Mason, Steve

ABSTRACT Introduction Positron emission tomography (PET) myocardial flow reserve (MFR) is a robust indicator of coronary vascular health and a strong predictor of cardiovascular risk. Clinical guidelines typically use fixed MFR thresholds (e.g., <2.0) to stratify risk, yet this approach overlooks individual variation, particularly by age and sex. We aimed to establish age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles and to evaluate their prognostic and predictive performance for cardiovascular risk assessment, in comparison with conventional fixed-threshold MFR approach. Methods Using data from the REFINE PET registry (24,820 patients from 12 sites), we measured PET MFR and derived age- and sex-adjusted MFR reference percentiles using quantile regression in patients without known coronary artery disease. All patients were categorized into percentile-based quartile groups. The primary outcome for prognostic and prediction analyses was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or heart-failure hospitalization. Time-to-event associations were evaluated using covariate-adjusted survival models, with cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HR) estimated at 1 and 5 years in the derivation dataset, an independent but similar validation dataset A, and a high-risk validation dataset B. Predictive performance for MACE was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and reclassification metrics, comparing percentile-based models with models using a fixed MFR threshold (<2.0). Results Among participants (mean age 66.5 years; median follow-up 3.6 years), age- and sex-adjusted MFR quartile groups were strong independent predictors of MACE, with adjusted HR increasing stepwise across quartile groups at both early and later follow-up. At 1 year, HR (95% CI) comparing the lowest to the highest quartile group were 4.06 (3.41–4.82) in the derivation cohort, 3.31 (2.32–4.71) in validation cohort A, and 2.35 (2.05–2.70) in validation cohort B. At 5 years, the corresponding HR were 2.18 (1.86–2.56), 1.77 (1.31–2.40), and 1.59 (1.36–1.86). Percentile-based models demonstrated consistently higher discrimination, better calibration, and greater net reclassification for MACE at both time points compared with fixed-threshold MFR models. Although 67.2% of patients had preserved MFR (>2.0), cardiovascular risk increased steadily across MFR percentiles even within this range. Conclusion Age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles provide a reliable, clinically actionable measure of vascular health, improving cardiovascular risk stratification by better capturing age- and sex-related heterogeneity in vascular risk. Compared with traditional fixed-threshold approaches, MFR percentiles demonstrate improved predictive performance for cardiovascular risk assessment across diverse patient populations. CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE What is new? In a large, multinational real-world registry of more than 24,000 patients undergoing PET MPI, we derived age- and sex-adjusted myocardial flow reserve (MFR) percentiles, establishing a lifespan-based reference framework with age-specific reference values. Age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles showed a strong, graded association with 1- and 5-year cardiovascular risk and demonstrated improved prognostic and predictive performance compared with fixed MFR thresholds and models without MFR across independent derivation and validation datasets, including a higher-risk cohort. Lower adjusted MFR percentiles were consistently associated with higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, including all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and heart-failure hospitalization. What are the clinical implications? Age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles provide a personalized, dynamic measure of coronary vascular health that improves cardiovascular risk stratification by accounting for age- and sex-related heterogeneity. A percentile-based approach may help clinicians better identify patients at elevated cardiovascular risk who may warrant closer monitoring or intensified preventive strategies, while avoiding unnecessary intervention in lower-risk individuals. By integrating macrovascular and microvascular dysfunction, age- and sex-adjusted MFR percentiles offer a clinically interpretable marker of vascular aging that may inform future research on aging biomarkers, novel therapeutics and cardiovascular risk assessment across the spectrum of atherosclerotic and microvascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) attenuation correction scans are an intrinsic part of positron emission tomography (PET) myocardial perfusion imaging using PET/CT, but anatomic information is rarely derived from these ultralow-dose CT scans. We aimed to assess the association between deep learning-derived cardiac chamber volumes (right atrial, right ventricular, left ventricular, and left atrial) and mass (left ventricular) from these scans with myocardial flow reserve and heart failure hospitalization. METHODS: We included 18 079 patients with cardiac PET/CT from 6 sites. A deep learning model estimated cardiac chamber volumes and left ventricular mass from CT attenuation correction imaging. Associations between deep learning-derived CT mass and volumes with heart failure hospitalization and reduced myocardial flow reserve were assessed in a multivariable analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 1721 (9.5%) patients experienced heart failure hospitalization. Patients with 3 or 4 abnormal chamber volumes were 7× more likely to be hospitalized for heart failure compared with patients with normal volumes. In adjusted analyses, left atrial volume (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25 [95% CI, 1.19–1.30]), right atrial volume (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.23–1.35]), right ventricular volume (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.20–1.31]), left ventricular volume (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.23–1.35]), and left ventricular mass (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.18–1.32]) were independently associated with heart failure hospitalization. In multivariable analyses, left atrial volume (odds ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.0–1.19]) and ventricular mass (odds ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.6–1.17]) were independent predictors of reduced myocardial flow reserve. CONCLUSIONS: Deep learning–derived chamber volumes and left ventricular mass from CT attenuation correction were predictive of heart failure hospitalization and reduced myocardial flow reserve in patients undergoing cardiac PET perfusion imaging. This anatomic data can be routinely reported along with other PET/CT parameters to improve risk prediction.