Yoshino, Takayuki

Abstract Background Synthetic control arms (SCAs) derived from historical trial data can complement randomized controlled trials (RCTs), particularly in oncology where feasibility, ethical, and cost constraints may limit conventional trial designs. However, their validity for overall survival (OS) remains uncertain. We evaluated the feasibility and limitations of constructing SCAs from the ARCAD metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) database across multiple treatment lines. Methods Seven landmark RCTs representing first-, second-, and third-line settings were selected. External control arms were constructed from ARCAD individual patient-level data using propensity score matching based on key clinical and biological variables from a validated ARCAD prognostic score, with adjustment for geographic region and time era when needed. A prespecified two-step benchmarking framework assessed: (1) control-arm OS reproducibility and (2) virtual trial comparisons between matched synthetic controls and original RCT experimental arms. Agreement was evaluated using hazard ratios (HRs) and Z-tests. Results A total of 28,022 patients met the inclusion criteria. ARCAD-derived SCAs were successfully constructed for all selected RCTs and closely reproduced control-arm OS. After matching, baseline characteristics were well balanced, with minimal differences between included and excluded patients. Virtual trials showed concordant treatment-effect estimates with the original RCTs, with a median absolute HR deviation of 0.05 and no significant differences by Z-tests (P>.05). Survival outcomes were consistently reproduced across treatment lines. Conclusion ARCAD-derived SCAs reliably reproduced control-arm OS and benchmark treatment-effect estimates from landmark RCTs in mCRC. Despite limitations related to residual confounding and missing data, this framework supports benchmarking, trial design, and exploratory analyses when conventional control arms are impractical.

PURPOSE Homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) is a key determinant of sensitivity to DNA-damaging agents; however, its genomic characterization in colorectal cancer (CRC) remains limited. This study investigated whether low RNA expression of homologous recombination (HR) genes identifies patients with metastatic CRC who derive survival benefit from oxaliplatin- or irinotecan-based therapy. METHODS A total of 22,957 metastatic CRC samples were subjected to DNA and RNA sequencing (Caris Life Sciences, Dallas, TX). Patients with microsatellite instability–high or pathogenic HR gene mutations were excluded to define a HR-proficient cohort. Overall survival (OS) was compared between patients with low (bottom 25%) versus high (top 25%) RNA expression of HR genes after oxaliplatin or irinotecan exposure. Validation was performed in the PARADIGM phase III trial cohort (n = 262) of first-line modified fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin-treated patients with available RNAseq data. RESULTS In the discovery cohort, low expression of core HR genes correlated with significantly longer OS after oxaliplatin or irinotecan exposure, specifically RAD51 (43.0 v 36.3 months; P < .005) and BLM (42.9 v 34.2 months; P < .005). Similar associations were observed for RAD51 (28.1 v 22.9 months; P = .02) and BLM (29.1 v 23.2 months; P < .005) in irinotecan-treated patients. In the PARADIGM validation cohort, low BLM expression was associated with improved OS (41.5 v 22.4 months; HR = 0.52; P = .002), whereas RAD51 showed a favorable but nonsignificant trend. These findings remained significant after adjustment for treatment arm, tumor sidedness, and metastatic burden. CONCLUSION Low BLM RNA expression is associated with improved survival after treatment with DNA-damaging agents, whereas low RAD51 expression shows a favorable but nonsignificant trend. These findings are exploratory and suggest that RNA-based HR gene expression may warrant further investigation as a potential prognostic biomarker in metastatic CRC.

PURPOSE Several lines of treatment can be used sequentially in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. We investigated the evolution of patient/tumor characteristics and their prognostic impact across treatment lines to develop an overall prognostic score (OPS). PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 48 randomized trials were analyzed. The end point was overall survival (from random assignment to death). Missing data were imputed. The complete data set was then separated into construction (80%) and validation sets (20%). The Cox's model was used to define risk groups for survival using the OPS. The discrimination capability was assessed in each treatment-line via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices. Internal validation was done in the validation set. RESULTS A total of 37,560 patients (26,974 in first-line [1L], 7,693 in second-line [2L], and 2,893 in third-line [3L]) were analyzed. Some clinical, biological, and molecular characteristics of patients/tumors included in therapeutic trials evolve over the lines. Seven independent prognostic variables were retained in the final multivariate model common to all lines: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, platelet count, WBC/absolute neutrophil count ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, and the number of metastatic sites. The OPS was used to define four patient subgroups with significantly different prognoses in 1L, 2L, and 3L, separately, with adequate C-indices: 0.65, 0.66, and 0.69 in the construction set and 0.65, 0.66, and 0.68 in the validation set, respectively. The OPS was not predictive, with 3L drugs ( v placebo) or subsequent line (2L/1L or 3L/2L) extending survival in all prognostic groups. CONCLUSION The same prognostic model using practical variables can be used before all treatment lines. The OPS could better stratify patients in future clinical trials and help to therapeutic decision in routine practice.

Abstract Background Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response have emerged as potential prognostic indicators in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). However, their associations with overall survival, progression-free survival (PFS), and postprogression survival in patients receiving anti–epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies or bevacizumab remain unclear. Methods We analyzed 3219 treatment-naive patients with RAS wild-type metastatic CRC from 8 randomized studies (CRYSTAL, OPUS, PRIME, CAIRO2, CALGB80405, WJOG4407G, ATOM, PARADIGM) in the Aid and Research in Digestive Cancerology database. Early tumor shrinkage was defined as a 20% or more reduction in tumor size at 8 ± 2 weeks, whereas depth of response was assessed by maximum tumor shrinkage at nadir. Cox regression models evaluated the associations of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response with overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival, adjusting for confounders. A 2-sided test was conducted with a significance level of .05. Results Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response substantially stratified overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival outcomes across all treatment groups. Early tumor shrinkage positivity was associated with improved overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival in anti-EGFR and bevacizumab-based therapies, with a trend toward better outcomes in the anti-EGFR group. The depth of response analysis revealed optimal cutoff values of 0.55 for anti-EGFR–based therapy and 0.47 for bevacizumab-based therapy to achieve a median overall survival of approximately 32 months. Conclusions Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response serve as valuable prognostic markers in RAS wild-type metastatic CRC, particularly for patients treated with anti-EGFR antibodies. These findings highlight the potential role of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response in guiding treatment strategies and improving outcomes for patients with CRC.

PURPOSE This study aimed to investigate the clinicomolecular profiles and the efficacy of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-targeted therapy in HER2 -amplified biliary tract cancer (BTC). METHODS This study was an international collaboration that used combined data from the prospective SCRUM-Japan GOZILA and MONSTAR-SCREEN in Japan and retrospective reviews in the United States; patients with advanced BTC who had received systemic therapy were included. The clinicomolecular profiles were evaluated in an exploratory cohort, whereas the efficacy of HER2-targeted therapy was assessed in a biomarker-selected cohort. RESULTS Of the 439 patients in the exploratory cohort, 43 (10%) had HER2 amplification. The frequencies of coalterations were higher in patients with HER2 amplification versus patients without HER2 amplification including HER2 mutations (26% v 5%, P < .001), TP53 mutations (84% v 61%, P = .003), and BRAF amplification (9% v 2%, P = .030). There were no KRAS mutations identified in patients with HER2- amplified BTC. No significant difference in overall survival (OS) was observed between patients with and without HER2 amplification (median, 17.7 v 16.9 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.40]). Of the 60 patients with HER2 -amplified BTC in the biomarker-selected cohort (43 from Japan and 17 from the United States), the OS was significantly longer in 29 patients who received HER2-targeted therapy than in those who did not receive HER2-targeted therapy (median, 24.3 v 12.1 months; HR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.23 to 0.82]). Multivariate analysis identified HER2-targeted therapy as an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 0.29 [95% CI, 0.14 to 0.58]; P < .001). CONCLUSION HER2 amplification was found in 10% of advanced BTC and was not identified as an independent prognostic factor for OS. Patients with HER2 -amplified BTC derive significant benefit from HER2-targeted therapy.

PURPOSE The adjuvant treatment for stage III colon cancer (CC) is chemotherapy combining fluoropyrimidine (FP) and oxaliplatin (OX). FP regimen plus OX (FPOX) may benefit in high-risk stage II CC. We performed a pooled analysis of pivotal MOSAIC and C-07 studies evaluating FPOX for the treatment of high-risk stage II CC according to prognostic factors, number of high-risk factors, and current clinicopathologic risk classification on the basis of T stage, tumor perforation, and number of lymph nodes examined. PATIENTS AND METHODS One thousand five hundred and ninety-five patients with stage II CC receiving FP or FPOX were pooled. The overall survival (OS) benefit of OX was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and unadjusted Cox models stratified by study. Three thousand and fifty-nine patients with stage III CC were used only for interaction tests between the allocated chemotherapy and stage. RESULTS In the pooled analysis of stage II patients, independent prognostic factors in multivariable analysis were sex, age, perforation/obstruction, and tumor sidedness. There was a significant interaction in OS between stage and allocated chemotherapy with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.03 for stage II (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.29; P = .813) and 0.82 for stage III (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.92; P = .001; P int = .073). There was no benefit from the addition of OX to FP for any of the prognostic factors. The number of high-risk factors tested was not predictive of OX benefit. According to the currently agreed clinicopathologic risk classification, no OS benefit of OX was observed, as HR was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.63 to 1.18; P = .349). CONCLUSION No OS benefit of adjuvant OX was found in high-risk stage II CC, regardless of the definition used to characterize tumors as having a high risk for recurrence. Hence, our analysis suggests that OX should not be the standard of care for adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II CC, even in high-risk patients.

PURPOSE A number of studies suggest that older patients may have reduced or no benefit from the addition of oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidines as adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer (CC). MATERIALS AND METHODS We studied the prognostic impact of age, as well as treatment adherence/toxicity patterns according to age, in patients with stage III CC who received 3 or 6 months of infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin/capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) on the basis of data collected from trials from the ACCENT and IDEA databases. Associations between age and time to recurrence (TTR), disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), survival after recurrence (SAR), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed by a Cox model or a competing risk model, stratified by studies and adjusted for sex, performance status, T and N stage, and year of enrollment. RESULTS A total of 17,909 patients were included; 24% of patients were age older than 70 years (n = 4,340). Patients age ≥70 years had higher rates of early treatment discontinuation. Rates of grade ≥3 adverse events were similar between those older and younger than 70 years, except for diarrhea and neutropenia that were more frequent in older patients treated with CAPOX (14.2% v 11.2%; P = .01 and 12.1% v 9.6%; P = .04, respectively). In multivariable analysis, TTR was not significantly different between patients <70 years and those ≥70 years, but DFS, OS, SAR, and CSS were significantly shorter in those patients ≥70 years. CONCLUSION In patients ≥70 years with stage III CC fit enough to be enrolled in clinical trials, oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy was well tolerated and led to similar TTR compared with younger patients, suggesting similar efficacy. TTR may be a more appropriate end point for efficacy in this patient population.

PURPOSE Oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage III colon cancer (CC) for 6 months remains a standard in high-risk stage III patients. Data are lacking as to whether early discontinuation of all treatment (ETD) or early discontinuation of oxaliplatin (EOD) could worsen the prognosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS We studied the prognostic impact of ETD and EOD in patients with stage III CC from the ACCENT/IDEA databases, where patients were planned to receive 6 months of infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin or capecitabine plus oxaliplatin. ETD was defined as discontinuation of treatment and EOD as discontinuation of oxaliplatin only before patients had received a maximum of 75% of planned cycles. Association between ETD/EOD and overall survival and disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed by Cox models adjusted for established prognostic factors. RESULTS Analysis of ETD and EOD included 10,447 (20.9% with ETD) and 7,243 (18.8% with EOD) patients, respectively. Compared with patients without ETD or EOD, patients with ETD or EOD were statistically more likely to be women, with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 1, and for ETD, older with a lower body mass index. In multivariable analyses, ETD was associated with a decrease in disease-free survival and overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61, P < .001 and HR, 1.73, P < .001), which was not the case for EOD (HR, 1.07, P = .3 and HR, 1.13, P = .1). However, patients who received < 50% of the planned cycles of oxaliplatin had poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION In patients treated with 6 months of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy for stage III CC, ETD was associated with poorer oncologic outcomes. However, this was not the case for EOD. These data favor discontinuing oxaliplatin while continuing fluoropyrimidine in individuals with significant neurotoxicity having received > 50% of the planned 6-month chemotherapy.

Abstract Background We evaluated the time to progression (TTP) and survival outcomes of second-line therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer among adults aged 70 years and older compared with younger adults following progression on first-line clinical trials. Methods Associations between clinical and disease characteristics, time to initial progression, and rate of receipt of second-line therapy were evaluated. TTP and overall survival (OS) were compared between older and younger adults in first- and second-line trials by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, number of metastatic sites and presence of metastasis in the lung, liver, or peritoneum. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Older adults comprised 16.4% of patients on first-line trials (870 total older adults aged &gt;70 years; 4419 total younger adults aged ≤70 years, on first-line trials). Older adults and those with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status &gt;0 were less likely to receive second-line therapy than younger adults. Odds of receiving second-line therapy decreased by 11% for each additional decade of life in multivariable analysis (odds ratio = 1.11, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 1.21, P = .01). Older and younger adults enrolled in second-line trials experienced similar median TTP and median OS (median TTP = 5.1 vs 5.2 months, respectively; median OS = 11.6 vs 12.4 months, respectively). Conclusions Older adults were less likely to receive second-line therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer, though we did not observe a statistical difference in survival outcomes vs younger adults following second-line therapy. Further study should examine factors affecting decisions to treat older adults with second-line therapy. Inclusion of geriatric assessment may provide better criteria regarding the risks and benefits of second-line therapy.

PURPOSE Early-onset (EO) colorectal cancer (CRC, age < 50 years) incidence is increasing. Decisions on optimal adjuvant therapy should consider treatment adherence, adverse events, and expected outcomes in a population with life expectancy longer than later-onset (LO) CRC (age ≥ 50 years). MATERIALS AND METHODS Individual patient data from six trials in the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy database were analyzed. Characteristics, treatment adherence, and adverse events in stage II or III EO-CRC and LO-CRC were compared. To reduce confounders of non–cancer-related deaths because of age or comorbidities, time to recurrence (3-year relapse-free rate) and cancer-specific survival (5-year cancer-specific mortality rate) were considered. RESULTS Out of 16,349 patients, 1,564 (9.6%) had EO-CRC. Compared with LO-CRC, EO-CRC had better performance status (86% v 80%, P < .01), similar T stage (% T1-3/T4: 76/24 v 77/23, P = .97), higher N2 disease rate (24% v 22%, P < .01), more likely to complete the planned treatment duration (83.2% v 78.2%, P < .01), and received a higher treatment dose intensity, especially with 6-month regimens. Gastrointestinal toxicity was more common in EO-CRC; hematologic toxicity was more frequent in LO-CRC. Compared with LO-CRC, significantly worse cancer-specific outcomes were demonstrated especially in high-risk stage III EO-CRC: lower 3-year relapse-free rate (54% v 65%; hazard ratio [HR] 1.33; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.55; P value < .001) and higher 5-year cancer-specific mortality rate (24% v 20%; HR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.47; P value < .06). In this subgroup, no difference was observed with 3 or 6 months of therapy, with equally poor disease-free survival rates (57% v 56%; HR 0.97; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.29; P value = .85). CONCLUSION Young age is negatively prognostic in high-risk stage III CRC and associated with significantly higher relapse rate; this is despite better treatment adherence and higher administered treatment intensity, suggesting more aggressive disease biology.