Hijazi, Waseem

Summary Background Body composition is recognized as a major determinant of health outcomes, but its multidimensional nature makes clinical adoption challenging. We sought to develop and validate a body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality risk assessment, integrating variables of six body composition tissues. Methods We analyzed 28509 consecutive patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging with routine low-dose chest CT attenuation correction (CTAC) scans acquired during myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) at 12 centers across four countries. An artificial intelligence-based BCI was developed in a cohort of 15037 patients’ CTACs by integrating the CT-derived metrics of bone, skeletal muscle, and four adipose tissue compartments, coronary artery calcium score, and basic demographic variables (age, sex, BMI). The performance of BCI for mortality prediction was validated in an internal cohort of 6444 patients and an external cohort of 7028 patients by prognosis, calibration, net benefit, and explainability. Model-based simulation of tissue metrics modification was performed to evaluate estimated mortality risk reduction. Findings During a median of 3.5 (IQR [1.9, 5.1]) years, 4697 (16%) patients died. In the external testing cohort, the BCI demonstrated excellent discrimination for mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78 (95% CI [0.76, 0.79]) and Harrell’s concordance index 0.75 [0.73, 0.76]), calibration, and net benefit overall and across pre-specified subgroups stratified by patient characteristics and imaging protocols. Visceral adipose tissue attenuation was the most influential body composition measure, followed by skeletal muscle volume. Simulated improvement in body composition was associated with significant mortality risk reduction. Interpretation An index combining six body composition measures obtained opportunistically from routine chest CT provides robust mortality risk stratification. By converting complex body composition information into a single interpretable score, the BCI can facilitate clinical implementation of opportunistic CT biomarkers and guide individualized preventive strategies. Funding National Institute of Health Research in context Evidence before this study We searched PubMed and Google Scholar on July 7, 2026 for English language studies using the terms (“mortality prediction” OR “death prediction”) AND (“integrated body composition analysis” OR “body composition metrics integration”) AND (“predictive model” OR “model development”), and identified 41 publications describing predictive models incorporating body composition metrics. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled increasingly granular quantification of body composition from CT, with multiple tissues and tissue-specific metrics showing independent prognostic value for all-cause mortality (ACM) prediction. However, reported associations of body composition metrics with mortality risk were highly inconsistent or even contradictory across studies. This heterogeneity likely reflected the differences in study design or the inherent complexity of body composition analysis, such as the interaction among variables derived from multiple tissues. Thus, it is difficult to interpret body composition results reliably in clinical practice. We hypothesized that integrating multiple body composition metrics could achieve comprehensive and reliable prediction of mortality across patient populations. Added value of this study In this large international, multicenter longitudinal cohort study of 28509 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging across 12 sites in four countries, we developed and externally validated an artificial intelligence-based body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality prediction. The BCI integrated chest CT-derived metrics of six body composition tissue compartments – bone, skeletal muscle (SM), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), intramuscular adipose tissue (IMAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT), together with demographics (age, sex, BMI) and CT-derived coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, all derived automatically from routine low-dose attenuation correction CT scans without additional imaging or laboratory tests. In an external validation cohort of 7028 patients, the BCI achieved robust discrimination for mortality prediction, substantially outperforming a baseline model using demographics and calcium score alone, and exceeded the discriminative performance of prior body composition models. Performance was consistent across subgroups defined by sex, age, body mass index, cardiometabolic risk factors, imaging modality, and acquisition protocol, supporting generalizability across clinical settings. The BCI demonstrated excellent calibration and net clinical benefit. Explainability analysis identified visceral adipose tissue attenuation and skeletal muscle volume as the dominant contributors to mortality risk, offering tissue-specific therapeutic targets that complement generic weight-based metrics. Model-based simulations suggested that improvements in these specific compartments could reduce estimated mortality risk more effectively than equivalent changes in BMI alone, pointing toward precision therapeutic targets beyond weight reduction. Our study improved over previous literatures on body composition-based predictive models in one or more of the following ways: (1) we considered six types of body composition tissues while existing studies considered only three or less tissues, thus significantly higher granularity and improved ability to capture refined tissue interactions; (2) our model was rigorously validated in external sites, showing cross-site generalizability while most previous work lacked external validation; (3) our model achieved significant prediction performance improvement over previous body composition predictive models, offering better clinical outcomes prediction and facilitating the suitability for widespread clinical adoption; (4) our study was conducted with a large multi-center cohort across multiple countries, achieving statistical power and demonstrating reliability towards patients characteristics and imaging acquisition protocols while previous studies involved small single-center cohorts; (5) our model required only CT scans and basic demographics which were widely available in clinical routine while the existing models required dedicated laboratory tests or specialized imaging modalities, enhancing the applicability in routine clinical practice. Implications of all the available evidence BCI offers an explainable and clinically deployable tool for improved prediction of mortality risk from existing chest CT scans. Its use could inform updates to existing risk models, guide precision preventive strategies, and support development of therapeutics targeting specific body composition phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Aortic enlargement is a powerful predictor of dissection and rupture, yet it is rarely evaluated during routine myocardial perfusion imaging, despite the widespread availability of computed tomography (CT) attenuation correction scans. The aim of this study was to determine whether fully automated, opportunistically derived, artificial intelligence-based aortic measurements from myocardial perfusion imaging CT attenuation correction scans are associated with adverse outcomes in a large multicenter cohort. METHODS: CT attenuation correction scans from patients undergoing positron emission tomography/CT and single-photon emission CT/CT myocardial perfusion imaging across 10 centers were included. A deep learning model automatically segmented the thoracic aorta, and a postprocessing algorithm extracted maximum ascending and descending diameters. The aortic size index was calculated by indexing the diameter to body surface area. RESULTS: A total of 29 339 patients (56% men; median age, 66 years [interquartile range, 58–75 years]) were included. Over a median follow-up of 3.5 years (interquartile range, 1.9–5.0 years), 5083 (17.3%) patients died. Median ascending and descending aortic size index values were 1.8 cm/m 2 (interquartile range, 1.6–2.0) and 1.5 cm/m 2 (interquartile range, 1.4–1.6), respectively, with an increase with age and higher values in females. Elevated aortic size index thresholds (ascending >2.2 cm/m 2 ; descending >1.6 cm/m 2 ) were significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (ascending: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.07–1.26], P <0.001; descending: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.14–1.31]; P <0.001). Notably, the prognostic value of an abnormal aortic size index persisted independent of age, sex, and perfusion abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial intelligence can unlock previously unused information within routine myocardial perfusion imaging CT attenuation correction scans by rapidly and automatically quantifying aortic size at scale. Opportunistic aortic measurements derived from CT attenuation correction may serve as an adjunctive risk biomarker and could add prognostic value to standard myocardial perfusion imaging without additional imaging or radiation.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) attenuation correction scans are an intrinsic part of positron emission tomography (PET) myocardial perfusion imaging using PET/CT, but anatomic information is rarely derived from these ultralow-dose CT scans. We aimed to assess the association between deep learning-derived cardiac chamber volumes (right atrial, right ventricular, left ventricular, and left atrial) and mass (left ventricular) from these scans with myocardial flow reserve and heart failure hospitalization. METHODS: We included 18 079 patients with cardiac PET/CT from 6 sites. A deep learning model estimated cardiac chamber volumes and left ventricular mass from CT attenuation correction imaging. Associations between deep learning-derived CT mass and volumes with heart failure hospitalization and reduced myocardial flow reserve were assessed in a multivariable analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 1721 (9.5%) patients experienced heart failure hospitalization. Patients with 3 or 4 abnormal chamber volumes were 7× more likely to be hospitalized for heart failure compared with patients with normal volumes. In adjusted analyses, left atrial volume (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25 [95% CI, 1.19–1.30]), right atrial volume (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.23–1.35]), right ventricular volume (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.20–1.31]), left ventricular volume (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.23–1.35]), and left ventricular mass (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.18–1.32]) were independently associated with heart failure hospitalization. In multivariable analyses, left atrial volume (odds ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.0–1.19]) and ventricular mass (odds ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.6–1.17]) were independent predictors of reduced myocardial flow reserve. CONCLUSIONS: Deep learning–derived chamber volumes and left ventricular mass from CT attenuation correction were predictive of heart failure hospitalization and reduced myocardial flow reserve in patients undergoing cardiac PET perfusion imaging. This anatomic data can be routinely reported along with other PET/CT parameters to improve risk prediction.