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Purpose Optimal early detection and prevention for breast cancer depend on accurate identification of women at increased risk. We present a risk prediction model that incorporates histologic features of biopsy tissues from women with benign breast disease (BBD) and compare its performance to the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT). Methods We estimated the age-specific incidence of breast cancer and death from the Mayo BBD cohort and then combined these estimates with a relative risk model derived from 377 patient cases with breast cancer and 734 matched controls sampled from the Mayo BBD cohort to develop the BBD–to–breast cancer (BBD-BC) risk assessment tool. We validated the model using an independent set of 378 patient cases with breast cancer and 728 matched controls from the Mayo BBD cohort and compared the risk predictions from our model with those from the BCRAT. Results The BBD-BC model predicts the probability of breast cancer in women with BBD using tissue-based and other risk factors. The concordance statistic from the BBD-BC model was 0.665 in the model development series and 0.629 in the validation series; these values were higher than those from the BCRAT (0.567 and 0.472, respectively). The BCRAT significantly underpredicted breast cancer risk after benign biopsy (P = .004), whereas the BBD-BC predictions were appropriately calibrated to observed cancers (P = .247). Conclusion We developed a model using both demographic and histologic features to predict breast cancer risk in women with BBD. Our model more accurately classifies a woman's breast cancer risk after a benign biopsy than the BCRAT.

BACKGROUND Based on its cytologic features, and its co‐occurrence with atypical hyperplasia and breast cancer, flat epithelial atypia (FEA) has been proposed as a precursor lesion on the pathway to the development of breast cancer. It is often referred to as an “atypical” or high‐risk lesion. However, to the authors' knowledge, the long‐term risk of breast cancer in women with FEA is undefined. METHODS Specimens with FEA were identified among excisional breast biopsies in the Mayo Clinic Benign Breast Disease Cohort, which includes 11,591 women who had benign biopsy findings at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota between 1967 and 2001. Breast cancer risk among subsets of patients with FEA and nonproliferative, proliferative, and atypical hyperplasia (AH) was assessed using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) compared with the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. RESULTS FEA was identified in 282 women (2.4%); 130 had associated AH (46%) and 152 (54%) were classified as having proliferative disease without atypia (PDWA). With median follow‐up of 16.8 years, the SIR for breast cancer in patients with AH plus FEA was 4.74 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 3.17‐6.81) versus 4.23 (95% CI, 3.44‐5.13) for those with AH without FEA ( P = .59). The SIR for patients with PDWA plus FEA was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.23‐3.19) versus 1.90 (95% CI, 1.72‐2.09) for patients with PDWA without FEA ( P = .76). CONCLUSIONS FEA is an uncommon finding in women with benign breast disease. FEA does not appear to convey an independent risk of breast cancer beyond that of the associated PDWA or AH. Cancer 2015;121:1548–1555 . © 2015 American Cancer Society .

Abstract Purpose: To analyze the effect of germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 on mortality in patients with ovarian cancer up to 10 years after diagnosis. Experimental Design: We used unpublished survival time data for 2,242 patients from two case–control studies and extended survival time data for 4,314 patients from previously reported studies. All participants had been screened for deleterious germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2. Survival time was analyzed for the combined data using Cox proportional hazard models with BRCA1 and BRCA2 as time-varying covariates. Competing risks were analyzed using Fine and Gray model. Results: The combined 10-year overall survival rate was 30% [95% confidence interval (CI), 28%–31%] for non-carriers, 25% (95% CI, 22%–28%) for BRCA1 carriers, and 35% (95% CI, 30%–41%) for BRCA2 carriers. The HR for BRCA1 was 0.53 at time zero and increased over time becoming greater than one at 4.8 years. For BRCA2, the HR was 0.42 at time zero and increased over time (predicted to become greater than 1 at 10.5 years). The results were similar when restricted to 3,202 patients with high-grade serous tumors and to ovarian cancer–specific mortality. Conclusions: BRCA1/2 mutations are associated with better short-term survival, but this advantage decreases over time and in BRCA1 carriers is eventually reversed. This may have important implications for therapy of both primary and relapsed disease and for analysis of long-term survival in clinical trials of new agents, particularly those that are effective in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Clin Cancer Res; 21(3); 652–7. ©2014 AACR.

Abstract Background:BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers are at substantially increased risk for developing breast and ovarian cancer. The incomplete penetrance coupled with the variable age at diagnosis in carriers of the same mutation suggests the existence of genetic and nongenetic modifying factors. In this study, we evaluated the putative role of variants in many candidate modifier genes. Methods: Genotyping data from 15,252 BRCA1 and 8,211 BRCA2 mutation carriers, for known variants (n = 3,248) located within or around 445 candidate genes, were available through the iCOGS custom-designed array. Breast and ovarian cancer association analysis was performed within a retrospective cohort approach. Results: The observed P values of association ranged between 0.005 and 1.000. None of the variants was significantly associated with breast or ovarian cancer risk in either BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, after multiple testing adjustments. Conclusion: There is little evidence that any of the evaluated candidate variants act as modifiers of breast and/or ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. Impact: Genome-wide association studies have been more successful at identifying genetic modifiers of BRCA1/2 penetrance than candidate gene studies. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(1); 308–16. ©2014 AACR.

Abstract Background: Women with benign breast disease (BBD) have increased breast cancer risk, and histologic features of the lesion stratify individual risk. We hypothesized that the concentration and type of terminal duct lobular units in BBD tissue is associated with future breast cancer risk. Methods: A nested case-control series of 770 breast cancer cases and 1273 age- and year of biopsy-matched controls was identified within a cohort of 13,647 women with BBD from 1967-2001 (median follow-up 15.3 years). One representative H&E slide from each biopsy was reviewed by a single pathologist, who recorded total # of lobules present, and # of fibrocystic lobules (total and # with epithelial proliferation). Samples were also evaluated for lobular involution and primary BBD histology. Lobule density (LD) was calculated as # of lobules/cm2 in each tissue section. Breast cancer associations with LD's (total, fibrocystic, proliferative) were examined with conditional logistic regression. Odds ratios are reported per 1 SD increase in LD. Results: Each LD measure was significantly associated with involution and primary BBD histology (p<0.0001 for each). Fibrocystic (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06-1.28) and proliferative (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.16-1.61) LD were each associated with case status (p≤0.001) but total LD did not reach significance (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.0-1.20; p=0.06). LD associations were somewhat attenuated after adjusting for involution (total OR 1.04 p=0.41; fibrocystic OR 1.13 p=0.02; proliferative OR 1.28 p=0.002) and primary BBD histology (total OR 1.04 p=0.49; fibrocystic OR 1.08 p=0.15; proliferative OR 1.18 p=0.07). Conclusions: The density of proliferative lobules in benign breast biopsy tissue is related to other BBD histologic features but may provide additional breast cancer risk stratification among women with proliferative BBD. Additional research will more fully evaluate the ability of this promising novel measure to predict breast cancer risk. Lobule Density Measures (lobules per square cm) All values are Medians Total Lobule Density Fibrocystic Lobule Density Proliferative Lobule Density Overall 17.5 4.5 0.7 Cases 18.1 4.9 1.3 Controls 17.0 4.2 0.4 Primary BBD Histology Nonproliferative disease 16 3.3 0 Proliferative disease 18.6 5.8 2.7 Atypical hyperplasia 20.9 6.2 3.3 Involution Category None 28.7 5.3 1.0 Partial 19.0 5 1.2 Complete 8.5 2.1 0 Citation Format: Amy C. Degnim, Lynn C. Hartmann, Tanya L. Hoskin, Marlene H. Frost, V Shane Pankratz, Derek C. Radisky, Lorelle L. Benetti, Celine M. Vachon, Teresa M. Allers, Robert A. Vierkant, Daniel W. Visscher. Density of breast lobules in benign breast tissue and association with future breast cancer risk. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 104th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2013 Apr 6-10; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2013;73(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 155. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2013-155

Abstract Enzymatic degradation of hyaluronan (HA), a key component of the extracellular matrix (ECM), can enhance tumor perfusion, improve delivery of chemotherapeutics, and enhance the effects of anti-tumor agents. HA accumulation has been correlated with local invasion, the presence of distal metastasis, higher tumor grade, and poorer overall survival. PEGPH20, a pegylated form of recombinant human hyaluronidase PH20, is an investigational therapeutic agent under clinical development for the treatment of patients with solid tumors that may accumulate HA. Preclinical studies have demonstrated that sustained HA removal, accomplished with PEGPH20, inhibits tumor growth and enhances chemotherapeutic activity in HA-rich xenografts and genetically engineered mouse tumor models. Twenty-six patients with advanced solid tumors were enrolled in a Phase 1 multi-center trial. Patients received weekly or twice weekly doses of IV PEGPH20 (0.5 - 5 μg/kg) for the first 4-week cycle, followed by once-weekly dosing for the subsequent 4-week cycles. Serial blood samples were drawn from each patient, and plasma concentrations were measured by an ultrasensitive hyaluronidase activity assay to assess PEGPH20 pharmacokinetics (PK). Plasma levels of HA catabolites were measured using a quantitative HPLC method to characterize PEGPH20 pharmacodynamics (PD). Other measures of PD activity were evaluated in selected patients, including DCE-MRI, DW-MRI, 18FDG-PET, textural analysis on CT, and histochemical staining of HA in tumor biopsies collected both before and after PEGPH20 treatment. Peak plasma PEGPH20 concentrations increased with dose, and plasma pharmacokinetics (PK) were well described by a linear PK model. Pre-treatment plasma HA levels were typically <1 μg/mL and increased in a dose-dependent fashion after PEGPH20 treatment. Increased plasma HA corresponded with decreased HA staining in patients with available tumor biopsies. DCE-MRI analysis indicated early (24-48 hr) and rapid increase in tumor perfusion compared to baseline in 4 patients with serial MRI assessments. Pharmacodynamic activity was also demonstrated when pre-treatment 18FDG-PET scans were compared with images collected at scheduled times after PEGPH20 dosing. Reduction in FDG uptake exceeding 25% was demonstrated in 3 of 4 patients after one cycle of treatment, consistent with a partial metabolic response. These data are consistent with the mechanism of action reported in preclinical models, and results support continued evaluation of PEGPH20 in combination with anti-tumor agents via modification of the ECM. Citation Format: Ping Jiang, Daniel C. Maneval, Ramesh K. Ramanathan, Jeffrey R. Infante, Mitesh Borad, Alberto Bessudo, Patricia LoRusso, Barry J. Sugarman, Deborah Carson, Marie A. Printz, Curtis B. Thompson, Paneer Selvam, Joy Zhu, Ronald Korn, H Michael Shepard, Gregory I. Frost. Phase 1 pharmacodyamic activity of multiple-dose PEGylated hyaluronidase PH20 (PEGPH20) in patients with solid tumors. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 104th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2013 Apr 6-10; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2013;73(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 3375. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2013-3375

Abstract Background: Age-related lobular involution (LI) is a physiological process, usually accelerated with menopause, in which the epithelial tissue of the breast gradually regresses. Our previous analysis of a cohort of more than 14,000 women who had a benign breast biopsy at the Mayo Clinic revealed that women who had undergone LI were at significantly reduced risk of subsequent breast cancer development. In our studies of postmenopausal women specifically, we found that more than 40% had not completed the process of LI, and that the increased breast cancer incidence in older women was strongly associated with incomplete LI. We sought to determine the potential protective mechanistic effects of lobular involution. Methods: We generated primary human mammary epithelial cell lines (HMECs) from breast biopsies of women who showed no LI (N = 6), partial LI (N = 7), or complete LI (N = 6). These cell lines were analyzed for proliferation in culture and profiled for genomic signatures using Affymetrix gene arrays. We also analyzed RNA isolated from a cohort of archived formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) benign breast biopsy samples from postmenopausal women who had either completed the process of LI (N = 4) or who had not initiated LI (N = 8) for genomic signatures using Whole-Genome DASL Assays. Results: We found that LI was associated with decreased cellular proliferation and inhibition of processes associated with tumor development and progression. Specifically, we found that HMECs derived from benign breast biopsies in which LI was not evident showed increased proliferation and elevated expression of Twist (p = 0.002), a transcription factor associated with epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and breast cancer development. We are assessing differentially expressed genes for association with breast cancer risk using a nested case:control group of benign breast biopsies from women in our cohort who subsequently developed breast cancer (N = 85) vs those who did not (N = 142) and for whom LI status at the time of initial biopsy was known. Conclusions: LI may decrease cancer risk through inhibition of key tumorigenic processes. Identification of processes associated with the physiologic risk reduction seen with LI may provide insight into novel avenues for risk reduction. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-06-01.

Abstract Background: Fibroadenoma (FA) is a relatively common benign breast tumor that can occur in women of any age, with a peak incidence during the second and third decades. The only previous study of this lesion reported that FAs are associated with a 2.2 times increased risk of developing invasive breast cancer (BC) compared to matched controls [1]. This relative risk may increase to 3.1 among patients with complex FA, and remains elevated for decades after diagnosis. However, this study did not thoroughly account for other forms of concomitant risk factors. Our investigative team sought to examine breast cancer risk among women with non-complex and complex FA, overall and stratified by other BC risk factors. Materials and Methods: The study cohort included women between ages 18 to 85 in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease (BBD) Cohort who underwent excisional breast biopsy between 1967and1991 and were found to have a FA. FA was defined histologically as a combination of epithelial and stromal proliferation. Complex FA was defined as FA associated with any of the following features: sclerosing adenosis, epithelial calcifications, papillary apocrine change, and microcysts greater than 3.0 mm. The primary endpoint was a diagnosis of BC, determined using the Mayo medical record and questionnaire information from study participants. A single breast pathologist, blinded to the initial diagnosis and clinical outcome, performed pathology review. Observed vs. expected BC risk across levels of FA was assessed via standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), using age-stratified incidence rates from the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Analyses were carried out overall and within subgroups of involution status (none, partial, complete) and overall histology (non-proliferative disease [NP], proliferative disease without atypia [PDWA] or atypical hyperplasia [AH]). Results: Of 9097 women in the Mayo BBD Cohort, FA were identified in 2139- non-complex in 1903 (20.9%) and complex in 236 (2.6%). The greatest proportion of FA occurred in the 40–69 age range. The mean ages for women with non-complex FA and complex FA were 45.7 and 50.2 years respectively. The SIR of breast cancer in the overall BBD cohort was 1.5 (95% CI [1.4–1.6]). The SIR among women with non-complex FA was 1.5 (95% CI [1.3–1.8]), and for complex FA increased to 2.41 (95% CI [1.7–3.4]). However, women with complex FA were more likely to have other concomitant high-risk histologic features such as PDWA and incomplete involution. In stratified analyses accounting for involution status and PDWA, complex FA did not demonstrate an independent increase in BC risk. Conclusion: Complex FA does not confer an increased risk for BC beyond other established histologic features. Therefore, women with complex FA should be managed based upon a risk level consistent with the major histologic category of PDWA and/or AH. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-01-08.

Abstract Background: Optimal early detection and prevention strategies for breast cancer are predicated on our ability to accurately identify women at increased risk for disease. Current breast cancer risk prediction models rely on clinical and epidemiologic features. As demonstrated with other cancers, such as those of the cervix and colon, cancer risk assessment is enhanced when the tissue at risk is examined for evidence of premalignant abnormalities. Here, we present a multivariate model for individualized breast cancer risk prediction that incorporates tissue features identified from biopsies from women with benign breast disease (BBD). Methods: We used our cohort of more than 9000 women diagnosed with BBD at the Mayo Clinic from 1967–1991, and identified a nested case:control series of 377 women who developed cancer (cases) matched with 734 women who did not (controls). We identified a set of variables that either alone or in two-way interactions contributed to a multivariable risk prediction model. We combined this relative risk model with the baseline incidence of breast cancer and the baseline hazard of death from our full BBD cohort to develop a risk prediction tool that computes absolute risk estimates for breast cancer. We calculated 5-year risk predictions for these cases and controls using our model and using the Gail model and compared c-statistics from these risk predictions. We validated our model using an independent set of 378 breast cancer cases and 728 matched controls drawn from our BBD cohort. Results: Cases and controls in the model development data set differed significantly on a number of features when examined individually. Those included in a multivariable relative risk model for breast cancer among women with BBD are shown below. After including interactions between lobular involution, and histologic impression, with age at first live birth/number of children, and degree of involution with sclerosing adenosis, we devised a model that predicts the absolute risk of breast cancer. Predicted five-year risks in the model development series, we observed a c-statistic of 0.66, higher than the c-statistic of 0.61 for the Gail model. With risk prediction estimates from our validation series of cases and matched controls, the c-statistic of our model decreased to 0.59 and the c-statistic for the Gail model was 0.55. Conclusion: We have identified an initial risk prediction model for breast cancer in women with BBD. The identified model includes basic demographic information as well as a number of histologic features of the tissue samples. Its initial performance is promising, providing improved discrimination over the Gail model in our replication data set. Further work is needed to identify features which might provide additional predictive information for breast cancer risk. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-12-03.